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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 10:41:37 GMT -8
So is it the New Year yet and time for the earnings runup? Or will there be an earnings runup this year? Best guesses anyone? I'm thinking a mild run up to the 550 range, then it'll all come down to earnings for where we go after that.
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Post by alice on Dec 28, 2012 10:42:24 GMT -8
What you can do from a risk/return perspective is crazy at these prices. Just sold April 650/660 put spreads for $9.23. Risk $77.00 for a potential $923 gain per contract. sell to open Apr 660 buy to open Apr 650 1 contract cost $77.00 If aapl is under 650 in Apri, gain is 923. Max loss is 77. Is this correct?
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Post by tuffett on Dec 28, 2012 10:44:15 GMT -8
It APPEARS AMZN had a great holiday: On the peak day, Nov. 26, customers ordered more than 26.5 million items worldwide across all product categories, which is a record-breaking 306 items per second. Amazon customers purchased more than one toy per second on mobile devices. Amazon customers purchased enough copies of the “Fifty Shades” trilogy by E.L. James, including “Fifty Shades of Grey,” “Fifty Shades Darker,” “Fifty Shades Freed” and the trilogy box set, to create a stack 445 times taller than the Space Needle. The cumulative weight of the “Bond 50” Blu-ray sets purchased by Amazon customers this holiday season would be 800 times the weight of Daniel Craig. If each customer that purchased a copy of Just Dance 4 played the game for one hour, the total number of calories burned would equal half a million slices of fruitcake. Amazon customers purchased enough TVs to cover the field of every NFL stadium. Amazon customers purchased enough vinyl copies of The Beatles albums that if laid flat would extend 20 times the length of Abbey Road in London. The Amazon MP3 store has sold enough music for everyone at Woodstock ’69 to jam out to another three days of music for peace and love. If you stacked every Christmas Story Leg Lamp purchased by Amazon customers this holiday season, the height would reach the top of Mt. Everest. Amazon customers purchased enough sports team garden gnomes to fill every seat in Madison Square Garden. Amazon customers purchased enough Angry Birds plush toys to stretch 285 times the height of the tallest tree in the world, located in California’s Redwood Forest. Amazon’s third-party sellers sold enough Lindt truffles to serve one to every traveler passing through Chicago O’Hare Airport over a weekend. Amazon’s third-party sellers sold enough HDMI cables to make three round-trips to the International Space Station. Amazon customers added more than 15 million toys to their Wish Lists this holiday season. FROM HERE!HERE is an ANALYSISAnd the kicker....Amazon broke even
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Post by Lstream on Dec 28, 2012 10:51:28 GMT -8
What you can do from a risk/return perspective is crazy at these prices. Just sold April 650/660 put spreads for $9.23. Risk $77.00 for a potential $923 gain per contract. sell to open Apr 660 buy to open Apr 650 1 contract cost $77.00 If aapl is under 660 in Apri, gain is 923. Max loss is 77. Is this correct? If Apple is over $660, gain is $923. Under $650, loss is $77, which is max loss. Just did a similar small trade on a July 740/750. Except sold that one for 930. So if Apple is under 740 in July, I lose $70 per contract. If it is over $750, I make $930 per contract.
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Post by lulli on Dec 28, 2012 11:12:39 GMT -8
sell to open Apr 660 buy to open Apr 650 1 contract cost $77.00 If aapl is under 660 in Apri, gain is 923. Max loss is 77. Is this correct? If Apple is over $660, gain is $923. Under $650, loss is $77, which is max loss. Just did a similar small trade on a July 740/750. Except sold that one for 930. So if Apple is under 740 in July, I lose $70 per contract. If it is over $750, I make $930 per contract. Isn't it likely that somebody will exercise your short leg and then you must get rid of the spread much too early, so that you will likely never see those gains? I am not sure. Just asking....
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Post by Lstream on Dec 28, 2012 11:28:00 GMT -8
If Apple is over $660, gain is $923. Under $650, loss is $77, which is max loss. Just did a similar small trade on a July 740/750. Except sold that one for 930. So if Apple is under 740 in July, I lose $70 per contract. If it is over $750, I make $930 per contract. Isn't it likely that somebody will exercise your short leg and then you must get rid of the spread much too early, so that you will likely never see those gains? I am not sure. Just asking.... I don't know the probability of this happening, since I am not a high frequency trader. With that said, I have been assigned twice so far. Both times about a week before expiry, when I was staring at max loss. On many other occasions, I have exited well before expiry for close to max gains. So you have identified a risk to my max win, but I don't know how likely the risk is.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 11:55:12 GMT -8
Try walking a few blocks west to Ludlow or Broome or Orchard Street or Mott or Mulberry or to SOHO or TriBeCa - West Village - it is all about iPhones. The only area I see Samesung is in the Chinatown area....I think you are focusing on a small area altho not sure what you are calling the lower East Side at this point. And completely agree on the cell phone plans ! I agree in the hipper areas like ludlow and orchard it's iphones but those are kids that come over to the area to party. I'm talking about "townies" or whatever city people call long time residents of the area. Like Clinton Street, Pitt Street, Attorney Street etc.. The old school puerto ricans and african americans. The tenemant with two grandpas, a girl in her 20s and two little kids all living in a 2 bedroom. That type of lower east side. (disclaimer, I live on clinton street but grew up in jersey) All really nice people around here for the most part but just don't have any money. I hear ya but you are talking about a very small area of a huge city - and to be honest - I know people in that area and they have money to buy an iPhone (they actually do have iPhones). Truth is that you allocate your money to where you want to spend it or you possibly do without in other areas to get other things you want. I refuse to believe that someone doesn't have enough money for an iPhone but can get enough money to buy several pair of the lastest/hot sneakers or shoes for hundreds of dollars each. I just don't agree with the observation. Much of that area has been gentrified already...there are tons of transplants there. Anyway - just my opinion (I grew up right around there so I know that area very, very well.)
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 12:18:09 GMT -8
This is like pulling teeth today. Come on AAPL, lets have a last 40 minute rocketship to the moon.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 12:29:38 GMT -8
So far so good with this run.
516 > 524 > 534
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Post by prazan on Dec 28, 2012 12:41:54 GMT -8
Does any data exist regarding the socio-economic diferences between iOS and Android users? I ask this in relation to the ongoing discussion of who owns Android vs Apple devices, and the anecdotal reports that the more economically advantaged neighborhoods trend more toward iPhones. That an economic difference exists might explain usage differences. For example, most e-commerce is conducted on iOS, which makes total sense if the folks with money are using iPhones, and the folks without as much disposable income are using Android. I'd also be interested in seeing education levels by device type. Why are iPhone and iPad users more active in using their devices? Part of the explanation might be the usability of the devices themselves, but I wouldn't discount the demographics of the users.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 12:50:31 GMT -8
I tend to think there's a feedback loop among demographics, retail store placement, customers. Demographics creates customers creates stores creates customers. Demographics, college stores and CompUSA stores were the start. This applies only to the USA.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 12:52:23 GMT -8
Couldn't save that fiscal cliff news until after the bell huh?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 12:53:25 GMT -8
This is like pulling teeth today. Come on AAPL, lets have a last 40 minute rocketship to the moon. Rumor-mongers crashed the rocketship.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 12:55:04 GMT -8
Couldn't save that fiscal cliff news until after the bell huh? These days I find it increasingly difficult to distinguish genuine, truthful news with completely fabricated bullshit put out to serve someone's agenda.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 28, 2012 12:55:06 GMT -8
If Apple is over $660, gain is $923. Under $650, loss is $77, which is max loss. Just did a similar small trade on a July 740/750. Except sold that one for 930. So if Apple is under 740 in July, I lose $70 per contract. If it is over $750, I make $930 per contract. Isn't it likely that somebody will exercise your short leg and then you must get rid of the spread much too early, so that you will likely never see those gains? I am not sure. Just asking.... clearing up some things: its a bull put spread. you buy to open the 650 put, and sell to open the 660 put. This nets you $923 (credit). If the spread fully wins, apple is over 660 by then and the spread is worth zero, so you 'buy it back' for zero, and keep your $923 (gain). If the spread fully loses, which is when Apple is under 650 at that point, you have to buy the spread back for $1000. But since you were credited $923 at the start of it, your net loss is only $77. In terms of getting exercised early, i dont really know how it works, but i havent seen that happen yet and i've had some far out bull put spreads. I thought having the spread protects you from getting exercised, but don't quote me on that. ps- awesome sell off due to news that obama didn't have a new plan at this meeting. sweet
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Post by Lstream on Dec 28, 2012 13:00:50 GMT -8
Isn't it likely that somebody will exercise your short leg and then you must get rid of the spread much too early, so that you will likely never see those gains? I am not sure. Just asking.... clearing up some things: its a bull put spread. you buy to open the 650 put, and sell to open the 660 put. This nets you $923 (credit). If the spread fully wins, apple is over 660 by then and the spread is worth zero, so you 'buy it back' for zero, and keep your $923 (gain). If the spread fully loses, which is when Apple is under 650 at that point, you have to buy the spread back for $1000. But since you were credited $923 at the start of it, your net loss is only $77. In terms of getting exercised early, i dont really know how it works, but i havent seen that happen yet and i've had some far out bull put spreads. I thought having the spread protects you from getting exercised, but don't quote me on that. Thanks for the clarification. Spreads don't stop you from getting exercised. It has happened to me twice with spreads.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 13:04:25 GMT -8
ps- awesome sell off due to news that obama didn't have a new plan at this meeting. I'm no fan of Obama, but is that the genuine truth, or just some shit someone made up for the purpose of dropping the market into the close? Who is the source? Any "news" item claiming to be from "sources" but not divulging those sources is just as likely to be a total fabrication.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 13:07:24 GMT -8
If the buyer exercises the 660 put they purchased, they get to sell you 100 shares at 660. There's no benefit to them to doing this over just selling the put they own. They net the same profit either way, and don't have to come up with 100 shares to sell to you if they didn't own them to begin with.
It's entirely unlike having a call exercised on you, where you have to come up with the 100 shares to sell to the buyer of the call. The buyer presumably exercised the call to collect the dividend.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 28, 2012 13:09:38 GMT -8
ps- awesome sell off due to news that obama didn't have a new plan at this meeting. I'm no fan of Obama, but is that the genuine truth, or just some shit someone made up for the purpose of dropping the market into the close? Who is the source? Any "news" item claiming to be from "sources" but not divulging those sources is just as likely to be a total fabrication. i totally agree. i'm not upset that obama didn't have a new plan. I don't think he's even supposed to. I'm upset that some guy comes on and reports that his source says this, and then the markets tank due to that. I guess on the flipside, it's about as dumb as what happened yesterday saying what amounts to, 'OMG people who were elected to work, are going back to work!' and causing a 150pt rally into the close.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 13:10:54 GMT -8
ps- awesome sell off due to news that obama didn't have a new plan at this meeting. I'm no fan of Obama, but is that the genuine truth, or just some shit someone made up for the purpose of dropping the market into the close? Who is the source? Any "news" item claiming to be from "sources" but not divulging those sources is just as likely to be a total fabrication. Probably the latter. Let's create an AFB twitter account, have us all follow it, and then just make shit up from "sources" to manipulate the stock. We can release the "news" in the pre-market after having made our trades at the end of the previous trading day. Doesn't seem illegal to me. There are plenty of rumor sites out there who make shit up for page views. It wouldn't surprise me if people were trading on that information ahead of time too.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 13:13:04 GMT -8
Futures tanking after hours. Good grief, can we end this year already?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 13:15:03 GMT -8
I'm no fan of Obama, but is that the genuine truth, or just some shit someone made up for the purpose of dropping the market into the close? Who is the source? Any "news" item claiming to be from "sources" but not divulging those sources is just as likely to be a total fabrication. Probably the latter. Let's create an AFB twitter account, have us all follow it, and then just make shit up from "sources" to manipulate the stock. We can release the "news" in the pre-market after having made our trades at the end of the previous trading day. Doesn't seem illegal to me. There are plenty of rumor sites out there who make shit up for page views. It wouldn't surprise me if people were trading on that information ahead of time too. Yes, but we'd end up going to jail for stock manipulation. You can be sure that whoever leaked/fabricated this won't.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 13:17:24 GMT -8
I'm no fan of Obama, but is that the genuine truth, or just some shit someone made up for the purpose of dropping the market into the close? Who is the source? Any "news" item claiming to be from "sources" but not divulging those sources is just as likely to be a total fabrication. Probably the latter. Let's create an AFB twitter account, have us all follow it, and then just make shit up from "sources" to manipulate the stock. We can release the "news" in the pre-market after having made our trades at the end of the previous trading day. Doesn't seem illegal to me. There are plenty of rumor sites out there who make shit up for page views. It wouldn't surprise me if people were trading on that information ahead of time too. It all gets back to sentiment. This time last year, we had all kinds of macro crap, and Chicken Little decided to take an extended vacation. The markets ignored bad news and rallied hard on "optimism" for four months straight.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 28, 2012 13:20:41 GMT -8
Futures tanking after hours. Good grief, can we end this year already? Ya i'm watching this too. biting my fist for not getting some vix calls yesterday at the close. i had hoped today would extend that a bit to get it under 19 before a dissapointing monday, but the dissapointment started this morning. rats rats rats
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 13:23:20 GMT -8
Well, the Dow futures are down 228, and AAPL's AH low is 507.10. How's that for relative strength?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 13:26:24 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 13:29:19 GMT -8
Futures tanking after hours. Good grief, can we end this year already? Which is why I said yesterday... Monday is going to SUCK. I have no faith in any form of resolution happening over the weekend. These stupid positive rumors are doing nothing but extending our pain longer in time.
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Post by kloot on Dec 28, 2012 14:05:20 GMT -8
Well, the Dow futures are down 228, and AAPL's AH low is 507.10. How's that for relative strength? I think the 228 counts today's 100+ loss in it, not since today at 4pm, but I could be mistaken. CNBC reported it the same way (200 MORE lost points). either way, still some outperformance by AAPL. all the twitter bears calling for 470 so glibly haven't been watching AAPL outperform these past couple days.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 14:05:24 GMT -8
So when there is a deal this weekend, there are going to be a lot of people caught short or chasing the train the other way.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 14:10:16 GMT -8
Obama making a statement at 5:45 from the White House to all of America. Lovely.
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