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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 31, 2019 5:42:41 GMT -8
Well, well, well... Here we are, the day after earnings, and boy, do we feel good that Apple didn't drop the ball in any category! Yes, guidance could've been better. Although in line with expectations, I'm sure there were many who wanted to see the number '90' in there. Futures were red due to a report that China isn't confident that it can strike a 'long-term' trade deal with Trump. But it seems like the market is shrugging off that news. As of now, that is. After hanging in there around 247 in pre-market, AAPL dwindled a bit at the very open and went down to 245.90 but the smart people out there seem to be coming in slowly and steadily. It's at 249.10 as I write this. ** LINKS OF THE DAY **ANALYSTS & UPGRADES:PED has The Best and The Worst Analystsand What The Analysts Are SayingEARNINGS & EARNINGS CALL:The Street has Apple's Impressive Quarter: Here's What Jumped Out the Most9to5mac has Apple Card adding '0% for 24 months' financing for iPhone purchasesTC said Apple Pay transactions growing 4x as fast as PayPal. That's great for the eco-system but does it even move the eps needle, we'll never know. TC talks about Arcade and TV+TC thinks AirPods Pro are complementary to AirPods, not replacements. This is interesting. Unless you already have an Airpod and want to upgrade, you'd buy the Pro and now you'll have both. Otherwise, if you're a first-time buyer, I think it'll be either/or. Very glad that TC sees 'lots of positives' and significant profits in ChinaFUTURE PRODUCTS:The 16" MBP is all but confirmedand 'AirTag' is nearing an official launch
It's 9:45 AM and AAPL is holding up strong around 247 while the rest of the market is weak. Time to make money!
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 31, 2019 6:09:47 GMT -8
Props to Sponge for predicting that we may not see $228 again....let’s hope he’s right! 😂
Cheers to AAPL longs and to Tim Apple and Co. while they go to work toward $300.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 6:19:27 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 31, 2019 6:41:03 GMT -8
4,745,398,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 26, 2018. here
84,528,000 share reduction 4,715,280,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 18, 2019 here30,118,000 share reduction 4,601,075,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of April 22, 2019 here114,205,000 share reduction 4,519,180,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of July 19, 2019. HERE81,895,000 share reduction 4,443,265,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 18, 2019. 10-K75,915,000 share reduction AS ALWAYS, PLEASE CHECK MY MATH
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 31, 2019 6:59:56 GMT -8
At this rate of buybacks, Apple's outstanding shares in a year or so might possibly be under 4 bln.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 7:39:25 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 31, 2019 8:57:38 GMT -8
I'm curious what GS pays Rod Hall, and by what metrics they evaluate his performance.
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Post by elmar on Oct 31, 2019 9:04:10 GMT -8
I'm curious what GS pays Rod Hall, and by what metrics they evaluate his performance. Perhaps by how cheap they can buy AAPL? I would not be surprised.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 10:15:29 GMT -8
I've been thinking about the coming ATV offerings. My take is that, up until now, people have been underwhelmed about the paucity of offerings, and hence the hype is pretty subdued. For me, its more about the quality. I'm finding the vast majority of Netflix's new original content to be mediocre to insulting, and think this is going to come back to haunt them if they continue down this road - I'm not a fan of quantity over quality. I mentioned this to a friend and she opined that the masses will watch most anything so long as they can binge on it. I momentarily acquiesced, but then thought, what are the masses actually obsessing about and what shows reach must-watch notoriety? My take is that its usually the best and most novel offerings available at the time. If this is true, and Apple comes through on screen with the same levels of quality, vision and artistry as they do with their products (yet to be seen), then people are going to rave about these shows/movies and they will become cult classics. I doubt people will mind shelling out the paltry subscription fees to check them out. Then its just a matter of scaling up.... Based on history and trailers, I think their chances are excellent, and then voila, major entry into another big industry with incredible returns.
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Post by duckpins on Oct 31, 2019 10:42:16 GMT -8
Agree that plenty of Netflix stuff is unwatchable. But surprisingly some people find stuff I find so as good...like Black Mirror which is just a millennial twilight zone with worse imagination and writing. Yet it has massive fans. The problem is there is no accounting for taste. Ozark is outstanding. 100 was Lost reprised as sci fi. etc.. Apple should have buying up all the old films. That is what is missing from Netflicks. You can't watch My Man Godfrey or To Be or Not To Be.Both missed the boat there.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 10:42:39 GMT -8
My take is that its usually the best and most novel offerings available at the time. If this is true, and Apple comes through on screen with the same levels of quality, vision and artistry as they do with their products (yet to be seen), then people are going to rave about these shows/movies and they will become cult classics. I doubt people will mind shelling out the paltry subscription fees to check them out. Then its just a matter of scaling up.... Based on history and trailers, I think their chances are excellent, and then voila, major entry into another big industry with incredible returns. We'll see. Thus far, none of the trailers I have seen have really grabbed me, nor have most of the articles/descriptions. I would certainly not be motivated to give up our HBO subscription for Apple TV, and as it is we TiVo more things than we have time to watch. Part of the problem may also be that I am a dedicated sports fan, and the Boston sports teams have been successful enough lately that they consume a good part of my viewing time. As it is, our Netflix subscription is probably underused, and they certainly have a much wider stable of offerings currently, including movies (for which I rarely go to a theater). Now don't get me wrong. As an investor I certainly hope that Apple TV becomes a solid contributor to the bottom line, if only by attracting a new non- or semi-technical audience who are not as involved in the technical side of Apple as I am. It also remains to be seen how long Apple will maintain what may very well be loss-leader pricing as an incentive for people to check it out.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 11:26:07 GMT -8
My take is that its usually the best and most novel offerings available at the time. If this is true, and Apple comes through on screen with the same levels of quality, vision and artistry as they do with their products (yet to be seen), then people are going to rave about these shows/movies and they will become cult classics. I doubt people will mind shelling out the paltry subscription fees to check them out. Then its just a matter of scaling up.... Based on history and trailers, I think their chances are excellent, and then voila, major entry into another big industry with incredible returns. We'll see. Thus far, none of the trailers I have seen have really grabbed me, nor have most of the articles/descriptions. I would certainly not be motivated to give up our HBO subscription for Apple TV, and as it is we TiVo more things than we have time to watch. Part of the problem may also be that I am a dedicated sports fan, and the Boston sports teams have been successful enough lately that they consume a good part of my viewing time. As it is, our Netflix subscription is probably underused, and they certainly have a much wider stable of offerings currently, including movies (for which I rarely go to a theater). Now don't get me wrong. As an investor I certainly hope that Apple TV becomes a solid contributor to the bottom line, if only by attracting a new non- or semi-technical audience who are not as involved in the technical side of Apple as I am. It also remains to be seen how long Apple will maintain what may very well be loss-leader pricing as an incentive for people to check it out. Ya, I decided to post that partially based on your initial cool reaction to it. I suspect you wouldn't be the primary target, especially since you aren't drawn to Netflix (though are still paying for it). As Duckpins says, they may just need a few viral starters to get people on board.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 31, 2019 11:43:24 GMT -8
I am also skeptical about Apple’s TV venture. Maybe 1% of the stuff, not just on Netflix, but on TV itself, is worth a damn.
I hope we can all agree that buying Netflix would have been idiocy. Might as well buy Enron and resell energy to California.
If you’re going to buy, buy a content creation company, not a reseller playing at content creation. And that’s what Apple is doing, playing. If some company tried to compete with the iPhone part time, we’d laugh at them. But Apple can take on the studios as a hobby?
Shoulda bot Disney. 🤷🏻♂️
Anyway, Apple prints billions, so not like they’ll run out of money to spend on content like Netflix does. But I’d rather have those revs as a dividend unless it moves the revs and stock price needles.
Edit: I’ve been wrong before, hope I am this time.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 31, 2019 12:25:14 GMT -8
We end the day +5.56 at 248.82. Not bad. At all.
Unless there's some broader market sell-off in the next few days which'll lead to an accelerated selling in AAPL because of the great run it's had of late, I see us making new ATHs. 275-280 by Jan earnings seems possible. A couple more upgraded price targets around 300 will serve as catalysts.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 12:54:01 GMT -8
Ya, I decided to post that partially based on your initial cool reaction to it. I suspect you wouldn't be the primary target, especially since you aren't drawn to Netflix (though are still paying for it). As Duckpins says, they may just need a few viral starters to get people on board. Again, it’s not that I (we) am “not drawn to Netflix,” otherwise we wouldn’t keep paying for it. It just comes down to how much time we have to spend watching some form of television and the multiplicity of choices that we already have. So far I am not convinced by what I have seen that Apple+ would displace any of our current choices. YMMV, and as an AAPL stockholder I certainly hope that our feelings are not typical. So whom do you see see as “the primary target”?
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Post by BillH on Oct 31, 2019 13:29:27 GMT -8
The loyalty and retention of their customers.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 13:38:58 GMT -8
Ya, I decided to post that partially based on your initial cool reaction to it. I suspect you wouldn't be the primary target, especially since you aren't drawn to Netflix (though are still paying for it). As Duckpins says, they may just need a few viral starters to get people on board. Again, it’s not that I (we) am “not drawn to Netflix,” otherwise we wouldn’t keep paying for it. It just comes down to how much time we have to spend watching some form of television and the multiplicity of choices that we already have. So far I am not convinced by what I have seen that Apple+ would displace any of our current choices. YMMV, and as an AAPL stockholder I certainly hope that our feelings are not typical. So whom do you see see as “the primary target”? By target, do you mean Netflix or HBO? At the moment it seems like there will be plenty of room for everyone to make quality products and profits. There's a chance that Apple may eventually figure out how to make the most compelling and accessible collection/interface. As JD points out, its still a niche project for Apple to play in relative to their other offerings, but as he also points out, there's lots of room for improvement by somebody with insight, intelligence and creativity. I also agree that what I've seen in terms of ATV trailers, shows, etc seems solid but not genre-changing. I guess we'll have to wait another day or 2 (or more) to tell. Artistry in computers may not equal artistry in film.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 13:48:24 GMT -8
Bill, I had trouble quoting your post. This is my answer. —-
What you replied consisted of the “why.” My question was who is the primary target of Apple TV+ ?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 13:52:33 GMT -8
Macprof, same question to you. You said I am not the primary target of Apple TV+, so who is? I am a long-time buyer/owner of Apple products and services.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 13:52:55 GMT -8
Another thing many have been chiding/writing off Apple since Steve exited is lack of new innovation. I think the expectation is akin to the next iPhone. I think the anal-ysts have been completely overlooking the present and future impact of new additions to the ecosystem, such as Apple card and soon to be Apple Music/TV/game center/etc entertainment juggernaut. And there’s a lot of stuff brewing in the kitchen. So I’m thinking we can safely put that one behind us.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 13:58:45 GMT -8
Macprof, same question to you. You said I am not the primary target of Apple TV+, so who is? I am a long-time buyer/owner of Apple products and services. Young kids/people for one. I'm guessing they spend more time and then following the crowd. The people that binged Breaking bad, Game of thrones and who knows how many zombie series.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 13:59:59 GMT -8
Another thing many have been chiding/writing off Apple since Steve exited is lack of new innovation. I think the expectation is akin to the next iPhone. I think the anal-ysts have been completely overlooking the present and future impact of new additions to the ecosystem, such as Apple card and soon to be Apple Music/TV/game center/etc entertainment juggernaut. And there’s a lot of stuff brewing in the kitchen. So I’m thinking we can safely put that one behind us. We are very long in AAPL, so I hope that Apple TV+ is fabulously successful. So far I have not seen anything to convince me. I think everyone here knows that I have high regard for Tim Cook, so I have faith that he must have a plan.
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Post by macprof on Oct 31, 2019 14:22:28 GMT -8
I hope nobody mistook my previous comment on people riding off Apple re innovation was directed at anyone on this board, just the opposite - those not privy to your wisdom.
Sorry for the noise.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 31, 2019 15:36:26 GMT -8
I hope nobody mistook my previous comment on people riding off Apple re innovation was directed at anyone on this board, just the opposite - those not privy to your wisdom. Sorry for the noise. All cool. Discussion is what this joint is for
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 31, 2019 16:42:23 GMT -8
At this rate of buybacks, Apple's outstanding shares in a year or so might possibly be under 4 bln. Quite unlikely, unless you expect a share price collapse, and I know you don't
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Post by therealmercel on Oct 31, 2019 16:53:07 GMT -8
Ya, I decided to post that partially based on your initial cool reaction to it. I suspect you wouldn't be the primary target, especially since you aren't drawn to Netflix (though are still paying for it). As Duckpins says, they may just need a few viral starters to get people on board. Again, it’s not that I (we) am “not drawn to Netflix,” otherwise we wouldn’t keep paying for it. It just comes down to how much time we have to spend watching some form of television and the multiplicity of choices that we already have. So far I am not convinced by what I have seen that Apple+ would displace any of our current choices. YMMV, and as an AAPL stockholder I certainly hope that our feelings are not typical. So whom do you see see as “the primary target”? It's worth "free" until a number (and not just one) of its offerings are compelling enough such that I'm willing to part with $4.95 per month. I'm skeptical, unless Apple uses the next year to augment its original content with a catalog.
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Post by eastbaybob on Oct 31, 2019 17:25:35 GMT -8
Macprof, same question to you. You said I am not the primary target of Apple TV+, so who is? I am a long-time buyer/owner of Apple products and services. Young kids/people for one. I'm guessing they spend more time and then following the crowd. The people that binged Breaking bad, Game of thrones and who knows how many zombie series. I am in the Primary target. I have been retired for 10 years and I watch a lot of TV. We have HBO, Showtime, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu. I am looking forward to Apple TV. I have not seen any of the previews other than what Apple showed at the last conference. I am hoping the shows will be good but so far the reviews have not been encouraging. I think overall HBO over the years has had the best shows, Netflix has some great series, but you have too search for them. Amazon also has some great series as well as Hulu. I have seen some incredible Israeli series and movies on Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. To say 1% of what's on is worth watching is laughable. This is called the Platinum Age of Television. If anyone wants to know about some really high quality Israeli shows send me a message. Right now I would say my favorite show is The French Village on Hulu. It is a French show about the nazi occupation. Pretty amazing, 5 seasons on Hulu and the final two seasons on MHZ Network. I agree that there are a lot of bad shows on Netflix but there are good ones if you know what to look for. One advantage of Netflix is that it has Dolby Vision and Atmos sound if you are interested in that sort of thing and I am. I converted my home theater system to Atmos and it was worth the expense
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 1, 2019 9:02:49 GMT -8
Young kids/people for one. I'm guessing they spend more time and then following the crowd. The people that binged Breaking bad, Game of thrones and who knows how many zombie series. I am in the Primary target. I have been retired for 10 years and I watch a lot of TV. We have HBO, Showtime, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu. I am looking forward to Apple TV. I have not seen any of the previews other than what Apple showed at the last conference. I am hoping the shows will be good but so far the reviews have not been encouraging. I think overall HBO over the years has had the best shows, Netflix has some great series, but you have too search for them. Amazon also has some great series as well as Hulu. I have seen some incredible Israeli series and movies on Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. To say 1% of what's on is worth watching is laughable. This is called the Platinum Age of Television. If anyone wants to know about some really high quality Israeli shows send me a message. Right now I would say my favorite show is The French Village on Hulu. It is a French show about the nazi occupation. Pretty amazing, 5 seasons on Hulu and the final two seasons on MHZ Network. I agree that there are a lot of bad shows on Netflix but there are good ones if you know what to look for. One advantage of Netflix is that it has Dolby Vision and Atmos sound if you are interested in that sort of thing and I am. I converted my home theater system to Atmos and it was worth the expense Keep laughing. All of my friends (productive adults with disposable income) are cord cutters. These days most people have IRL pursuits beyond sitting in front of the boob tube. I think TV and movies have gotten worse, not better, at least for my half of the country.
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 1, 2019 10:02:48 GMT -8
I hope we can all agree that buying Netflix would have been idiocy. Like all purchases, it all depends on when and at what price. So, if this ATV+ thing takes off, and eventually becomes a big services success, and provides all that nice profit, then it'll be a great thing. Similarly, had they bought Netflix at the right time, and had it become successful many years earlier than ATV+ will (may), then it would have also been a great thing. It happens to be that at the time we had lots of conversation regarding purchasing Netflix, I was opposed because I thought it was way overvalued, and with that amount of capital (in the $10s of B), I thought Apple could "build their own" and do it better. Now, on a different topic of a potential Apple purchase, I *still* think that not buying Waze at a sub-billion price way back when we discussed it here (or on our old haunts for Apple discussions) was a big mistake. Had Apple purchased Waze back then, the utility and quality of Apple Maps would have become supreme a lot earlier than they will eventually become. Waze is an app that I use EVERY SINGLE TIME I am in a moving vehicle, as a driver or as a passenger. Even for my short drive to and from my office, I use it. It is among my most-used apps consistently since the day I installed it (and I "paved" many of the roads around here, and around places I visited, so that shows how early I started).
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