It's tough watching the short term too much, and starting to get too hyped up. While my plan was to sell off a little bit more pre-earnings, I was starting to get swayed by the 20% a year idea, that unlike the past few years AAPL would just start climbing largely and steadily, getting up to that MSFT multiple. Because why not?
FWIW, one option is options. Taking a quick look yesterday, a Jan 2021 call at 280 was around $15, and 300 a touch over $10. Selling covered calls, that would be aiming at a total return in a little under 15 months capped at a 15-20% annualized rate, while getting a decent chunk of change upfront, worth something around 3-4 times the dividend. It's a possibility, if mainly planning on holding at these levels, but open to the possibility of selling at a higher price. You'd miss out if AAPL suddenly went hugely vertical, and you'd still have a paper hit if the stock fell, unless you used the cash to buy protection.
Anyways, just a thought, 20 hours later, on a day with AAPL down nearly $5 (though RSI dropped to 68, and P/E back to sub-21).
Lol, what did our results leak a day early? I suspect folks are just lightening up ahead of the big run we had leading up to earnings tomorrow.
i had a limit sell order ahead of the open, which thankfully executed on that first tiny shot up above $249 (fin sites report $249.75 high print, but it was more like $249.50)... i got lucky, but luck favors the prepared 😇
this one followed several other trims over the past 2 weeks of new highs...
i would def. not complain if AAPL beats and goes to 255 or higher after earnings, but i'm prepared for it to revisit 225 too
BlueHerring used to say that to get volume up, sometimes the price had to go down. Thus if a big player wanted to buy, the price would go down instead of up.
It seems counterintuitive, and could very well be one of those conspiracy theory type things. OTOH, volume averaged to about 17M a day last week, with ~22M yesterday, but 26M so far today, and a 30 day average of 28.5M. With the RSI so high on a speculation of great earnings/guidance, and no actual news until after trading on Wednesday, it was ripe for a fall, which does tend to kick up volume.
It's not all bad. AAPL tends to do better post-earnings on good news if it's not already at the top. IMO it's more likely to hit something like $255 late this week or early next if decent earnings/guidance come out if it's backed off a little, than if it was still pushing ATH boundaries all the way into earnings.
To Infinity, or at least $255, and Beyond!
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Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5