chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2019 5:00:12 GMT -8
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Sept 13, 2019 5:18:15 GMT -8
meh. the world needs less ANALysts, particularly like those wankers from the vampire squid crew. Apple TV+ and Arcade are going to be slam-dunks, free cash flow basically. Will it cut into bottom line? Doubtful, if anything it will expand the pie (Apple's) and take a share of what was previously going to netflix/kodi/hulu.
Disney and TV+ will be the go-to subscription services, as Netflix continues to lose content as places will bring it back in-house once contracts expire with them. I'd like to see Apple do bundles with TV+, Arcade, News+ for a single discounted price.
The free year of TV+ with a hardware purchase is a great incentive, and Apple can easily afford it without it having large negative effects. If anything, it's a nice hook to keep people in the ecosystem and get them to try something they might not otherwise. It's like the continuous free trials of Amazon Prime - would I pay for prime? Probably not. But having it for free means Amazon is the first place to look when shopping for something online. That's still a win for Amazon, and free(ish) TV+ will be too for Apple.
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Post by sponge on Sept 13, 2019 5:23:49 GMT -8
We will see how long this mini sell off will last, but I don’t see 234 next week after the GS downgrade. Bad timing on my part with my small call position.
GS jumped the gun in really taking us down. Still waiting for RSI to go up after this mini sell off before I get into those Nov puts.
I don’t see 165 but we will get close in the next 4 months.
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Post by plcm123 on Sept 13, 2019 5:28:19 GMT -8
First of all the free AppleTv+ will add more hardware sales making the $5/mo for a year negligible. In addition those who don’t buy or upgrade the hardware will add/buy the AppleTv+ subscription. The ‘loss’ of existing income doesn’t exist since it’s new services.
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Post by michelc on Sept 13, 2019 5:39:05 GMT -8
First of all the free AppleTv+ will add more hardware sales making the $5/mo for a year negligible. In addition those who don’t buy or upgrade the hardware will add/buy the AppleTv+ subscription. The ‘loss’ of existing income doesn’t exist since it’s new services. So basically , GS say’s that q1 will be impacted negatively but omit that Q2 and Q3 (slower Q) will be impacted positively. In the end the amount of $ is the same over a 12 months period. With services and deferred revenu the swing between Q will be less dramatic overtime and more straightened As an accountant I call this GS piece, creative accounting. You can manipulate the numbers any way you want but in the long term they will always come the same. Once again pro analysts at it’s worst. People will see the headline and assume something wrong when they are increasing value and shifting income from one q to the other.
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Post by sponge on Sept 13, 2019 5:50:48 GMT -8
We forget that the biggest factor of increasing Service sales growth was the music subscriptions. WS loved those 60 million subscribers therefore the Video services was what will keep that growth going.
Without serious revenue from Apple+ service revenue growth will slow down without increased hardware sales. Apple Watches and AirPods sales can only grab so many new subscribers. Apple TV sales have not been a major revenue driver. The jury is still out and WS won’t see a true picture unless Apple discloses how many subscribers they will have like they did for Apple Music.
Like I have said. Their content so far is not impressive and they are late to this game. Between Disney, Netflix, and Amazon Prime, they will have a hard time competing on this front.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2019 6:33:09 GMT -8
Mac360 has Apple’s Marketing Hammer Is Coming. AFBers are on both sides of the equation - we are happy to give them our money for great products, but even happier to see it returned on the price of AAPL.
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Post by sponge on Sept 13, 2019 6:51:41 GMT -8
The real question that has yet to be answered is how will Apple approach their movie production and distribution.
Right now it is all about pulling their existing customers into the eco system by offering services which keeps them in. Amazon Prime comes to mind.
Will a hit show make someone suddenly pay $800 for an iPhone who did not own one before or just to get the Apple+ for free? Or will they take that hit show and monetize it by distributing it outside of their system? Apple likes to be exclusive but Apple Music growth has stalled and they now offer it Android devices.
The Abrahams story about turning Apple down and staying with Disney and Warner, says a great deal about how Big Hollywood producers look at this new option for them.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 13, 2019 6:51:55 GMT -8
wow what a turn in 24 hours... aapl down almost 2% relative to flat market (thankfully, i lightened up considerably on wed... and again yesterday after sponge's remarks - thanks sponge! - about getting bullish for next week)... felt weak yesterday form mid-day, gentle slide down... as if looking for any excuse to take profits...
well... goldman sachs delivered that excuse!!!
but... we've all seen this movie before, right?
"Pacific Crest’s Apple analyst, Andy Hargreaves, recommended selling some Apple shares this morning (down $4 to $99). He believes that if there aren’t any massive incremental profit opportunities announced next week that he is likely to downgrade Apple from Outperform to Sector Perform (I doubt he would go to Underperform). This does put him in direct opposition to Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray’s Apple analyst, who raised his price target yesterday and Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Apple analyst, who recommending adding to positions in late August."
so this ONE guy... some anal-yst i'd never heard of... he moved the stock down almost 4% in ONE day ($103 to $99) just by saying some bearish things!
this episode really stuck in my memory... i had bought just a bit of aapl back at $85 equivalent in may 2014 right before the stock split... (when i found this place and registered)... watched it climb nicely to $103 by end of august... then BOOM andy something hargreaves... who the f*ck is this guy, i thought? ...so my bs meter really went into overdrive, and i increased my position tenfold below $100! which was lucky before apple watch announcement and subsequent climb to $120 by nov 2014 and $130 by feb 2015
but back to andy h from pac crest... he was the 'resident bear' for aapl... the 'perfect foil' to the bulls like katy h and gene munster... nobody has heard from him in a while, right?
so my conjecture is that rod hall from goldman is the new 'bear'/'foil' to the bulls... get ready to see him make the most mind-explodingly bearish calls at the most opportune times... like after a special event, especially when the rest of the coverage is quite bullish...
***
what to do with this? if you have some cash, this *might* present a buying opportunity in a relatively flat market... i'm not sure i'm ready to deploy the cash i freed up yet... since it's just a 2% drop (and we know a few tweets from he-who-shall-not-be-called-names can tank aapl 4-5% in a day)... but i'm getting ready
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Post by sponge on Sept 13, 2019 7:22:52 GMT -8
The stock appears stronger then PM indicated. I think if we can get above 220 there is a good chance we will see 225 next week again.
We did have a 3.5% move or 8 points from yesterday. The type of move that we should have seen on Tuesday.
Don’t dismiss GS. They are not wrong about 165. Just as we overshoot bullish targets the same thing will happen in the next 12 months.
Recession is coming and DT can’t do anything to prevent it. He is trying to figure out who to blame. The interim deal with China will buy him time, but still won’t prevent it.
And by the way my 120 target this summer had many conditions to it regarding how the Chinese would punish Apple. That has yet to happen. Just delayed by one year that’s all.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2019 7:42:52 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 13, 2019 7:59:56 GMT -8
So Sponge, I am have an idea that might fine tune your analysis. The factors you site in your projections seem to be what I would call primary factors. Whether it is tweets or interest rates or Apple RSI, they are factors that cause traders to act independently from other investors. When there is critical mass, the algos take over to ride the momentum. Since we can only see the combined sales, we cannot tell one type from the other. This is important because momentum is going to follow a logistic or "S-curve". If TA is projecting based on linear curves, it will always overshoot the rise or fall after we hit the inflection point. I think it is important to pay attention to the total amount of money available to invest, e.g. maybe the RSI of the overall Market, to get a sense of when the inflection point has been reached.
Maybe I am just polishing the turd since the estimates are based on guesses about the initial factors that will start the ball rolling, but if you are seeing your predictions consistently overshoot , this might be something to consider. Good luck with your trading.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2019 8:22:46 GMT -8
The Open Interest is relatively small, though daily volume is kinda high (220 call with only 10k OI, but 47k daily volume). I wouldn't find it shocking to have AAPL climb in the last 30 minutes of trading to close pretty close to $220.
At this point, one could hope!
"It's all just a game!"
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 13, 2019 8:59:36 GMT -8
And by the way my 120 target this summer had many conditions to it regarding how the Chinese would punish Apple. That has yet to happen. Just delayed by one year that’s all.
mentally bookmarked... 120 sometime in the summer 2020
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 13, 2019 10:01:20 GMT -8
i nibbled near 217 (bought half of what i sold yesterday above $225... these are calls, so some leverage) ready to get in more lower, have cash
thanks sponge for your market calls this week (no, i really mean it, not trying to be mean or facetious) - they helped me trade this tricky week... (it's been a tricky week!)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2019 10:18:48 GMT -8
LOL!
It's all just a game! Look at that move!
Nice job WW! Your post got me thinking, FOMO and all. And sure enough, for the very short term I did miss out.
If a little boost is needed to see a $220 close, does anyone think a piece about strong initial sales might come out in the last 20-30 minutes? Sometimes it's hard to not be cynical, knowing that it sure looks at times that the puppeteer is amazing at his job.
(EDIT: From TDA it looks like the spike up was about 2.5M shares in 6 minutes. Looks like I have to look through ThinkorSwim if I want to see Level II quotes, just for kicks. Long ago you could do that with just the standard website, seeing what limit orders were at what levels, just sitting there waiting)
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Post by aaplcrazie on Sept 13, 2019 10:31:18 GMT -8
Apple Disputing The Great Vampire's Squids Rod Hall Note: Apple in a statement to CNBC disputed Goldman Sachs' negative call and said that it does not expect the introduction of Apple TV+ to have an impact on its financial results. "We do not expect the introduction of Apple TV+, including the accounting treatment for the service, to have a material impact on our financial results," the company said in a statement to CNBC. disputes Goldmans note
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 13, 2019 10:47:19 GMT -8
LOL! It's all just a game! Look at that move! Nice job WW! Your post got me thinking, FOMO and all. And sure enough, for the very short term I did miss out. If a little boost is needed to see a $220 close, does anyone think a piece about strong initial sales might come out in the last 20-30 minutes? Sometimes it's hard to not be cynical, knowing that it sure looks at times that the puppeteer is amazing at his job. (EDIT: From TDA it looks like the spike up was about 2.5M shares in 6 minutes. Looks like I have to look through ThinkorSwim if I want to see Level II quotes, just for kicks. Long ago you could do that with just the standard website, seeing what limit orders were at what levels, just sitting there waiting)
it was luck mostly (unlike sponge i don't claim to know where aapl will move in the next minute, hour, day or even week with any degree of certainty)
...the drop from 225 to 117 is really nothing... smaller movement than i usually bother to trade, but since *just* freed up extra cash yesterday, i decided to re-deploy
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Post by silkstone on Sept 13, 2019 10:50:11 GMT -8
The real question that has yet to be answered is how will Apple approach their movie production and distribution. Right now it is all about pulling their existing customers into the eco system by offering services which keeps them in. Amazon Prime comes to mind. Will a hit show make someone suddenly pay $800 for an iPhone who did not own one before or just to get the Apple+ for free? Or will they take that hit show and monetize it by distributing it outside of their system? Apple likes to be exclusive but Apple Music growth has stalled and they now offer it Android devices. The Abrahams story about turning Apple down and staying with Disney and Warner, says a great deal about how Big Hollywood producers look at this new option for them. They will approach movie production with $200 b in cash an a willingness to hire only top notch professionals and even if they did nothing else those two conditions alone would ensure great success for Apple TV +. The installed base has grown every year and will continue continue to drive services growth for the foreseeable future. You keep coming up with all these genius reasons to bet against the stock so stop all your ridiculous speculating, get out there and buy some puts.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Sept 13, 2019 10:58:27 GMT -8
It looks like this weeks gap was filled today. Still have one from last week at about 209.
Just a thought.
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Post by sponge on Sept 13, 2019 11:20:33 GMT -8
It looks like this weeks gap was filled today. Still have one from last week at about 209. Just a thought. My thoughts as well. Don't 209 however without a major market-wide correction. The statement from Apple regarding services and not having a financial impact is comical. In July he bragged about how services will grow following the introduction of Apple +. Not sure why they even responded to GS note. But it does remind me of how TC assured us everything was fine last Oct and then we saw the results in January and the letter he sent out.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2019 14:22:10 GMT -8
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Sept 13, 2019 14:25:27 GMT -8
Smh.
No comment Sponge...
Cheers to your “trade” strategies...
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Sept 13, 2019 14:27:15 GMT -8
Iger is the Eric Schmidt of yon past, good riddance.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2019 16:03:09 GMT -8
...the drop from 225 to 117 is really nothing... A drop to 117 would really be something. That's Sponge's territory! And just when I thought I might be understanding things, AAPL closes no where near $220. As Fisher said, The Great Humiliator. Ohhh well, it's fun to guess sometimes just the same. A quick spot check on the online store shows many versions of the 11 to still be shippable on the 20th (looked at black and red), though it looks like most of the mint colored ones are out into October. On the 11 Pro's, on standard and Max, the ~20 configs I checked were into October, except nearly all sizes of the Gold. I was mainly checking the unlocked. Pro's should be good for the profit margin mix. Have a great weekend everyone!
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 13, 2019 17:16:03 GMT -8
Shoulda bought Disney. Now they’re a competitor. The Schmidt comparison is off. We’re Google in this scenario. And yeah, 🖕🏼 GS. They’ll probably be recommending AAPL to clients at a discount.
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Post by zzmac on Sept 13, 2019 23:09:45 GMT -8
Shoulda bought Disney. Now they’re a competitor. The Schmidt comparison is off. We’re Google in this scenario. And yeah, 🖕🏼 GS. They’ll probably be recommending AAPL to clients at a discount. You’ve been touting Disney for a long time JD and although I didn’t agree at first I have for awhile. I think it would have been a very strategic purchase. Now how about some NFL streaming.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2019 12:48:10 GMT -8
Shoulda bought Disney. Now they’re a competitor. The Schmidt comparison is off. We’re Google in this scenario. And yeah, 🖕🏼 GS. They’ll probably be recommending AAPL to clients at a discount. You’ve been touting Disney for a long time JD and although I didn’t agree at first I have for awhile. I think it would have been a very strategic purchase. Now how about some NFL streaming. As a SoCal viewer, I'd like an easy way to actually choose what NFL games I see, instead of the shitty nepotistic Raiders, the Chargers who aren't really our local team, or the Rams whom I've always hated. But the NFL(.com) is charging ridiculous prices to stream a few hours of content a week (like $40 a month!). As a stockholder, I hate the sports licensing model because compensation isn't done in a prudent, relatively professional model like movies and TV (it's driven by the childish, ludicrous, entitled players unions and the inept, narcissistic owners - who didn't make their money in the industry they run - who enable them). Which is why ESPN is an albatross for Disney and why half of Dodger fans can't see their team play on TV (DirecTV has drawn the line and won't pay the stratospheric cost for the Dodgers' channel). Sports programming is just too expensive and there is no end in sight, and I really think there is a limit to what people will pay to see it. It's great to see the Soviet-like cable monopoly die (I'm a cord cutter), but the nascent, fractured streaming model is the other extreme. Instead of a bunch of crap we don't want in a Commissar-approved bundle full of Spanish language and other useless nonsense, now the things we want to actually see are all a la carte, which is as much or even more expensive. At some point, the market will likely sort it out and compromises will be made by the content creators for some sort of multi-media conglomerate streaming bundles, but I don't want Apple to be the Enron/Netflix like reseller of it. "The margins suck," as Steve would say. I really don't see how Netflix makes it at its current valuations, but someone has to step up.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 14, 2019 17:44:49 GMT -8
Jun Zhang reissued his $150 price target on Friday, which piggy-backed on Rod Hall’s note. Both explain AAPL’s fall on Friday: these two are the worst.
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