chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 3, 2019 5:58:50 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 3, 2019 7:45:20 GMT -8
I am concerned we're headed in to another round of trade wars. Like what we faced in the fall. Right now, I'm considering liquidating everything.
I might put them in Closed Ended Funds (CEFs) with a high yield. Anyone have experience with those?
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Post by sponge on Aug 3, 2019 7:59:04 GMT -8
The challenge is trying to figure out what the Chinese will do and then what will Trump do.
Now we have a month before the tariffs take affect. He has postponed increases in the past based on progress.
So will the Chinese wait until Sept 1 to raise on their end? Or will they do it now just to show they are tough guys?
If talks don’t go well he will raise another 10% most likely in Nov. Ironically that would just in time for another ER from Apple.
China is hurting from the tariffs while US economy is not that impacted. Keep in mind that Chinese goods make up a small % of our overall economy. If we buy less from them, it is not the end of the world for the US consumer or retailer.
Now how the market reacts to all this will be a different story. I am starting to change my mindset about the market. I don’t think it forward looking but rather reactionary. If earnings come in soft and GDP get down to 1%, then we could see some serious selling in Oct and Nov.
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Post by sponge on Aug 3, 2019 8:11:14 GMT -8
Regarding Apple I see one other longer term bearish view.
We all know many believe that the 11 will not be the big hit since everyone is waiting for the 5G in 2020. Everything that i am reading indicates that Apple will not lower their prices on the 11 or the 12. They may even increase further on the 12.
60% of iPhones sales are outside of the US. World economies are slowing down quickly in Europe and China. US economy could come out of a recession by Fall of next year but the rest of the world may take longer.
So instead of the massive upgrade everyone is expecting in 2020, we could have a flat or even a third negative year in iPhone sales. US sales can’t make up for the rest of the world.
So my model shows aapl around $125 in Summer of 2020. ( yes it is a year delayed) I think if things play out the way I hypothesizing, then aapl could still be flat or even lower in 2021.
I think this is why they are hanging on to cash and only buying back limited amounts regardless of how low the stock goes. The line in the sand would be 125, because if we break that then we could the stock at $95 in 2021.
Not TA in this analysis. All FA based on historical p/e models.
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Post by silkstone on Aug 3, 2019 16:28:45 GMT -8
Regarding Apple I see one other longer term bearish view. We all know many believe that the 11 will not be the big hit since everyone is waiting for the 5G in 2020. Everything that i am reading indicates that Apple will not lower their prices on the 11 or the 12. They may even increase further on the 12. 60% of iPhones sales are outside of the US. World economies are slowing down quickly in Europe and China. US economy could come out of a recession by Fall of next year but the rest of the world may take longer. So instead of the massive upgrade everyone is expecting in 2020, we could have a flat or even a third negative year in iPhone sales. US sales can’t make up for the rest of the world. So my model shows aapl around $125 in Summer of 2020. ( yes it is a year delayed) I think if things play out the way I hypothesizing, then aapl could still be flat or even lower in 2021. I think this is why they are hanging on to cash and only buying back limited amounts regardless of how low the stock goes. The line in the sand would be 125, because if we break that then we could the stock at $95 in 2021. Not TA in this analysis. All FA based on historical p/e models. What a bozo, you have no idea wtf your talking about. Apple rules
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Post by silkstone on Aug 4, 2019 8:11:56 GMT -8
Regarding Apple I see one other longer term bearish view. We all know many believe that the 11 will not be the big hit since everyone is waiting for the 5G in 2020. Everything that i am reading indicates that Apple will not lower their prices on the 11 or the 12. They may even increase further on the 12. 60% of iPhones sales are outside of the US. World economies are slowing down quickly in Europe and China. US economy could come out of a recession by Fall of next year but the rest of the world may take longer. So instead of the massive upgrade everyone is expecting in 2020, we could have a flat or even a third negative year in iPhone sales. US sales can’t make up for the rest of the world. So my model shows aapl around $125 in Summer of 2020. ( yes it is a year delayed) I think if things play out the way I hypothesizing, then aapl could still be flat or even lower in 2021. the I think this is why they are hanging on to cash and only buying back limited amounts regardless of how low the stock goes. The line in the sand would be 125, because if we break that then we could the stock at $95 in 2021. Not TA in this analysis. All FA based on historical p/e models. What a bozo, you have no idea wtf your talking about. Apple rules The potus is holding Apple and the entire US economy hostage while he persues his tariff negotiation strategy which, given his personal history is probably going to fail. GDP is not in the 4 or 5 percent range he promised and the US debt is 2 trillion higher because he wanted to reward the rich knowing it would never trickle down. I’ve seen several clown asses come on here over the years touting their fool proof options strategies and supposed knowledge of what the future holds for Apple. They are usually intelligent but arrogant people, they last a few months or even a couple years but in the end, they always crash and burn and go out with a whimper. Buy and hold is the way to play this stock!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 4, 2019 8:14:37 GMT -8
What a bozo, you have no idea wtf your talking about. Apple rules This exactly the kind of post we don't need. If you believe something else, tell us what you believe and justify it. But don't come in here and just attack someone. This doesn't even belong in the dungeon. Please respect other members and as a hint...None of us have any idea what we are talking about. BTW your second post was a little better. We all feel the frustration you express and we all have a choice about what we do with it. We seem to be in a time where divide and conquer is the strategy of the day. We know that we are under attack by people who want to use that frustration against us. Tolerance is our most powerful weapon.
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 9:41:07 GMT -8
Where are we going tomorrow.? Pre weekend futures point to a small drop initially in the market.
Given how we recovered from 201 to 204, I think there is enough momentum to take us to 206 when we open. Not so confident we will close the 208 gap created on Friday.
There is lots of chatter that we will go back up to 215 this week. My view is that we will have a hard fast flush to 190 with another one down to 180 the week of OE. Nothing is guaranteed however.
The SPY is accelerating towards a steep downward move and it will take Apple with it.
Apple guidance indicated a possible scenario of growth YOY in Q4. That was the news WS needed to hike the price targets. The problem is that MFI is showing money coming out of the stock.
I learned from last year that price targets are meaningless since they are reactionary. Last year everyone had $250-$290 price targets in Oct when aapl was at 233. We went to $146 three months later and many cut their targets really quick. When we hit $140 this Dec. again it will show how out of touch those analysts are.
The simple rule of selling the stock at when RSI is at 75 and buying at 30 will give you at least 25% return every year. The last 5 years buy and hold folks got 12%.
I am still of the opinion that the last 10 years we were very unique because of the mobile revolution and the bull market. The next 10 years we will need a new hit product to take us to the next $2 - $3 trillion market cap.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 4, 2019 11:51:32 GMT -8
Come for the news articles. Stay for the political banter. Leave once the astrology/fortune telling begins.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 4, 2019 12:51:32 GMT -8
The simple rule of selling the stock at when RSI is at 75 and buying at 30 will give you at least 25% return every year. The last 5 years buy and hold folks got 12%.Would you mind posting a link to the source from which you got your 12% figure, sponge, or show your calculations? TIA
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 13:24:16 GMT -8
I was calculating from 133 to 233 the high points of the last 5 years.
Yes if you timed it right you got 22% from your lows. That just happened to match exactly 5 years ago.
My 25% in swing trading was a very conservative estimate. I went ahead a did the math. I was way off by 3x
If you bought when RSI was 30 or lower and sold anytime RSI was 72 or higher. Of course you would have to time exactly at the lows and the highs.
You would have made 66% a year. Yes 66%a year. That is not on options but the stock. That 1158% in 5 years. This is why you see so many private jets in the world.
Apply starting investment at $10 million and you will get $125 million in 5 years. If you add margin of 50% you could double that to $225 million
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 13:37:12 GMT -8
So if you bought at the highs of every year and sold at the lows, you would be very negative even though the stock is up over 5 years. The only way to time that right is to use TA.
YOY we are now down 12%. A year from now if you bought at $221 last week and sold at what I think will be the high will be next year of $180 you would be down another 17%. Versus if you bought at 142 in January and sold at 221 and then bought again at 145 when I think RSI will hit 30 again in Dec and sold at 180 you will be up 80% instead of buying and holding. I believe a year from now everyone who bought this year will be down anywhere from 45% to 12%.
Again I don’t think the buy and hold folks will get 22% in the next 5 years. I think it will be closer to 14% which is still a very good return.
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 14:04:39 GMT -8
Futures look to open red in 10 min.
Also if any who thinks that someone is timing the tweets from Trump and goes short, then Chinese should do the same. Suck in all the bulls and then short before announcing retaliation.
Much easier this time.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 4, 2019 14:14:59 GMT -8
So if you bought at the highs of every year and sold at the lows, you would be very negative even though the stock is up over 5 years. The only way to time that right is to use TA.I made ~1500% over the past two years without using TA or astrology.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 4, 2019 14:17:09 GMT -8
Futures look to open red in 10 min. Also if any who thinks that someone is timing the tweets from Trump and goes short, then Chinese should do the same. Suck in all the bulls and then short before announcing retaliation. Much easier this time. Futures mean absolutely nothing this early. It's like a weather forecast 4 months from now.
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 14:19:34 GMT -8
So if you bought at the highs of every year and sold at the lows, you would be very negative even though the stock is up over 5 years. The only way to time that right is to use TA.I made ~1500% over the past two years without using TA or astrology. Sure if you bought options and was bullish after three major corrections in Feb last year, Dec, and May this year.
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 14:22:55 GMT -8
Futures look to open red in 10 min. Also if any who thinks that someone is timing the tweets from Trump and goes short, then Chinese should do the same. Suck in all the bulls and then short before announcing retaliation. Much easier this time. Futures mean absolutely nothing this early. It's like a weather forecast 4 months from now. I find that if sentiment is bearish like now 90% of the time futures stay red from minute 1 and same in the other direction. We will see how we look in 8 hours. Asia is not looking good and Europe closed down 3.5%. Oil is down almost 1% which also signals further selling in am.
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 14:42:31 GMT -8
I want us to open green tomorrow
Want to buy my puts at 206-208
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 4, 2019 15:21:29 GMT -8
I was calculating from 133 to 233 the high points of the last 5 years. OK, I now understand *what* you did...I just don't understand *why* you did that. That makes no logical sense. Yes if you timed it right you got 22% from your lows. That just happened to match exactly 5 years ago. If I timed it right? You do understand that there are many, many AAPL Longs on AFB who have held the stock for well over 10 or 15 years. It has *nothing* to do with timing since that's the point of "Buy and Hold". You made a statement regarding the average yield of AAPL Longs over the last 5 years which I knew was incorrect. So I took the most recent closing price and compared it to the share price from exactly 5 years ago. Easy Peasy. No timing involved. If you continue to make statements that are clearly not true, e.g., "The last 5 years buy and hold folks got 12%.", it will continue to reflect on the credibility of your other comments. My 25% in swing trading was a very conservative estimate. I went ahead a did the math. I was way off by 3x If you bought when RSI was 30 or lower and sold anytime RSI was 72 or higher. Of course you would have to time exactly at the lows and the highs. You would have made 66% a year. Yes 66%a year. That is not on options but the stock. That 1158% in 5 years. This is why you see so many private jets in the world. I've heard of only one investor, other than Buffet or an Apple employee that owns a portfolio valued over $100 million and he's a member of AFB. Don't know if he has a private jet but please let me know if you know any swing traders who have done anywhere nearly as well as he did. Apply starting investment at $10 million and you will get $125 million in 5 years. If you add margin of 50% you could double that to $225 million Great advice, sponge! Now all you need to do is find someone with $10 million willing to test your theory over the next 5 years.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 4, 2019 15:40:19 GMT -8
Sponge,
Ever think about using a GoFundMe account to apply your methodology and make yourself and contributors very rich?
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 15:43:03 GMT -8
Lucky I am only responding back because I am in a very good mood and generous with my time right now. Same for Mercel who takes personal shots all the time. The rest I just ignore and dont really care what they think of me or my ideas.
I used those numbers because it is at ATH when retail investors get sucked in. Price targets are the highest and most here see nothing but great times for TC and his company. I was one of those two years ago. 2012 was when sky was the limit in iPad sales at 707, 2015 was when iPhone is back after 45% sales gain with the 6 and the stock at 133, and then 233 when everyone said the X is the future and services will be king at 233.
To test my theory, you will have to watch for an obscure article where an anonymous donor contributes $125 million to a Health institution in the next 10 years. And about $50 million more to various Universities here in the US and Europe.
I think the market will be very volatile next year and when Trump gets re elected we will explode from the lows of next summer. But the 30 to 70 RSI moves will continue as long as there is a market. Apple is the most traded in options along with the SPY which also follow the same rules.
Also noticed that both the SPY and QQQ have reached a bottom for selling in MFI. Will have to watch how they react as money come back in for two days or so.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 4, 2019 16:25:12 GMT -8
Sponge,
Calling you an entertainer isn’t a personal shot. My replies to your posts w/humor mixed with a little sarcasm isn’t either.
Go with what works for you but yeah, your price targets do get a little tiresome. Apparently, that kind of feedback from myself and others is lost on you.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 4, 2019 17:18:47 GMT -8
This discussion has whetted my appetite for tracking RSI. I looked up how to calculate it and it doesn't look that hard, but can anyone point me to a place where I can see RSI over time? Thanks in advance
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Post by nwjade on Aug 4, 2019 17:32:08 GMT -8
This discussion has whetted my appetite for tracking RSI. I looked up how to calculate it and it doesn't look that hard, but can anyone point me to a place where I can see RSI over time? Thanks in advance I use stockcharts.com
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 4, 2019 18:18:18 GMT -8
It’s still early but futures just turned deep red, which bodes ill for the open.
BTD....AAPL and BA
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Post by sponge on Aug 4, 2019 18:36:05 GMT -8
Hong Kong is about to come to a halt due to strikes.
They are now asking for Independence from China.
Volume is very high for futures. We will open down 1-2% tomorrow
That flush I was anticipating may come sooner then I thought.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Aug 5, 2019 3:18:16 GMT -8
Hong Kong is about to come to a halt due to strikes. They are now asking for Independence from China. Volume is very high for futures. We will open down 1-2% tomorrow That flush I was anticipating may come sooner then I thought. What? Are there problems in this communist workers utopia? Maybe the world will get a glimpse into China’s methods of negotiating.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Aug 5, 2019 5:52:58 GMT -8
What? Are there problems in this communist workers utopia? Maybe the world will get a glimpse into China’s methods of negotiating. Tiananmen square again ?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Aug 5, 2019 6:02:15 GMT -8
What? Are there problems in this communist workers utopia? Maybe the world will get a glimpse into China’s methods of negotiating. Tiananmen square again ? I’m sure most of the retaliation will be kept secret. Friends, family and property are all at risk.
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Post by david on Aug 5, 2019 6:42:24 GMT -8
This discussion has whetted my appetite for tracking RSI. I looked up how to calculate it and it doesn't look that hard, but can anyone point me to a place where I can see RSI over time? Thanks in advance Here’s my TA. Including RSI. You can customize it. Originally by Mace. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07012388667
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