chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 5:07:20 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 5:40:38 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2019 6:40:29 GMT -8
Update from the online store
As of this morning, now almost 24 hours in, all of the 11 Pro iPhones I looked at are backordered (now delivery dates of Sept 30 into mid Oct), except for the Gold color. You can still get gold on the first shipping day.
On the 11, looking at all unlocked configs, the green, yellow, and purple models all have their initial online supplies sold out. The black, white, and red versions are all still available. I'm more of a classic guy I guess, though I considered the yellow just for the shock like on a supercar. Good to see, assuming the production numbers are somewhat similar, that Apple has plenty of buyers on the colors that I wouldn't really want. Yet again, that thing about knowing your target audience.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 6:51:05 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 7:31:51 GMT -8
Just noticed last Q net income dropped 12% after a 1% increase in revenue YOY.
It is clear that the drop in iPhone sales which also happen to drop 12% is the big factor.
The good news is that other income made up the difference.
So as we move forward by how much will iPhone sales drop in the coming FY? Will other income from wearables and services make the difference gain?
WS based on price targets seems to think that yes they will and actually show net income growth.
I beg to differ.
Based on guidance even Apple guidance showed a possible drop in sales for Q4. I doubt it will happen because this is the quarter they can stuff the channel and make things look solid.
It is still early but I have seen only mild excitement around me regarding the new iPhones with those I interact with. So far a few who own the 7 want to upgrade to the 11. There is more chatter about the Apple Watch only because there are still many who don’t own them and a few of those who do, want to upgrade often.
So if Apple gives us weak guidance once againi in Oct, WS will lower its price targets in a flash. Their friends are cashing out as we speak. History will repeat itself once again. Except we may be starting at 190 instead of 222 like last year.
I don’t see a deal with China. Some interim may happen, but DT knows fighting China from a position of strength is a win win with the economy and his party.
Lots of bearish bets for Nov, Dec, and even more for June of next year.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 7:37:37 GMT -8
Lots of bearish bets for Nov, Dec, and even more for June of next year. I say...Go for it, Spongie! Let us know how that works out for you.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 7:49:37 GMT -8
In case you missed it yesterday, board denizen PED had a video interview of Walt Mossberg reviewing this week's Big Event.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 8:36:39 GMT -8
Lots of bearish bets for Nov, Dec, and even more for June of next year. I say...Go for it, Spongie! Let us know how that works out for you. So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 14, 2019 8:49:37 GMT -8
I say...Go for it, Spongie! Let us know how that works out for you. So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. That is a drastic prediction! If this was a politics forum, I would label you a Russian troll.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 9:02:43 GMT -8
So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. That is a drastic prediction! If this was a politics forum, I would label you a Russian troll. I base my numbers on expected eps and historical p/e and dividend yield. That 105 number would put us in record yield territory of 3.2%. So those with stock should be feeling good since they are getting only 1.4% today.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 14, 2019 9:20:41 GMT -8
That is a drastic prediction! If this was a politics forum, I would label you a Russian troll. I base my numbers on expected eps and historical p/e and dividend yield. That 105 number would put us in record yield territory of 3.2%. So those with stock should be feeling good since they are getting only 1.4% today. They’re buying back a couple billion in stock so I’m pretty sure earnings will go up not down.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 9:54:38 GMT -8
Back to Disney for a second.
Everyone is comparing the different streaming services and weather they truly compete with each other. One must look beyond monthly fees and size of content catalog.
It is all about distribution and production. Apple is competing for talent and its cash balance puts it at a big advantage. However money is not always the solution to this new paradigm.
Netflix, Disney, and Amazon are 3-45 years ahead of Apple. Even if they were to catch up in content, unless they start making deals in distribution it will take years to actually turn a profit. I am not convinced that Apple will get 100 million subscribers for this service. Music is universal and they got 60 million in about 7 years.
It will depend on how quickly they add shows and how well received they are. But regardless one won’t be buying a $1000 simply because they love the new shows. Yes Apple can monetize their eco system, but there is a limit on growth and profit from it.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 10:01:24 GMT -8
I have lost track of big budget shows and movies that were complete flops regardless of who directed them or started in them.
TC is in love with Hollywood since they drive politics and is trying hard to get into the business. The case on how it will benefit Apple has not been made but WS thinks it’s great for now.
I agree with those who think he should have bought Disney or Netflix.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 10:02:41 GMT -8
I base my numbers on expected eps and historical p/e and dividend yield. That 105 number would put us in record yield territory of 3.2%. So those with stock should be feeling good since they are getting only 1.4% today. I don’t know about you, but I judge my investments by the number of dollars I receive in both price growth and yield. Have yet to find a store that accepts percentage points as payment. I was perfectly happy investing in AAPL on growth basis only, and for me dividends are the 🍒 on top. Of course, YMMV.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 14, 2019 10:24:15 GMT -8
So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. That is a drastic prediction! If this was a politics forum, I would label you a Russian troll.
be kind...!
i have to say i missed sponge... i'm glad he's back 😌 (is that weird? yeah, i know... it's weird)
over the past year sponge has become an important part of my trading strategy, as a fairly reliable contrarian indicator...
why dump on the guy when *he* pays all the costs (losing $$ on small directional options trades, instead of making $$ on medium-term and long-term AAPL appreciation)... while *we* get most of the benefit (understanding bearish perspective, having a contrarian indicator... and having 'fun' debates
we already have lots of acrimony in politics (i saw you and the s**t you deal with in the dungeon)... why extend it to aapl movement topics?
let's have love, peace and kumbaya here! 🤟 ☮️ 🕊️ 💐 ❤️
cheers to the longs!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 14, 2019 10:37:20 GMT -8
So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock.
holy batman spongie!! you're outdoing yourself...
sooooooo... i just wanna remind you that aapl reached $100 in sept 2012... 7 years ago! (before the watch, airpods, services... before china mobile even i think... i wasn't invested in aapl back then)...
and that's just share price -- not accounting the buybacks impact...
...using today's share # level... at $105 that would be $470B market cap...
...considering buybacks in the next year (estimate $50B), $105 would likely be equivalent to $420B market cap
so you're saying apple market cap will be same or smaller in 2020 than it was in 2012?
we'll see... right now have a pretty near-term target of $170 from you for november... that's all i need to know for now...
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 10:54:58 GMT -8
Yup
May be off by 10 to 20 points.
The world economy will dictate how companies are valued.
Aapl declined 45% during the last recession while earnings was growing.
We have had 10 years of boon from the smartphone revolution. We hit a peak 4 years ago.
TC missed the boat to take us to the next level.
Still very bullish on Apple long term but not until he is forced out.
Wow. Just noticed there are 12k puts for SPY 210 Jan21
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 14, 2019 12:50:42 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there?
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 13:00:20 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? If I have time this weekend I will respond There are about 10 things he should have done
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Post by silkstone on Sept 14, 2019 13:49:35 GMT -8
Back to Disney for a second. Everyone is comparing the different streaming services and weather they truly compete with each other. One must look beyond monthly fees and size of content catalog. It is all about distribution and production. Apple is competing for talent and its cash balance puts it at a big advantage. However money is not always the solution to this new paradigm. Netflix, Disney, and Amazon are 3-45 years ahead of Apple. Even if they were to catch up in content, unless they start making deals in distribution it will take years to actually turn a profit. I am not convinced that Apple will get 100 million subscribers for this service. Music is universal and they got 60 million in about 7 years. It will depend on how quickly they add shows and how well received they are. But regardless one won’t be buying a $1000 simply because they love the new shows. Yes Apple can monetize their eco system, but there is a limit on growth and profit from it. True but you don’t know what that limit is. You’re not convinced about a lot f things. Apple can buy the talent it needs and anyone who thinks tv+ is only going to start streaming with nine or ten shows is quite naive. Your opinions and wild guesses are unique only because they are based on limited information and conjecture. You need to start writing fiction books, you have a wild imagination, it might work out for you.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 14, 2019 13:52:59 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? If I have time this weekend I will respond There are about 10 things he should have done Wow, yea and if he coulda done your ten things Apple would be even greater. And instead of posting inane remarks on internet blog sites, tim might be worth a few hundred million.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 16:42:54 GMT -8
I base my numbers on expected eps and historical p/e and dividend yield. That 105 number would put us in record yield territory of 3.2%. So those with stock should be feeling good since they are getting only 1.4% today. I don’t know about you, but I judge my investments by the number of dollars I receive in both price growth and yield. Have yet to find a store that accepts percentage points as payment. I was perfectly happy investing in AAPL on growth basis only, and for me dividends are the 🍒 on top. Of course, YMMV. True But everyone is very happy now with that view as we are close to ATH. That attitude will change drastically when your portfolio is 55% lower. And one will wonder how long it will stay there. I have been around to see how many here felt and acted in 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2015.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 16:59:58 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? Here you go. Should have bought Tesla 5 years ago instead doing their own software and present car development. We are now behind by 10 years. Should have improved maps drastically, with their money Google still runs circles around maps and I am forced to use Google maps all over the world and Waze here in the US. Should have improved Siri to its true form. Should have improved iWorks to really compete with Office Should have not allowed a loss in market share of the iPad after 2011. Should have kept prices of the iPhone at $799 not $1449 for top model. If services was the plan grabbing market share was critical. Should have bought Disney. Should have established own satellite internet network and not rely on cell companies Should have moved manufacturing out of China 10 years ago. Should have kept up with all battery and screen capabilities of Android. AI and Machine Learning are a total joke. Should have developed its own search engine. Should have developed its own social network. Should have introduced its own VR and gaming 10 years ago. I have a few more. Just put these together in 10 min.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 14, 2019 18:13:24 GMT -8
Microsoft will always have some big advantage over Apple. It achieved a deep relationship with the government with its operating system years ago, and a deep relationship with tons of users with MSOffice. A deep ongoing source of income.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 14, 2019 18:17:33 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? Here you go. Should have bought Tesla 5 years ago instead doing their own software and present car development. We are now behind by 10 years. Should have improved maps drastically, with their money Google still runs circles around maps and I am forced to use Google maps all over the world and Waze here in the US. Should have improved Siri to its true form. Should have improved iWorks to really compete with Office Should have not allowed a loss in market share of the iPad after 2011. Should have kept prices of the iPhone at $799 not $1449 for top model. If services was the plan grabbing market share was critical. Should have bought Disney. Should have established own satellite internet network and not rely on cell companies Should have moved manufacturing out of China 10 years ago. Should have kept up with all battery and screen capabilities of Android. AI and Machine Learning are a total joke. Should have developed its own search engine. Should have developed its own social network. Should have introduced its own VR and gaming 10 years ago. I have a few more. Just put these together in 10 min. Sponge is right on ! ! Not sure of all of them, but Siri was a real loss, out of China true, weak AI is true and overhyped, and perhaps its own social network. Really, a very insightful post ! !
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 18:55:53 GMT -8
But everyone is very happy now with that view as we are close to ATH. That attitude will change drastically when your portfolio is 55% lower. And one will wonder how long it will stay there. I have been around to see how many here felt and acted in 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2015. AAPL dipped below 150 last December, losing roughly a third off its price; I sold not a share and banked three dividend payments in the interim. Works for me, or should I say has worked for me since 2007, with a couple of additions along the way. I always loved the company’s products, and it was hard to miss how revolutionary the iPhone was. In addition, Steve had finally found the operations guru capable of bringing those concepts to fruition on a mass scale. I find it amazing that someone who seems to feel that Steve was infallible does not share his opinion of Mr. Cook, despite the considerable achievements of the company under his direction.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2019 19:10:08 GMT -8
Should have bought Disney. Is not buying Disney really the problem? Or was the problem not buying Pixar, which dates a bit back further. Or course someone might find issue with buying out both neXt and Pixar. But this is all theoretical, so what does it matter.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2019 19:15:37 GMT -8
Sponge is right on ! ! Not sure of all of them, but Siri was a real loss, out of China true, weak AI is true and overhyped, and perhaps its own social network. Really, a very insightful post ! ! So show the courage of your convictions and sell your stock. Perhaps you have forgotten the ups and downs of Apple before the iPhone arrived. I loved Steve as I am sure everyone in this forum did, and I am baffled by the belief that his hiring of and handing succession to Tim was blunder, especially in view of the success of company products and increase in company valuation that has continued under his direction. After all, Steve never made a mistake, right? Please come back to say good-bye after you have divested.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2019 19:33:44 GMT -8
I am in cash which is going up with option trading.
Won’t be buying back until he is gone
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Post by plcm123 on Sept 14, 2019 23:01:14 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? Here you go. Should have bought Tesla 5 years ago instead doing their own software and present car development. We are now behind by 10 years. Should have improved maps drastically, with their money Google still runs circles around maps and I am forced to use Google maps all over the world and Waze here in the US. Should have improved Siri to its true form. Should have improved iWorks to really compete with Office Should have not allowed a loss in market share of the iPad after 2011. Should have kept prices of the iPhone at $799 not $1449 for top model. If services was the plan grabbing market share was critical. Should have bought Disney. Should have established own satellite internet network and not rely on cell companies Should have moved manufacturing out of China 10 years ago. Should have kept up with all battery and screen capabilities of Android. AI and Machine Learning are a total joke. Should have developed its own search engine. Should have developed its own social network. Should have introduced its own VR and gaming 10 years ago. I have a few more. Just put these together in 10 min. Shoulda coulda ... Michael Dell is that you?
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