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Post by flyonthewall on Jan 3, 2013 0:06:36 GMT -8
Happy New Year to AAPL Finance Board! While playing around on YouTube© these last few days of freedom and relaxation, I came across a brilliant animated video on what a good operating system should do, and how Windows 8© totally fails. The basic premise, is that all operating systems must have four critical areas that make the user experience smooth, intuitive, and elegant. Although 23 min long, and using a few colorful words or phrases (they go by quickly,) the video makes the case for the Mac alternative more clearly and succinctly than I have ever seen before. It is a devastating piece on Mr. Ballmer's latest creation. Sit back and smile. Windows 8: The Animated Evaluation by Brian Boyko
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Post by rosie on Jan 3, 2013 1:01:28 GMT -8
When the narrator described windows 8 as less user friendly than DOS? A LOL moment!
This all reminded me of the reason for the purchase of my first iMac. It was one night around midnight in early '09. I had finally gotten past the blue screen of death in ugh Vista. I was sooo tired of Dellhell.
I got into the online apple store before the system once again crashed. I ordered a 24" iMac. 36 hours later I was opening the box, plugging it in, and a whole new world of intuitive action commenced. A system that just made sense. What a relief. I've never looked back.
Which is part of why we are all here.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 4:12:53 GMT -8
Good morning - fyi:
In Appadevice.com: Taiwanese newspaper is reporting that AAPL now wants Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. to create its next line of processors. It’s expected to start producing the A6X processors in the first Q of 2013, which is ahead of what the industry had thought. Everyone thought they would stick with Samsung until the second half of 2013. Glad to see things are moving along quicker in that respect. We need to break off ties sooner rather than later in my opinion.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 4:54:35 GMT -8
Someone from Avi's trading group posted this morning:
Sir John Templeton: "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria."
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 5:35:16 GMT -8
Someone from Avi's trading group posted this morning: Sir John Templeton: "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria."
And add a PS to that "and die of talk of CARS!" I hereby decree all talk of cars prohibited as they are a JINX on the stock!
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Post by Rupert on Jan 3, 2013 6:03:59 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Thursday 01/03/2013
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coma
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Post by coma on Jan 3, 2013 6:09:58 GMT -8
I hereby decree all talk of cars prohibited as they are a JINX on the stock! but, but the stock (AAPL) provided the funds to buy the cars, so how does that work ?
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 3, 2013 6:14:25 GMT -8
Car talk is not a jinx, it's a leading indicator. Call it the CT indicator and include it in Lovey's charts. Probably better than Fast Sto or MACD-h.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 6:17:14 GMT -8
Someone from Avi's trading group posted this morning: Sir John Templeton: "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria."
A case could be made for each right now. I actually had a bad thought this morning about 555 being the top and we proceed down from here. Now that is a bad way to get your morning started.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 6:22:57 GMT -8
That ADP number is above expectations. That should balance out the UE rise. DOW has gone up 500 points in two days and AAPL 40, why does it feel like we are on the short end of the stick?
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 6:26:25 GMT -8
MB - for the new year you may want to have your avatar have a smile instead of a sad frown - things will get better - I promise.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2013 6:28:18 GMT -8
That ADP number is above expectations. That should balance out the UE rise. DOW has gone up 500 points in two days and AAPL 40, why does it feel like we are on the short end of the stick? If AAPL goes to 13000 today, we can feel like equals.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 3, 2013 6:28:39 GMT -8
I don't know, Mark. I had a feeling this morning AAPL would be at new ATH on Feb. 25. No fundamental or technical reasons - just a feeling.
Could have been gas...
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 6:37:15 GMT -8
MB - for the new year you may want to have your avatar have a smile instead of a sad frown - things will get better - I promise. Phoebes, I have had this avatar since spring of 2007. Been through a lot. That is not a sad frown, this is a sad frown.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 6:41:00 GMT -8
Ahhhh....you're killing me. Just remember - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 2013 will be a great year - 13 is my lucky number and I'm loving AAPL and you are invited to ride my coattails to the moon!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 3, 2013 6:41:57 GMT -8
MB - for the new year you may want to have your avatar have a smile instead of a sad frown - things will get better - I promise. Phoebes, I have had this avatar since spring of 2007. Been through a lot. That is not a sad frown, this is a sad frown. It's more like angry, Mark.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 6:45:03 GMT -8
My vote - keep Avatar 1.0 ;D
After a move of about 8% (Friday-Tue close), let's see how AAPL takes its breather. Still very early.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 6:45:09 GMT -8
Ahhhh....you're killing me. Just remember - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 2013 will be a great year - 13 is my lucky number and I'm loving AAPL and you are invited to ride my coattails to the moon! I think the earnings will set the tone for the year for AAPL. There are some big risks with these earnings including: -limited availability of iPad Mini -questions around how much the Mini eats into normal iPad sales and how much this will affect margins and overall revenue -limited availability of new iMac models -many products at the beginning of their production cycle which means higher startup costs, lower margins -"normal" length quarter vs extra week quarter last year -physical limits on how many phones can actually be produced. I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many? I am sure there are some good points....anyone care to elaborate on what those could be? Solid iPhone 5 demand is one and what appears to be better production yields by mid-quarter. iPad Mini being a "hit" product (which is both good and bad as has been discussed.) Currently we are down about 3 bucks today
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 6:53:24 GMT -8
My vote - keep Avatar 1.0 ;D After a move of near 8%, let's see how AAPL takes its breather. Still very early. Mav, this was brought up years ago in the old AFB. When we had our dinner in Vegas I was even asked about it. I liked it when I saw it. I have made many friends over the years and they all know that I am a fun loving guy. Its just an avatar. Phoebes, if you knew how much I had lost at the end of the year you would understand why I am gun shy. I have never performed well in a down trend even though I could see it all play out and had targets in mind. (I did not see anything below the 625 LT trend line or breaking the 200)
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 3, 2013 6:59:41 GMT -8
Ahhhh....you're killing me. Just remember - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 2013 will be a great year - 13 is my lucky number and I'm loving AAPL and you are invited to ride my coattails to the moon! I think the earnings will set the tone for the year for AAPL. There are some big risks with these earnings including: -limited availability of iPad Mini -questions around how much the Mini eats into normal iPad sales and how much this will affect margins and overall revenue -limited availability of new iMac models -many products at the beginning of their production cycle which means higher startup costs, lower margins -"normal" length quarter vs extra week quarter last year -physical limits on how many phones can actually be produced. Currently we are down about 3 bucks today Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 7:00:05 GMT -8
Good grief, at this rate we could have a 6-7 mil volume day. Since the first half hour is usually pretty heavy volume (it is low) when the drop-off comes at 10:30 we might hear crickets.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:02:50 GMT -8
Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise. I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 3, 2013 7:03:58 GMT -8
Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise. I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. That would be a disaster.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:13:19 GMT -8
AAPL hanging in there. Went green for a moment.
42M iPhones would be horrific.
It's a little early for people to care about a 5S/6. I think they get the cadence now and not like there's any credible reports of killer features. This ain't a 4S year...yet. iPhone 5 should remain strong.
Also, MB, see memory lane post about volume from yesterday.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2013 7:14:54 GMT -8
Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise. I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. The most sold prior to 1Q12 was 20.34M. Just so you know.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:15:04 GMT -8
AAPL hanging in there. Went green for a moment. 42M iPhones would be horrific. OK, there was what, 92 days in the quarter? If you want 50 million iphones, then you have to produce 543000 phones per day. Think about that for a second. Ok, existing channel inventory may reduce that number. Ok so let's say there were 5 million phones in the channel already produced. That still leaves you with 45 million phones to produce at a rate of 489000 per day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:18:38 GMT -8
Apple does have tremendous CapEx expense this year.
Apple is not ignorant of smartphone rate of growth.
See Samsung production capacity.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:19:05 GMT -8
I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. The most sold prior to 1Q12 was 20.34M. Just so you know. No... Apple's Q1 2012 hardware sales: 37 million iPhones, 15.43 million iPads, 5.2 million Macs, 15.4 million iPods HD www.engadget.com/2012/01/24/apple-q1-2012-iphone-ipad-ipod-mac-hardware-sales/AND that quarter had an extra week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:21:39 GMT -8
appledoc did say "prior to."
Analysts should understand the normalization factor. We shall see.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:27:56 GMT -8
appledoc did say "prior to." Analysts should understand the normalization factor. We shall see. Ok, yes, but still, I think 50 million is a setup for failure. Even 40 million in my view would be stellar considering the normal length of the quarter and iphone 5 ramp up issues. Why Analysts can magically pull numbers out of their ass without researching production constraints is beyond me.
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