chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 20, 2019 4:57:19 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2019 12:11:16 GMT -8
Doubling in two years is too optimistic. But in 5-10 it's not inconceivable. People focus on the iPhone, but the biggest reason the stock price leveled off from its torrid pace was when it became apparent that iPad sales were slowing from a pace that was even faster than iPhone adoption was. The iPad looked to top the iPhone as the world's most successful product until then. Looking back, expectations were way too optimistic for such an immature platform.
But what if Apple is able to mature the iPad in such a way that it actually does become the PC alternative for a dramatically larger slice of the population? And what if Apple cuts out Intel from their laptop line and significantly reduces costs there too making MacBooks more attractive than they already are? Meanwhile MS is still struggling to come up with the next version of the last unix alternative on earth, the monolithic Windows OS, to please the corporate pointy headed bosses. I'm not predicting this. At this point it's just a what if. But I suppose it's possible. If that did happen, part of the market cap of MS would shift to Apple, and Apple's would go up and MS down and it'd be seen as the next IBM in decline. Windows is legacy OS to milk for years, and Linux completes its takeover of the datacenter. It's my fantasy, so why not? This would be the completion of the cycle of mobile eating the world anywhere people care what computer they use, and unix becoming the universal OS that ate the rest after it matured 50 years after it's inception.
This would be the dream scenario for AAPL investors, which is why it probably won't happen. It's probably just shows that I'm like the proverbial general always thinking of the last war. Santayana was wrong. Those who remember the past, or at least think they do, are the ones most likely to repeat it. But then again who thought a music player would be the Trojan Horse it turned out to be that changed the computing world?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jul 20, 2019 13:04:54 GMT -8
Doubling in two years is too optimistic. But in 5-10 it's not inconceivable. People focus on the iPhone, but the biggest reason the stock price leveled off from its torrid pace was when it became apparent that iPad sales were slowing from a pace that was even faster than iPhone adoption was. The iPad looked to top the iPhone as the world's most successful product until then. Looking back, expectations were way too optimistic for such an immature platform. But what if Apple is able to mature the iPad in such a way that it actually does become the PC alternative for a dramatically larger slice of the population? And what if Apple cuts out Intel from their laptop line and significantly reduces costs there too making MacBooks more attractive than they already are? Meanwhile MS is still struggling to come up with the next version of the last unix alternative on earth, the monolithic Windows OS, to please the corporate pointy headed bosses. I'm not predicting this. At this point it's just a what if. But I suppose it's possible. If that did happen, part of the market cap of MS would shift to Apple, and Apple's would go up and MS down and it'd be seen as the next IBM in decline. Windows is legacy OS to milk for years, and Linux completes its takeover of the datacenter. It's my fantasy, so why not? This would be the completion of the cycle of mobile eating the world anywhere people care what computer they use, and unix becoming the universal OS that ate the rest after it matured 50 years after it's inception. This would be the dream scenario for AAPL investors, which is why it probably won't happen. It's probably just shows that I'm like the proverbial general always thinking of the last war. Santayana was wrong. Those who remember the past, or at least think they do, are the ones most likely to repeat it. But then again who thought a music player would be the Trojan Horse it turned out to be that changed the computing world? I like your fantasy, well said!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2019 13:36:19 GMT -8
Glad you liked it Dave. On this scenario, the watch with–in the future I suppose–glucose monitoring and also Apple's health initiatives are there too and contributing a good bit of money, as are future unknown devices that contribute to the dominance of Apple and it's future revenue streams. But as with most things in life the heavy lifting and enablement of the finer things are done by the things and the people most don't see or think about. The things that happen at WWDC. I just stumbled across a new post by Rene Ritchie of iMore, who I should have included as a 5th member of my pics for Apple technical (not financial) analysts. iPadOS Safari: Desktop-Class Browsing is Here!A great follow on to the fantasy scenario I outlined. It's a fascinating review of the beta iPadOS v13 Safari, and in the beginning he masterfully walks through the history of how mobile Safari has developed. I learned a lot. I'll watch it again later it's so good. He says at the end how he wished Apple had done much of this from the beginning of the iPad Pro introduction, and perhaps it's a bit tongue-in-cheek, but it seems to me such developments have to be evolutionary, and sometimes that depends on evolution of corporate management as well, and that's why iPad development has been maddeningly slow. But it's this sort of thing that makes me wonder if the iPad has a much brighter future than many realize, even though it's now a financial success by any measure. Seems to me Apple is grinding out the details of a new platform little by little, and there probably is no other way to do it well. That progress is slow doesn't mean there won't be a tipping point where it begins to appeal to a larger target audience. Ritchie's video just shows how insanely complex are all the decisions and work going into iPad Safari. It's way more complex when you throw mobile into the mix. To a non-software developer like me it might as well be magic.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2019 17:20:17 GMT -8
This isn't the first time I've heard this story, but it's more perspective on the issue of the lunar module landing and the concerning error messaged emitted by the computer and the gutsy judgment call to ignore them. And I learned some things too. Apollo 11 Had a Hidden Hero: Software
Behind a paywall (and I've not seen the article) but accessible video is really good. Tried to find a free edition and turned up the BBC's 13 Minutes to the Moon, which I hadn't heard of and I'll look forward to seeing when I get time.
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Post by sponge on Jul 20, 2019 18:26:38 GMT -8
I am actually looking forward to Apple’s “For All Mankind”
May turn out to be a very good series.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jul 21, 2019 8:27:53 GMT -8
I found this article encouraging. Apple Arcade Will Be the Most Genius Gaming Service of 2019 for Two Reasons www.inverse.com/article/57879-apple-arcade-cloud-gaming-iphones-ipads“Stadia and xCloud will stream games from cloud servers to subscribers' phones, tablets, and laptops. To pull this off without lag, users need reliable and fast internet connections, a luxury that remains inaccessible to large swaths of the country. In contrast, Apple Arcade won't rely on internet speeds, for the most part.”
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