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Post by silkstone on Oct 25, 2019 6:53:22 GMT -8
I’ll attempt to open the Friday thread since everyone is preoccupied. I’m not sure how to attach news articles so I’ll ask the question: With some politicians threatening to bepreak up big tech companies, how might this look for Apple and how would it affect shareholders ? Maybe a three division of hardware, services, App Store ? What about possible share price for each ? Anyway, I don’t think this will happen but who knows.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 25, 2019 7:10:22 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2019 7:12:29 GMT -8
Thanks for opening the thread. It's good to have help doing that, and just because some great people have managed to consistently put together links to many articles each day, doesn't mean it needs to always be that way.
Even though Apple has a huge market cap, I don't think it's of the size to break up, especially since back with Microsoft they didn't get broken up while there was an obvious line of OS vs everything else that could have been made.
But I thought about Amazon yesterday, and what a strange mixture it is, mainly in terms of "how do you valuate this". I believe their P/E yesterday, at the end of the day but before the after-hours drop, was 83!
They're mainly a retailer. An online one, without the bricks-n-mortar or salesperson costs, but still the valuation on that should be low. Then they have some hardware, some being boring (tablets) and others being "new and exciting" (Alexa in a variety of things, smart speakers, doorbell cams, online thermostat). Some of that is the sexy new stuff that people like to valuate higher. There's software, at least a little, though Alexa somewhat falls into this. There's shipping, which is different enough from retailing. And there's the cloud, which is also the sexy new stuff with high valuations.
There are lots of parts there that could be split up if the government decided it was using it's size in a bad way. But a P/E of 83!
There are some times where I think Apple should be split up and rebranded, just to get the cumulative P/E higher. There's too much baggage built into the P/E. OTOH, there's a lot less risk, since AAPL has already come down to much more reasonable levels. This near 21 level was just touched last year and before that not seen in a decade. In a way it's a scary-new level. In others, it's well justified, and a bump up a few points from here would be expected as Apple branches out and has lots of income and earnings feeders.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 25, 2019 7:19:45 GMT -8
I’ll attempt to open the Friday thread since everyone is preoccupied. I’m not sure how to attach news articles so I’ll ask the question: With some politicians threatening to bepreak up big tech companies, how might this look for Apple and how would it affect shareholders ? Maybe a three division of hardware, services, App Store ? What about possible share price for each ? Anyway, I don’t think this will happen but who knows.
first and foremost, apple is relatively far down the line in the list of targets! facebook is pretty clearly the initial focus, followed by amazon and google... that's a lot of action, and whoever might go after them might try to concentrate the bet to increase the odds of success
second, i don't think full breakups like urged by warren gonna happen either... there will be a big fight put up, and whatever actions would be watered-down... and it might just look at microsoft in the 90s; it was a clear and sole monopolist, and they pretty much remained intact... like no one spun office away from windows (and MSFT stock doing very well today at $1T market cap along with apple!)
third, spinoffs might actually beneficial for the stocks! look at AMZN today... market starting to demand profits and margins... but what if aws is spun off from retail? you get like a walmart and a microsoft... i don't think it would be beneficial for apple because of tight integration of hardware, software and app store... but again, don't think it will happen to apple
in any case, i think it's a 2021 risk, not a 2019 risk... so much more low-hanging risk fruit: trade war, macro recession, china slowdown, us slowdown, brexit, fed, negative interest rates, smartphone saturation... you know the drill
...
as i type this, AAPL just cleared $245... beast mode resumed! 👹 cheers to the longs!
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coma
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Post by coma on Oct 25, 2019 7:29:56 GMT -8
Artman must be sleep at the switch.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 25, 2019 7:55:57 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $246.72 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at the close.......
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Post by plcm123 on Oct 25, 2019 8:00:23 GMT -8
Hehe... fox guarding the hen house, unbelievable.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2019 8:42:20 GMT -8
Hehe... fox guarding the hen house, unbelievable. Well, technically, Congress is supposed to be the one guarding the henhouse, but insider trading rules don't apply to congrescritters. So, once again, the private sector is actually more accountable than those angels in DC. Call sitch today:
Of course, with earnings next week, the pin might not be as binding...
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2019 9:11:46 GMT -8
Wow, that's early. But Sam's Club has their fall daily sale pretty soon, and over the past 5 years many retailers have bumped up their early action, with the mindset that there's only so much spending in each person's pot, so the earlier the retailer can grab it, the better. Likewise on the early side, Mt Rose opened up today. For the past few years it has been the first ski resort to open up (in North America? Continental US?), often followed closely by Boreal. I haven't been there in about 25 years, though I had a rainbow Apple logo on by board when I did. That's as close as I can get to an Apple tie-in, unless you count that the actual winter season is coming, along with the Christmas push. It will be here before we know it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2019 10:15:59 GMT -8
Quick antitrust primer. First off, being a monopoly isn't illegal. How a company gets a monopoly, and how it behaves once it has a monopoly, may be illegal. Microsoft wasn't investigated in the 90's for being a monopoly. It was charged for illegal tying of Internet Explorer to its OS monopoly, inter alia. If you have a monopoly in hot dogs, you can't sell them in a package with buns to try to get a bun monopoly. Antitrust regulators also look to damages to the market, and IE utterly destroyed the browser market. Netscape Navigator went from 95% to like 5% once Windows 98 bundled IE. BTW, MS almost did get broken up! The judge was considering it! But when Bush won in 2000 his DOJ backed off. If Gore had won, MS might be two different companies today. Typically Republican admins are less draconian about antitrust, BUT some of these tech companies today (especially Facebook, run by that weird robot Zuckerberg) have managed to piss everyone off (thankfully, Tim Cook has managed to navigate these waters very well so far). Monopolies have nothing to do with the size of a company or its market cap. It's about the relevant share of a market. The big question is then, "what is the relevant market?" Cellphones? Smartphones? High end smartphones? Who knows? In Amazon's case, is it retail or just online retail? World or US? Amazon has a decent US online share (<50%), but a much small overall retail share and even smaller worldwide share. Since we haven't had a modern tech case, it's unclear to me whether the DOJ and FTC will look at US or world shares for tech monopolies. And there is no clear cut percentage as to what constitutes a monopoly, but it is typically at least 50%, but usually higher (60-70%). Facebook strangely has a larger worldwide share than US (about 75% world and 50% US). Google is like 93% worldwide and 88% US, so absolutely a monopoly (but remember, not illegal per se). I think FB and Google are clearly monopolies (social media and search), but I dispute Amazon is, depending on which market, and IMO Apple is definitely not. Apple has ~40% US share but like a <20% share worldwide. The question regulators really seem to be nibbling at is the App Store. This notion just drives me crazy; Walmart and Target have no obligation to sell products they choose not to sell in their stores, so why should Apple? Amazon makes this a little trickier because the clear majority of their sales come from Marketplace items (not sold by Amazon). The scary thing is, what if a nutty DOJ in a future administration considers the iOS platform its own market? (there being only two real platforms, iOS and Android). If so, that would suck. This is why Apple having a good relationship with the president, whoever that might be, is yuge. But, looking at the effects on the app market, the App Store has actually been super awesome for developers, who before the App Store had virtually zero market and had to basically work for a software company or not work at all. One thing is clear: It's always good from an antitrust standpoint to have competitors, so don't root for Samsung phones to totally fail. Apple taking 95% of the smartphone profits will do, regardless of actual market share of units sold (lets hope profits are never looked at for market share!!). to the longs.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2019 10:19:22 GMT -8
Always nice to wake up to a new ATH. Looks like seemingly ever-increasing price targets and earnings report anticipation have folks excited. Thanks chinacat for all that you do here! It takes a lot of effort to consistently come up with a list of vetted articles on Apple and AAPL. I've tried a few times when others were away, and even though I may read a lot of articles it's tough to do first thing in the morning, at least in Pacific Time. I merged the 2 daily threads this morning, giving preference to the first in rather than the one with the most content. As I have said in private, this was in no way a slight on you or all of your help, but rather an attempt to follow a consistent and predictable method, like FIFO. Again, thanks for all that you do around here. All of our efforts, together, make this board what it is. Aaron
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Oct 25, 2019 12:03:43 GMT -8
today's close is $246.58
today's intraday high is $246.72
that deserves a big Holy SH*T Batman!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 25, 2019 12:09:48 GMT -8
Quick antitrust primer. First off, being a monopoly isn't illegal. How a company gets a monopoly, and how it behaves once it has a monopoly, may be illegal. Microsoft wasn't investigated in the 90's for being a monopoly. It was charged for illegal tying of Internet Explorer to its OS monopoly, inter alia. If you have a monopoly in hot dogs, you can't sell them in a package with buns to try to get a bun monopoly. Antitrust regulators also look to damages to the market, and IE utterly destroyed the browser market. Netscape Navigator went from 95% to like 5% once Windows 98 bundled IE. BTW, MS almost did get broken up! The judge was considering it! But when Bush won in 2000 his DOJ backed off. If Gore had won, MS might be two different companies today. Typically Republican admins are less draconian about antitrust, BUT some of these tech companies today (especially Facebook, run by that weird robot Zuckerberg) have managed to piss everyone off (thankfully, Tim Cook has managed to navigate these waters very well so far). Monopolies have nothing to do with the size of a company or its market cap. It's about the relevant share of a market. The big question is then, "what is the relevant market?" Cellphones? Smartphones? High end smartphones? Who knows? In Amazon's case, is it retail or just online retail? World or US? Amazon has a decent US online share (<50%), but a much small overall retail share and even smaller worldwide share. Since we haven't had a modern tech case, it's unclear to me whether the DOJ and FTC will look at US or world shares for tech monopolies. And there is no clear cut percentage as to what constitutes a monopoly, but it is typically at least 50%, but usually higher (60-70%). Facebook strangely has a larger worldwide share than US (about 75% world and 50% US). Google is like 93% worldwide and 88% US, so absolutely a monopoly (but remember, not illegal per se). I think FB and Google are clearly monopolies (social media and search), but I dispute Amazon is, depending on which market, and IMO Apple is definitely not. Apple has ~40% US share but like a <20% share worldwide. The question regulators are really seem to be nibbling at is the App Store. This notion just drives me crazy; Walmart and Target have no obligation to sell products they choose not to sell in their stores, so why should Apple? Amazon makes this a little trickier because the clear majority of their sales come from Marketplace items (not sold by Amazon). The scary thing is, what if a nutty DOJ in a future administration considers the iOS platform its own market? (there being only two real platforms, iOS and Android). If so, that would suck. This is why Apple having a good relationship with the president, whoever that might be, is yuge. But, looking at the effects on the app market, the App Store has actually been super awesome for developers, who before the App Store had virtually zero market and had to basically work for a software company or not work at all.
One thing is clear: It's always good from an antitrust standpoint to have competitors, so don't root for Samsung phones to totally fail. Apple taking 95% of the smartphone profits will do, regardless of actual market share of units sold (lets hope profits are never looked at for market share!!). to the longs.
this is really good... more like this please!
100% agree with the last statement
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Oct 25, 2019 12:16:51 GMT -8
today's close is $246.58today's intraday high is $246.72that deserves a big Holy SH*T Batman! AAPL closed +1.23%... up 3x the s&p500 index (+0.41%) what a beast! 👹
that last leg up breaking thru $246 in the last 10 min was a thing of beauty... 🍏 ❤️
now it's within spitting distance of $250 before earnings!
it's been a great week, cheers to the longs!
edit to add: wheeeeeeeeeee!
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Post by plcm123 on Oct 25, 2019 12:25:33 GMT -8
Yea! AAPL market cap finally passes $1.1T :-)
Thanks to Chinacat and to all those who have been participated in making this an enjoyable site to read and discuss.
Keep it clean please, we're all civilized beings and intelligent and there's no need for offensive remarks, the whole world is much better this way.
Thank you, have a great weekend and enjoy looking at AAPL current share price, hope to read some good stuff on the weekend also.
Cheers to the long!
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 25, 2019 12:46:43 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$246.72All Time Highest TODAY intraday 15,823,445 shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$246.58aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.116 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.12 TRILLION 10/03/2018 +$1.116 TRILLION
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Oct 25, 2019 12:47:47 GMT -8
Always nice to wake up to a new ATH. Looks like seemingly ever-increasing price targets and earnings report anticipation have folks excited. Thanks chinacat for all that you do here! It takes a lot of effort to consistently come up with a list of vetted articles on Apple and AAPL. I've tried a few times when others were away, and even though I may read a lot of articles it's tough to do first thing in the morning, at least in Pacific Time. I merged the 2 daily threads this morning, giving preference to the first in rather than the one with the most content. As I have said in private, this was in no way a slight on you or all of your help, but rather an attempt to follow a consistent and predictable method, like FIFO. Again, thanks for all that you do around here. All of our efforts, together, make this board what it is. Aaron Thank you for your kind words. Any effort I expend here is meant to be repayment for the knowledge I gained and kindness I have received from the many AFB stalwarts through the years such as lovemyipad, luckychoices and yourself. Even those with whom I may disagree often provide insights or knowledge which I may have otherwise missed. Let us all revel in the current string of ATH milestones and continue to appreciate all of the benefits that Steve Jobs, Tim Cook and all of the great team at Apple have provided to us.
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Post by nwjade on Oct 25, 2019 13:23:46 GMT -8
Thanks chinacat for all that you do here! It takes a lot of effort to consistently come up with a list of vetted articles on Apple and AAPL. I've tried a few times when others were away, and even though I may read a lot of articles it's tough to do first thing in the morning, at least in Pacific Time. I merged the 2 daily threads this morning, giving preference to the first in rather than the one with the most content. As I have said in private, this was in no way a slight on you or all of your help, but rather an attempt to follow a consistent and predictable method, like FIFO. Again, thanks for all that you do around here. All of our efforts, together, make this board what it is. Aaron Thank you for your kind words. Any effort I expend here is meant to be repayment for the knowledge I gained and kindness I have received from the many AFB stalwarts through the years such as lovemyipad, luckychoices and yourself. Even those with whom I may disagree often provide insights or knowledge which I may have otherwise missed. Let us all revel in the current string of ATH milestones and continue to appreciate all of the benefits that Steve Jobs, Tim Cook and all of great team at Apple have provided to us.I'm sure all the hard working Apple employees are feeling pretty darn good with how sentiment has changed over the last couple of weeks. It's well deserved and I'm really happy for them!!!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2019 16:23:29 GMT -8
Relevant! All kidding and trolling aside, I've had and have some major disagreements with Tim Cook, but I really do think Tim has done a great job vis-a-vis handling Washington at a time where Big Tech is as popular as Ebola. He and DJT are obviously not natural allies, but I think Trump likes him personally better than Obama liked Steve. And I think all of tech and corporate America and the investor class probably owe Tim for lobbying behind the scenes to get that overseas tax cut. And honestly I think it shows how Zuckerberg is really hurting his company just being a creepy weird robot. And don't even get me started on Bezos.
Excited by the AAPL action, but, not to be a buzzkill, Wednesday is yet another D-Day, so cautiously optimistic.
One Big Beat (and Guidance) and we're off to the races.
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Post by nwjade on Oct 25, 2019 17:05:11 GMT -8
Relevant! All kidding and trolling aside, I've had and have some major disagreements with Tim Cook, but I really do think Tim has done a great job vis-a-vis handling Washington at a time where Big Tech is as popular as Ebola. He and DJT are obviously not natural allies, but I think Trump likes him personally better than Obama liked Steve. And I think all of tech and corporate America and the investor class probably owe Tim for lobbying behind the scenes to get that overseas tax cut. And honestly I think it shows how Zuckerberg is really hurting his company just being a creepy weird robot. And don't even get me started on Bezos. Excited by the AAPL action, but, not to be a buzzkill, Wednesday is yet another D-Day, so cautiously optimistic. One Big Beat (and Guidance) and we're off to the races. Looks like the market may continue in rally mode Monday if Microsoft (up 3% after hours) has anything to do with it: Microsoft snags hotly contested $10 billion defense contract, beating out Amazon www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/microsoft-wins-major-defense-cloud-contract-beating-out-amazon.html
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Post by hledgard on Oct 26, 2019 5:19:17 GMT -8
JD's post (above) on anti-trust -- SUPERB !
Thanks !
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