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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 7:28:23 GMT -8
Darren, and when did the 4S go on sale? (I know the answer, just want you to do a fair compare) Also, look at the number of launch countries last year and when they launched. Hint, China sold 2 million first weekend and did not even get until until FQ2 last year. 42-45 would not even jive with Apple's guidance. JMO, but I think 48 mil would be the minimum. That would be 30% which is great, but we know WS would pitch a fit.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:33:48 GMT -8
Darren, and when did the 4S go on sale? (I know the answer, just want you to do a fair compare) Also, look at the number of launch countries last year and when they launched. Hint, China sold 2 million first weekend and did not even get until until FQ2 last year. 42-45 would not even jive with Apple's guidance. JMO, but I think 48 mil would be the minimum. That would be 30% which is great, but we know WS would pitch a fit. The iPhone 4S launched in mid October 2011 in 7 countries (pre-orders started October 7th) and by the end of the month distribution was expanded to 22 additional countries hitting most of the major markets. 4 million were sold in the first three days (vs 5 million iphone 5's) if I am correct. I just worry that people are getting ahead of themselves. There were no production issues with the iPhone 4S which I can recall - since it was very similar in form factor to the 4 - whereas the iPhone 5 was very much different and there were production issues even stated by Foxxconn executives themselves. Remember the amateur analysts got killed the last two quarters so just be careful. It would be prudent for all of us to be conservative in the iphone 5 numbers, even keeping in mind the normal quarter length.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:34:18 GMT -8
BASE assumption on Oppy's own guidance: 45.4M iPhones @ $640 ASP, IMHO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:35:33 GMT -8
Do you listen to earnings CCs btw?
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:36:16 GMT -8
BASE assumption on Oppy's own guidance: 45.4M iPhones @ $640 ASP, IMHO. I am long AAPL so obviously I hope that holds, but there were some work stoppages and production issues. Even if they beat that I still think over 50 million is really tough. But I do not know their production capabilities so I am trying to make a semi-educated guess and err on the side of caution.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 3, 2013 7:36:42 GMT -8
appledoc did say "prior to." Analysts should understand the normalization factor. We shall see. Ok, yes, but still, I think 50 million is a setup for failure. Even 40 million in my view would be stellar considering the normal length of the quarter and iphone 5 ramp up issues. Why Analysts can magically pull numbers out of their ass without researching production constraints is beyond me. Also, Apple themselves guided 52billion in revenues- not analysts. I don't think you're getting near that with 40 million iphones. And we all know the history of Apple's conservative guidance.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:37:04 GMT -8
Do you listen to earnings CCs btw? I haven't had time to listen to the last two, but before that, yes.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 7:39:53 GMT -8
Ok, yes, but still, I think 50 million is a setup for failure. Even 40 million in my view would be stellar considering the normal length of the quarter and iphone 5 ramp up issues. Why Analysts can magically pull numbers out of their ass without researching production constraints is beyond me. Also, Apple themselves guided 52billion in revenues- not analysts. I don't think you're getting near that with 40 million iphones. And we all know the history of Apple's conservative guidance. True, although that conservatism has been shrinking, perhaps not by design but by the reality of sales. Look, I would love 55 million or 60 million phones, I just don't think it is physically possible given the issues I have raised and the time available. Maybe they have way more production capacity than I am estimating and I am totally wrong, but I have to be prepared (for my own portfolio) that they don't.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:45:52 GMT -8
If Apple misses Oppy guidance, look the heck out.
Read up on the last CC at least. TC did give color on iPhone 5 since it was already in production.
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:48:01 GMT -8
BASE assumption on Oppy's own guidance: 45.4M iPhones @ $640 ASP, IMHO. I am long AAPL so obviously I hope that holds, but there were some work stoppages and production issues. Even if they beat that I still think over 50 million is really tough. But I do not know their production capabilities so I am trying to make a semi-educated guess and err on the side of caution. Excel/Numbers/whatever spreadsheets, even more basic ones. Worth the initial couple of hours invested.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 3, 2013 7:50:13 GMT -8
Also, Apple themselves guided 52billion in revenues- not analysts. I don't think you're getting near that with 40 million iphones. And we all know the history of Apple's conservative guidance. True, although that conservatism has been shrinking, perhaps not by design but by the reality of sales. Look, I would love 55 million or 60 million phones, I just don't think it is physically possible given the issues I have raised and the time available. Maybe they have way more production capacity than I am estimating and I am totally wrong, but I have to be prepared (for my own portfolio) that they don't. Appreciate the note of caution, it tempers the giddiness and would have been much appreciated on 9-21-12. We don't know the limits to production, other than what TC said at the 10-16-12 earnings call, that he was satisfied with the production rate. We also did not hear much of IPhone 5 constraints in December - we did in October and November - so it looks like supply caught up with demand. And I don't think AAPL would have gone through with the China roll-out if production issues were still happening in December.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:51:19 GMT -8
Exactly. TC said he was happy with the production rate. That's important.
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:53:21 GMT -8
Also, I have normalized YOY earnings growth of 12% as of now. Not exactly giddy.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 7:55:13 GMT -8
Also, Apple themselves guided 52billion in revenues- not analysts. I don't think you're getting near that with 40 million iphones. And we all know the history of Apple's conservative guidance. Exactly, that is what I was trying to say without being obvious. The EPS number is PO F'ing with WS, Tim even said, "look at the revenue number". That number alone is 5 billion higher than FQ1-2012. A safe assumption is Apple beats by 5% which puts it close to 55 billion. Darren, here is the thing, WS is expecting Apple to come in at 13.30 EPS. Everyone and their brother has lowered the coffin into the ground and is ready to throw the dirt over. Actually Tetra and Mav have been very solid and not outrageous with their estimates. I guarantee you that there are many independents out there who are well over 15 and 16 for EPS, they will be in for a rude awakening. I think Gregg is well over 15 and Nick has lost his mind with his +16 EPS and 62 billion in revenue estimate. I will guess and say the Braeburn guys will be around 15, leaning towards 15.30. I am not a member there anymore so I have no idea, that is just an estimate of their estimates. ;D I truly believe that anything over 14 and AAPL/Apple will be rewarded. The move away from SS is just going to make Apple stronger in the long run.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:59:33 GMT -8
$15+ is reaching a bit in this MEGAtransition quarter. I may have to haircut Mac sales because iMac just got launched to big production bottlenecks, but not only is that baked into Oppy's sandbag guidance, it's also surprisingly "immaterial" in the context of the iOS business.
SS, MB?
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 8:02:17 GMT -8
I am long AAPL so obviously I hope that holds, but there were some work stoppages and production issues. Even if they beat that I still think over 50 million is really tough. But I do not know their production capabilities so I am trying to make a semi-educated guess and err on the side of caution. Excel/Numbers/whatever spreadsheets, even more basic ones. Worth the initial couple of hours invested. I'd like to see what other people are modeling for 1st quarter... There was that one site that listed all the analyst estimates...I wonder if they have it this quarter too?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 8:02:46 GMT -8
Darren, don't take my comments as being negative please. I am usually the cautious one and have been on the receiving end of many objections to my thinking. Honestly, being out at earnings has been the smart play for the last two quarters. Heck, April sold off so fast that if you did not sell the first few days, you gave it all back.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 8:03:46 GMT -8
$15+ is reaching a bit in this MEGAtransition quarter. I may have to haircut Mac sales because iMac just got launched to big production bottlenecks, but not only is that baked into Oppy's sandbag guidance, it's also surprisingly "immaterial" in the context of the iOS business. SS, MB? SamSung, sorry. ;D
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 8:05:29 GMT -8
Darren, don't take my comments as being negative please. I am usually the cautious one and have been on the receiving end of many objections to my thinking. Honestly, being out at earnings has been the smart play for the last two quarters. Heck, April sold off so fast that if you did not sell the first few days, you gave it all back. Ok. I am just very cautious because of the sky-high expectations that (I believe) some professional Analysts spew out there on purpose to pump and dump and really I don't trust most of them as they are out for their own firm's interests. There are a few good analysts including some on this board but I think the majority of the professional analysts cannot be trusted. It's been proven in the past (for example with Goldman Sachs) that they tell clients one thing but do the opposite.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 8:06:24 GMT -8
There's more than a few numbers around which "lead" one to think of EPS around $ 15 or so. But I have not seen enough slice and dice of iPhone numbers for VZ, Sprint and Europe.
I did haircut the Mac sales quite a bit.
Braeburn group is doing some extra checking on stuff. If I had to guess, we'll see a horizon stretching group of numbers.
Fiscal cliff issues are a concern for November and December sales.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 8:06:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 8:16:01 GMT -8
It's kind of the Mav and Cl4 Show in that thread right now but we try to keep it real, yo
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 3, 2013 8:17:16 GMT -8
IMHO, March ending numbers will be the key. CQ4 will be all about sell-in and roll out. CQ1 will be about sell-through. CQ1 2012 will be a tough compare.
Guidance both in top line and gross margin will key.
A beat and "low" guide could be quite terrible. Unless, the street dismisses the guidance from management which IMHO will depend on the CC.
I do NOT feel that investors will give AAPL a pass if they muddle through.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 8:26:01 GMT -8
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Post by kloot on Jan 3, 2013 8:27:40 GMT -8
Wall Street consensus is not 50M iPhones. if they do deliver a number >50, I think it would be considered a blowout.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 8:30:06 GMT -8
I want much better actually, but I can "settle" for 50M, being at 49.4M iPhones myself right now.
Q2 is the key, I think. Not even TC can rewrite the laws of manufacturing ramp-up for a redesigned product.
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Post by kloot on Jan 3, 2013 8:32:56 GMT -8
I switched to Bloomberg today vs cnbc. no yelling so far! #goodbyeChickenLittle
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 8:37:18 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 3, 2013 8:39:55 GMT -8
Jeff Gundlach on CNBC... AAPL bear watch
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Post by rob_london on Jan 3, 2013 8:44:04 GMT -8
I switched to Bloomberg today vs cnbc. no yelling so far! #goodbyeChickenLittle A quote from an analyst regarding CNBC: “Yesterday, on CNBC (CMCSA), I didn’t really want to do it,” Walkley says of a mid-December appearance on the network. “I had a buy on Apple, I’m positive, and they wanted to be real negative, and so it was like this confrontational interview. Negative news sells on Apple.” www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-03/apples-stock-analysts-price-targets-vary-wildly#p1
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