4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 21, 2019 14:43:47 GMT -8
Is the worry about being a one-sided echo chamber for a non-AAPL political preference? I thought we had all done a good job of minimizing politics in the daily thread for the last month+. OTOH, a political forum or echo chamber is not what I am worried about, nor why I come here. Instead, I'd be worried about the potential of a one-sided echo chamber on AAPL, specifically the Bullish side. There are many times in the past where "we", being AAPL investors in general, have been blindsided by a 10-50% downturn. Personally, I don't want that to happen to me again, even if I choose to keep most of my bullish positions. With all due respect, I believe that we need to recognize that the outlooks of longs vs. traders here are quite different. The traders can benefit from movement in either direction, and may at times be hoping for a drop in AAPL, if only temporarily. Longs never benefit from a drop, other than as it may serve as “the pause that refreshes” or a buying opportunity. Neither group is intrinsically more deserving, but it is certainly understandable that their reactions in the short term may be quite different. I don’t expect that many of the traders here desire a long term drop, but neither should the joy that longs find in solid gains be repressed. I don't worry about the joy that anyone finds in making money to be a problem, whether that's short term or long term, until they become giddy and blind to the risks. OTOH, it's more the theory behind the 'car talk' superstition, where at times things are so blissful or the blinders are so focused, that you don't notice the train coming in from the side. I'm happy if there is no train, or if we're ready for it and move. But history has shown that there are times where we aren't ready for it, and it hits us. To me, AAPL is in the territory of "things are doing fairly well, the outlook looks good, and the stock is roughly fairly priced". Those are mostly opinions, and so they will vary, but given my opinions on it and in the past, there have been very few times in the past couple decades where AAPL was like this. That said, it doesn't feel like a frothy top, at least here about AAPL. Sure, some are talking about some great gains that they have taken, and that's a good thing as long as everyone isn't patting themselves on the back about how easy the money is and all of the "no downside opportunities" there are to make 300%. It's often when no downside can be seen, that it is creeping on up. Keep an open mind. Even for long term investors that plan to hold forever, it's still important. In fact, it's even more important, since long term investors have such a long term horizon. Then again, we are all at different points, and have held (or not) through different events, and through different losses, realized or otherwise. Good luck all. Keep your eyes and ears open!
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Post by BillH on Nov 21, 2019 16:41:34 GMT -8
I ride the coaster up and down but may rethink the long part if I fear that increased taxes on capital gains are likely. Were I Tim Cook my primary motivation in inviting the President to Austin would be simply to get more face time to press Apples position on the value of tariffs and how the negotiations with the Chinese might go better. It wouldn't be more complicated than that.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 21, 2019 18:59:26 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Nov 21, 2019 19:54:38 GMT -8
Non-political post. The defense must cross examine. Anyone with a brain firestorm, knows what he meant unless there is a room in your gray matter to color it the way you want others to see it. What he meant was crystal clear. After Trump departed the factory, he tweeted, “Today I opened a major Apple Manufacturing plant in Texas that will bring high paying jobs back" It's totally disingenuous and misleading as he had nothing to do with the "opening" of the plant. Apple enthusiasts know this but most people do not and therefore the statement can be taken only one way. Cheers to the longs. Yes it was crystal clear if you read in context. Religions are born when people take verses out of context and murder the subject and object. Trump opened, Nancy closed. He obviously could have phrased better though. I explained in the Dungeon under Lucky’s Trump Land ongoing thread. Lol
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 21, 2019 21:05:08 GMT -8
Ok Im sorry bout my post, I got way ahead of myself. I was wrong but yes the promise of relaxed tariffs, blah blah etc. Refer to JD's post. He clearly is very articulate always. You and I will never agree politically, macster, but kudos to you for posting that. Many of us get ahead of ourselves while posting something in the heat of the moment and it's to your credit that you posted that after further reflection.
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Post by silkstone on Nov 22, 2019 6:24:50 GMT -8
Stop defending the lie. .... pretty please ... with sugar on top I know no human being that would actually think they could get away with it or believe it if he did actually think that he opened it. Okay. It was stupid to say that he opened it, thats obvious. Its you guys or girls bitching on this intraday thread that is also so ridiculous. People in general expect the potus (any President) to speak the truth, be trustworthy and to not tell lies. They were taught this as toddlers by their parents and they’ve been telling their kids the same thing. To ignore the constant lying is to believe it’s okay when it’s not.
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Post by macster on Nov 22, 2019 12:36:35 GMT -8
I know no human being that would actually think they could get away with it or believe it if he did actually think that he opened it. Okay. It was stupid to say that he opened it, thats obvious. Its you guys or girls bitching on this intraday thread that is also so ridiculous. People in general expect the potus (any President) to speak the truth, be trustworthy and to not tell lies. They were taught this as toddlers by their parents and they’ve been telling their kids the same thing. To ignore the constant lying is to believe it’s okay when it’s not. Yes true He does get carried away in his zeal to sway opinion in his favor to the press and yes extreme exaggeration is a lie. In context though he didn't tell a lie in that particular tweet. You cannot take I opened without the Nancy closed. Explained it in simple terms here: aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/2270/trump-land-political-commentary?page=18Thank you and good night. Have a great weekend. Over and out.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2019 11:51:20 GMT -8
I know no human being that would actually think they could get away with it or believe it if he did actually think that he opened it. Okay. It was stupid to say that he opened it, thats obvious. Its you guys or girls bitching on this intraday thread that is also so ridiculous. People in general expect the potus (any President) to speak the truth, be trustworthy and to not tell lies. They were taught this as toddlers by their parents and they’ve been telling their kids the same thing. To ignore the constant lying is to believe it’s okay when it’s not. A good quote I can't take credit for: "Liberal's take Trump literally but not seriously; conservatives take Trump seriously but not literally." But yeah, I miss that honest president! "If you like your plan you can keep your plan." (left-leaning Politifact's 2013 Lie of the Year). Oh well, only 1/5 of our economy so no biggie. "Obama admits there were no “shovel ready jobs.” Oh well only a trillion-dollar lie for the so-called stimulus. "Obama DID Lie: Obamacare Now Paying for Illegal Immigrants." Oh well they only called a congressman a racist for pointing this out at the state-of-the-union. "Axelrod: Obama Misled Nation When He Opposed Gay Marriage In 2008." Oh well it's more fun to call Republicans anti-LGBT anyway, even if Dick Cheney came out in favor of gay marriage before Obama did! “I continue to say that Jerusalem will be the capital of Israel, and I have said that before, and I will say it again." Obama running for president in 2008. Never happened under Obama, then he criticized Trump for doing it.
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