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Post by appledoc on Jan 1, 2013 5:20:15 GMT -8
The run is not over. It's going to be a great year.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 1, 2013 5:57:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 7:23:22 GMT -8
If the market hangs in there I have a hard time NOT seeing AAPL having a great year.
I just gotta be more disciplined than ever.
Happy New Year, all!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 7:51:38 GMT -8
Dairy lovers rejoice. Milk cliff put off for nine months.
Which should help a little since a lot of Congress likes pizza.
Structural stuff, yeah whatever but hey, I like pizza too! Mooooo.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 1, 2013 7:52:18 GMT -8
My WAG. Congress strongly opposes bill and we are back to nothing
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 7:56:53 GMT -8
Ya never know. OTOH, 89-8. Senate sent a message.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 1, 2013 8:19:51 GMT -8
Ya never know. OTOH, 89-8. Senate sent a message. Yes they did. As it turns out, Jan 3 is a very important day for Congress. That is the official turnover day. interesting.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 1, 2013 8:33:34 GMT -8
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 1, 2013 8:39:52 GMT -8
The chart in Avi's article is dated Sunday, December 30, 2012.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 8:51:45 GMT -8
I see little cause for concern in Avi's piece.
It's actually kind of in line with how some technicals traders think. 530/539 ignition not terribly far apart. Honestly, the 473 line in the sand, though EW-process/interpretation-driven, is being generous IMHO. Personally I think there's all kinds of warning signs if AAPL approaches the low 500s yet again. 499 is my own "line in the sand".
It'll be very tough to keep selling AAPL into earnings this go-round assuming a stable-ish overall mkt. It's been almost continuously sold since 705 after all. Hope to see AAPL be able to trade on its own damn merits as much as possible for a little while.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 1, 2013 8:52:50 GMT -8
I think we breeze past 539 easy this week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 8:55:04 GMT -8
Fiscal slope band aid + a little included cap gains/divvy certainty + new year = all I can ask for to measure composure. I know Xmas is over, but sure would be "nice" to get this overdue "present" to remove one distorting mkt distraction.
Now it's up to the House.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 1, 2013 9:08:27 GMT -8
Zero Hedge graphic:
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 1, 2013 9:13:06 GMT -8
All MHO:
"Usually," a move like yesterday has some follow-through. It wouldn't take much follow-through to clear 539.
When I look at the weekly chart, I think that IF we bottomed at 501, upward price action might pull the weekly SMA-100 up so that it appears we found support there. I.e., SMA-100 pulls toward price, rather than price dropping to SMA-100.
Also think it's important that SPY stays over the daily SMA-50 because I can't imagine AAPL getting too far off the ground if the broader market takes a deeper dive. The indices have been whipsawing mid-channel, so again, need to see some commitment and follow-through to the upside.
If we can just get an uptrend confirmed, market/AAPL participants will be back in "buy the dip" mode. Until then, "sell the rip" psychology (greedy bears and fearful bulls) lingers.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 1, 2013 9:26:18 GMT -8
Zero Hedge graphic: FWIW: IMHO: I have listened to the first 15 "1 minute speeches" from the House of Rep. today. The bill will not pass.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 9:26:30 GMT -8
I would add, ZeroHedge is constantly waiting for the world to end. Plus they hate Apple.
I don't have quite so dour a view of the world. Structural issues vs. ZH's house of cards mentality. Sounding the alarm vs. that any-day-now stuff ZH espouses.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 9:29:21 GMT -8
iPad, MACD-h going positive on the daily is no small thing.
This is why I'd prefer the FSBA (Shorthand(tm)!) be resolved today. It'll be the closest thing to measuring mkt attitude "in a vacuum" as we'll get.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 1, 2013 9:38:08 GMT -8
As it was already said, that was written over the weekend. I'm past the trial phase for Avi's group, so I'm not sure what his current thinking is for a bearish scenario. But the bear chart he had over the weekend has to be fixed because it isn't valid anymore since we went over 534.90 (end of iv on his chart). I think the possibility for a bear count using 705 as the end of wave V still exists. But I've always hated that count, and not just because I'm a bull. I've been looking at the chart trying to come up with a good bear count, but I haven't been successful.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 1, 2013 9:53:41 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 1, 2013 9:53:48 GMT -8
They make the most wanted products in the world ... you can read the article on Business Insider about the theft in Paris of $1.3million in AAPL products from their store on New Year's Eve - but would prefer you not give them the click. Meanwhile Bloomberg also made a comment about theft being up in NYC on AAPL products. It really is a phenomenon -- do you ever hear this about Android or Samesung? And yet you have idiots like Steve Grasso who get up and say they love their Samesung phone better than their iPhone just so that he can scalp a few on his short. Ah...the injustices of the liberal media on this and so much more.
Happy 2013 all!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 1, 2013 10:00:50 GMT -8
Doc, C is still in play unfortunately. That is the mother of all bear scenarios. We are at the mercy of the House vote, not very comforting.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 1, 2013 10:12:23 GMT -8
If the House rejects this deal, it plays right into the Dem's hands, I can just see the President holding his hands up and saying...."I tried....but those guys"
It will pass. Arm twisting underway now.....
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 1, 2013 10:16:27 GMT -8
iPad, MACD-h going positive on the daily is no small thing. This is why I'd prefer the FSBA (Shorthand(tm)!) be resolved today. It'll be the closest thing to measuring mkt attitude "in a vacuum" as we'll get. Mav, indeed MACD-h bullish cross = HUGE thing!!
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Post by alice on Jan 1, 2013 10:27:50 GMT -8
The House didn't even vote on Plan B. Why would they vote for this bill and not Plan B?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 10:37:23 GMT -8
Because 89-8? Sorry iPad, did you mean MACD-h bar or the black/red line thingy? Both are bullish...ish but they don't move in lockstep right? And which do you give more weight? It's bar for uptrend and lines for weakness? Is it possible for me to post nothing but questions? ;D
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Post by appledoc on Jan 1, 2013 10:37:51 GMT -8
Doc, C is still in play unfortunately. That is the mother of all bear scenarios. Yes, but we've discussed this before. I have great comfort in not believing that we could be taken that far down without a collapse of the global economy. Going to sub-400 is preposterous.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 10:39:15 GMT -8
Without us all joyfully buying puts on AMZN, NFLX, etc around AAPL 490s
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 1, 2013 10:59:52 GMT -8
Doc, C is still in play unfortunately. That is the mother of all bear scenarios. Yes, but we've discussed this before. I have great comfort in not believing that we could be taken that far down without a collapse of the global economy. Going to sub-400 is preposterous. Going to 505 was preposterous also.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 11:26:32 GMT -8
Let's not start 2013 on a down note.
Congress could still do that FOR us!
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 1, 2013 11:27:53 GMT -8
Irrelevant. How many of those GOP senators are up for reelection in 2014? Meanwhile, all GOP House members who vote for this abomination will be facing Tea Party primary challenges in 24 months. How quickly people forget the 2010 midterm tsunami.
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