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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 19:30:33 GMT -8
End of QE = Stronger US Dollar = less revenue for AAPL I can't remember the last time Cook, Oppenheimer or Wipfler ever blamed ForEx for unimpressive results - though ForEx is used as a sandbag excuse regularly. And burgess, don't forget currency hedging! They mentioned it as a factor two quarters ago, if I remember correctly. It was one of a number of factors dragging on earnings.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 19:37:21 GMT -8
I can't remember the last time Cook, Oppenheimer or Wipfler ever blamed ForEx for unimpressive results - though ForEx is used as a sandbag excuse regularly. And burgess, don't forget currency hedging! They mentioned it as a factor two quarters ago, if I remember correctly. It was one of a number of factors dragging on earnings. I thought there was something this past quarter related to hedging? That is why this quarter was guided so high on OI&E.
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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 19:38:41 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 19:42:53 GMT -8
They mentioned it as a factor two quarters ago, if I remember correctly. It was one of a number of factors dragging on earnings. I thought there was something this past quarter related to hedging? That is why this quarter was guided so high on OI&E. Yes, that's what I remember, but I didn't write a note about it. I did write a note that they mentioned the strengthening dollar had an "adverse impact."
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 19:51:32 GMT -8
The OI&E affected earnings by 21 cents last quarter. A one point drop in gross margin in change this quarter will be 44 cents. Sort of comparing oranges to apples.
"Adverse impact" is as clear as my lasagna sauce.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 19:56:53 GMT -8
HEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I *just now* spotted on the daily chart: WE HAVE THE FIRST SMIDGE OF A BULLISH CROSS!!!!!!!!!!! EMA-13 and SMA-20!!!!!!!!!!!!! Okay, it's still just a smidge, in its infancy...but in this relentless downtrend, that smidge has only been seen ONE time (that last bounce to 594). (Translation: bullish, cheer! )
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 20:12:09 GMT -8
Thanks prazan. Class clown here is often forgetful/mistaken. I'll also admit to glossing over the CC on that relatively lousy quarter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 20:16:24 GMT -8
Add: to what extent does the IPhone 6 rumors reduce demand for IPhone 5. "I mean some analysts are calling for 50 million iphones...geez is that even possible physically to produce that many?" I think we need at least 50 MM IPhones to have $13.50-$14.00 EPS, and more like 55-58MM for any upside surprise. I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. Lets do this one last time. THE 14th WEEK IS A MYTH. Yes, there was 14 weeks in the Dec qtr of 2011, BUT, and this is an important BUT, the iPhone 4S was only available for 11 weeks and 2 days (Oct 14 thru Dec 31). That means daily run rate was 468,350 handsets, not the 377,550 handset rate that the 14 week myth implies. Extrapolating the 2011 period of availability to the Dec qtr of 2012 yields 42,620,000 handset without increasing production capacity in 2012. Now consider that Apple had 9 days of RAMP in the Sept qtr that did not show as shipping in the Dec qtr, and that the iPhone 5 shipped to 8 more countries than did the iPhone 4S at launch, and sold 20 times faster (pre-orders) [Wikipedia], with worldwide smartphone share growth of 17%. That bit if sales data should be worth another fourteen days of sales. In total, comparing all aspects of the differences between iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 sales during the December quarter, it is more than reasonable (neglecting variances in iPhone demand), that the Dec qtr of 2012 generated 49,150,000 units sold. A modest increase in demand (<2%) easily achieves 50,000,000 iPhones sold during the Dec qtr 2012, and we haven't even addressed the impact of shipping to China in Dec 2012, vs iPhone 4S in January of 2012. In short, anybody that ISN'T thinking 50,000,000 iPhones in the Dec qtr of 2012, is selling themselves short. My FQ1/2013 iPhone estimate is 56,780,000.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 20:22:49 GMT -8
True, although that conservatism has been shrinking, perhaps not by design but by the reality of sales. Look, I would love 55 million or 60 million phones, I just don't think it is physically possible given the issues I have raised and the time available. Maybe they have way more production capacity than I am estimating and I am totally wrong, but I have to be prepared (for my own portfolio) that they don't. Appreciate the note of caution, it tempers the giddiness and would have been much appreciated on 9-21-12. We don't know the limits to production, other than what TC said at the 10-16-12 earnings call, that he was satisfied with the production rate. We also did not hear much of IPhone 5 constraints in December - we did in October and November - so it looks like supply caught up with demand. And I don't think AAPL would have gone through with the China roll-out if production issues were still happening in December. iPhone 4S Demand/Supply balance did not occur until the end of January (TC statement during April 2012 conference call).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 20:31:12 GMT -8
The Earnings Smackdown from CNN-Fortune's Philip-Elmer Dewitt is a key indicator -- if it appears this quarter. I believe it will any day now, even tho PED is on vacation. Discard some idiot numbers and the rest is Wall Street's consensus. Its a group-think process. Wall Street, Independents, ATT and VZ data. I expect the EPS whisper number to rise to near $ 13.80. I agree...the whisper number will eventually beat last year's actual results so that Apple continues to "grow"....(forget the 14th week effect, etc....that requires actual thinking). I see 51.4 million iphones, helped by all three domestic carriers having a "free" iphone this last quarter and by the incredibly fast rollout, highlighted by exceptional demand in not only China, but Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the rest of Asia....These are millions of phones.... Yay a thinker!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:31:35 GMT -8
Gregg, there was no form factor change and you still had a week of all other products. I just wish the guy in the middle of this group was someone I could call on. ;D He has the best record going back a long time. His loyalty is with the BB group and I respect that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 20:32:14 GMT -8
I can't remember the last time Cook, Oppenheimer or Wipfler ever blamed ForEx for unimpressive results - though ForEx is used as a sandbag excuse regularly. And burgess, don't forget currency hedging! They mentioned it as a factor two quarters ago, if I remember correctly. It was one of a number of factors dragging on earnings. Which WON'T happen this quarter.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:40:03 GMT -8
Which WON'T happen this quarter. Peter guided to 380 mil for OI&E and some of it was from last quarter. No it will not happen this quarter, Apple has said so.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 3, 2013 21:07:52 GMT -8
Seven pages of TA bullshit, and only one mention of pain. On a Thursday. You people do know that Travis Lewis' "Poor Man's Algo" is to buy Friday right before close or on Monday, and sell late Wednesday, right? Meanwhile, pain range is 535-539.99. I've been waiting for this OpEx dip to buy some goodies. IMO, last chance before earnings run-up.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2013 21:13:03 GMT -8
I agree...the whisper number will eventually beat last year's actual results so that Apple continues to "grow"....(forget the 14th week effect, etc....that requires actual thinking). I see 51.4 million iphones, helped by all three domestic carriers having a "free" iphone this last quarter and by the incredibly fast rollout, highlighted by exceptional demand in not only China, but Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the rest of Asia....These are millions of phones.... Yay a thinker! Who, me?
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 3, 2013 21:25:54 GMT -8
I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. Lets do this one last time. THE 14th WEEK IS A MYTH. Yes, there was 14 weeks in the Dec qtr of 2011, BUT, and this is an important BUT, the iPhone 4S was only available for 11 weeks and 2 days (Oct 14 thru Dec 31). That means daily run rate was 468,350 handsets, not the 377,550 handset rate that the 14 week myth implies. Extrapolating the 2011 period of availability to the Dec qtr of 2012 yields 42,620,000 handset without increasing production capacity in 2012. Now consider that Apple had 9 days of RAMP in the Sept qtr that did not show as shipping in the Dec qtr, and that the iPhone 5 shipped to 8 more countries than did the iPhone 4S at launch, and sold 20 times faster (pre-orders) [Wikipedia], with worldwide smartphone share growth of 17%. That bit if sales data should be worth another fourteen days of sales. In total, comparing all aspects of the differences between iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 sales during the December quarter, it is more than reasonable (neglecting variances in iPhone demand), that the Dec qtr of 2012 generated 49,150,000 units sold. A modest increase in demand (<2%) easily achieves 50,000,000 iPhones sold during the Dec qtr 2012, and we haven't even addressed the impact of shipping to China in Dec 2012, vs iPhone 4S in January of 2012. In short, anybody that ISN'T thinking 50,000,000 iPhones in the Dec qtr of 2012, is selling themselves short. My FQ1/2013 iPhone estimate is 56,780,000. Hey Gregg, nice post. I agree with you 100%. iPhone will save this quarter. I would even be willing to bet that iPhone sales will be higher than your 56,780,000 number. It's too bad that the iPad Mini was not 100% available last quarter. I considered buying my two sons a Mini for Christmas, but decided to buy them the Kindle Fire HD instead. It was available and cost about $129 less per unit. I still might return them for the Mini, but we might keep them too. The Kindle is a nice device, but in my opinion not as good as the Mini. I helped my mother-in-law buy Pad 4 last week. Price is no object for her, so she got the 64MB ATT version. It is a sweet unit. I love the speed and WIFI. And she bought an Apple cover for $49. I gotta say, that case is poor quality and must cost Apple less than $1. I returned it today. Apple can do much better than that. I am looking forward to an iPhone with a bigger screen. But I am not looking forward to different colors. The colors on the new iPods stink. I would not be surprised if iPod sales are very low this quarter due to price points and the color options. The family also bought a new 21" iMac. We ordered it December 10 and it arrived on the 24th. Again, I wish availability was better last quarter. But the unit is fantastic. Cheers
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 21:30:55 GMT -8
It's too bad that the iPad Mini was not 100% available last quarter. I considered buying my two sons a Mini for Christmas, but decided to buy them the Kindle Fire HD instead. I say we pull his toenails first then work our way up. ;D
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 21:39:03 GMT -8
I am looking forward to an iPhone with a bigger screen. But I am not looking forward to different colors. The colors on the new iPods stink. I would not be surprised if iPod sales are very low this quarter due to price points and the color options. I do think the screen needs to get a little bigger. The thumb thing is fine, but seldom necessary. We happen to like the colors of the ipods. ipods mean nothing to EPS.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 21:39:25 GMT -8
I just don't know if it's physically possible in the time available to produce, ship, and sell 50 million iPhones. I would say that is stretching it. Especially since until about mid-quarter there were most likely some issues with production of the (difficult to produce) iphone 5. I would probably say we are going to come in at 42-45 million iPhones. The most iPhones ever sold in a quarter is what, 37 million? And that quarter had an extra week and the phones available were already well into their production cycle. Lets do this one last time. THE 14th WEEK IS A MYTH. Yes, there was 14 weeks in the Dec qtr of 2011, BUT, and this is an important BUT, the iPhone 4S was only available for 11 weeks and 2 days (Oct 14 thru Dec 31). That means daily run rate was 468,350 handsets, not the 377,550 handset rate that the 14 week myth implies. Extrapolating the 2011 period of availability to the Dec qtr of 2012 yields 42,620,000 handset without increasing production capacity in 2012. Now consider that Apple had 9 days of RAMP in the Sept qtr that did not show as shipping in the Dec qtr, and that the iPhone 5 shipped to 8 more countries than did the iPhone 4S at launch, and sold 20 times faster (pre-orders) [Wikipedia], with worldwide smartphone share growth of 17%. That bit if sales data should be worth another fourteen days of sales. In total, comparing all aspects of the differences between iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 sales during the December quarter, it is more than reasonable (neglecting variances in iPhone demand), that the Dec qtr of 2012 generated 49,150,000 units sold. A modest increase in demand (<2%) easily achieves 50,000,000 iPhones sold during the Dec qtr 2012, and we haven't even addressed the impact of shipping to China in Dec 2012, vs iPhone 4S in January of 2012. In short, anybody that ISN'T thinking 50,000,000 iPhones in the Dec qtr of 2012, is selling themselves short. My FQ1/2013 iPhone estimate is 56,780,000. I'm glad you rejoined the board GT.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 21:45:23 GMT -8
Seven pages of TA bullshit, and only one mention of pain. On a Thursday. You people do know that Travis Lewis' "Poor Man's Algo" is to buy Friday right before close or on Monday, and sell late Wednesday, right? Meanwhile, pain range is 535-539.99. I've been waiting for this OpEx dip to buy some goodies. IMO, last chance before earnings run-up. ::cough:: Mr. Crankypants ::cough:: P.S. Seven pages of scintillating FA today.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 3, 2013 21:59:18 GMT -8
It's too bad that the iPad Mini was not 100% available last quarter. I considered buying my two sons a Mini for Christmas, but decided to buy them the Kindle Fire HD instead. I say we pull his toenails first then work our way up. ;D It killed me to buy the Fire! I have 10+ devices linked to my iTunes account. I am 100% invested in Apple. But part of me wanted to check out the competition.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 22:01:12 GMT -8
Seven pages of TA bullshit, and only one mention of pain. On a Thursday. You people do know that Travis Lewis' "Poor Man's Algo" is to buy Friday right before close or on Monday, and sell late Wednesday, right? Meanwhile, pain range is 535-539.99. I've been waiting for this OpEx dip to buy some goodies. IMO, last chance before earnings run-up. ::cough:: Mr. Crankypants ::cough:: P.S. Seven pages of scintillating FA today. Seriously, he shows up at the end of the day acting like a little (insert anything). ;D Edited because of the masters rules.
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Post by cambrose on Jan 3, 2013 22:09:22 GMT -8
I say we pull his toenails first then work our way up. ;D It killed me to buy the Fire! I have 10+ devices linked to my iTunes account. I am 100% invested in Apple. But part of me wanted to check out the competition. I made up for it. I ended up buying 7 minis for gifts and 1 for myself. Just got back from 2 weeks holidays in the US (Tennessee/Florida) and a south Caribbean cruise and definitely seeing a lot of Apple out there... especially in airports. Almost all iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks. A number of Kindles on the cruise but almost every other tablet was an iPad. Strangely enough, someone had a Surface at the Edmonton airport the day I left. Not the same thing in Canada. I take public transit and I'd have to say that I'm seeing about half and half Apple/Samsung. Didn't used to be that way. Samsung has definitely made some inroads. Assuming that people who travel are a little more affluent, it would seem to confirm that belief that those with money tend to buy Apple.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 22:09:42 GMT -8
I think - and you hit the nail on the head - that in this transition quarter we need to keep as close to actual guidance as we can. Absolutely correct. Lets do that. GUIDANCE............................ACTUAL Revenue $52,000,000,000......+22% or $63,200,000,000 GM%.......36.00%..................+3.60% or 39.60% Op Ex.....$4,050,000,000........+4.20% or $4,220,000,000 OI & E....$380,000.................+35.50% or $515,000 Tax Rate...26.00%.................-.40% or 25.65% EPS........$11.75....................+43% or $16.80 It doesn't matter. Whatever impact there will be is included in Management's Guidance. See above.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 22:27:16 GMT -8
Even though I think you are nuts with your estimate, I at least give you credit for putting your name on it. The AT&T number means nothing to you I guess.
$16.80, never gonna happen.
After looking at the last 2 quarters of Apple's guidance, I am cautious about this quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2013 22:31:04 GMT -8
Seven pages of TA bullshit, and only one mention of pain. On a Thursday. You people do know that Travis Lewis' "Poor Man's Algo" is to buy Friday right before close or on Monday, and sell late Wednesday, right? Meanwhile, pain range is 535-539.99. I've been waiting for this OpEx dip to buy some goodies. IMO, last chance before earnings run-up. Early today I got a strange sense of what I thought would happen with AAPL through tomorrow. Now to understand how strange this sense was, you have to appreciate just how pathologically optimistic I am about everything (with the sole exception of Congress' ability to do the right thing without consideration of what's in it for them). Any way, while trading between $548 and $549 I bought a small position (30 contracts) of Jan Wk1 $545/$550 Put Spreads at $2.38. Nothing could have been more out of character for me. Immediately thereafter AAPL went into a slide finishing down $6.93. I'm up 55% with only tomorrow to get through. Unless AAPL drops even more right out of the gate, I'll probably sell right away first thing in the morning. I'm feeling pretty giddy about this trade, as it is the second trade in a row since noticing P/C Ratio, whereby I have profited. Small victories before big victories.
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