4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 5, 2019 22:08:55 GMT -8
I think the lack of comment threading is a systemic issue that probably is responsible for adding more frustration than people realize. On most comment platforms there is threading that tends to lump discussions together in natural clusters that tend to clump by subtopic and make it easier to skim over stuff you’re not interested in. The platform is just so crude by today’s standards. A linear list is so unsuited for comments. Agree...but I don't know if we have the power to change that. Frankly I've become used to it, but if I have some time to dig around I'll see if there are any other options. You'd think there might be, since there is a reply button on each post. Otherwise, the workaround is to quote the post you are responding to, which has the added benefit of pinging them (within the board, by default) of the quote, and thus the reply. In other news, I always get a kick out of the market going the opposite way that makes sense. In today's case, it was because the j obs report was a positive for the outlook for the US economy, and thus made an expected rate cut a bit less likely. This while advertisements talk of housing loan rates being down from a year ago (and thus a great time to refi), and our margin loan still only up to 3%. FWIW I preferred it when the rate was lower than AAPL's dividend, but 3% ain't half bad. I'm reading "The Great Crash 1929" by Galbraith right now. It's not as concise as some bubble overviews I've read in the past, and it bugs me when he used general terms like U.S. Steel dropped 17 points that day, instead of percentages. But the Times Industrials going from 224 on November 13, 1929 to 58 on July 8, 1932 makes it all pretty clear. That was a bubbly time that was even higher aloft than 2000 and 2008. While I'm sure we are closer to a relative top than the relative low, the stock and the market as a whole is no where near the euphoric tops we've seen in the last 2 decades. Personally, without the euphoric top there shouldn't be a big drop, but this could very well be like previous timeframes outside most of our investment knowledge, stuck more in a range even if there are ups and downs. It's all just a guess, but I could see people who recently lived through 1 or 2 big downturns wanting to jump the gun and then sidelining it for too long. Some people with successfully time the market. Many won't. And those that sit back and hold will be collecting the dividend while the stocks behave chaotically though slowly ratchet up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 7:29:12 GMT -8
I didn’t thing of quoting as a ping until you mentioned it. I’m still out of town and on mobile and mobile client isn’t bad, but quoting isn’t great unless you quote entire comments which I hate. I could never get used to this site for commenting. But maybe it doesn’t matter in the end I don’t know.
I just googled for free blogging sites but the lists I turned up don’t list whether or not commenting is integrated or good. I kicked the tires on postach.io platform that layers on top of Evernote when it first came out since I’m an Evernote user. It integrates with discus comment platform. But they soon eliminated the free tier and now it’s $5 minimum so I dropped it early on. Not a blogger just find platform questions interesting.
You’re getting 3% on margin loan? Where?
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Post by silkstone on Jul 6, 2019 7:31:36 GMT -8
Hey Silkstone (Welcome! Though you joined a few years ago, I don't remember you posting), did you mean to add something to that post? It looks like that is the 2nd one that only had quoted material. For your own posts, you can click edit and change things after the fact. You can also delete your own posts, whether you double post or decide for some reason you don't want it around. The moderators generally don't edit or delete posts, though we will sometimes move ones that shouldn't belong in the daily thread. But frankly even being retired, it's summer time and we have 3 young kids to keep up with, house projects to do, trips planned, and relatives and friends stopping by. Plus I need to get out onto the trails, for exercise and to lead trail work after a 150% snow fall year. So we generally try to self-moderate. Even if some don't believe it's possible, it has been what has generally worked here for the past 5 years. Thanks for joining in on the thread! Okay, thanks.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jul 6, 2019 9:51:14 GMT -8
And let’s not be naive. If Tim Cook were a racist we’d be fine with him running the company as long as his personal views were insulated from company policies and decisions and would give him a pass on it even if we wouldn’t have a friend as s bigot. Nope. I am continually drawn to AAPL partially because of their stance, and have stopped or decided against other companies because of theirs.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 6, 2019 13:44:51 GMT -8
You’re getting 3% on margin loan? Where? TDA matched Interactive Brokers' rate schedule for me maybe a decade ago, which kept me there. It looks like the rate is now even a touch less than IB. But IB's are amazingly low. If you borrow much, which I suggest against, you can ask your brokerage if they will match IB. We use it as an alternate to a traditional mortgage on our properties, backstopped with a HELOC just in case. Though by keeping our relative exposure small even if the dollar figure is high, that backup plan hasn't been nor should be something we'll need.
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Post by dmiller on Jul 6, 2019 15:33:17 GMT -8
Right, we need to remember that Tim Cook was hand picked after much thought by Steve Jobs. It didn’t matter if he was gay. Number one reason if I remember correctly was Tim’s genius as a supply chain manager. The ability to get millions of iPhones, iPads, macs, watches, earpods, etc. manufactured to very high standards, shipped all over the world and delivered on time requires a person who is well beyond what most of us here are capable of. If Tim was mismanaging the company by producing inferior products to the detriment of the consumer, I don’t think our consumer satisfaction levels would be 90 + percent so you have that wrong. And his job as the CEO is exactly that, to maximize profits for the benefit of shareholders so he’s doing a great job there as well. In addition to all that he’s keeping employees very happy and enjoying very high satisfaction scores from the people who work for Apple. Then we will simply judge him based on earnings growth and price of the stock nothing else. So moving forward dont blame Trump or China or the economy if things go south. So far the stock is going down from ATH and every metric is going down. I believe he has managed the ability to produce millions of iPhones and was lucky enough to be present during the mobile revolution started by Apple not him personally. But he did it by making a deal with a country that will bite the hand that feeds it. He also increased the pricing of Apple's hit product and now sales are down in a booming economy. Smart phone adoption and switchers are no longer discussed in conference calls. Focusing on movies and services are distractions especially when they make up such a small portion of overall profits. Yes satisfaction is sky high for their products and that will keep the company healthy for many years. But there are dark clouds gathering as we see poor execution on many fronts. Look I will admit that even if the stock drops 45% from here, the present board will not fire him. His liberal views will keep him from being fired since most of the board agrees with him. But if the 5G becomes a dud and the stock stays in the $120 range come end of 2021, then we will be having a very different conversation. I don’t agree with any of this at all. And I’ve been here a long time. 🙂
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Post by dmiller on Jul 6, 2019 15:37:08 GMT -8
Wrote something and decided to delete it Instead of writing anything negative I will choose to focus on something positive. I could not be prouder of the way Tim Cook has run this company. The ethics that Apple as a company stand behind are a testament to Tim’s leadership. Anyone paying attention knows how this company stands on many hot button issues. Speaking for myself, I could not invest in a company that had morals and corporate ethics that contrast my own, lucky for me it’s not an issue with Apple. Everyone has to make that decision for themselves. Go Tim Go Apple Cheers to the longs I completely agree with all of this. And I’ve been here a long time 🙂
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 15:43:51 GMT -8
And let’s not be naive. If Tim Cook were a racist we’d be fine with him running the company as long as his personal views were insulated from company policies and decisions and would give him a pass on it even if we wouldn’t have a friend as s bigot. Nope. I am continually drawn to AAPL partially because of their stance, and have stopped or decided against other companies because of theirs. I should have said most of us, not ‘we’. I know socially responsible investing is a thing. I’m not even sure a company can have really a stance per se. Just like individuals, corporate heads often overestimate the significance of their own beliefs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 15:51:17 GMT -8
Thanks 4aapl. That’s great info. I’m with TDA also. I’ll ask my rep about it. I’ve also been thinking of using it in a similar way.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 6, 2019 19:45:56 GMT -8
Thanks 4aapl. That’s great info. I’m with TDA also. I’ll ask my rep about it. I’ve also been thinking of using it in a similar way. Just be careful. You'd hate to use a margin account to side-step a mortgage, and then be forced to sell out at a low. And I'd hate to see anyone forced into that. But yea, talk to your rep. I have no idea if they all still have plenty of available options, and really haven't pushed it much except for this. And with the turnover of reps, I have had ones amazed that I got these rates. OTOH, knowing what IB gives everyone does give you options, if a low margin rate could be helpful to you currently or in the future. Though one more time for good measure, please (everyone) be careful if using margin. My handle might very well be Lucky2 if I hadn't had to sell a lot of shares back in 2009 at $95, pre-split.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2019 9:05:56 GMT -8
Oh I’m careful, and I’ve used margin for at least 10 years. So glad I did. I’ve been moving it way down in the past few years and now it’s only 3% or so of my aapl. At this point I’m just moving money around from one pile to another. I can eliminate it. I pinged my guy at TDA some years ago I asked about rates when my level wasn’t as low and hinted I was ready to do whatever it took to get better rates just to see if he could do anything. So he had it knocked down and deposited a small lump sum to makeup for “poor service” since we both know I was getting screwed on rates. At this point I don’t have enough margin to make it worth arguing about, but being the inquisitive type I’ll hypothetically ask what kind of rate I could get for more for a short time just for my own knowledge. It might never happen but I’ve heard some real estate gets sold for cash off market though I’d never want to leave a high margin amount out there for long term. I’m not a real estate guy so no idea if that’s likely. Even if not a realistic scenario I always want to know what options I have available even if it’s unlikely I’d ever need it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 7, 2019 10:37:11 GMT -8
It is a great way to get large sums of cash, temporarily or not, quickly.
I did buy one of our homes at auction in cash, using my margin account temporarily. And on another that went to auction the week of Obama's election, I could not safely get the cash for a different house purchase, and got to see how most places aren't set up for a quick sizable loan like that, even if temporary.
But it's always good to know what is available, and occasionally advantageous situations arise. As long as you don't overextend or are reckless, it can be a good thing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 10:16:24 GMT -8
And let’s not be naive. If Tim Cook were a racist we’d be fine with him running the company as long as his personal views were insulated from company policies and decisions and would give him a pass on it even if we wouldn’t have a friend as s bigot. Nope. I am continually drawn to AAPL partially because of their stance, and have stopped or decided against other companies because of theirs. Here's why ESG investing is counterproductive and pointless. www.pragcap.com/my-view-on-esg-investing/
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jul 16, 2019 13:48:55 GMT -8
Those narrow justifications address little of my reasoning.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 16:07:24 GMT -8
Those narrow justifications address little of my reasoning. It seemed fairly comprehensive to me. And what we aren't willing to or can't find a way to articulate usually isn't classified as reasoning.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jul 16, 2019 23:33:19 GMT -8
1. You told the board we’d be fine If Cook was a racist. 2. I said I wouldn’t be. 3. You linked an article with some reasons why some people should be fine with your thing. 4. I said, again, that it doesn’t represent my reasoning. 5. Because I don’t/won’t agree, and don’t feel the need to be drawn into justifying that as an investor i’ wouldn’t be ok with Cook being a racist, I’m now incapable of reason? I simply don’t want to be tarred with your brush. Ok?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2019 7:41:21 GMT -8
No one needs to agree with anyone, but it's hard to see the point of signaling strongly held beliefs and then refusing to give reasons for them. What reason is there for that?
BTW, I said if Cook was a racist and indicated that wouldn't include running the company on racist principles. That would be another matter entirely.
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