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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2013 8:44:19 GMT -8
Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise. I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. What gives me optimism is the fact that 2 million were sold in China in a single weekend, and various data that shows a marked increase in iOS market share in the US. Amid a growing market, the only way to grow market share so significantly is to sell a ****load of phones. Maybe sales of the 4/4S are more than we are imagining - those would be deep into their production life cycles and could be pumped out on demand. I think 50M+ is possible and should have been a target heading into the quarter. Another thing - Samsung has already done 50M in a quarter. Yes, I know iPhone build quality and production specifications are far superior but the point is that it's not an unattainable number.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 8:52:14 GMT -8
Gundlach's comment on CNBC - basically saying that he is a market guy and because AAPL took off vertically from $425 it will return there because that's what happens....and because he is a market guy....and because he is the king of art...blah, blah, blah.
Kaminsky loves putting him on. Wonder when I will run into Kaminsky with his Hawaiian shirt and flip flops on Miracle Mile on Long Island speaking loudly into his phone like his shit doesn't stink...don't you know who he is? Why he is the king of comparing AAPL to RCA for his viewers! Bow and kiss his ring! aaarrrrgggghhhh!
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Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2013 8:53:47 GMT -8
Gundlach's comment on CNBC - basically saying that he is a market guy and because AAPL took off vertically from $425 it will return there because that's what happens....and because he is a market guy....and because he is the king of art...blah, blah, blah. Kaminsky loves putting him on. Wonder when I will run into Kaminsky with his Hawaiian shirt and flip flops on Miracle Mile on Long Island speaking loudly into his phone like his shit doesn't stink...don't you know who he is? Why he is the king of comparing AAPL to RCA for his viewers! Bow and kiss his ring! aaarrrrgggghhhh! LOL
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 9:04:02 GMT -8
Well it looks like we will have something develop between 2-3 today. Don't know if it will be up or down, but I think we see some kind of move. before the end of the day.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 9:14:55 GMT -8
Finally Josh Brown called the bull shit with Stephanie Link and Henry Blodget a few moments ago as they spoke about AMZN and AAPL. Basically saying that they were all bullish on AMZN given that Bezos doesn't give a crap about margins and is investing in the company....and in the same breath that the "bearish" case for AAPL is 30%+ on GM. You can't have it both ways and measure people so dramatically different and claim you are using the same metrics.....unreal.
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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 9:21:09 GMT -8
According to my records, our peak manufacturing run rate was in Q2 2012, at 385K per day. Though production delays can result in manufacturers failing to meet targets, I suspect Apple set a target in line with expected sales growth, and spend a ton on capital equipment to hit that target. As Mav pointed out, Capex spending increases weren't trivial. If you look at the daily run rates on a quarterly basis, you can appreciate how quickly Apple has been able to ramp production. They haven't faced a limitation of capital or resources to expand. I have no doubt they targeted 50+ million units. Did they hit that target? We'll know on Jan 23rd. My estimate, the last number below, assumes that they didn't achieve optimal manufacturing efficiencies but still sold almost 50 million phones. As another has pointed out, don't forget how popular the 4S now is.
YEAR UNITS RUN RATE FQ 1 2009 4,363 48 FQ 2 2009 3,793 42 FQ 3 2009 5,208 57 FQ 4 2009 7,367 81 FQ 1 2010 8,737 96 FQ 2 2010 8,752 96 FQ 3 2010 8,398 92 FQ 4 2010 14,102 155 FQ 1 2011 16,235 178 FQ 2 2011 18,647 205 FQ 3 2011 20,338 223 FQ 4 2011 17,073 188 FQ 1 2012 37,044 378 FQ 2 2012 35,064 385 FQ 3 2012 26,028 286 FQ 4 2012 26,910 296 FQ 1 2013E 49,595 545
Forgive the crappy non WYSWYG formatting. Run rate on the right.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 9:46:01 GMT -8
$15+ is reaching a bit in this MEGAtransition quarter. I may have to haircut Mac sales because iMac just got launched to big production bottlenecks, but not only is that baked into Oppy's sandbag guidance, it's also surprisingly "immaterial" in the context of the iOS business. SS, MB? I think - and you hit the nail on the head - that in this transition quarter we need to keep as close to actual guidance as we can. In what other quarter did they have so many product transitions? None that I can think of. This has to have an effect: production issues, lower margins, limited or late quarter availability (iMacs), etc. So I would guide closer to Oppy's own guidance than ever before. I would also like to reiterate - in my own observations at multiple big box stores and smaller stores, pretty much 2-3 times per week (as my wife likes to shop all the time I go with her and check out electronics everywhere) that sell iPads - I never once saw an iPad mini "In stock" at any of these locations - at any time since it was released, yet I saw many iPads and no one buying any of them. I continued to see iPads in display cases and locked stock shelves (behind glass) AFTER Christmas. I would not discount the iPad mini and how this (may) have really hurt iPad sales overall.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 9:49:08 GMT -8
But is the street going to listen to Oppy? Or will they just throw unrealistic numbers out there? Anyone know what the street consensus is? How realistic are they?
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Post by kloot on Jan 3, 2013 9:50:57 GMT -8
some of the (hopefully) 50M are 4 and 4s phones, no? those weren't constrained during the quarter iirc.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 3, 2013 9:53:20 GMT -8
According to my records, our peak manufacturing run rate was in Q2 2012, at 385K per day. Though production delays can result in manufacturers failing to meet targets, I suspect Apple set a target in line with expected sales growth, and spend a ton on capital equipment to hit that target. As Mav pointed out, Capex spending increases weren't trivial. If you look at the daily run rates on a quarterly basis, you can appreciate how quickly Apple has been able to ramp production. They haven't faced a limitation of capital or resources to expand. I have no doubt they targeted 50+ million units. Did they hit that target? We'll know on Jan 23rd. My estimate, the last number below, assumes that they didn't achieve optimal manufacturing efficiencies but still sold almost 50 million phones. As another has pointed out, don't forget how popular the 4S now is. YEAR UNITS RUN RATE FQ 1 2009 4,363 48 FQ 2 2009 3,793 42 FQ 3 2009 5,208 57 FQ 4 2009 7,367 81 FQ 1 2010 8,737 96 FQ 2 2010 8,752 96 FQ 3 2010 8,398 92 FQ 4 2010 14,102 155 FQ 1 2011 16,235 178 FQ 2 2011 18,647 205 FQ 3 2011 20,338 223 FQ 4 2011 17,073 188 FQ 1 2012 37,044 378 FQ 2 2012 35,064 385 FQ 3 2012 26,028 286 FQ 4 2012 26,910 296 FQ 1 2013E 49,595 545 Forgive the crappy non WYSWYG formatting. Run rate on the right. to add more info... Q1 YOY growth rate average is close to 100%. 545 assumes only 44% Quarter Rate YOY Growth rate of change Q1 2009 48 Q2 2009 42 Q3 2009 57 Q4 2009 81 Q1 2010 96 100.00% Q2 2010 96 128.57% Q3 2010 92 61.40% Q4 2010 155 91.36% Q1 2011 178 85.42% Q2 2011 205 113.54% Q3 2011 223 142.39% Q4 2011 188 21.29% Q1 2012 378 112.36% Q2 2012 385 87.80% Q3 2012 286 28.25% Q4 2012 296 57.45% Q1 2013 545 44.18%
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 10:01:54 GMT -8
But is the street going to listen to Oppy? Or will they just throw unrealistic numbers out there? Anyone know what the street consensus is? How realistic are they? The Earnings Smackdown from CNN-Fortune's Philip-Elmer Dewitt is a key indicator -- if it appears this quarter. I believe it will any day now, even tho PED is on vacation. Discard some idiot numbers and the rest is Wall Street's consensus. Its a group-think process. Wall Street, Independents, ATT and VZ data. I expect the EPS whisper number to rise to near $ 13.80.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2013 10:32:04 GMT -8
But is the street going to listen to Oppy? Or will they just throw unrealistic numbers out there? Anyone know what the street consensus is? How realistic are they? The Earnings Smackdown from CNN-Fortune's Philip-Elmer Dewitt is a key indicator -- if it appears this quarter. I believe it will any day now, even tho PED is on vacation. Discard some idiot numbers and the rest is Wall Street's consensus. Its a group-think process. Wall Street, Independents, ATT and VZ data. I expect the EPS whisper number to rise to near $ 13.80. I agree...the whisper number will eventually beat last year's actual results so that Apple continues to "grow"....(forget the 14th week effect, etc....that requires actual thinking). I see 51.4 million iphones, helped by all three domestic carriers having a "free" iphone this last quarter and by the incredibly fast rollout, highlighted by exceptional demand in not only China, but Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the rest of Asia....These are millions of phones....
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 10:44:57 GMT -8
Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
;D
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Post by roni on Jan 3, 2013 11:20:38 GMT -8
I am at a little over $14 for the quarter. Can't be more exact cause the spreadsheet is at home.
Where is mace?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 11:24:24 GMT -8
Registered and a karma of 2. Imagine that. Spicy
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 11:31:01 GMT -8
Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;D A belated Christmas gift!
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Jan 3, 2013 11:31:07 GMT -8
I had to stroke his ego just for showing up.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 11:34:37 GMT -8
Traders reported a technical issue affecting securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market that resulted in unusual price moves and problems reporting transactions...I have to assume AAPL may be involved as well. This is so unacceptable...seems like it happens every few months....oh wait...it does.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 3, 2013 11:41:44 GMT -8
AAPL, stay away from that gap...
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Post by fas550 on Jan 3, 2013 11:50:34 GMT -8
Not sure if it was THE news but the markets plummeted some time after 1 on what appears to be the Fed saying they will stop QE in 2013. I think that is what started it but not 100%. Whatever the news we are following the markets down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 11:53:29 GMT -8
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Post by alice on Jan 3, 2013 11:56:10 GMT -8
Aapl is down more percentage wise.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 3, 2013 12:07:27 GMT -8
Aapl is down more percentage wise. Yes sorry I was looking at a distorted chart; modified my post.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 3, 2013 12:20:29 GMT -8
Well it looks like we will have something develop between 2-3 today. Don't know if it will be up or down, but I think we see some kind of move. before the end of the day. There you have it.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 3, 2013 12:26:08 GMT -8
Well it looks like we will have something develop between 2-3 today. Don't know if it will be up or down, but I think we see some kind of move. before the end of the day. There you have it. With 10 million volume?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 12:48:06 GMT -8
AAPL, stay away from that gap... IF we're going to fill it, THEN let's frickin fill it NOW and get it overwith!! Much more painful to drop from higher altitudes!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 12:58:47 GMT -8
Boo.
BUT could be worse.
I hate it when AAPL gaps up, particularly in a downtrend.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 3, 2013 13:01:00 GMT -8
AAPL, stay away from that gap... IF we're going to fill it, THEN let's frickin fill it NOW and get it overwith!! Much more painful to drop from higher altitudes!! maybe we'll just gap down tomorrow to 535 and then the hole is filled up and ready to break 555
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 13:01:14 GMT -8
Huh. Still above Redler's line in the sand for continuation.
For now.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 13:03:38 GMT -8
Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mace is here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;D Can't wait to see if he gets involved in the EW topic.
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