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Post by highway2heel on Jan 4, 2013 12:11:08 GMT -8
This is like being punched in the face repeatedly...THEN being forced to apologize for getting blood on someone's clothes.
Reminds me of Clark Griswold at the craps table:
You don't know when to quit, do ya H2H?... Here's an idea: Why don't you give me half the money you were gonna put in AAPL, then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!
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Post by highway2heel on Jan 4, 2013 12:12:29 GMT -8
"I haven't taken a beating like this since someone put a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose..."
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Post by lance on Jan 4, 2013 12:16:55 GMT -8
Anyone from this site planning on going to the shareholder meeting? - The 2013 Annual Meeting of Shareholders will occur at Apple's 1 Infinite Loop headquarters on February 27, 2013 at 9AM. I have never gone, because I live Canada. Do you get to ask questions of executives such as what the hell is wrong with this stock?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 4, 2013 12:23:56 GMT -8
Exited my "brilliant" yet in hindsight ill-advised one day one contract Jan 4 530 "call"to glory play. ....with a loss...but not a total loss.....and I still have my head high....and I battled the Evil Overlords almost to a draw.....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 12:35:05 GMT -8
A little more colour on iPhone sale next quarter: 2:45 PM, Jan 04. A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. U.S. analyst Chris Whitmore thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) imply upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to his FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. Context is incredibly important to do the BS check. How many iPhones sold in Q2 2012? You may be puzzled by what you see.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 12:36:07 GMT -8
Exited my "brilliant" yet in hindsight ill-advised one day one contract Jan 4 530 "call"to glory play. ....with a loss...but not a total loss.....and I still have my head high....and I battled the Evil Overlords almost to a draw..... You have my sympathies though, Ensign. Live 'n learn! If it helps, I've got shorter-term stuff I'm sweating over too, just not as short-term as Jan 4.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 12:38:28 GMT -8
I think all the talk about the iPhone being refreshed every 6 months is incorrect, and the more the rumour/theory spreads the worse its going to be for apples iPhone sales.
The Chinese New Year (their massive gift buying season) is in mid-Feb, if the public perception is that we will see a new iPhone in Mar/Apr, then sales are going to be abysmal for Q2.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 12:43:00 GMT -8
Hmm, AAPL bouncing off of 530, wonder why that is. Watch it go over 530 in AH when all 530 calls are dead.
BTW, BOT 100 AAPL @ 529.50 (slept too late). Going to try for another 100 in AH.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 12:44:41 GMT -8
Really burgess?
You can do better than that. It's kind of hard to look forward to an unreleased iPhone when demand isn't even satisfied for the iPhone 5.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 12:47:52 GMT -8
If this is the best the bears can do, it could've been a lot worse.
Very frustrating trading, but net up for the week by 15 bucks or so. That's still a higher low on the weekly.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 4, 2013 12:49:36 GMT -8
Exited my "brilliant" yet in hindsight ill-advised one day one contract Jan 4 530 "call"to glory play. ....with a loss...but not a total loss.....and I still have my head high....and I battled the Evil Overlords almost to a draw..... not as brilliant as my 2 540 calls that i bought at the bell! 50% up in the first 30 seconds, yet now 99.9% down. woo woo woooo all aboard the WINNER TRAIN <-- THIS GUY just $250 but still. typical
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Post by joel90069 on Jan 4, 2013 12:50:53 GMT -8
Called it at 7:30(pst) this morning. Seemed obvious we'd close at or below 530 (typo in my original post). These Friday games are disgusting.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 12:52:21 GMT -8
BOT 100 AAPL 527.75
Nice last minute flush of call holders, BTW, EO's.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 12:52:51 GMT -8
Gap down with a green close would be very bullish. Let's see. Highest OI for calls is 550 (11K); second-highest is 540 (8K). Puts tied at 540 and 500 (6K). As close as possible to 540 would kill aforementioned calls and puts. Not going to happen. Lackluster jobs report on top of AAPL being over bought.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 4, 2013 12:52:59 GMT -8
Barring an incredible last ten minutes, AAPL has now finished down on three out of the last fifteen Fridays, the last six consecutively...
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Post by kloot on Jan 4, 2013 12:53:18 GMT -8
Positive (bullish divergence) all over the place in multiple timeframes. IMHO / WAG: buyable dip here. lovey, after the bell and the weekend "establishment" is online serving virtual drinks, can you elaborate on the divergences you saw/see? thanx!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 12:54:06 GMT -8
Called it at 7:30(pst) this morning. Seemed obvious we'd close at or below 530 (typo in my original post). These Friday games are disgusting. Not if you bought Puts, instead of Calls.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 4, 2013 13:00:04 GMT -8
so the S&P 500 can close at a 5 year high even with AAPL almost 3% down. Ain't that something.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 13:00:44 GMT -8
Blah. 527.02 to close. Could be worse.
terps, AAPL has returned to high-beta status, big time. Get used to it for now, and also, it's up for the week, just in a very uninspiring way.
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Post by highway2heel on Jan 4, 2013 13:01:58 GMT -8
Back where we were on Friday, November 16, 2012.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 13:12:37 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 13:12:50 GMT -8
Really burgess? You can do better than that. It's kind of hard to look forward to an unreleased iPhone when demand isn't even satisfied for the iPhone 5. Well it can't help. I'm already seeing headlines in mainstream media saying "Apple testing new iPhones!" Tim cook has said on conference calls in 2012 that widespread rumours of forthcoming products hurt sales in per-transition quarters. This is the first time I have seen rumours hit mainstream news outlets barely 3 months after the latest models release. Every man and his dog proclaiming apple is moving to a 6 month product release cycle is the LAST thing we need, especially when it's probably not true. At this stage it's pure FUD.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 4, 2013 13:21:23 GMT -8
What a bullshit day. So, the theory that weekly options end at max pain and monthlies slide to an extreme bites the dust. Thought I had found an edge there, but when you could really use it working, it lets you down.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 13:23:36 GMT -8
Can anyone tell me what we are going to see in a new iPhone in 2-3 months time?
We sure aren't going to see a finished fully beta tested iOS 7 by then. And I don't see the point of apple discarding the A6 after only 26 weeks, and dropping in a A7 chip. It takes a considerable amount of time/cash/effort to ramp up a fab plant capable of pumping out 10s of millions of CPUs a month, not to mention the R&D that goes into the design itself.
So if we aren't going to get a new iOS, a new chip, or a new industrial design - then what are we going to see worthy of even an 'S' upgrade?
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Post by macwire on Jan 4, 2013 13:25:38 GMT -8
Fuck this.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 13:30:21 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 4, 2013 13:32:44 GMT -8
Thanks JD. I really like the way that you see Apple's behavior as an opportunity rather than a conundrum. Have you been doing this? Did you get similar results?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 13:36:42 GMT -8
What a bullshit day. So, the theory that weekly options end at max pain and monthlies slide to an extreme bites the dust. Thought I had found an edge there, but when you could really use it working, it lets you down. The problem is that we don't know what the max pain was at midday. For the record, I absolutely, 100% expected a dip today. I was waiting for it. Bought 200 shares today on this expectation. Getting the exact strikes right every week is impossible, because pain is a moving target. But as far as a general guideline, it gives quite the edge. As mentioned in the articles I posted above, an AAPL trade that goes long Fri close/Mon open through Wed AM, and shorts AAPL Wed close through Friday close, or thereabouts, returned 107% last year (vs AAPL common roughly 26% YOY). Unfortunately, people here tend to be swing-for-the-fences types who want 5 baggers, not a "mere" 100% return. Try this "algo" for a year, in a small account, as Travis advises, and see what happens.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 4, 2013 13:38:56 GMT -8
Irritating. Irritating. Irritating.
Test, retest, retest again, retest some more. Blah! Just blah!
Below the daily SMA-20, but not decisively. Still above the daily SMA-10.
I'm going to rant some more in the technicals threads. And I need wine...
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Post by alice on Jan 4, 2013 13:38:59 GMT -8
If JAN13 ER is good or very good, how will Apple do come JAN14 ER? The iPhone can only do so much.
Wine is not enough any more. Need the hard stuff.
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