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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 14:03:14 GMT -8
A return to two weeks ago of 509. Here is Wisconsin, a movie and football marathon going thru to the Rose Bowl Lord of The Rings 2001: A Space Odyssey Father Goose The Cowboys Casablanca The King's Speech Erin Brockovich Push Serenity and Packers versus the Vikings. I'm open to more suggestions. Mocha with schnapps is coming up.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 28, 2012 14:27:29 GMT -8
I played golf in 47 degree weather yesterday and had 3 margaritas. My give a shit factor is dropping daily. The media is out of control, I hate to even turn the TV on.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 28, 2012 15:01:27 GMT -8
OK, so now after all this time the Senate is going to craft a bill and put it on the floor for a vote on Sunday. And why has the Senate just been sitting on their hands until now? I hate politicians.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 15:03:41 GMT -8
And if the bare bones minimum deal gets sent to the House - they will knock it down. So wtf? Still don't see where we are?
Obama is the only person who isn't up for re-election and he just left the task to the guy who hasn't produced a budget in years. What a joke.
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Post by alice on Dec 28, 2012 15:15:13 GMT -8
I am waiting for Sunday to know what the deal looks like.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 15:32:42 GMT -8
I am waiting for Sunday to know what the deal looks like. What other choice do you have?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 15:37:23 GMT -8
In retrospect - when they wrote the law on the fiscal cliff - they should have written a clause that said they should all be fired if they can't do their job and they send us over. Furthermore, they may not seek re-election for the rest of their miserable lives.
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Post by alice on Dec 28, 2012 15:37:56 GMT -8
I am waiting for Sunday to know what the deal looks like. What other choice do you have? None.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 15:41:23 GMT -8
What other choice do you have? None. I think I will turn off all business news and political news. Get a bottle of wine and rent a movie. Need to calm down and get my mind off of this...I can't control it so will need to see what happens. This is where I wish I was more of a technician. Doesn't matter if it is up or down - price dictates your actions - it is unemotional. So far from who I am but need to master it.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 15:44:08 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 15:46:25 GMT -8
WOW - I think I better go pop some blood pressure pills.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 15:46:43 GMT -8
AFB search and rescue with Telly Savalas: www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8jJxKTFXPcThis long quarter of constantly re-doing spreadsheets has made me change my trading style. To what, I have not decided.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 17:15:56 GMT -8
AFB search and rescue with Telly Savalas: www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8jJxKTFXPcThis long quarter of constantly re-doing spreadsheets has made me change my trading style. To what, I have not decided. Change it to EW. EW does not change with time. Every other style involves looking at past performances. When the present is unprecedented, the past will only hurt you.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 17:44:50 GMT -8
I think I will turn off all business news and political news. Get a bottle of wine and rent a movie. Need to calm down and get my mind off of this...I can't control it so will need to see what happens. This is where I wish I was more of a technician. Doesn't matter if it is up or down - price dictates your actions - it is unemotional. So far from who I am but need to master it. All good in theory, but today was one almighty chopfest. If you want to waste a bundle jumping in and out and handing all your profits and more to your broker, then fine, but I get rather tired of doing that. I had so many broken trend lines today my charts looked like a game of Kerplunk. Then when we finally looked like breaking out, this bloody fiscal cliff bollocks kicked us in the nuts. I suppose the one bright point is that it looks like AAPL is fresh out of weak longs and there is healthy support below. Earnings is just over 3 weeks away, and if AAPL is going to run higher into that (and I really don't know whether it will) then most big funds will be starting their accumulation around now.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 18:37:12 GMT -8
Joe with some of his friends this week:
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 18:38:31 GMT -8
I think I will turn off all business news and political news. Get a bottle of wine and rent a movie. Need to calm down and get my mind off of this...I can't control it so will need to see what happens. This is where I wish I was more of a technician. Doesn't matter if it is up or down - price dictates your actions - it is unemotional. So far from who I am but need to master it. All good in theory, but today was one almighty chopfest. If you want to waste a bundle jumping in and out and handing all your profits and more to your broker, then fine, but I get rather tired of doing that. I had so many broken trend lines today my charts looked like a game of Kerplunk. Then when we finally looked like breaking out, this bloody fiscal cliff bollocks kicked us in the nuts. I suppose the one bright point is that it looks like AAPL is fresh out of weak longs and there is healthy support below. Earnings is just over 3 weeks away, and if AAPL is going to run higher into that (and I really don't know whether it will) then most big funds will be starting their accumulation around now. My charts look like crap too. I'm not going to bother posting an EW chart until after Monday because no count looks good and there are too many potential counts that are giving me headaches. I was actually going to nibble on some bull spreads if we crossed yesterday's HOD, which we would have without the extracurricular activity at the end.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 19:21:27 GMT -8
(...)This is where I wish I was more of a technician. Doesn't matter if it is up or down - price dictates your actions - it is unemotional. So far from who I am but need to master it. Um, ideally. You should hear me swearing at the market while watching charts. (...)All good in theory, but today was one almighty chopfest. (...)I had so many broken trend lines today my charts looked like a game of Kerplunk. Ah, Birdie. You beat me to it. My thoughts exactly! My charts look like crap too. I'm not going to bother posting an EW chart until after Monday because no count looks good and there are too many potential counts that are giving me headaches. +1 on the headaches!
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Post by prazan on Dec 28, 2012 19:27:41 GMT -8
Thanks to Tuffet, who posted interesting data on the demographic differences between those who use Android vs iOS devices. Take a look at page 4 of today's intraday if interested. The data helps explain why iOS devices are put to heavier data and commercial use.
JD also mentioned that he signed up for a free trial of Amazon Prime, which he used heavily and intends to dump. Anyone with a baby (are you listening Vitalogy?) can sign up for a free year of Prime shipping. I signed up three years ago and they still ship me stuff for free, having neglected to cancel my Prime membership.
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Post by nkmho on Dec 28, 2012 20:05:35 GMT -8
JD also mentioned that he signed up for a free trial of Amazon Prime, which he used heavily and intends to dump. Anyone with a baby (are you listening Vitalogy?) can sign up for a free year of Prime shipping. I signed up three years ago and they still ship me stuff for free, having neglected to cancel my Prime membership. Things must've been a lot different when you signed up, as when I did it last year, it Prime was only 6 months. Now, it's down to 3 months.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 28, 2012 20:19:29 GMT -8
JD also mentioned that he signed up for a free trial of Amazon Prime, which he used heavily and intends to dump. Anyone with a baby (are you listening Vitalogy?) can sign up for a free year of Prime shipping. I signed up three years ago and they still ship me stuff for free, having neglected to cancel my Prime membership. Things must've been a lot different when you signed up, as when I did it last year, it Prime was only 6 months. Now, it's down to 3 months. I just looked and it says 1 month, then $79/yr. Christmas must have really put a hurting on them. Honestly, I do not understand the Prime model, most of what I buy I can find with free shipping with a $25 purchase. I will put stuff in the cart and wait.
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Post by alice on Dec 28, 2012 21:09:55 GMT -8
I suppose the one bright point is that it looks like AAPL is fresh out of weak longs and there is healthy support below. Earnings is just over 3 weeks away, and if AAPL is going to run higher into that (and I really don't know whether it will) then most big funds will be starting their accumulation around now. Could it be tax selling is subsiding.
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Post by prazan on Dec 28, 2012 21:15:27 GMT -8
JD also mentioned that he signed up for a free trial of Amazon Prime, which he used heavily and intends to dump. Anyone with a baby (are you listening Vitalogy?) can sign up for a free year of Prime shipping. I signed up three years ago and they still ship me stuff for free, having neglected to cancel my Prime membership. Things must've been a lot different when you signed up, as when I did it last year, it Prime was only 6 months. Now, it's down to 3 months. They keep shrinking the service, it seems. Mark, the one month deal is the regular trial. Amazon Mom gives a few more months. Not many more months any more, though.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 28, 2012 21:47:13 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on Dec 29, 2012 4:08:15 GMT -8
Pulled up the five and ten year charts for a longer perspective. The 5 year chart reminded me of the 20 mile march concept in the book "Great By Choice". (Summary link)In my dealings with various business units at Apple the last few years (education, federal sales, iOS engineering) it became clear to me the company has a '20 Mile March' system in place. We all saw a glimpse of this with Steve Jobs' line about "innovating through the down turn" from back in 2000/2001. It has not been about growth at any cost for at least a decade. Instead it is about *planned* growth, ruthlessly executed. Why 20 Mile Marchers Win:
The 20 Mile March is more than a philosophy. It’s about having concrete, clear, intelligent, and rigorously pursued performance mechanisms that keep you on track. The 20 Mile March, just like Amundsen and his team, creates two types of self-imposed discomfort: 1. The discomfort of unwavering commitment to high performance in difficult conditions. 2. The discomfort of holding back in good conditions.
To achieve consistent performance, you need both parts of the 20 Mile March: a lower bound and an upper bound, a hurdle that you jump over and a ceiling that you will not rise above, the ambition to achieve, and the self-control to hold back.
20 Mile Marching helps turn the odds in your favor for three reasons: 1. It builds confidence in your ability to perform well in adverse circumstances. 2. It reduces the likelihood of catastrophe when you are hit by turbulent disruption. 3. It helps you exert self-control in an out of control environment.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 29, 2012 6:08:34 GMT -8
I played golf in 47 degree weather yesterday and had 3 margaritas. My give a shit factor is dropping daily. The media is out of control, I hate to even turn the TV on. I thought you never golfed in sub-60 weather! I hear you on that one Mark. Getting very numb at this point. My wine consumption has definitely increased this past month. Go Pack (from a desperate Bears fan - ugh) :-)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2012 7:29:07 GMT -8
Fear my Seahawks....all of you....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2012 8:33:27 GMT -8
This is incredibly bullish news out of China..... blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/12/28/aapl-ipad-mini-sells-out-in-hong-kong-says-topeka/Topeka Capital Markets’s Brian White this morning reiterates a Buy rating on Apple (AAPL) shares and a $1,111 price target, writing that his “checks” are “pointing to an insatiable appetite in both Hong Kong and China for the iPad mini, leading to further supply constraints in recent days,” following the introduction of the smaller iPad on November 2nd in the special administrative region and on December 7th on the mainland. White says there have been stock-outs of the mini at Apple stores on the mainland and a complete sell-out at all three Apple stores in Hong Kong: With the December opening of a new Apple retail store in Hong Kong (Causeway Bay) and a September opening in Kowloon, Apple now has three stores in Hong Kong versus just one store a year ago. Our checks indicate that the iPad mini sold out in Hong Kong this week for nearly all models, while the fourth generation iPad remains in stock. In fact, our research suggests the iPad mini is currently more popular in Hong Kong than the fourth generation iPad […] In the December quarter, Apple opened new retail stores in Shenzhen, Chengdu and Beijing to expand its presence in China. As such, Apple now has eight retail stores in China versus five stores a year ago. Our research is pointing to very strong demand for the iPad mini in China and this is leading to stock-outs this week. Similar to Hong Kong, we are being told by contacts in China that the iPad mini is already more popular than the fourth generation iPad. Prior to the China launch, we indicated that the iPad mini would be the “next big thing in China” and we believe this phenomenon is starting to develop. In our view, the smaller form factor and lower price point will allow Apple to sell the iPad mini in more meaningful volumes versus the regular-size iPad. The iPhone 5, moreover, has “met with strong demand,” after the older 4S was brushed aside by Samsung Electronic’s (005930KS) Galaxy S III and “Galaxy Note“: After the Galaxy S III and Galaxy Note I/II became more popular than the iPhone 4S in recent months, our discussions now indicate that the iPhone 5 has recently become the most popular high-end smartphone at the resellers that we spoke with. ------------------------------- Combine this with cancelled vacation/holiday for several production lines at Foxcomm over the Lunar New Year celebration period and I am rapidly moving more toward a belief that the next two quarters of Apple earnings will surprise to the upside. Once we get to June the YOY com parables get much more favorable. With new products in March and perhaps June, the momentum can keep building.. I've tweaked my conservative spreadsheet to now forecast $14.62 to be reported in three weeks. I may be light still.....
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Post by appledoc on Dec 29, 2012 8:36:22 GMT -8
Just gave it a quick glance. This is nice data. I don't quite understand the A/D stuff though.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 29, 2012 8:41:09 GMT -8
I thought you never golfed in sub-60 weather! I hear you on that one Mark. Getting very numb at this point. My wine consumption has definitely increased this past month. Go Pack (from a desperate Bears fan - ugh) :-) As long as the course is not windy and the usual precautions, even 40 is fine. Course superintendents will advise on frost. (Frost will delay the morning rounds.) Packers will prevail. I'm not one to pour blood on the Bears since I have Packer blood as old as most anybody alive.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2012 9:51:10 GMT -8
I'll give it a shot. Metrics have to jump out as intuitively informative, for me to get excited about them., hard fast rules of interpretation. Don't hold your breath too long.
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