JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 13:49:33 GMT -8
Thanks JD. I really like the way that you see Apple's behavior as an opportunity rather than a conundrum. Have you been doing this? Did you get similar results? No, because I am a greedy, degenerate, $#!thead, like most people here. But this past quarter has made me see the light - I BOT my first purchase of (non-assigned/exercised) common in 20 years today. Nice, conservative, common shares (damn liberals!). I'm going for on base percentage, singles instead of home runs. I'm going all LEAPS on options. Nothing less than one year. I'm done trying to predict/time Apple's quarters, or the market's stupid reactions thereto. And yeah, I will try to have the discipline to trade the Poor Man's Algo for a year in some account. I am subscribing to Travis' service, if only to use him as a risk aversion sponsor like in AA. Even for those of you who beat Travis' return, I'll bet you have more gray hair (or less hair) for your troubles (no offense to any Starfleet officers). I will go for some "baggers," but with LEAPS, and a small percentage of the portfolio. I do think last week was a bottom, and I will be entering several longer-term positions soon. I missed out last week because I recently opened a new brokerage acct, and just got approved for options midweek (Schwab idiots). TradeMonster dicks doubled their margin rates! Believe it or not, Schwab is giving me 2%, which is almost the lowest of any brokerage. Edit: Oh, and 2012 lesson learned: Take profits when they come, follow Lovemyipad's exit rules, instead of waiting for 100% on expiration.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 13:52:41 GMT -8
If JAN13 ER is good or very good, how will Apple do come JAN14 ER? The iPhone can only do so much. Wine is not enough any more. Need the hard stuff. iPhone should still be able to comfortably grow 20-25% y-o-y in 2014. iPad and new product lines will grow faster.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 14:04:41 GMT -8
Gap down with a green close would be very bullish. Let's see. Highest OI for calls is 550 (11K); second-highest is 540 (8K). Puts tied at 540 and 500 (6K). As close as possible to 540 would kill aforementioned calls and puts. Not going to happen. Lackluster jobs report on top of AAPL being over bought. Words of wisdom 10 minutes before close. AAPL overbought, on what timeframe? seriously?
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Post by terps530 on Jan 4, 2013 14:12:20 GMT -8
As mentioned in the articles I posted above, an AAPL trade that goes long Fri close/Mon open through Wed AM, and shorts AAPL Wed close through Friday close, or thereabouts, returned 107% last year (vs AAPL common roughly 26% YOY). Unfortunately, people here tend to be swing-for-the-fences types who want 5 baggers, not a "mere" 100% return. Try this "algo" for a year, in a small account, as Travis advises, and see what happens. Similarly, one could 'make a bet' that Apple doesn't end up negative on the year, and double their money on that bet. Would you take that bet or offer it? I surely would take that bet. Well then, grab a January 2014 510/515 call spread right now, not touch it, and make that same ~107% in one year, as long as Apple doesn't go negative for 2013. Seems crazy that these 'bets' are offered with the premiums that are out there, but they are betting that our emotion takes over, and we wouldn't be able to just settle for just that measly 107%. Edit: Heck- just reading what I wrote tempts me to get rid of all my current positions and go all in on the above. Have a pleasant year with no day-to-day stress from this stuff, and piss my broker off for not giving them $1000's in day trading commissions lol. Sadly I don't think I have the guts to do that, nor do I want to do it because I'd be bored. What a nutty feeling.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 4, 2013 14:28:25 GMT -8
If any one is interested I did a statistical analysis on apple's trading pattern since the inclusion of weekly options. According to this analysis it did make a statistical significant in terms of weekly trading pattern. PM if you want to look over paper. Hoping I can make it my graduation paper for this spring semester.
Unfortunately. I did not Implement this strategy myself...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2013 14:36:12 GMT -8
Back to where we were on February 27, 2012.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2013 14:37:14 GMT -8
As mentioned in the articles I posted above, an AAPL trade that goes long Fri close/Mon open through Wed AM, and shorts AAPL Wed close through Friday close, or thereabouts, returned 107% last year (vs AAPL common roughly 26% YOY). Unfortunately, people here tend to be swing-for-the-fences types who want 5 baggers, not a "mere" 100% return. Try this "algo" for a year, in a small account, as Travis advises, and see what happens. Similarly, one could 'make a bet' that Apple doesn't end up negative on the year, and double their money on that bet. Would you take that bet or offer it? I surely would take that bet. Well then, grab a January 2014 510/515 call spread right now, not touch it, and make that same ~107% in one year, as long as Apple doesn't go negative for 2013. Seems crazy that these 'bets' are offered with the premiums that are out there, but they are betting that our emotion takes over, and we wouldn't be able to just settle for just that measly 107%. Edit: Heck- just reading what I wrote tempts me to get rid of all my current positions and go all in on the above. Have a pleasant year with no day-to-day stress from this stuff, and piss my broker off for not giving them $1000's in day trading commissions lol. Sadly I don't think I have the guts to do that, nor do I want to do it because I'd be bored. What a nutty feeling. Keep in mind Travis picks trades with very low risk. You could always be more aggressive in your strikes with his long/short weekly algo. But the whole point is to increase alpha, not beta. And funny, I was just telling my acct consultant in the last hour that I was planning on making less trades this year, as I was trying to chisel my way out of Level II quotes charges. Oh, and I got margin down to 1.75%. Not bad, when their standard rate is 5.75%.
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Post by stevereel on Jan 4, 2013 14:37:50 GMT -8
An elegantly simple summary of how many of us are feeling. Took the words right out of my mouth.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Jan 4, 2013 14:42:50 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 15:35:20 GMT -8
That's about when I did. Then the Pre-market started and everything went to crap :-)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 16:01:07 GMT -8
As mentioned in the articles I posted above, an AAPL trade that goes long Fri close/Mon open through Wed AM, and shorts AAPL Wed close through Friday close, or thereabouts, returned 107% last year (vs AAPL common roughly 26% YOY). Unfortunately, people here tend to be swing-for-the-fences types who want 5 baggers, not a "mere" 100% return. Try this "algo" for a year, in a small account, as Travis advises, and see what happens. Similarly, one could 'make a bet' that Apple doesn't end up negative on the year, and double their money on that bet. Would you take that bet or offer it? I surely would take that bet. Well then, grab a January 2014 510/515 call spread right now, not touch it, and make that same ~107% in one year, as long as Apple doesn't go negative for 2013. Seems crazy that these 'bets' are offered with the premiums that are out there, but they are betting that our emotion takes over, and we wouldn't be able to just settle for just that measly 107%. Edit: Heck- just reading what I wrote tempts me to get rid of all my current positions and go all in on the above. Have a pleasant year with no day-to-day stress from this stuff, and piss my broker off for not giving them $1000's in day trading commissions lol. Sadly I don't think I have the guts to do that, nor do I want to do it because I'd be bored. What a nutty feeling. Or you could go for broke with Jan 15 990/1000 call spreads for a 1438% return.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 4, 2013 16:53:44 GMT -8
Or you could go for broke with Jan 15 990/1000 call spreads for a 1438% return. I have JAN'15 1000/1030s. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 16:56:56 GMT -8
What is WRONG with you I mean good luck, totally See, not only do I not have the analytic tools (well maybe I do, I should check with my broker ), I just don't have the brainpower to process the amount of upside AAPL would need in order for those Jan 15s to start paying off so I could start _selling_ 'em off. What do you need and when?!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 16:57:03 GMT -8
If JAN13 ER is good or very good, how will Apple do come JAN14 ER? The iPhone can only do so much. Wine is not enough any more. Need the hard stuff. All current earnings reports are telling you, is whether the Company did what it said it was going to do. The most valuable statement of expectations comes from management's own guidance (nobody has a clearer view of what is anticipated). Analyst estimates are nothing more than third party statements of expectations, and we've seen how widely they vary (enough so as to be worthless). Some extrapolate out a year, but none have a clue as to the state of the world economy, product evolution/revolution, or the quality of the competition over that time period. Case in point: neither Nokia, RIMM, Motorola, HTC, Palm, Sony/Ericcson or MSFT (among many others) saw how their worlds were going to be turned upside down between 2007 and 2008. You can plan for a year out, but that doesn't mean you KNOW what is going to happen.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 17:00:41 GMT -8
Hey...Jan 15 900/1000s? Maybe I'll try those for fun in small amounts...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 17:05:35 GMT -8
I think all the talk about the iPhone being refreshed every 6 months is incorrect, /quote] I don't think it matters. Contract customers really don't bust them just to get the latest/greatest, and the prepaid crowd need time to save up for new one. Moving a buying decision a month one way or the other results in the decision being made in the same quarter 2 of 3 months. Dwelling on this is a colossal waste of time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 17:14:14 GMT -8
No, not if you think of it in iPad mini-like terms.
It's just incredibly hard to see yet another iPhone in the lineup...right now. But there are things Apple can do longer-term that could make sense and keep manufacturing and overall iPhone demand more stable. Maybe Apple will get a chance to do a smaller iPhone with no Home button on the front face!
Wouldn't count on it for at least a year though.
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