chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 24, 2019 5:21:03 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Sept 24, 2019 5:52:01 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Sept 24, 2019 7:11:51 GMT -8
The bulls tried to get us passed 222 but failed. I see a quick flush to the 50MA (210) and slow steady climb into earnings. If I get lucky we cold see 226 again. Perfect time to go all in with puts. I just need to see RSI over 70.
I expect weak guidance and we will have a major sell off post earnings.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Sept 24, 2019 7:29:00 GMT -8
What numbers would be weak guidance? I expect conservative and maybe a wider band, but not weak Y.O.Y. actual. I'm hoping there are some late October minor refresh or intros (tags, AirPods, HomePods, MacBook Air, AppleTV, etc.). And, no prominent iPhone battery upgrade program.
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Post by sponge on Sept 24, 2019 7:36:00 GMT -8
What numbers would be weak guidance? I expect conservative and maybe a wider band, but not weak Y.O.Y. actual. I'm hoping there are some late October minor refresh or intros (tags, AirPods, HomePods, etc.). And, no prominent iPhone battery upgrade program. I expect guidance to be between 78-82 billion.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 24, 2019 7:54:25 GMT -8
What numbers would be weak guidance? I expect conservative and maybe a wider band, but not weak Y.O.Y. actual. I'm hoping there are some late October minor refresh or intros (tags, AirPods, HomePods, etc.). And, no prominent iPhone battery upgrade program. I expect guidance to be between 78-82 billion. You should compare your figures with Gregg, who believes AAPL will report $62B (!) for iPhones alone in Dec. quarter. You two used to play from the same song sheet. Learning a new instrument?
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Post by sponge on Sept 24, 2019 8:04:52 GMT -8
I expect guidance to be between 78-82 billion. You should compare your figures with Gregg, who believes AAPL will report $62B (!) for iPhones alone in Dec. quarter. You two used to play from the same song sheet. Learning a new instrument? LOL Gregg has always been a super bull. He will be wrong again. Revenue and margins will be down. I base my estimates not on TA but my own buying habits. If I am not excited and not tempted to get the latest iPhone, most are not as well. Apple will try to inject new interest with the SE in Spring, but it won’t be enough. Peak iPHone in 2015, since then it has only risen because of price increase. Not a good strategy and TC is to blame.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 24, 2019 8:16:39 GMT -8
Even with the correction, they are only predicting about 5% above the average for the past few years. I think they are way too conservative. I cannot imagine anyone being willing to tolerate 4Glte speeds and latency once they have seen the new phones, I might be wrong, I often am, but How you gonna keep em down on the farm after they've seen 5G?(Apologies to Sophie Tucker)
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 24, 2019 8:24:20 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 24, 2019 8:34:42 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2019 9:49:25 GMT -8
I expect guidance to be between 78-82 billion. You should compare your figures with Gregg, who believes AAPL will report $62B (!) for iPhones alone in Dec. quarter. You two used to play from the same song sheet. Learning a new instrument? How on earth would Gregg or anyone else not inside Apple have any possible idea what they will report? Why does anyone give these blind dart throwers any credence whatsoever? 🎯 Ludicrous.
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Post by plcm123 on Sept 24, 2019 10:28:06 GMT -8
I think earnings will be very good with Airpods and Apple Watch continue to sell like hot cakes and with Services beating expectations. The positive response to the iPhone 11 will round out another YOY increase. People will upgrade their iPhone to 11 before the holidays so they can capture the special moments of the holidays.
Those who have iPhone 5, 6 and 7 have waited long enough so they'll upgrade to the 11, they're not going to hold out for the 5G because if they were able to hold off on the features of the 7, 8, and 10, they will pass up the 5G next year and get it the following year.
The bottom line is that Apple users are loyal to Apple quality and design and ecosystem, as long as Apple keeps improving the user experience. $100 sales price differences or not, are not going to affect customer decision when they know the value of the Apple experience is worth much much more.
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Post by sponge on Sept 24, 2019 11:06:37 GMT -8
We normally follow the SPY or overshoot by 2x on days like this.
So we are much stronger and will most likely catch-up in the next two days.
Just saw that the 50 MA happens to match the gap from 9/4 at about 209.
Odds are getting stronger that we will visit that number.
We are making lower lows from last week.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Sept 24, 2019 12:20:26 GMT -8
Sponge “I base my estimates not on TA but my own buying habits. If I am not excited and not tempted to get the latest iPhone, most are not as well.”
[/quote]
An interesting way to base a guess on earnings outlook to be guided.
You may be right - if you are on the sidelines and waiting to purchase - then so are most others. Maybe Apple is broken. But may I recommend a few visits to an Apple Store and chats with your UPS and FedEx delivery drivers.
I’m glad I put aside my urge to sell after a few disappointing AppleStore and support interactions. I looked at the cash amassed and being generated, and hung on. I still am.
BTW, my recent interactions at the store are much improved. (Yes, I still call them stores.)
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 24, 2019 12:48:24 GMT -8
Before the effects of impeachment gossip get discussed, ill add:
Picked up a green pro phone yesterday. Store was rammed. No stock of many models if you hadnt resrved. Staff seemed tired but loving it.
And the camera on this thing is incredible. Game changing I’d say for iphone photography.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 24, 2019 12:55:19 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 24, 2019 15:58:09 GMT -8
We normally follow the SPY or overshoot by 2x on days like this. So we are much stronger and will most likely catch-up in the next two days. Just saw that the 50 MA happens to match the gap from 9/4 at about 209. Odds are getting stronger that we will visit that number. We are making lower lows from last week. lol
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