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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 13:03:41 GMT -8
Let's see what the jobs report brings in the morning then we'll know if we are filling the gap or not tomorow - ALTHO - I would add the whole world is expecting yesterday's gap to be filled both in the market and in AAPL and markets never do what you expect them to do. They do what causes the most pain on the most people...I'm hearing about lots of cash and lots of shorts (in general) out there...draw your own conclusions.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 13:07:29 GMT -8
Well it looks like we will have something develop between 2-3 today. Don't know if it will be up or down, but I think we see some kind of move. before the end of the day. Well it broke to the downside (as expected) between 2 and 3. I really have no faith in that gap holding and expect it to get filled. Of course AAPL out sucks the market, so tiring.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 13:12:02 GMT -8
MB, I believe the proper term is "high beta".
A high beta trading at a less-than-utility multiple. Mindblowing, but that's what we have.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 13:25:21 GMT -8
I'm not crying in my Kool-Aid unless we lose the daily SMA-20. Above that, I am calm, cool, and collected. Below, you will hear my shriek from around the world.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 13:31:24 GMT -8
I kinda see what you mean. Though I think that would just be a bearish bias factor more than a TRIGGER SELL to 480 or whatever. One level at a time?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2013 13:35:07 GMT -8
I want that 20 day to hold....I would feel much safer if that proves to be the case.
Jobs report tomorrow....and the Fed minutes indicate QE may be damping down...could this indicate stronger economic outlook in their (hidden) cards?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 14:02:03 GMT -8
I want that 20 day to hold....I would feel much safer if that proves to be the case. Jobs report tomorrow....and the Fed minutes indicate QE may be damping down...could this indicate stronger economic outlook in their (hidden) cards? Red, bringing QE to an end is obviously a good thing, but you know the market, it likes the easy money. Will be curious to see how the bond market reacts.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 14:06:36 GMT -8
End of QE = Stronger US Dollar = less revenue for AAPL
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 14:09:51 GMT -8
I want that 20 day to hold....I would feel much safer if that proves to be the case. Jobs report tomorrow....and the Fed minutes indicate QE may be damping down...could this indicate stronger economic outlook in their (hidden) cards? Heck, is it asking to much for the 20 DMA to point up?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 14:14:54 GMT -8
End of QE = Stronger US Dollar = less revenue for AAPL I can't remember the last time Cook, Oppenheimer or Wipfler ever blamed ForEx for unimpressive results - though ForEx is used as a sandbag excuse regularly. And burgess, don't forget currency hedging!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 14:16:46 GMT -8
End of QE = Stronger US Dollar = less revenue for AAPL Apple does not bring international revenue back into the country, the effect should be insignificant IMO. (I think you meant less profit) Stronger dollar is a good thing. It is the worlds currency.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 14:19:11 GMT -8
And currency hedging.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 14:31:34 GMT -8
Hold the phone fellas.....rates aren't going up so fast...trust me!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 14:35:05 GMT -8
I agree with Red ... this is a glass half full scenario and don't think these talking heads have it right. Biggest near term negative is the debt fiasco coming in February - but I really don't see this Fed news as negative here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 14:40:19 GMT -8
I'm gonna try to remind myself to tread very lightly in the markets starting late January. Hopefully AAPL can be "fairly" judged by its earnings results without too much interference from external factors.
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Post by alice on Jan 3, 2013 14:45:36 GMT -8
Max pain is 535.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 14:46:40 GMT -8
When your international bank account has close to 12 figures in it - you better have the best currency hedging available! In other news - Apple scored big with the Anti-FRAND abuse FTC ruling against Google today. I'm surprised there was no market reaction! The decision has far reaching consequences, and is also a big blow to Samsungs US defenses. (EDIT: HOW THE F@CK CAN GOOG BE GREEN TODAY?)
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Post by lance on Jan 3, 2013 14:50:02 GMT -8
I am going to hazard a guess The Gap will be filled tomorrow.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 15:08:28 GMT -8
I am going to hazard a guess The Gap will be filled tomorrow. Concur.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 15:10:33 GMT -8
I am going to hazard a guess The Gap will be filled tomorrow. Concur. Killing me softly....
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 15:18:23 GMT -8
Just a thought...if people thought rates may be going higher it can actually further accelerate the housing market or any borrowing type markets as a sense of urgency sets in and propels the economy quicker than anticipated. Still think the Fed comments were more positive than negative.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2013 15:24:46 GMT -8
Business Insider - yes that rag - had an article which I pulled a few sentences from...interesting:
"There's a thread on XDA Developers forum, which is a site for Android developers, that has tried to figure out Nexus sales based on serial numbers. Kim-Mai Cutler of TechCrunch sifted through the thread and says Google sold ~400,000 Nexus 4s through the end of last year.
That said, if it is true, it shows how tiny Google's sales and distribution really are for its smartphone.
Apple is expected to sell between 45 and 50 million smartphones in the holiday quarter. If we take the low end of that range, that means Apple is selling 500,000 iPhones every day."
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Post by rezonate on Jan 3, 2013 15:34:30 GMT -8
Today I was in training for installers of cell signal amplifiers. One slide in the presentation showed the oft-mentioned Android activation rate of 900,000 per day. While I have always been skeptical of that figure as a sustained rate (peak or surge rate, maybe), has it been definitively upheld or debunked?
Another stat they produced was U.S. cell phone penetration of 104%. No other constraints based on demographics. No mention of Apple devices.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 15:44:04 GMT -8
It must be at _least_ 1.5M activations per day now. And maybe 5M in 5 years?
I've never liked that nebulous activations metric.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 16:15:54 GMT -8
Today I was in training for installers of cell signal amplifiers. One slide in the presentation showed the oft-mentioned Android activation rate of 900,000 per day. While I have always been skeptical of that figure as a sustained rate (peak or surge rate, maybe), has it been definitively upheld or debunked? Another stat they produced was U.S. cell phone penetration of 104%. No other constraints based on demographics. No mention of Apple devices. Most android devices sold globally are feature phone equivalents, sub $99 models sold unsubsidised and not on a data contract. It's gotten to the stage where we should be viewing marketshare as a measure of the total handset market, not the "smartphone market" which now is meaningless since it includes such low end devices.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 16:24:51 GMT -8
On that note: Attachments:
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Post by capablanca on Jan 3, 2013 17:15:03 GMT -8
Someone from Avi's trading group posted this morning: Sir John Templeton: "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria."
A wise aphorism to be sure. But I do recall that there was a lot of skepticism in early '08.
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Post by capablanca on Jan 3, 2013 17:49:12 GMT -8
I switched to Bloomberg today vs cnbc. no yelling so far! #goodbyeChickenLittle A quote from an analyst regarding CNBC: “Yesterday, on CNBC (CMCSA), I didn’t really want to do it,” Walkley says of a mid-December appearance on the network. “I had a buy on Apple, I’m positive, and they wanted to be real negative, and so it was like this confrontational interview. Negative news sells on Apple.” www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-03/apples-stock-analysts-price-targets-vary-wildly#p1This is my view, as well. I cut back on CNBC years ago and went cold turkey a few months ago. NBC itself has lacked credibility for years, and now that Comcast (CMCSA) owns a controlling interest, CNBC is the tool of a competitor.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 17:59:04 GMT -8
Listen y'all. These CNBC anchors have long training. Starting in the 70's and 80's, when broadcasters were starting to be younger, ... well, this is the true beginning of modern broadcasters. First, bulging eyes and deep concern for 2 sentence. "Now we turn your to John Clacken at the White House. John ?" "That's right, Brian. and that's the news from here." (all eyes to the camera... don't blink).
Since then, many technological improvements. Flashier graphics and more platinum blondes in the 1980's. This CNBC controversy would not be happening if not for every news show getting its info from "The Guiding Light" and bad manners from Sunday morning talk show Washington Week (I think).
And now a word from our sponsor.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 18:17:43 GMT -8
Ahhhh....you're killing me. Just remember - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 2013 will be a great year - 13 is my lucky number and I'm loving AAPL and you are invited to ride my coattails to the moon! I think the earnings will set the tone for the year for AAPL. There are some big risks with these earnings including: -limited availability of iPad Mini -questions around how much the Mini eats into normal iPad sales and how much this will affect margins and overall revenue -limited availability of new iMac models -many products at the beginning of their production cycle which means higher startup costs, lower margins -"normal" length quarter vs extra week quarter last year -physical limits on how many phones can actually be produced. I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many? I am sure there are some good points....anyone care to elaborate on what those could be? Solid iPhone 5 demand is one and what appears to be better production yields by mid-quarter. iPad Mini being a "hit" product (which is both good and bad as has been discussed.) Currently we are down about 3 bucks today It has never happened that way before. Earnings, as an indicator for the year, are only as good as guidance for the next quarter. Calendar 2012 is a great example of that.
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