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Post by rosie on Jan 2, 2013 9:28:21 GMT -8
I moved on from Nick also because he was no better than us. I found him adding zero value to me, so I don't read him anymore. His arrogance certainly is offensive. But it's his blog, so he can certainly say whatever he chooses. I'm with you guys. I choose not to follow him. Not comparing apples to rotten apples, but Scott Redler's technical info seems a lot more worthwhile than Nick's self serving imaginary empire.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 2, 2013 9:30:00 GMT -8
The US is the envy of the world... Most influential? Yes. Most powerful? Yes. Envy of the world? Certainly not.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 9:31:29 GMT -8
Lovey, question is, do we fill? I would not think we would today, but you never know. I'm sure we'll fill as part of a normal retrace. Is it really a Gap if you're just retracing old territory?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 9:38:13 GMT -8
The US is the envy of the world... Jeez, that's a little harsh...if you don't like what he writes on his own blog, just don't read it. It's the great thing about the internet. As a Canadian who has travelled extensively, I really don't think the rest of the world envies the US much anymore. I'm just in my early 30's, so maybe it used to be different, but there are a ton of very good countries that are very comparable if not better to live in than the US starting with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Britian, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Japan. Each of these first world countries has things that are better than the US and also has things about them that are worse than the US. It's great to be patriotic, but I think it would also be blind to think the US is where everyone wants to live anymore. It is far less common for a US Citizen who starts in the bottom 20% of income to make it into the top 20%. For example, three-quarters of Danes born in the lowest-earning 20% of the population escape their plight in adulthood. Seven out of ten poor children in supposedly class-ridden Britain achieve the same feat. But fewer than six in ten Americans do so.
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Post by roni on Jan 2, 2013 9:39:58 GMT -8
Lee Cooperman on CNBC. Hope he say good things about AAPL or at least not bad things. ... Tune in now. He will comment on AAPL after break. only caught a small fraction of what he said. sorry Likes QCOM better than AAPL. Capital Allocation not good. 130B cash too much. Hampering valuation. Technicals not good Fundementals not as much potential as competitors catching up. pls add if i missed I saw the segment - I think you nailed it. He still owns Apple, but not as much. As I thought about that I said to myself, I said "Self, you like it better than Cooperman, but on a % basis you hold less AAPL also." Can't bitch I guess. I still read Nansen some, do not consider him an AAPL thought leader but I also wish some of the harsh language would find someplace else to go. It distresses me to read it here.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2013 9:45:16 GMT -8
People worth reading and listening to?
Avi: EW Redler: technicals iPad: all-around coverage Gregg: a perspective unlike anyone else, which I find very interesting
Just put in an order for more Oct 700/715 spreads @ 2.10.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 2, 2013 10:13:48 GMT -8
I still read Nansen some, do not consider him an AAPL thought leader but I also wish some of the harsh language would find someplace else to go. It distresses me to read it here. +1. I have about had my fill of this place due to the nasty tone of so many posts. Seems like we are now the home of "angry man" content.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 2, 2013 10:19:31 GMT -8
I am too, but my concerns are: 1) The Mini has lower margins - which could negatively impact Apple's overall margin. The question is -- how much lower (if indeed it has lower margins) Component costs on breakdowns seemed to indicate that the mini has better margins than the regular iPad. We'll get more pieces to the puzzle come earnings. Where did you see that? I don't believe it to be possible.
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Post by highway2heel on Jan 2, 2013 10:26:30 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2013 10:30:13 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2013 10:40:23 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Jan 2, 2013 10:40:42 GMT -8
I still read Nansen some, do not consider him an AAPL thought leader but I also wish some of the harsh language would find someplace else to go. It distresses me to read it here. +1. I have about had my fill of this place due to the nasty tone of so many posts. Seems like we are now the home of "angry man" content. Learned a long time ago working with some truly brilliant people, no one has all the right answers to everything. Everyone has shortcomings. People's nature is to want the simple answer buttoned up into a whole package but life and people are complex. The challenge is to recognize and take away only the best views, ideas, traits et al and ignore the rest.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 2, 2013 10:47:08 GMT -8
What a great post - made me laugh - thanks! By the way, I met Bill Gates once - he is short - thin - has translucent skin (don't think he's ever seen the sun) and fragile looking. This was about ten years ago...but all I could think of was that it was a good thing he was loaded or he wouldn't be dating anyone any time soon. PS His hair was really greasey too! Nasty!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 10:56:47 GMT -8
I am very bullish about the income potential from this product. I am too, but my concerns are: 1) The Mini has lower margins - which could negatively impact Apple's overall margin. The question is -- how much lower (if indeed it has lower margins) 2) The mini lost many sales this Christmas Season because they weren't in stock at any store I looked at - lots of normal iPads but I never saw a mini in stock anywhere. 3) How much did the Mini take away from normal iPad sales? If someone wanted a mini and couldn't find one in a store I doubt they would settle for a normal iPad. Ok, some would, but I think those sales are either lost or postponed. You are over thinking it, and over thinking an issue causes brain freeze.
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Post by lance on Jan 2, 2013 11:01:04 GMT -8
Raymond James and Asscoiates price Cut. - In the report, the analysts wrote, “We are maintaining our Outperform rating on shares of AAPL and lowering our price target to $690 from $700. We continue to view Apple’s growth rate as slowing, but still consistent with double-digit top line growth for the foreseeable future, and EPS growth improving as FY13 progresses. We view AAPL as attractively valued given this outlook, which does not explicitly assume iPhone launches at any unannounced carriers or new product lines”.
Honestly on a stock in the 500's how can you justify the point of a ten dollar price cut when the stock moves more than 15 dollars a day. Who can be that precise? Soon we will have dollar price target cuts just to make a negative news story.
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Post by prazan on Jan 2, 2013 11:02:48 GMT -8
+1. I have about had my fill of this place due to the nasty tone of so many posts. Seems like we are now the home of "angry man" content. Learned a long time ago working with some truly brilliant people, no one has all the right answers to everything. Everyone has shortcomings. People's nature is to want the simple answer buttoned up into a whole package but life and people are complex. The challenge is to recognize and take away only the best views, ideas, traits et al and ignore the rest. Wise post. This jibes with my experience.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 2, 2013 11:07:45 GMT -8
I still read Nansen some, do not consider him an AAPL thought leader but I also wish some of the harsh language would find someplace else to go. It distresses me to read it here. +1. I have about had my fill of this place due to the nasty tone of so many posts. Seems like we are now the home of "angry man" content. You have to look past the angry whining and not throw out the baby with the bathwater. There are still some good things worth reading here, and you can trust that iPad will put an end to it if it gets bad enough.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 2, 2013 11:08:46 GMT -8
Raymond James and Asscoiates price Cut. - In the report, the analysts wrote, “We are maintaining our Outperform rating on shares of AAPL and lowering our price target to $690 from $700. The odd part is I'm firming up my low end price target of 750 to something more formidable. Or, increasing confidence in meeting the 820 price target.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 11:09:07 GMT -8
I have no use for Nick. He has moved on from AAPL because he was no better than any of the rest of us I moved on from Nick also because he was no better than us. I found him adding zero value to me, so I don't read him anymore. His arrogance certainly is offensive. But it's his blog, so he can certainly say whatever he chooses. I'm with you guys. I choose not to follow him. Not comparing apples to rotten apples, but Scott Redler's technical info seems a lot more worthwhile than Nick's self serving imaginary empire. I have come to a point where I pay very little attention to the self-proclaimed AAPL experts. Apple is not IBM, GE, INTC, GOOG or AMZN. Therefore you cannot "analyze" AAPL in the same MBA manner that the others are valued. My method is to determine institutional sentiment (they are the ones actually putting money on the line) and putting my money where I think AAPL will actually go. To that end I'll be watching Monday's trading very closely. Since AAPL began its slide back on Sept 21, it has not traded up 4 days in a row, and 3 days in a row only twice. An up Monday will be a first in over 3 months, and to me signal (depending on the strength of trading that day) that investor sentiment has returned After that I only have to decide where I think AAPL will be on expiry and day after earnings. Trade volume should help ascertain that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 2, 2013 11:17:34 GMT -8
II+, I think the assembled Nansen-sour people refer to Nansen's place, not this one. iPad will certainly not stand for excessive anger stuff here.
I have people and experts I respect but I've always been an own-my-mistakes kinda trader-investor.
I'd like AAPL to keep most of its gains for the "pro gap" theory to hold. But if there's some retrace from 501-550 or whatever, that's fine too. I'll sit back and wait for a better setup.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 2, 2013 11:22:21 GMT -8
I was at the Verizon store two days ago (switched from AT&T). I asked a couple of their reps about Apple. Of all the tablets, they said the mini is selling the most, much better than the bigger iPads. And the iPhone 5 is their best selling phone but the S III is doing great too.
During the 90 minutes I was there, I saw many people visiting the store with iPhones (4S and 5) and 4 new iPhone 5's being sold in front of me. I did not see a single S III being picked up by anyone.
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Post by renee on Jan 2, 2013 11:23:58 GMT -8
I also wish some of the harsh language would find someplace else to go. It distresses me to read it here. + 1 Aapl performance over the last 3 months is stressful enough without personal attacks on bloggers
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 2, 2013 11:32:02 GMT -8
That's very interesting! However I still don't quite believe it. First of all, they are comparing the margin to the time of release of the the new iPad. If there were cost reductions to be had over the last 9 months, they would have been applied to production of new iPad as well as to iPad mini. Second, none of these sources have shown the exact numbers as were shown in the $188 analysis of the iPad mini. I am looking at the numbers, and unless the screen itself is substantially more expensive than previously estimated, I don't see it. Can anyone help with the numbers? I can't find comparable numbers for iPad when compared to the numbers for Ipad mini at this link here - www.isuppli.com/Teardowns/News/Pages/Low-End-iPad-mini-Carries-188-Bill-of-Materials-Teardown-Analysis-Reveals.aspxIn order for the iPad to have same gross BOM margin as the mini here, it would have to cost about $100 more (for the $499 16GB model). As far as I can tell, the differences are: 10" retina versus 8" non-retina, better processor (A6X versus A5), larger battery (42.5 versus 16.3 W-h). Hmmm, now that I think about it some more, I suppose it's possible, but it all hinges on the cost of the display and the battery.
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Post by renee on Jan 2, 2013 11:49:40 GMT -8
Forgive me if this is obvious, but these numbers indicate that Apple is earning $183 for each ipad and only $141 for each ipad mini. Therefore, to the extent that consumers are buying the mini instead of the regular ipad, Apple is earning $42 less profit per sale. It's not that the margin for the mini is so unfavorable, but rather the lower sale price of one item v. another.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 2, 2013 11:50:47 GMT -8
Back to AAPL, I want AAPL to keep most of its gains today. Call it 546-547ish. >550 could be another important psychological level.
Just thinking out loud as my own personal "scorekeeping" on AAPL. DYODD!*** I'm not buying in again today without some huge momo burst though. Not seeing it as of now. Of course AAPL could always go up another 20 pts. tomorrow, who knows.
A little digestion is healthy I think, as AAPL doesn't look to be in immediate technical danger. If anything I'd like AAPL to trade less violently.
***Do Your Own Due Diligence
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Post by kloot on Jan 2, 2013 12:01:32 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2013 12:04:55 GMT -8
Forgive me if this is obvious, but these numbers indicate that Apple is earning $183 for each ipad and only $141 for each ipad mini. Therefore, to the extent that consumers are buying the mini instead of the regular ipad, Apple is earning $42 less profit per sale. It's not that the margin for the mini is so unfavorable, but rather the lower sale price of one item v. another. Here's a better way of looking at it... Apple is earning $141 for each mini opposed to the $0 they would be earning when that customer purchased a Nexus 7 instead because they wanted a smaller tablet. Or maybe that customer purchases nothing at all.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 2, 2013 12:04:56 GMT -8
Some nice volume for the upside for a nice change. let's ignore that the indices popped at the same time update: moody re-affirms US credit rating. needs future changes
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 12:13:29 GMT -8
Forgive me if this is obvious, but these numbers indicate that Apple is earning $183 for each ipad and only $141 for each ipad mini. Therefore, to the extent that consumers are buying the mini instead of the regular ipad, Apple is earning $42 less profit per sale. It's not that the margin for the mini is so unfavorable, but rather the lower sale price of one item v. another. They may be earning less per device, but they are selling a whole lot more devices compared to before the Mini was introduced. ASP goes down, but total profit increases. The only way this would be bad is if the supply constrained Mini was cannibalising the majority of full size iPad sales (which in my view is certainly a possibility).
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Post by prazan on Jan 2, 2013 12:15:08 GMT -8
I learned two key lessons last year, which I've turned into resolutions for the current year.
Resolution #1: When facing an extended period of being non compos mentis, take at least half of everything not super long term off the table. It's too hard to make good decisions after surgery or when having a baby, and trusting to luck doesn't always work. Cash in some chips and wait for clarity to return.
Resolution #2: Make my own damn mistakes. I call this "Mav's Rule." I signed on to an expensive service last year because I felt I didn't know enough about options. It was the single most costly decision I've made. I can lose my own money well enough. I don't need to pay someone to help me lose money.
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