Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Dec 3, 2019 5:49:41 GMT -8
Good morning. AAPL is in a free fall in pre-market this morning. $260.00 looks like a line of support but it’s already dropped below that line in pre-market. Looks like a good day to be on the sidelines.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 3, 2019 6:00:11 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Dec 3, 2019 6:21:15 GMT -8
Just a reminder that part of opening the daily thread is to record the day’s price action after the close. The standard format is visible going back for years, and is available at end of day at finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL&.tsrc=fin-srch, for example. This has been done as a service to the community going back to the beginning of the forum. It’s never too late to do it, even days later.
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Post by lulli on Dec 3, 2019 7:13:05 GMT -8
A strange turn of events with multiple implications, because he doing this would seem to really make sure he won't be re-elected, which all seems to combine into making investors unhappy short term (2020) and happier long term (2021) because of an expected increase in stability, and would also promise a short term recovery from this dip as soon as that statement is retracted. Trying to time this with a small option position and a tight stop....
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 3, 2019 7:30:45 GMT -8
as phil schiller would say..... 'agreement in principle my ass!'
glta... trade 'em well!
edit to add... for those trying to see how far back aapl can fall if a deal is NOT reached... the 'agreement in principle' with fanfares was announced on oct 11:
aapl closed at $230 on october 10... then $236 on oct 11 on the trade 'agreement' news
of course, there's been other positive developments in apple and pretty good guidance for this q... but keep this $230 in mind for a moderately bad-case scenario
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 3, 2019 7:57:38 GMT -8
A strange turn of events with multiple implications, because he doing this would seem to really make sure he won't be re-elected, which all seems to combine into making investors unhappy short term (2020) and happier long term (2021) because of an expected increase in stability, and would also promise a short term recovery from this dip as soon as that statement is retracted. Trying to time this with a small option position and a tight stop.... Hey lulli - Curious to know what option and stop are you thinking of. Btw, I put in a limit order for 50 Jan 2020 280 calls at $1.00. I doubt it'll get filled but you never know.
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2019 9:00:12 GMT -8
It's amazing how even a relatively small pullback feels after hitting so many ATH's.
This was true, to me, the times before when there'd just be a $3 pullback. Today, with as much as nearly $12 off since yesterday morning's new ATH, it's a bit sharper. But WW's post of $230 less than 2 months ago is a reminder of how much things have changed so quickly.
If you're looking at the short to even mid-term timeframes, you have to worry about all this stuff. But if you're only thinking long term, there's plenty else you can do on days like today while the market reminds people that it doesn't just go upwards.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 3, 2019 9:37:13 GMT -8
Btw, I put in a limit order for 50 Jan 2020 280 calls at $1.00. I doubt it'll get filled but you never know.
vegas-worthy bet..... good luck!
i suppose there are worse ways to lose $5k, especially if you stand to gain 10x that... but i think that the bet depends on the deal with china coming in december *and* a good reaction to it *and* continued good vibes on apple products, forming a nice lil christmas rally
basically need the stock to go up 10% from here in 6 weeks... not impossible, but difficult imo given the monster rally we've had
(given today's trading your order probably didn't fill anyway... these were going for a buck-fifty when i looked)
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 3, 2019 9:43:27 GMT -8
It's amazing how even a relatively small pullback feels after hitting so many ATH's.This was true, to me, the times before when there'd just be a $3 pullback. Today, with as much as nearly $12 off since yesterday morning's new ATH, it's a bit sharper. But WW's post of $230 less than 2 months ago is a reminder of how much things have changed so quickly. If you're looking at the short to even mid-term timeframes, you have to worry about all this stuff. But if you're only thinking long term, there's plenty else you can do on days like today while the market reminds people that it doesn't just go upwards.
exactly! we're down just 4% from ATH! nothin' to hyperventilate about
i'm actually surprised the reaction to trump's comments is so muted... probably because of either fatigue, or calling his bluff (i.e. it's believing it's just a negotiating tactic, and trump still wants to sign)... if the deal definitely falls apart for 2019, imho there's further to fall...
back in may AAPL went down from $215 after earnings to $173... almost a 20% drop over the course of a month! and it was pretty much 100% trade related
20% off of $268 is $215
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Dec 3, 2019 10:17:03 GMT -8
he probably doesn't have much choice. China's smart, they'll call his bluff and wait him out, he's trying to spin it to save face (and failed).
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Dec 3, 2019 10:18:27 GMT -8
A strange turn of events with multiple implications, because he doing this would seem to really make sure he won't be re-elected, which all seems to combine into making investors unhappy short term (2020) and happier long term (2021) because of an expected increase in stability, and would also promise a short term recovery from this dip as soon as that statement is retracted. Trying to time this with a small option position and a tight stop.... I was thinking that too, there should be a bounce. 3/2020 calls looking somewhat nicely priced, for example. (around or somewhat ITM)
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Post by macster on Dec 3, 2019 10:46:29 GMT -8
he probably doesn't have much choice. China's smart, they'll call his bluff and wait him out, he's trying to spin it to save face (and failed). Maybe but I think as a outsider I expected that he got some expected fallout from China after signing the pro Hong Kong resolution last week. Yawn. The Communist are not dumb, they had to denounce the resolution to save face but doesnt mean trade talks are ending for good.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2019 11:15:14 GMT -8
he probably doesn't have much choice. China's smart, they'll call his bluff and wait him out, he's trying to spin it to save face (and failed). Um, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but China is in the middle of a major protest and social upheaval and their economic growth has slowed considerably (again, they need our market more than we need theirs). The pressure is on Xi, as I posted in the George Friedman piece the other day. I’m not necessarily trying to defend Trump or claim 4D chess here, but China is definitely not the long view monolith some like to portray them as. Trump could actually be in office longer than Xi. Don’t underestimate the power of the recent pro-freedom bill DJT just signed. That hurt Xi, just like Reagan’s rhetoric hurt the Soviets. Xi would really like the US to STFU about the freedom thing, so it’s added leverage. Anyway, a little consolidation and pullback is healthy. Let’s look forward to the 270’s soon. 📈
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Post by duckpins on Dec 3, 2019 12:54:56 GMT -8
Protest in HK is not something any American is a position to analyze. Xi and the leadership see this as the Century of China. This is a blip. China bought Club Med to get ready for 100 million middle class travelers. Trump is saying he has to be elected to motivate his base to elect him. So this will drag on. It is a lever Trump is pulling to motivate his base. Apple at a 22.5 PE that is noteworthy. When was it there last?
The bill Trump signed is the last gasp of a paper tiger before it dies. I don't see economic sanctions on China as a remote possibility. But war with Iran is fine. This is psychotic.
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Post by macster on Dec 3, 2019 13:08:28 GMT -8
Trump is saying he has to be elected to motivate his base to elect him. So this will drag on. It is a lever Trump is pulling to motivate his base. Apple at a 22.5 PE that is noteworthy. When was it there last? The bill Trump signed is the last gasp of a paper tiger before it dies. I don't see economic sanctions on China as a remote possibility. But war with Iran is fine. This is psychotic. I'm not sure what reality you (Plural) live in except most likely under the influence of the leftist MSM. "Trump is saying he has to be elected to motivate his base to elect him"? "last gasp of a paper tiger"? "War with Iran is fine"? Please turn it off for awhile or instead turn on the Hallmark Channel. The Markets, Apple and the US economy are doing fine.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2019 15:14:30 GMT -8
Isn't that what you just did, Dr Kissinger? Um, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act was passed by Congress 417-1. Why would Democrats unanimously pass a bill to motivate Trump's base? So you think Trump voters care more about the Hong Kong protests than the stock market? I seriously doubt Trump will get more votes by the stock market going down. Seems to me he really believes in what he's doing (he's been talking about Chinese trade abuses for decades). I'm just going out on a limb here and going to say that Trump has more potential voters in the investment class than Elizabeth Warren or Bernie or Joe do, this board notwithstanding. Who's the paper tiger? The US? Trump? What are you even talking about? Trump wants to get us out of these endless Middle East wars (and he's pissing off the Deep State doing so). It is "psychotic" to recognize democratic movements in repressive dictatorships? I guess you'd have us just drop the mullahs more Pallets of Cash™? Anyway, I think we can all agree we'll be happy when the trade deals are finalized.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 3, 2019 15:17:31 GMT -8
I'm surprised that a tweet by trump can still move the needle on stock prices this much. I don't think that anyone really expects that he is capable of resolving a complex trade deal with China, so putting it off to the next president is probably the only option at this point. I have to wonder, however, who is profiting off the tweets that massively swing the stock market.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2019 15:18:41 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2019 15:26:31 GMT -8
I'm surprised that a tweet by trump can still move the needle on stock prices this much. I don't think that anyone really expects that he is capable of resolving a complex trade deal with China, so putting it off to the next president is probably the only option at this point. I have to wonder, however, who is profiting off the tweets that massively swing the stock market. While we Trump voters appreciate you taking the time and energy to speak for all of us, I personally believe Trump will eventually sign a deal. Why wait until 2027? Oddschecker 2020 election odds. I love how you libs jump between "Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth" and "Dur hur orange man too dumb to sign his name."
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 3, 2019 15:42:48 GMT -8
I'm surprised that a tweet by trump can still move the needle on stock prices this much. I don't think that anyone really expects that he is capable of resolving a complex trade deal with China, so putting it off to the next president is probably the only option at this point. I have to wonder, however, who is profiting off the tweets that massively swing the stock market. While we Trump voters appreciate you taking the time and energy to speak for all of us, I personally believe Trump will eventually sign a deal. Why wait until 2027? Oddschecker 2020 election odds. I love how you libs jump between "Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth" and "Dur hur orange man too dumb to sign his name." well-well, look who's back... can't speak for 'libs' (i'm not one) but some of you repubes can only dream of term limits abolished for your Dear Leader to follow in the likes of putin and kim jong un (2027, really?) jd, if you wanna throw around political poop in the daily thread, don't be surprised when one flies back ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by silkstone on Dec 3, 2019 15:49:00 GMT -8
I'm surprised that a tweet by trump can still move the needle on stock prices this much. I don't think that anyone really expects that he is capable of resolving a complex trade deal with China, so putting it off to the next president is probably the only option at this point. I have to wonder, however, who is profiting off the tweets that massively swing the stock market. While we Trump voters appreciate you taking the time and energy to speak for all of us, I personally believe Trump will eventually sign a deal. Why wait until 2027? Oddschecker 2020 election odds. I love how you libs jump between "Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth" and "Dur hur orange man too dumb to sign his name." Right, you shouldn’t be surprised, he’s not stupid. He goes both ways.
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Post by david on Dec 3, 2019 15:49:23 GMT -8
"Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth".
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Post by firestorm on Dec 3, 2019 17:10:21 GMT -8
I'm surprised that a tweet by trump can still move the needle on stock prices this much. I don't think that anyone really expects that he is capable of resolving a complex trade deal with China, so putting it off to the next president is probably the only option at this point. I have to wonder, however, who is profiting off the tweets that massively swing the stock market. While we Trump voters appreciate you taking the time and energy to speak for all of us, I personally believe Trump will eventually sign a deal. Why wait until 2027? Oddschecker 2020 election odds. I love how you libs jump between "Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth" and "Dur hur orange man too dumb to sign his name." You got it backwards: Putin is the Machiavellian genius who installed trump in the White House, because Putin IS capable of playing 4D Chess. Trump is too incompetent to sign a deal with China before the election, which doesn't matter to him, because his rural farmers will still support him even after they go bankrupt.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2019 17:38:30 GMT -8
While we Trump voters appreciate you taking the time and energy to speak for all of us, I personally believe Trump will eventually sign a deal. Why wait until 2027? Oddschecker 2020 election odds. I love how you libs jump between "Trump is a Machiavellian genius who played 4D chess with Putin to rig the biggest election on earth" and "Dur hur orange man too dumb to sign his name." well-well, look who's back... can't speak for 'libs' (i'm not one) but some of you repubes can only dream of term limits abolished for your Dear Leader to follow in the likes of putin and kim jong un (2027, really?) jd, if you wanna throw around political poop in the daily thread, don't be surprised when one flies back ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I was pooping on AFB a long time before you showed up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by longsince98 on Dec 3, 2019 19:03:59 GMT -8
Jesus Christ guys. Calm your frikkin t*ts. It’s a couple bad days. We’ve had a ton of good ones.
Most of us are in AAPL for its fundamentals, so these short term swings don’t matter - and those who’re in for the swings surely know the risks.
Can we please PLEASE keep a civil board?
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walterwhite
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 3, 2019 20:28:17 GMT -8
funny! i liked it genuinely (not sarcastically). cheers!
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Dec 4, 2019 6:38:16 GMT -8
Btw, I put in a limit order for 50 Jan 2020 280 calls at $1.00. I doubt it'll get filled but you never know. It's looks like you made a good call.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Dec 4, 2019 11:15:15 GMT -8
did that limit order fill?
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