bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 3, 2019 6:35:56 GMT -8
Never done this before. Fix it if it’s wrong. Keep it civil boys, it looks nasty out there
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 3, 2019 7:04:13 GMT -8
Never done this before. Fix it if it’s wrong. Keep it civil boys, it looks nasty out there links:
"We are doing very well in our negotiations with China" (donald j trump via twitter)
"trade wars are good, and easy to win" (donald j trump via twitter, march 2, 2018)
also interesting chart referenced in the tweet below (wsj)... note virtually no change in intent to move manufacturing out of china - and intent to move from china to us is *lower* today (in 2019) than in 2015.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 3, 2019 7:31:11 GMT -8
no need to rehash full arguments (the curious can look) - but my main point is essentially that trump's trade war has only really escalated recently (may 2019) but has now grown to the point of becoming THE dominant factor for AAPL... call it the elephant in the room, the 800lb gorilla, the volcano near cupertino... doesn't matter, the outsized effect is clear...
Don't be stubborn. Just sell, and find something that works better for your time horizon."
hmm, ok... let's put my core long aapl aside... i decided to swing-trade aapl in january with a april-may timeframe for rebound... i was essentially 'right' where apple fundamentals are concerned, but assumed (incorrectly) that trump's trade talk was mostly bluster, and he'd get his team to do a deal by early may... ah my bad, and mea culpa... should I now sell out of apple - the company i know, love and understand - because of trump? for 1 or 5 years (as you correctly pointed out)?
or maybe i can trade this, after all, as there seems to be a heavy cloud of ash (you know, from the volcano) over apple's valuation?
i bought the 170s in june for 'swing trade 3' (even shorter timeframe) and sold above $200 a month later i was hoping (in vain) that earnings would finally push it above $220 to get out of my 'swing trade 2' - but that hasn't happened, pretty clearly due to tariffs uncertainty
so make it clear: ...i do intend to stay in aapl, as i believe (like you probably do) that it is the best investment around overall and for the long-term
...i intend to continue to swing-trade as well, as i've been successful doing so, even if not perfectly so ...i think it's prudent to keep the big volcano in mind when reporting relevant apple links (like i did above)... as that's the biggest effect on aapl currently ...when the 'volcano' spews particularly stupid s**t... i might comment on it... seeking no offense to the volcano lovers
cheers to the longs!
(not yet btfd territory today imo)
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 3, 2019 7:52:20 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 3, 2019 8:22:03 GMT -8
If my reelection depended on the stock market, I would use trade wars to keep it depressed until maybe June of 2020, then end it, claim “mission accomplished” and ride the relief surge through November. Like Lily Tomlin once said, “no matter how cynical I try to be, I just can’t keep up”
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 3, 2019 8:45:00 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Sept 3, 2019 9:22:15 GMT -8
The AirPods Replacement Trade! So many AirPods have been lost in New York City subway tracks in recent months that the MTA is considering initiating a public service announcement urging commuters to refrain from taking AirPods on or off while entering or exiting trains. Apparently a Friend of Ours lets call him Gene has been through 10 Pairs! - over at Macrumors. AirPod diving on the Subway $$
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Post by silkstone on Sept 3, 2019 10:28:52 GMT -8
Yep, the best thing that can happen for Apple and the stock market is for trump to be gone. The guy is just too eratic.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 3, 2019 10:39:54 GMT -8
Let’s see, bottom falling out of iPhone sales, Apple could be the next Nokia, apple credit card will be no big deal, Apple services are underwhelming. Those are just some of the negative themes in Goldman Sachs Apple notes over the last several months. I’m not sure if this part of a larger strategy or why Goldman has such a hard on for 🍎.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Sept 3, 2019 11:52:26 GMT -8
Let’s see, bottom falling out of iPhone sales, Apple could be the next Nokia, apple credit card will be no big deal, Apple services are underwhelming. Those are just some of the negative themes in Goldman Sachs Apple notes over the last several months. I’m not sure if this part of a larger strategy or why Goldman has such a hard on for 🍎. Particularly given that Goldman and have just gone into joint venture on the Apple Credit Card, but maybe The Great Vampire Squid just can't stray to much from it's true nature.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 3, 2019 12:10:32 GMT -8
Let’s see, bottom falling out of iPhone sales, Apple could be the next Nokia, apple credit card will be no big deal, Apple services are underwhelming. Those are just some of the negative themes in Goldman Sachs Apple notes over the last several months. I’m not sure if this part of a larger strategy or why Goldman has such a hard on for 🍎. Particularly given that Goldman and have just gone into joint venture on the Apple Credit Card, but maybe The Great Vampire Squid just can't stray to much from it's true nature.
folks both of these links are from mid-july; let's not cry too much over milk spilled 6 weeks ago
although the bullish one ($250 pt) is the same guy who gave an interview this morning about tariffs... i linked to it above
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Post by longsince98 on Sept 3, 2019 12:28:00 GMT -8
Let’s see, bottom falling out of iPhone sales, Apple could be the next Nokia, apple credit card will be no big deal, Apple services are underwhelming. Those are just some of the negative themes in Goldman Sachs Apple notes over the last several months. I’m not sure if this part of a larger strategy or why Goldman has such a hard on for 🍎. Since GS (one of the most savvy financial institutions) has so commonly been bearish on AAPL, I’ve always assumed they have a misleading agenda in their “analyst” notes. I assume they try and deflate the price of AAPL in order to benefit major purchasers. Aren’t they the company who manages Apple’s own share buy backs? (motivated to drive shares lower) This is certainly a simplistic view, and knowing conspiracy theories are usually born from limited knowledge, I just discount anything GS have to say.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 3, 2019 12:46:26 GMT -8
Let’s see, bottom falling out of iPhone sales, Apple could be the next Nokia, apple credit card will be no big deal, Apple services are underwhelming. Those are just some of the negative themes in Goldman Sachs Apple notes over the last several months. I’m not sure if this part of a larger strategy or why Goldman has such a hard on for 🍎. Since GS (one of the most savvy financial institutions) has so commonly been bearish on AAPL, I’ve always assumed they have a misleading agenda in their “analyst” notes. I assume they try and deflate the price of AAPL in order to benefit major purchasers. Aren’t they the company who manages Apple’s own share buy backs? (motivated to drive shares lower) This is certainly a simplistic view, and knowing conspiracy theories are usually born from limited knowledge, I just discount anything GS have to say. if they are the firm managing buybacks for Apple, that would prolly explain it. Thanks
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 3, 2019 13:15:58 GMT -8
Yep, the best thing that can happen for Apple and the stock market is for trump to be gone. The guy is just too eratic. That’s funny, the Dow is up 40% and AAPL is up about 70% since Trump was elected. I’m sure CEOs and investors would much rather have the higher taxes and regulations and antitrust enforcement that the socialists like Bernie and Fauxchahantas are promising. 🙄
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 3, 2019 13:35:00 GMT -8
folks both of these links are from mid-july; let's not cry too much over milk spilled 6 weeks ago
Thanks for pointing that out. I will try to be more careful in the future.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 3, 2019 16:07:12 GMT -8
Yep, the best thing that can happen for Apple and the stock market is for trump to be gone. The guy is just too eratic. That’s funny, the Dow is up 40% and AAPL is up about 70% since Trump was elected. I’m sure CEOs and investors would much rather have the higher taxes and regulations and antitrust enforcement that the socialists like Bernie and Fauxchahantas are promising. 🙄 Bookmarked. And pay no mind to the exploding national debt that will eventually be paid down the road.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 3, 2019 16:09:35 GMT -8
If my reelection depended on the stock market, I would use trade wars to keep it depressed until maybe June of 2020, then end it, claim “mission accomplished” and ride the relief surge through November. Exactly! Well, mostly. I don't think he'd (or anyone in his position) pass up on a great win in the mean time if a trade agreement slanted in the US's favor came about. But I could see how a political strategist would love to have one big ugly thing that all of their opponents attack, and then negate that. And really, I personally don't expect a full agreement soon, and might give 50/50 odds on it happening in the next 6-9 months. I mean, it's enough that I would tell someone else, who also understands that this is an ongoing thing and yet is in underwater options that expire in 4.5 months, something like Don't be stubborn. Just sell, and find something that works better for your time horizon." In chatting with a Helicopter Nurse while on a beautiful ride above Lake Tahoe today, we both had the same feeling about potentially riding a sketchy area that was coming up, that also happened to be on a 60 or 70 degree (not percent) sideslope with a great view of (and tumble to) Sand Harbor 1600 feet below. Risk vs Reward. We'd both rather walk the couple 20 foot areas, and not have the risk of being unable to continue today's ride or for that matter any other ride in the future. Options, short or medium term, may work out just fine. Or they might not. Right now there's a bit more potential risk or volatility, and it's not as controllable by Apple. Realize that, and decide. I guess I'm getting old and a little more risk adverse, but I know what I would advise.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 3, 2019 17:29:45 GMT -8
That’s funny, the Dow is up 40% and AAPL is up about 70% since Trump was elected. I’m sure CEOs and investors would much rather have the higher taxes and regulations and antitrust enforcement that the socialists like Bernie and Fauxchahantas are promising. 🙄 Bookmarked. And pay no mind to the exploding national debt that will eventually be paid down the road. Yeah well I'm sure the Democrat 2020 field, tripping over each other to give away "free" everything, will cut the deficits really quickly. A CA Dem was actually talking about dropping money out of helicopters, and not a single word about paying for any of it. A government founded under the principle of protecting private property is now the #1 thief of it. The ship has sailed on the national debt. Anyone who tried to cut spending by one penny would be vilified as a heartless meanie, "but just tax the rich!" Impossible for anyone to do anything about spending because nobody pays enough attention to care. So might as well stop worrying and learn to love the deficits. Drudge had articles today about a Dem Senator wanting to send Zuckerburg to jail, and state AG's wanting to break up Google with antitrust laws. And you think Democrats would be better for big tech investors? LOL. Keep appeasing the Gospel of envy. Don't worry, it will eat you last!
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 3, 2019 18:11:06 GMT -8
Amazing that JD took the bait. That Trump charisma must be so mesmerizing... I’ll be kind and skip Trump's contribution to the national debt (where ignorance is bliss ‘’tis folly to be wise, right?)
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 3, 2019 19:40:16 GMT -8
I personally don't expect a full agreement soon, and might give 50/50 odds on it happening in the next 6-9 months. I mean, it's enough that I would tell someone else, who also understands that this is an ongoing thing and yet is in underwater options that expire in 4.5 months, something like Don't be stubborn. Just sell, and find something that works better for your time horizon. like the old monty python clip... are you insinuating something?'assume' means 'make an ass out of you and me'... you assumed i'm in options expiring in 4.5 months, and that they're underwater, but: ...the options are not underwater ...they're not expiring in 4.5 months ...so far they're all nicely green and will remain so unless trump goes completely batshit crazy on trade (peter navarro level crazy) swing trade 2 = buy leaps in jan ($150). aim to sell at $220. still ongoing, though original expected timeframe was may swing trade 3 = buy nearer-term calls at $175 (early june) and sell at $200 (early july). completed successfully i admit there's been more trading opportunities than i've been able to take advantage of... the volcano has continued to surprise
🤷
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Post by macster on Sept 4, 2019 5:38:39 GMT -8
After returning here from a few days off I see the politics continue in the daily threads. Lol
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 4, 2019 6:15:31 GMT -8
'assume' means 'make an ass out of you and me'... you assumed i'm in options expiring in 4.5 months, and that they're underwater, but: ...the options are not underwater ...they're not expiring in 4.5 months ...so far they're all nicely green and will remain so unless trump goes completely batshit crazy on trade (peter navarro level crazy) To quote another movie, "what we have here is a failure to communicate". You said you had Jan options where you needed $220 to make a profit. But I have no skin in your trade, so do what you like. Good luck. OTOH, I do have an interest in keeping this board on topic and going. Please cut the off-topic political posts or name calling, Walter. This is the AAPL Finance Board.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 4, 2019 6:53:14 GMT -8
'assume' means 'make an ass out of you and me'... you assumed i'm in options expiring in 4.5 months, and that they're underwater, but: ...the options are not underwater ...they're not expiring in 4.5 months ...so far they're all nicely green and will remain so unless trump goes completely batshit crazy on trade (peter navarro level crazy) To quote another movie, "what we have here is a failure to communicate". You said you had Jan options where you needed $220 to make a profit. But I have no skin in your trade, so do what you like. Good luck.
yes, we do have a failure to communicate, mr prison warden... "You said you had Jan options where you needed $220 to make a profit" no i didn't:
to clarify and drop it for good:
"$215 would be such a tease! when i bought the dip aggressively in January (calls) i had $220 as the mental target to exit the swing trade..."
...i *bought* the options this past january (at pretty attractive prices when aapl was $150)... i didn't say what expiration date they are (they're 2021 leaps) ...my *target* was $220, and it was nearly reached twice by aapl based on fundamentals (reactions to earnings) ...i continue to swing trade in addition ...i think aapl would be at ATH's *today* if not for trade war... this leaves additional risk (of course) but also opportunity (should a deal be reached)
*you* were the one to first make fun of me for 'having a hissy fit' any time aapl dips (you even added cramer-style 'SELL SELL SELL!') and then actually recommended not being stubborn and selling.
i appreciate the concern and advice... though it won't (and shouldn't) stop my comments on what most affects aapl stock these days, which is donald j trump.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 4, 2019 7:01:39 GMT -8
though it won't (and shouldn't) stop my comments on what most affects aapl stock these days, which is donald j trump. I bought, sold, talked, and even traded AAPL options for years, at TMF and a defunct group from Blue Herring. Giving a month for expiration is always referred to as the closest one, and non-soonest Jan options are referred to as leaps. That wasn't communicated, so yes it was a failure. FWIW, the President's twitter feed around the trade war might make for the quickest gyrations in the market, but Apple and it's customers still affect AAPL stock the most. Don't lose sight of that.
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Post by larrydoyle on Sept 4, 2019 12:34:41 GMT -8
DJI
January 30, 2009: 8000.86 September 16, 2011: 11509.09
Up 44%
AAPL
January 30, 2009: $12.:88 (adjusted) September 2, 2011: $53:44 (adjusted)
Up 415%
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