chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 19, 2019 4:16:54 GMT -8
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Sept 19, 2019 5:55:08 GMT -8
Nice piece by Iger in VF.
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Post by sponge on Sept 19, 2019 6:06:48 GMT -8
The gap from last Thursday has been filled.
The only news left before earnings will be China Trade Deal.
I see Trump caving in after the FedEX results. He will do what ever it takes to get re elected.
The only question which may not be answered until next year, is when does he fire his China trade advisors and go out on his own instincts when it becomes clear that China is cheating again.
I am still confident this new batch of iPHones will sell poorly regardless of all the praise.
I find it so ironic that Apple gets away with reviews that shows the XS pictures look like crap and when compared to the 11 Pro. That year they did the same thing with the XS pictures when compared to the X. People are smarter then that thus they are not upgrading based on camera alone.
The iPhone won’t see increased sales YOY until we have a different form factor and the latest Pro model starts at $699. I don’t think Apple can afford to do that.
Dropping the XR by 150 is a great move, and they could get a temporary bump, but history has shown the largest number of sales is with the latest and greatest. So it will only stop the bleeding for a few months, but won’t reflect in iPhones sales with increased YOY growth.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 19, 2019 6:44:39 GMT -8
The gap from last Thursday has been filled. The only news left before earnings will be China Trade Deal. I see Trump caving in after the FedEX results. He will do what ever it takes to get re elected. The only question which may not be answered until next year, is when does he fire his China trade advisors and go out on his own instincts when it becomes clear that China is cheating again. I am still confident this new batch of iPHones will sell poorly regardless of all the praise. I find it so ironic that Apple gets away with reviews that shows the XS pictures look like crap and when compared to the 11 Pro. That year they did the same thing with the XS pictures when compared to the X. People are smarter then that thus they are not upgrading based on camera alone. The iPhone won’t see increased sales YOY until we have a different form factor and the latest Pro model starts at $699. I don’t think Apple can afford to do that. Dropping the XR by 150 is a great move, and they could get a temporary bump, but history has shown the largest number of sales is with the latest and greatest. So it will only stop the bleeding for a few months, but won’t reflect in iPhones sales with increased YOY growth. It doesn’t matter, any fall off in iPhone sales will be MORE than offset by growth in services, wearables and other categories. Only a few will know the exact iPhone sales numbers, the installed base will keep growing, the earnings and revenues will keep rising and Apple will continue to be one of the best investments the market has to offer. Investors focusing on the wrong things at the wrong time will always be behind the curve. Any China solution will lead to an immediate 10-20% bump. Then it might be time to sell some.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 19, 2019 6:48:03 GMT -8
1. The gap has even filled. 2. The only news left before earnings will be China Trade Deal. 3. He will do what ever it takes to get re elected. 4. I am still confident this new batch of iPHones will sell poorly regardless of all the praise. 1. Are you a mason? 😃 2. No October event? 🤭 3. Yes, but he’s more likely to resign in 2020 🙏🏼 4. Your confidence is misplaced. 🤥
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Post by sponge on Sept 19, 2019 7:11:25 GMT -8
Well those 195 Nov puts went up to 51K. Someone is very bearish about ER.
The SPY Jan 2021 puts at 210 and 200 are more interesting to watch.
Regarding aapl. There are TA folks that now see 238, I don’t but there is enough room in the RSI to take us there.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 19, 2019 7:11:39 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 19, 2019 7:27:30 GMT -8
The iPhone won’t see increased sales YOY until we have a different form factor This is at least the 3rd time you've said this. What change in form factor do you think would be good? Are competitors changing their form factor, aside from copying the notch and attempting to make folding phones? In reading about the latest Director leaving, I didn't realize Katie Cotton wasn't still the one on the calls. It's been 5 years, apparently. OTOH, I was there for Fred's retirement, even signing the card at the Apple Beer Bash as '4aapl'.
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Post by sponge on Sept 19, 2019 7:48:56 GMT -8
The iPhone won’t see increased sales YOY until we have a different form factor This is at least the 3rd time you've said this. What change in form factor do you think would be good? Are competitors changing their form factor, aside from copying the notch and attempting to make folding phones? In reading about the latest Director leaving, I didn't realize Katie Cotton wasn't still the one on the calls. It's been 5 years, apparently. OTOH, I was there for Fred's retirement, even signing the card at the Apple Beer Bash as '4aapl'. Everyone looks at the iPHone upgrade cycle based on features. Yes I think that was the case 4 years ago. But after that, people upgraded more on affordability, and need (ie battery or screen issues) The iPhone upgrades is now like cars. People get the new model if it looks different then the last model. The iPhone has not radically changed in looks since the 6. Sure we have bigger screens but the sides are the same. So I think people will wait for a change to a square look like the 4. Apple is working towards that if you look at the iPad Pro. I think we are still two generations away. Not sure they will change next year due to cost. That type of change is very costly in manufacturing since the whole line has to be changed over. And at that point they will be selling 4 different looks. Many that I interact with say the camera is ugly since the 6. It got even uglier with the square protrusion this year
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 19, 2019 7:49:32 GMT -8
Well those 195 Nov puts went up to 51K. Someone is very bearish about ER.
spongie, dude... seriously, drop it! you have NO idea how options work, apparently...
open interest on options does not indicate whether they were bought or sold to open... someone could have been getting more and more bullish on the ER, confident to sell those 195 nov puts betting there's no chance the price will go below that...
plus, this was most likely a hedge against other bets... e.g. buy puts for an existing long position (stock or calls)... or sell puts for an existing neutral or bear position...
this seems like deja vu... 4aapl already responded to you last time 🙄
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Post by BillH on Sept 19, 2019 7:56:51 GMT -8
The iPhone won’t see increased sales YOY until we have a different form factor This is at least the 3rd time you've said this. What change in form factor do you think would be good? Are competitors changing their form factor, aside from copying the notch and attempting to make folding phones? In reading about the latest Director leaving, I didn't realize Katie Cotton wasn't still the one on the calls. It's been 5 years, apparently. OTOH, I was there for Fred's retirement, even signing the card at the Apple Beer Bash as '4aapl'. Interesting. So was my daughter. .
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 19, 2019 8:55:04 GMT -8
OTOH, I was there for Fred's retirement, even signing the card at the Apple Beer Bash as '4aapl'. Interesting. So was my daughter. . Hey, that's me in the jeans Small world sometimes. I liked Fred, but like the current people that are moving on, I understand you need to do that sometimes. At some point you have to decide if it's worth it, and in the case of people at that level that have a lot more stress but are paid handsomely, unless you don't quite have enough for that yacht you have your eye on, if you have a change in life or priorities it could be time to call it in.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 19, 2019 9:45:30 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Sept 19, 2019 10:31:32 GMT -8
Is it wrong of me to think you'd be a lot happier if you'd quit thinking that one guys uniformed click bait hit piece is indicative of a declining social structure?
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Post by BillH on Sept 19, 2019 10:52:10 GMT -8
Interesting. So was my daughter. . Hey, that's me in the jeans Small world sometimes. I liked Fred, but like the current people that are moving on, I understand you need to do that sometimes. At some point you have to decide if it's worth it, and in the case of people at that level that have a lot more stress but are paid handsomely, unless you don't quite have enough for that yacht you have your eye on, if you have a change in life or priorities it could be time to call it in. There are magical times in our lives when it seems the world is spinning in greased grooves. Often it seems we aren't aware of when those times are until further down the road. That period had the added magic of actually being aware of it. Life is good but I do miss those days. Beginnings are always the most fun.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 19, 2019 11:31:21 GMT -8
Is it wrong of me to think you'd be a lot happier if you'd quit thinking that one guys uniformed click bait hit piece is indicative of a declining social structure? Indeed, I was born yesterday. Tabla rasa.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 19, 2019 19:43:04 GMT -8
I’m back from the Delta Quadrant. However I might be in a mirror universe. Sponge is a bear on Apple....Hmmm.
If Spock has a beard, I’m selling out to the Ferenghi.
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Post by BillH on Sept 19, 2019 21:13:48 GMT -8
I’m back from the Delta Quadrant. However I might be in a mirror universe. Sponge is a bear on Apple....Hmmm. If Spock has a beard, I’m selling out to the Ferenghi. It's nice to see you back. Any new revelations along the way?
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