chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Sept 15, 2019 4:51:51 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Sept 15, 2019 7:49:33 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Sept 15, 2019 8:00:29 GMT -8
That shoulda bought list above is rather extensive and the fact that they didn't is one of my favorite things about Apple. While google was off buying snapchat and Waze and Nest what was Apple buying instead? Here's a list. It's pretty easy to see how they've integrated the capabilities of those products into where they believe the puck is going. There may be more than a few singles in the list but there's also a few grand slams. Meanwhile, the culture and focus of Apple remains. Would that have been true in acquiring a Disney? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Apple
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 15, 2019 8:21:00 GMT -8
I say...Go for it, Spongie! Let us know how that works out for you. So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. If this prediction was designed to animate the board and give us something to talk about, congratulations. For those of us who are trying so hard to believe that you are not sniffing glue, tell me something. if the drop is caused by general economic collapse i.e. a major recession, where to you think people will put the money they get from dumping Apple? Oil? not hardly we have a glut, even with SA on fire. Other tech? why wouldn't they be down too? Bonds? at these rates? Apple is the high ground. With 5G coming, I see amazing demand. 200 million people replace their phone every year. How long did people stay with 3G after 4G LTE was available? Do you think it is unreasonable to expect 400 million when 5G comes online? Now about your criticism of Tim... I for one think that he has done an excellent job. I was never that impressed with Jobs. If you want to understand his vision, read about Alan Kay. I haven't seen anything original that Jobs added to Kay's work. I listened to Jobs in the last earnings call he attended before he died. He came across as a petulant spoiled child. I think Cook brought much needed stability and the numbers seem to agree. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate what Job'e accomplished. If he hadn't brought Xerox PARC's work to the market, we would still be editing with vi and looking at text. In 1980, Xerox decided that the revolutionary work done in their labs could not be commercialized ( I assume) and they gave it away. They gave it to IBM, HP, Tektronix, and Apple. Tektronix started an entire research lab based on it. Many of the people there had close ties to Xerox. It was my good fortune to spend a year working with them in 1985. The current state of computing is still 2-3 years behind what Xerox created. I do give Jobs credit for bring that work to market, But Cook's stewardship is really what has made Apple what it is today. For all the people aching for Job's showmanship and "one more thing" I would point to the power of evolution. We saw, in the last product announcement, how Apple was moving forward in every category. Bringing forward a revolutionary new product is not the best way to grow. It will be immediately copied and made into a commodity. With intellectual property unprotected as it is now( I am not talking about China, I am talking about Google and Microsoft) the only defense is to improve your product faster that the competition. Think about the Apple watch. Pretend you are working for Samsung and you are trying to match the 3rd edition. Just when you are ready to announce your "We can do anything Apple watch can do" version, here comes the heart monitoring and fall protection. It is enough to make you break your slide rule. I saw advances in every field, slow steady, hard to duplicate progress. That is what Tim has brought us. I don't try to predict the stock value, but I would be very surprised if it doesn't double over the next two years. And Tim, if you are reading this, how about a 4-1 split so others can share the wealth?
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Post by sponge on Sept 15, 2019 8:48:51 GMT -8
In stock news, looks like we are going down further tomorrow. The refinery attack will drag the market down.
Look, I have been the biggest bull here for years. I love Apple and their products. The have a great ecosystem that is growing and will grow over many years. I have even opposed many of the suggestions I made when they were made by others years ago.
But we go thru cycles and we are about the enter a dark one. The warning shots were in Feb last year and then in Dec. China and world economies which Apple relies on for 60% of sales are slowing down quickly. When that happens the stock will drop. It has done that multiple times. It will be no different this time.
Yes trying predict a recession is not easy and one can be off by a few years. But Apple has blossomed because of the iPHone. When they stopped giving us numbers that was a sign that growth has stopped. Trying to make it up with wearables and services along with other products seems logical and for the time being almost successful. However, had TC completed many of those tasks, we could have weathered the storm that is coming much better.
They will not be making money on the TV services for quite some time if ever. Apple Pay is awesome and I use it 80% of the time, but I am part of a small group of people that can afford $1400 worth of technology that allows me to take advantage of it. There are only so many people that can afford to buy $600 iPhone and $200 Apple Watch which both need to be replaced in 5 years for sure.
Apple is trying hard to lower prices because they also see how limited growth is from their hit products. But consumers are not stupid. Buying 2 year old technology for a discount will only work for a short time. They should have diversified many years ago instead of relaying on one product and one country to manufacture all their products.
Back to Disney. I know enough people in the industry in Disney and other areas, and they all say Disney will wipe the floor on streaming. Apple should have bought them instead of competing with them on content and movie distribution. Disney is an amazing company and the catalog and future production of Star Wars and Marvel, is unmatched in the industry. TC is delusion if he thinks throwing a few billion at some producers and actors will change that.
He is offering Apple+ for free hoping to follow the Amazon model. But he is late to the game. I recall showing friends my Apple TV in 2007 and predicting that Apple will rule the movie world like they did with iTunes and iPod. They had 12 years and dropped the ball. Got distracted by the growth of the iPhone and focused mostly on that and neglecting everything else.
The fact that most stores are filled with people asking for help instead of buying products should tell you that they dropped the ball on the ease of use and quality of their other products.
Rant ended.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 15, 2019 10:49:39 GMT -8
In stock news, looks like we are going down further tomorrow. The refinery attack will drag the market down. Look, I have been the biggest bull here for years. I love Apple and their products. The have a great ecosystem that is growing and will grow over many years. I have even opposed many of the suggestions I made when they were made by others years ago. But we go thru cycles and we are about the enter a dark one. The warning shots were in Feb last year and then in Dec. China and world economies which Apple relies on for 60% of sales are slowing down quickly. When that happens the stock will drop. It has done that multiple times. It will be no different this time. Yes trying predict a recession is not easy and one can be off by a few years. But Apple has blossomed because of the iPHone. When they stopped giving us numbers that was a sign that growth has stopped. Trying to make it up with wearables and services along with other products seems logical and for the time being almost successful. However, had TC completed many of those tasks, we could have weathered the storm that is coming much better. They will not be making money on the TV services for quite some time if ever. Apple Pay is awesome and I use it 80% of the time, but I am part of a small group of people that can afford $1400 worth of technology that allows me to take advantage of it. There are only so many people that can afford to buy $600 iPhone and $200 Apple Watch which both need to be replaced in 5 years for sure. Apple is trying hard to lower prices because they also see how limited growth is from their hit products. But consumers are not stupid. Buying 2 year old technology for a discount will only work for a short time. They should have diversified many years ago instead of relaying on one product and one country to manufacture all their products. Back to Disney. I know enough people in the industry in Disney and other areas, and they all say Disney will wipe the floor on streaming. Apple should have bought them instead of competing with them on content and movie distribution. Disney is an amazing company and the catalog and future production of Star Wars and Marvel, is unmatched in the industry. TC is delusion if he thinks throwing a few billion at some producers and actors will change that. He is offering Apple+ for free hoping to follow the Amazon model. But he is late to the game. I recall showing friends my Apple TV in 2007 and predicting that Apple will rule the movie world like they did with iTunes and iPod. They had 12 years and dropped the ball. Got distracted by the growth of the iPhone and focused mostly on that and neglecting everything else. The fact that most stores are filled with people asking for help instead of buying products should tell you that they dropped the ball on the ease of use and quality of their other products. Rant ended. Yea, it’s a rant all right. You don’t have a clue what the future is. You said Apple would be $120 in July. You cashed out your shares and because you did it must be going down. Broken clock is right two times a day but spongy is all cash trying to conger up an epic Apple fall so he can say, “I told you so suckers, look how smart I am“ I’ve been warning you for the last two years! blah blah blah. Get a life man.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 15, 2019 11:44:02 GMT -8
Stock market drops will happen, some small, and some big. The bigger ones are likely to be tied to recessions, which will also happen, but world events are sometimes enough. Like the lead up to the housing bubble, it's hard to call exactly when it will be. Many people were much too early to calling that, including me not wanting to buy in the SF Bay Area in say 2002 because things seemed way too overpriced. And yet things grew for quite a few more years, until even some naysayers threw in the towel and went for it. Much like the Tulip bubble recounts, or 1929, this is what really shows the frothiness.
OTOH, there have been enough negative pieces and negative movement over the past year+, along with 2 frothy crashes relatively fresh in people's minds, that the market doesn't appear to be near a frothy bubbly top. That doesn't mean that this couldn't possible be a top, but rather that if this were a top it wouldn't be anywhere near the crazy manic tops that happen at times, and so a crash down would be much more likely to be on the order of 10-20% than 50%.
The tide will turn at some point, and something like SA coupled with trade issues could set it off. But even if it were to happen, which seems unlikely in the next few months given how things have been over the last 12 months, it wouldn't likely be a huge drop from this level.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 15, 2019 12:50:54 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? Here you go. Should have bought Tesla 5 years ago instead doing their own software and present car development. We are now behind by 10 years. Should have improved maps drastically, with their money Google still runs circles around maps and I am forced to use Google maps all over the world and Waze here in the US. Should have improved Siri to its true form. Should have improved iWorks to really compete with Office Should have not allowed a loss in market share of the iPad after 2011. Should have kept prices of the iPhone at $799 not $1449 for top model. If services was the plan grabbing market share was critical. Should have bought Disney. Should have established own satellite internet network and not rely on cell companies Should have moved manufacturing out of China 10 years ago. Should have kept up with all battery and screen capabilities of Android. AI and Machine Learning are a total joke. Should have developed its own search engine. Should have developed its own social network. Should have introduced its own VR and gaming 10 years ago. I have a few more. Just put these together in 10 min. This is actually a very good list. Thank you.
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Post by hyci004 on Sept 15, 2019 16:50:19 GMT -8
Just in case he's lurking on this forum, Sponge, what's the "next level " and how could TC have gotten Apple there? Here you go Should have developed its own search engine. Should have developed its own social network. EU/FTC antitrust investigate incoming for search, social network and App Store.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 15, 2019 18:36:02 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 15, 2019 22:03:20 GMT -8
Won’t get any numbers tomorrow. I think the embargo on reviews lifts tomorrow (iPhone and Watch). And why would anyone give Sponge credit for 20-20 hindsight? If only such hindsight worked with price targets. smh
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 15, 2019 22:24:41 GMT -8
Just ordered an 11 for me, 64 gig in Red. Nearly all of the sizes for the red, white, and black models are still shippable for Friday (I think one had a 10-14 day wait). Same with the 11 Pro in Gold. But everything else has a wait.
Also just signed up for the AppleCard, which was fairly easy but really not much different than any other card. The photo of the ID wasn't working, but at least it could be used instantly, unlike last year with signing up for the Costco card right when ordering a MacBook Air.
FWIW you need an iPhone 6 or later to sign up for the AppleCard. Not a big deal, especially since you can get those models for cheap now, but since I'm replacing a 5s I had to wait around for my wife to get back with her 8+ so I could sign up....so I could then order a newer iPhone. Not a problem for most people, but it delayed my purchase a little.
(OT, but I also ordered an EGO 18" chainsaw today. This new model has a little more power than the old ones, and likely triple my neighbor's Ryobi which still does a decent job limbing (though I've fried a few batteries doing what I'd consider light work, this time dropping a 30' fir, limbing it, and bucking it up. At only 8" diameter this should have been easy, but the battery went and lost it's magic smoke. Still under warranty, so Ryobi sent out a new 40v battery). None of these battery powered saws will completely replace gas ones in all areas, especially with 24"+ logs, but there are more and more areas that they do. And there are some big advantages, of no mixing up fuel, no carbs to keep clean and tuned, no air filter, and a lot less noise.)
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 4:12:40 GMT -8
Stock market drops will happen, some small, and some big. The bigger ones are likely to be tied to recessions, which will also happen, but world events are sometimes enough. Like the lead up to the housing bubble, it's hard to call exactly when it will be. Many people were much too early to calling that, including me not wanting to buy in the SF Bay Area in say 2002 because things seemed way too overpriced. And yet things grew for quite a few more years, until even some naysayers threw in the towel and went for it. Much like the Tulip bubble recounts, or 1929, this is what really shows the frothiness. OTOH, there have been enough negative pieces and negative movement over the past year+, along with 2 frothy crashes relatively fresh in people's minds, that the market doesn't appear to be near a frothy bubbly top. That doesn't mean that this couldn't possible be a top, but rather that if this were a top it wouldn't be anywhere near the crazy manic tops that happen at times, and so a crash down would be much more likely to be on the order of 10-20% than 50%. The tide will turn at some point, and something like SA coupled with trade issues could set it off. But even if it were to happen, which seems unlikely in the next few months given how things have been over the last 12 months, it wouldn't likely be a huge drop from this level. Correct and logical, there is no frothy top, irrational exuberance, etc. So sponge may just be incorrect, huh..whod a thunk it. Peak phone sales are in the past but Apple is trying to overcome and compensate for this situation by selling more services, wearables, computers. If you believe they will fail to do so then you should sell your shares. If you believe in the future success of Apple’s leadership, new products, services, customer satisfaction, and the 86% of people 12-25 yrs of age who say their next phone will be an iPhone then you stay invested. Based on their track record, I wouldn’t bet against this company.
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Post by lulli on Sept 16, 2019 6:06:53 GMT -8
AI and Machine Learning are a total joke You better have a look at the literature and what people are doing with computers nowadays.... I don't have time to quibble about this kind of things, but this one point on the list hints to the possibility that several other points are born out of misinformation or wishful thinking. Better to develop just two or three points but think about them more deeply, looking for data that supports them.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 19:32:03 GMT -8
I say...Go for it, Spongie! Let us know how that works out for you. So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. Quick update. Jan 140 Another huge blunder. The one part of Siri that works is awesome (controlling the iPhone) . But after 7 years Siri still requires the net. It makes it too slow.
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