walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 5:26:01 GMT -8
links:
good luck to the longs! (we'll need it today )
...today might be a reminder that aapl can't run away on its own without broader market cooperation... aapl down almost 2 bucks in pre-market as i type (edit while correcting date: make that 4 bucks after the first 30min... bye-bye $230, hello $220 missed you so! spongie, you got lucky with those calls! )
there should be no surprise here! tariffs slow down economy in many unexpected ways... so they can bring on or accelerate a recession... they can hurt china (maybe even more) but they hurt the us too... cutting off nose to spite face
the tariff lovers here should look up smoot-hawley whose tariff prolonged the great depression unnecessarily ( link)
here below is a photo of these two handsome gentlemen... it's black and white, but they were known for orange hair and... uhrm... 'plain' talking style just like their distant cousin pasted in the middle there
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 2, 2019 5:45:24 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 6:08:30 GMT -8
Lotsa red this morning, including AAPL, so buckle up. (Walter, today is October 2) fixed thanks!
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Post by sponge on Oct 2, 2019 7:04:09 GMT -8
Given that we hit 228 yesterday but closed 3.5 points lower on stronger volume, it is not a surprise that we would go red today. The SPY closed below 295 and its 50MA.
Too soon to tell if we will keep dropping tomorrow.. The 217 is my target to get into puts and 225 to get into calls with small positions. The MACD has not crossed to the bulls and now is moving quickly tot he bears. If we drop below 217 then I think we could be on the way to 209 and even 199.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 2, 2019 7:05:02 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US?
DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do.
The Chinese laugh at how weak we are.
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Post by sponge on Oct 2, 2019 7:37:56 GMT -8
Just closed the gap from Monday. Let’s see if we start to recover from here or keep breaking down.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 7:42:39 GMT -8
The 217 is my target to get into puts and 225 to get into calls with small positions.
buy high sell low, spongie?
innovative strategy! do keep us posted!
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Post by plcm123 on Oct 2, 2019 7:59:52 GMT -8
Well, so far no end-of-quarter warning letter from Tim Cook so that's good news.
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Post by plcm123 on Oct 2, 2019 8:02:38 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. Other countries do it also because they are usually smaller and not as rich as the US. China economy is growing yes, but the US is still much stronger and richer. The extra money that the Chinese get from less tariffs are being spent in the US in good and services through tourism anyway, which benefits the US economy. If the US want to pick on somebody, try picking on North Korea.
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Post by sponge on Oct 2, 2019 8:05:16 GMT -8
K after studying the charts a little more, I think 228 was the high and we wont see it again for a few years.
The damage from today will not be repaired anytime soon so we can forget ATH.
The SPY and QQQ are in sever bearish trajectory. Ironically we look similar to last year at this time but a week early. Economic indicators are significantly worse now then last year..
I think talks may produce some results but not a real deal. The market will however initially react negatively without a deal, but more future talks will get us back up.
It is fun to watch it all play out.
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 2, 2019 8:07:02 GMT -8
The 217 is my target to get into puts and 225 to get into calls with small positions.
buy high sell low, spongie?
innovative strategy! do keep us posted! Sponge normally charges for this kind of advice, but we're so *lucky* to get it free here. Sponge, I kid... I BTFD this morning, after trimming in the $224 area. Missed the $228 yesterday. FWIW, I'm mostly in shares these days. If I buy any more options, AAPL will have to go a lot lower.
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 2, 2019 8:08:46 GMT -8
K after studying the charts a little more, I think 228 was the high and we wont see it again for a few years. The damage from today will not be repaired anytime soon so we can forget ATH. The SPY and QQQ are in sever bearish trajectory. Ironically we look similar to last year at this time but a week early. Economic indicators are significantly worse now then last year.. I think talks may produce some results but not a real deal. The market will however initially react negatively without a deal, but more future talks will get us back up. It is fun to watch it all play out. Sponge, do you predict things like the Kentucky Derby too?
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 2, 2019 8:14:02 GMT -8
Well, so far no end-of-quarter warning letter from Tim Cook so that's good news. I have no worries about FQ4 earnings. December guidance should be fine, but ask me after October's event.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 2, 2019 8:37:58 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. Yes, the Chinese are better negotiators than trump could ever be, which is why we are in the mess we are in. The US manufacturing index just dropped to the level it was at when President Obama took office during the Great Recession, and jobs growth is slowing. I don't anticipate better macroeconomic news for a good, long while. We'll see. But I do like my brand new iMac, so I'm trying to help.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Oct 2, 2019 8:45:53 GMT -8
I'd just want to remind folks that back in February 2019, Sponge also thought 175 was the high for the year so yeah, DYODD. EDIT: I've started screenshoting these predications so that we can come back and revisit some of the more colorful ones.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 8:59:13 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. ah, the PATRIOT is back!
let's not quibble over strategy or tactics... the latter are just the more local/short-term version of the former... whichever way it suits you: ...trump's trade war and tariffs has been a losing strategy for america's economy and business climate and uncertainty (and the stock market*) ...trump's trade war and tariffs has been a losing tactic for america's economy and business climate and uncertainty (and the stock market*) whichever door you pick, it's the same... and don't preach about whining americans... djt is whining daily (hourly) on twitter how unfair every one is... bad media, bad democrats, bad fed, bad china... everyone so bad for the stock market, except his stable genius! isn't he an 'america first' president? he then should think about ordinary americans and not just himself, quit the whining... put up or shut up! ----------- * at 2875 s&p500 today is in the same place it was on january 26, 2018... 20 months ago! back then it was all on the back of the tax cut (which i neither agree nor disagree with... but certainly appreciate as individual taxpayer and shareholder)... this was before the trade war broke out
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Post by sponge on Oct 2, 2019 9:03:13 GMT -8
I'd just want to remind folks that back in February 2019, Sponge also thought 175 was the high for the year so yeah, DYODD. EDIT: I've started screenshoting these predications so that we can come back and revisit some of the more colorful ones. Yes I was wrong because I failed to read the chart properly. RSI was so low in Dec that the sling shot affect took us to 88. WS also decided to reward Apple for not having worsening earnings and was satisfied with mediocre earnings. Bottom line is that I have always made money when buying puts and calls at proper RSI and MACD readings.
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Post by hyci004 on Oct 2, 2019 9:16:21 GMT -8
I'd just want to remind folks that back in February 2019, Sponge also thought 175 was the high for the year so yeah, DYODD. EDIT: I've started screenshoting these predications so that we can come back and revisit some of the more colorful ones. Yes I was wrong because I failed to read the chart properly. RSI was so low in Dec that the sling shot affect took us to 88. WS also decided to reward Apple for not having worsening earnings and was satisfied with mediocre earnings. Bottom line is that I have always made money when buying puts and calls at proper RSI and MACD readings. **always** It’s statistically impossible unless we have the greatest trader here.
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Post by silkstone on Oct 2, 2019 9:21:54 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. Our “leadership” has tarriffed us into what is prolly the start of the next recession then tried to blame it on the Fed. Blame others, deny everything, make counter accusations. It’s tactics not strategy. America has always been an inclusive country which is why we are also the greatest country. That is our heritage and all attempts to go away from that fundamental will be rejected. In other news, Apple is still the greatest investment out there.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 9:27:06 GMT -8
K after studying the charts a little more, I think 228 was the high and we wont see it again for a few years.
thank you sponge!!! needed to hear from you before placing bets... so i followed mercel and BTFDd (yet another swing trade)
i think there are a few things going on...
...reaction to poor economic data... this one is justified
...fear of repeat of last year's q4... which was pretty much a bear market (20% correction)... but does it have to repeat?
...pessimism on trade war... it's been exhausting to have this uncertainty overhang, and markets hate uncertainty... but isn't it reasonable to expect a pop if there's a trade deal?
cheers to the longs!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 9:33:32 GMT -8
Bottom line is that I have always made money when buying puts and calls at proper RSI and MACD readings. **always** It’s statistically impossible unless we have the greatest trader here.
hyci004... you may be new here so allow me to suggest... sponge's statements need not be taken literally, at face value... but rather.. urhm-hrmmm... how can i put it... metaphorically!
i used to question sponge and argue with him... until i realized how valuable he is as a contrarian indicator.
in other words... like that movie.... 'Dr. StrangeSponge or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying about my trading and to Love the Sponge'
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 10:49:26 GMT -8
rod hall from gs had a big role in the reversal from $226 to $217 on sept 12/13... that's not even 3 weeks ago!!
what an attention wh**e
***
i might be wrong, but analyst price targets seem to have the most wide discrepancy... a whole bunch of real bears (rod hall, ferragu, etc) with $150-$170 targets... and a good bunch of bulls with bullish targets of $245-$265!
i think it used to be everyone clumped in the middle, with some lone moron like ed zabitsky or colin gillis... and on the top, it was always brian white or dan ives
anyone remember differently?
what does it mean for our fruit co and its stock?
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Post by deasys on Oct 2, 2019 11:25:23 GMT -8
K after studying the charts a little more, I think 228 was the high and we wont see it again for a few years.Best sponge quote ever! So, 2022 then, spongie? I can hardly wait… Hey, is that a banana hammock followed by an inverted camel toe pattern I see? Whoa…
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Post by duckpins on Oct 2, 2019 11:30:38 GMT -8
China is not an enemy. The corporations who made the laws that allow them to take their factories brick by brick to Mexico, China or Mongolia and receive a huge tax break to do so are the enemy. As long as Trump distracts his sheep from the wolves he is doing his job. What was China suppose to say, "No we don't want your business because it will hurt the middle class that FDR built and the capitalist pigs are now trying to destroy?" It is ludicrous to blame the Chinese for doing exactly what Wall Street wanted. But it works with Trump's uniformed base. So we will hear this stuff at possibly for years to come.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 2, 2019 11:37:29 GMT -8
China is not an enemy. The corporations who made the laws that allow them to take their factories brick by brick to Mexico, China or Mongolia and receive a huge tax break to do so are the enemy. As long as Trump distracts his sheep from the wolves he is doing his job. What was China suppose to say, "No we don't want your business because it will hurt the middle class that FDR built and the capitalist pigs are now trying to destroy?" It is ludicrous to blame the Chinese for doing exactly what Wall Street wanted. But it works with Trump's uniformed base. So we will hear this stuff at possibly for years to come. You nailed it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 2, 2019 12:05:37 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. Other countries do it also because they are usually smaller and not as rich as the US. China economy is growing yes, but the US is still much stronger and richer. The US is a rich country?! More like the brokest most insolvent country in the history of the Milky Way galaxy. $22.7T in debt, for which we have to borrow just to pay the interest thereon, and that doesn't count unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security which are hopelessly doomed by any GAAP accounting, let alone the trillions in "free!" Democrat giveaways that all those lunatics like Bernie and Fauxchahontas are promising.
Is China our enemy? A trading partner that war games about destroying us. Regardless, it is funny seeing libs defend China, who for years cried about outsourcing of US jobs and goods there, but now that Trump is actually trying to do something about it, Orange Man Bad, China good! Total intellectual dishonesty.
And yeah, the markets and WS are totally cool with Nancy trying to effect a coup on the president.
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Post by sponge on Oct 2, 2019 12:27:25 GMT -8
Hard to say if we will go much lower, but we did not recover enough to say we are out of the woods.
In AH we are revisiting the lows of the day.
Not a good time to buy calls.
I will now wait to get in until the 11th. Looking at Dec puts.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 2, 2019 12:30:46 GMT -8
Other countries do it also because they are usually smaller and not as rich as the US. China economy is growing yes, but the US is still much stronger and richer. The US is a rich country?! More like the brokest most insolvent country in the history of the Milky Way galaxy. $22.7T in debt, for which we have to borrow just to pay the interest thereon, and that doesn't count unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security which are hopelessly doomed by any GAAP accounting, let alone the trillions in "free!" Democrat giveaways that all those lunatics like Bernie and Fauxchahontas are promising. Is China our enemy? A trading partner that war games about destroying us. Regardless, it is funny seeing libs defend China, who for years cried about outsourcing of US jobs and goods there, but now that Trump is actually trying to do something about it, Orange Man Bad, China good! Total intellectual dishonesty.
And yeah, the markets and WS are totally cool with Nancy trying to effect a coup on the president. Why is it that Moscow Mitch and the rest of the party in charge keep getting us deeper in debt? Oh for the days of Bill Clinton, when the budget was balanced for once brief shining moment, then exploded by still more Republican tax cuts.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Oct 2, 2019 13:09:31 GMT -8
Funny, if tariffs and protectionism are so bad, why are other countries doing it to the US? DJT's tariffs aren't strategic, they are tactical. Sad that, as usual, whiny Americans will cry and fold before our enemies do. The Chinese laugh at how weak we are. Other countries do it also because they are usually smaller and not as rich as the US. China economy is growing yes, but the US is still much stronger and richer. The extra money that the Chinese get from less tariffs are being spent in the US in good and services through tourism anyway, which benefits the US economy. If the US want to pick on somebody, try picking on North Korea. North Korea is and has been supported by China since the late 1940's. Just as North Vietnam was supported. Without China, those countries would not have existed. China is the problem.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 2, 2019 13:31:36 GMT -8
And yeah, the markets and WS are totally cool with Nancy trying to effect a coup on the president.
hey mr resident patriot! (since you always wax poetic how we should endure market losses to be patriots of the country)
how about YOU be a patriot for once and ...support the rule of law ...support our democratic institutions ...support the separation of powers enshrined in the constitution ...support america's long-term economic prosperity...
...instead of rallying for a wanna-be dictator and calling a legal process against him by the legislative branch a 'coup'!
not helpful either is you calling everyone who doesn't agree with you 'libs'... i'm a moderate john mccain kind of guy... but i can see trump destroying this country
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