chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jul 31, 2019 5:08:17 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 31, 2019 5:17:02 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jul 31, 2019 5:44:03 GMT -8
WHhhheeeeeeee! Ha hah!
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Jul 31, 2019 6:05:30 GMT -8
Agree with longsince1ish about the shift in narrative away from Apple as a ‘one trick pony’ company to one, hopefully, that is essentially about the stickinesss of the eco system Apple offers. That should be a more enduring story and may build longer term positive sentiment.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jul 31, 2019 6:19:32 GMT -8
Congrats longs wow - I'm seeing a seven figure gain today in my portfolio - just wonderful. The narrative is changing and that will be very very sweet for our stock in the coming years. Less of the boom bust iPhone cyclical noise and more of the growth and profile of the company across so many wonderful devices, wearable, and services - and yes the computers which started it all!
thanks to all on this board who have been a bastion of sanity and reasoned discussion over the years. I've appreciated all of your strategies and esp. in the use of leaps which really were a game changer for my tax deferred SEP account (which is basically chock full of apple in the money leaps, and I roll forward about every 12-14 months. In the taxable account is common stock - and we fund our charitable giving with our apple stock and replenish those shares via the dividend - Tim, Lucca have created a monster wealth machine.
I have to say in this regard - the financial engineering expertise of Luca and Tim far exceeds that of Steve Jobs - bravo to both of them - especially the cash neutral stance goal going forward - thet shows real commitment to shareholders and allows them to continually increase the dividend out of an increasingly smaller pool of shares, out of a cash register from the most profitable company ever in existence.
Add that to higher multiple a "services and software" company will enjoy with those hefty margins going forward is just wonderful - It seems insanely great to think of, but I can actually picture apple at 400-500 in 5-7 years. with a market cap climbing towards 2 trillion.
WHEEEEEEE!!
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 31, 2019 6:33:02 GMT -8
215 and under would be a BTFD opportunity.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jul 31, 2019 7:01:53 GMT -8
Congrats longs wow - I'm seeing a seven figure gain today in my portfolio - just wonderful. The narrative is changing and that will be very very sweet for our stock in the coming years. Less of the boom bust iPhone cyclical noise and more of the growth and profile of the company across so many wonderful devices, wearable, and services - and yes the computers which started it all! thanks to all on this board who have been a bastion of sanity and reasoned discussion over the years. I've appreciated all of your strategies and esp. in the use of leaps which really were a game changer for my tax deferred SEP account (which is basically chock full of apple in the money leaps, and I roll forward about every 12-14 months. In the taxable account is common stock - and we fund our charitable giving with our apple stock and replenish those shares via the dividend - Tim, Lucca have created a monster wealth machine. I have to say in this regard - the financial engineering expertise of Luca and Tim far exceeds that of Steve Jobs - bravo to both of them - especially the cash neutral stance goal going forward - thet shows real commitment to shareholders and allows them to continually increase the dividend out of an increasingly smaller pool of shares, out of a cash register from the most profitable company ever in existence. Add that to higher multiple a "services and software" company will enjoy with those hefty margins going forward is just wonderful - It seems insanely great to think of, but I can actually picture apple at 400-500 in 5-7 years. with a market cap climbing towards 2 trillion. WHEEEEEEE!! Congratulations on your 7 figure gain! And I applaud your charitable giving. Karma is real
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Post by sponge on Jul 31, 2019 7:03:14 GMT -8
All the upgrades moved us beyond my price target of 219. We almost filled the 222 gap from Nov 2.
Bought my puts as planned at a 90% discount😂
Should be noted that money flow index has been moving down since June.
So now I patiently wait as we trend lower with each passing hour and day.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,640
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 31, 2019 7:07:44 GMT -8
215 and under would be a BTFD opportunity. It's nice to have a big up day, or rather to have AH action stick around at least the first 1.5 hours. But it also pays to be realistic about the price movement. AAPL isn't likely to just go up, and rarely has for any longer stretches. The strong upward pulls have been on strong news. Instead, this is the middle ground, on middle news. $215 and $220 are both likely to be seen again this week. $210 and $225 this month. $205 isn't outlandish, but we could see $230 if people start getting excited about upcoming products (iPhone, but "all product categories" was mentioned, plus the credit card, and then OS updates that likely indirectly help). Someone with more time or adventure can try to play those likely moves. But I'd expect to see $215, and my BTFD level if I was looking would be down at $205, or even $199.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 31, 2019 7:12:53 GMT -8
whoa... i couldn't agree more with the following quote... especially instructive for a certain someone whose sig is "don't invest in aapl until Tim Cook is fired"
bravo, lindzon!
(and yeah... if trade war was properly resolved in may, AAPL would likely be at ATH today)
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 31, 2019 7:22:55 GMT -8
Congrats longs wow - I'm seeing a seven figure gain today in my portfolio - just wonderful. The narrative is changing and that will be very very sweet for our stock in the coming years. Less of the boom bust iPhone cyclical noise and more of the growth and profile of the company across so many wonderful devices, wearable, and services - and yes the computers which started it all! thanks to all on this board who have been a bastion of sanity and reasoned discussion over the years. I've appreciated all of your strategies and esp. in the use of leaps which really were a game changer for my tax deferred SEP account (which is basically chock full of apple in the money leaps, and I roll forward about every 12-14 months. In the taxable account is common stock - and we fund our charitable giving with our apple stock and replenish those shares via the dividend - Tim, Lucca have created a monster wealth machine. I have to say in this regard - the financial engineering expertise of Luca and Tim far exceeds that of Steve Jobs - bravo to both of them - especially the cash neutral stance goal going forward - thet shows real commitment to shareholders and allows them to continually increase the dividend out of an increasingly smaller pool of shares, out of a cash register from the most profitable company ever in existence. Add that to higher multiple a "services and software" company will enjoy with those hefty margins going forward is just wonderful - It seems insanely great to think of, but I can actually picture apple at 400-500 in 5-7 years. with a market cap climbing towards 2 trillion. WHEEEEEEE!!
1. i completely agree on tim and luca (see lindzon quote above to the naysayers)... i give sponge here a pass because he's cute and an excellent contrarian indicator, but get seriously irked when talking heads on cnbc start to call for tim to be fired
2. congrats on your huge gains... which implies a bigger overall accumulation still, given it's just a 4-5% move today... kudos on charitable giving!
3. sooooo... may i ask, how do you cope with the big downturns? like the trip from 233 to 142 (almost 40%) must have been close to an 8 figure loss asking for a friend (and no, i don't have that kind of money yet... though me and my partner have something cooking if aapl doesn't pan out )
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Post by sponge on Jul 31, 2019 7:28:02 GMT -8
I know I come across as negative on Apple and its stock.
But I learned from many here that investing in a stock should be based on three simple factors. And Apple knows best then most where they are going long term.
But in the short term we must have positive net income, positive eps, and positive revenue. Last Q we had none of those. In the future we may have one (revenue).
All signs point to a slowing world and US economy with no real resolution of the tariff war. May I remind everyone that we went from 233 to 142 in 3 months last year. Sentiment can change overnight. To me that was a warning bell to be cautious because a storm is brewing.
So yes there are a ton of great things to be excited about, but net income is flat in the last 5 years and that tells most investors that despite great products and buybacks, this company is about to go thru some changes and a slowing economy is not going to help it transition.
The iPHone is still king and this is not a transition from iPod to iPhone. Wearables may be doing great but 25% of the growth in Apple Watch are from folks like us who buy 2 every 4 years. We are not going to buy 2 next year. Not that many people can afford a $400 watch and an $900 iPhone. So when things really slow down here in the US, Apple will be in a world of hurt.
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Post by silkstone on Jul 31, 2019 7:56:40 GMT -8
I know I come across as negative on Apple and its stock. But I learned from many here that investing in a stock should be based on three simple factors. And Apple knows best then most where they are going long term. But in the short term we must have positive net income, positive eps, and positive revenue. Last Q we had none of those. In the future we may have one (revenue). All signs point to a slowing world and US economy with no real resolution of the tariff war. May I remind everyone that we went from 233 to 142 in 3 months last year. Sentiment can change overnight. To me that was a warning bell to be cautious because a storm is brewing. So yes there are a ton of great things to be excited about, but net income is flat in the last 5 years and that tells most investors that despite great products and buybacks, this company is about to go thru some changes and a slowing economy is not going to help it transition. The iPHone is still king and this is not a transition from iPod to iPhone. Wearables may be doing great but 25% of the growth in Apple Watch are from folks like us who buy 2 every 4 years. We are not going to buy 2 next year. Not that many people can afford a $400 watch and an $900 iPhone. So when things really slow down here in the US, Apple will be in a world of hurt. Face it sponge, you are a contrarian and a pessimist when it comes to apple.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,640
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 31, 2019 8:10:40 GMT -8
But in the short term we must have positive net income, positive eps, and positive revenue. Last Q we had none of those. In the future we may have one (revenue). You might want to check revenue again. My notes show a 1% YOY increase. The side story is if the big worries (iPhone sales going to the floor due to Trade issues) don't end up being an issue, and the rev/income mix comes more and more from sources seen as more consistent, then AAPL can increase even without rev/income increase. Whether you or I agree with that, it doesn't much matter. But it's what has been pushed for years, that Apple has too much exposure to a singular product line that is sure to disappear any day now. That the same thing is true in other companies (Tesla, Netflix) is immaterial. While this change could increase AAPL's P/E, it's more likely that the wall of worry being pushed at us will change. It's all about grabbing those eyeballs, and with Apple being one of the largest companies by market cap, plus a polarized view on it, we'll continue to get plenty of hit pieces and analysis hacks into the distant future.
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Post by sponge on Jul 31, 2019 8:13:18 GMT -8
I stand corrected about revenue.
Everyone is excited about less reliance on iPhone, but net income is still dependent on the iPhone.
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 31, 2019 8:34:25 GMT -8
I know I come across as negative on Apple and its stock. But I learned from many here that investing in a stock should be based on three simple factors. And Apple knows best then most where they are going long term. But in the short term we must have positive net income, positive eps, and positive revenue. Last Q we had none of those. In the future we may have one (revenue). All signs point to a slowing world and US economy with no real resolution of the tariff war. May I remind everyone that we went from 233 to 142 in 3 months last year. Sentiment can change overnight. To me that was a warning bell to be cautious because a storm is brewing. So yes there are a ton of great things to be excited about, but net income is flat in the last 5 years and that tells most investors that despite great products and buybacks, this company is about to go thru some changes and a slowing economy is not going to help it transition. The iPHone is still king and this is not a transition from iPod to iPhone. Wearables may be doing great but 25% of the growth in Apple Watch are from folks like us who buy 2 every 4 years. We are not going to buy 2 next year. Not that many people can afford a $400 watch and an $900 iPhone. So when things really slow down here in the US, Apple will be in a world of hurt. Sponge, I personally value your contrarian perspectives. But you have your persistent agenda, which is fine, tho it personally concerns me that your feigned expertise risks negatively influencing those who don’t follow the board as closely. But the biggest variable that outweighs all these points you outline - by far - is that Apple is successfully increasing total INSTALLED BASE, while successfully increasing focus on service growth TO that growing base (one which happens to spend the most). Above all the other calendars which are firing for Apple, this is the strongest over riding theme to focus on in recent times. I wouldn’t decry your personal strategy and prognostications if you didn’t often state them as apparent facts (& didn’t change your POV so often). But the buy and hold (& buy more upon dips) works extremely well with this company - I personally went from having $15K DOLLARS in AAPL 20 years ago, to having 500K SHARES this year. The amount of buy and hold success we’ve seen on this board should say something to you about how valid that approach is for those who are paying attention. - at least enough to convince you to state your claims in a much more speculative way. My 2 cents, and with due respect.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 31, 2019 8:43:49 GMT -8
Action across the board is kinda lackluster today. AAPL is also slowly losing its steam. At 216.37 as I write this. 5 bucks lower than its HOD of 221.37.
But the good thing coming out of this ER is that the narrative is slowly shifting from Apple being just an iPhone company.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jul 31, 2019 8:51:09 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 31, 2019 9:07:15 GMT -8
But in the short term we must have positive improving net income, positive improving eps, and positive improving revenue... May I remind everyone that we went from 233 to 142 in 3 months last year. Sentiment can change overnight. To me that was a warning bell to be cautious because a storm is brewing. FIFY
spongie, markets are forward-looking... as you know, metrics were all deteriorating in the fall, culminating in the guidance revision on january 2nd after hours... but look the markets anticipated with the very fall you're using as an example!
the problem is that there is no warning bell - there was nothing ringing loudly in october that deterioration was coming... january 3rd was literally THE low... once all the bad news was out, nowhere to go but up in terms of improving revenue, net income, eps...
that was the time bunch of swing traders bought here, from myself (your humble chemistry teacher) to the multi-millionaires, longsince1ish and soCal film composer (hats off to you gents!)
and what you did you do? buy june 120 puts... i suspect you thought the sell-off was the warning bell, as you state above, but in reality you were 3 months behind.
good luck with your current puts, they seem to be doing ok at the moment, given the fade... but i agree with others, there's much more effective ways to money with aapl
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 31, 2019 9:54:57 GMT -8
What's with the Cramer hate? Hasn't he been pretty much a buy and hold on AAPL for a couple years? Granted I don't even have cable anymore, so I haven't watched his or any other CNBC show in some time (I can watch a stream of CNBC via Charles Schwab's Street Smart software). Cramer does a 5 day a week show, so he's going to ramble and meander a bit.
Cramer reminds me of this one Tonight Show when Johnny Carson responded to a groaning audience after a bit failed. He gave the audience a perturbed look and said, "Look, I've gotta fill 90 minutes a night." 🤷♂️
I'm going to have to dissent on Cook. I don't think history will look back on him as it does Jack Welch (but hopefully not Immelt). I hope I'm proven wrong, but he keeps talking about this mythical pipeline we never see, and Tim does still seem to forget about half the country. The half that doesn't like its guns turned into pansy 🔫 emojis. I know people personally who hate Apple because of its perceived politics. How is that good for revenue and growth and branding going forward? Hell, I'm a free marketeer and I'm starting to root for Big Tech to be regulated to be content neutral.
Just so we're clear, I'm long AAPL, holding 25+ years, and I gave up trying to time AAPL's price a long time ago. I just don't know if I'd tell a new investor to invest in AAPL over several other companies at this point. Crying about AAPL's undervalued P/E has gotten us nowhere. With all that said, I hope we're 300 this time next year and you're all reminding me of my negative post.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 31, 2019 10:08:02 GMT -8
Ok ... Fed cut out of the way. Let's see what happens now. Equities just got more attractive.
Cheers to the longs ...
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Post by plcm123 on Jul 31, 2019 10:24:28 GMT -8
Guys, don't underestimate the sales potential of iPhone 11. Most people who buy iPhone don't know what '5G' mean nor even care, remember the 3G iPhone? Unlike Android phone users, iPhone users only care about the refined user interface and the build quality. And Tim Cook still reminds us that there are still switchers "...we continue to attract an impressive number of switchers...", and we're talking about the lowest seasonal quarter iPhone sales.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 31, 2019 11:51:49 GMT -8
Last time it was the trade war; this time the Fed. WTF!!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 31, 2019 12:34:29 GMT -8
Last time it was the trade war; this time the Fed. WTF!!
yeah... aapl can't catch a break with earnings lately... you got your btfd under 215
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Post by sponge on Jul 31, 2019 12:39:12 GMT -8
Well I bailed out with 43% gain. Did not like the fact that we did not get to my 211 target. We stayed around 218 for too long with too much volume holding it up.
Will reassess tomorrow morning.
Market needs to have a nice 2% move down to give me the signal that we will go towards the 50MA.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jul 31, 2019 13:30:36 GMT -8
What's with the Cramer hate? Hasn't he been pretty much a buy and hold on AAPL for a couple years? Granted I don't even have cable anymore, so I haven't watched his or any other CNBC show in some time (I can watch a stream of CNBC via Charles Schwab's Street Smart software). Cramer does a 5 day a week show, so he's going to ramble and meander a bit. Just to be clear, I have not watched Cramer nearly enough to form any opinion about him. However, I am aware that his reputation is mixed at best, especially in this forum. If he has been buy and hold AAPL, then good, for he and I are certainly on the same page there.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 31, 2019 15:25:34 GMT -8
Powell should be arrested for murder (the rally). 📉
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Post by aaplsauce on Jul 31, 2019 15:55:49 GMT -8
What's with the Cramer hate? Hasn't he been pretty much a buy and hold on AAPL for a couple years? Granted I don't even have cable anymore, so I haven't watched his or any other CNBC show in some time (I can watch a stream of CNBC via Charles Schwab's Street Smart software). Cramer does a 5 day a week show, so he's going to ramble and meander a bit. Cramer reminds me of this one Tonight Show when Johnny Carson responded to a groaning audience after a bit failed. He gave the audience a perturbed look and said, "Look, I've gotta fill 90 minutes a night." 🤷♂️ I'm going to have to dissent on Cook. I don't think history will look back on him as it does Jack Welch (but hopefully not Immelt). I hope I'm proven wrong, but he keeps talking about this mythical pipeline we never see, and Tim does still seem to forget about half the country. The half that doesn't like its guns turned into pansy 🔫 emojis. I know people personally who hate Apple because of its perceived politics. How is that good for revenue and growth and branding going forward? Hell, I'm a free marketeer and I'm starting to root for Big Tech to be regulated to be content neutral. Just so we're clear, I'm long AAPL, holding 25+ years, and I gave up trying to time AAPL's price a long time ago. I just don't know if I'd tell a new investor to invest in AAPL over several other companies at this point. Crying about AAPL's undervalued P/E has gotten us nowhere. With all that said, I hope we're 300 this time next year and you're all reminding me of my negative post. "...and Tim does still seem to forget about half the country. The half that doesn't like its guns turned into pansy 🔫 emojis. I know people personally who hate Apple because of its perceived politics. How is that good for revenue and growth and branding going forward? Hell, I'm a free marketeer and I'm starting to root for Big Tech to be regulated to be content neutral." It's disappointing to see comments like this from an shareholder, including disparaging words such as "pansy". Do you really believe half of the country has an issue with the gun emoji being transformed into a water pistol? You are aware of all the gun violence in the USA, including recent headlines? I thought the emoji transformation was brilliant. I'm not surprised you "know people personally who hate Apple because of its perceived politics". Perhaps you are referring to policies such as pro-immigration, pro-environment and pro-privacy? The cool thing about USA, is that if a shareholder is offended by such policies, they are free to invest in other companies and choose to use other branded products. I invest in because I love the product, the company & most of it's policies, and the folks that run the company including Tim Cook. I also enjoy making money. I'd also bet the majority of shareholders on this board invest in for similar reasons.
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Post by carbonate24 on Jul 31, 2019 16:23:31 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 18:46:58 GMT -8
What's with the Cramer hate? Hasn't he been pretty much a buy and hold on AAPL for a couple years? Granted I don't even have cable anymore, so I haven't watched his or any other CNBC show in some time (I can watch a stream of CNBC via Charles Schwab's Street Smart software). Cramer does a 5 day a week show, so he's going to ramble and meander a bit. Cramer reminds me of this one Tonight Show when Johnny Carson responded to a groaning audience after a bit failed. He gave the audience a perturbed look and said, "Look, I've gotta fill 90 minutes a night." 🤷♂️ I'm going to have to dissent on Cook. I don't think history will look back on him as it does Jack Welch (but hopefully not Immelt). I hope I'm proven wrong, but he keeps talking about this mythical pipeline we never see, and Tim does still seem to forget about half the country. The half that doesn't like its guns turned into pansy 🔫 emojis. I know people personally who hate Apple because of its perceived politics. How is that good for revenue and growth and branding going forward? Hell, I'm a free marketeer and I'm starting to root for Big Tech to be regulated to be content neutral. Just so we're clear, I'm long AAPL, holding 25+ years, and I gave up trying to time AAPL's price a long time ago. I just don't know if I'd tell a new investor to invest in AAPL over several other companies at this point. Crying about AAPL's undervalued P/E has gotten us nowhere. With all that said, I hope we're 300 this time next year and you're all reminding me of my negative post. Cramer has said to buy and hold Apple for a number of years, but at one point before that he said "Apple story is over" and I wish I could remember the date. But look, no hate because the truth is Apple is hard to get, or was, and you can't expect a guy like him to know everything about them. To do that in earlier days, before Buffet could get them at the level of consumer branding, you needed either direct knowledge and or supplements from Dediu, Gruber, Cybart, Ben Thompson, and Rene Ritchie. Your comparison with Carson is spot-on. On Apple hate, I hear you but Apple has always been a very polarizing company. People don't seem to realize that business and tech politics is as bitter as what we normally call politics so IMO it isn't just that. So honestly, I'm not sure how much recent "activism" makes. Believe me, my first job in tech was as a salesman, and I can assure you Apple is polarizing in non-political ways as well. Humans are funny, and we love to use scapegoats to try to explain what we don't see or what would embarrass us to explain if we do see them. I think Cook is thus far respecting Jobs' understanding of being non-political in relative terms. I, like Cook, think Big Tech needs to be looked into. I think Apple's business model (and MS) is far less reliant on problematic things as opposed to the aggregators FB and Goog. Amazon I don't even know or want to think about. Not all Big Tech is equally concerning.
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