JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 6, 2019 19:52:50 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $269.35 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (4PM CENTRAL)
Yep, that damn Tim Cook. If he only knew what the heck he was doing. Very impressive rally today. Yep, we have Tim Cook to thank for the record Dow and NASDAQ and record low unemployment. Well done, Tim! 👏🏻 CNBC’s Cramer on jobs report: “these are the best numbers of our lives” youtu.be/FVwTD2aqLOQ (For the record, my tits are quite calm).
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 6, 2019 23:31:24 GMT -8
Yep, that damn Tim Cook.  If he only knew what the heck he was doing.  Very impressive rally today. Yep, we have Tim Cook to thank for the record Dow and NASDAQ and record low unemployment. Well done, Tim! 👏🏻 CNBC’s Cramer on jobs report: “these are the best numbers of our lives” youtu.be/FVwTD2aqLOQ (For the record, my tits are quite calm). The U.S. unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years and seems to have gone from 4.7% in December of 2016 down to 3.5% as of December 6, 2019. The drop since 2009 looks pretty impressive on the chart and *perhaps* getting that -1.2% drop over the last 3 years was equally as difficult as the -5.3 drop from 10% in October of 2009 down to 4.7% in December of 2016. Or, it may have simply been a continuation of the trend line...who really knows for sure? 10/2009 to 12/2016: -5.3% drop in unemployment 01/2016 to 12/2019: -1.2% drop in unemployment Civilian unemployment rate
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Post by silkstone on Dec 7, 2019 7:08:28 GMT -8
Yep, that damn Tim Cook. If he only knew what the heck he was doing. Very impressive rally today. Yep, we have Tim Cook to thank for the record Dow and NASDAQ and record low unemployment. Well done, Tim! 👏🏻 CNBC’s Cramer on jobs report: “these are the best numbers of our lives” youtu.be/FVwTD2aqLOQ (For the record, my tits are quite calm). Yep, he the man. Trump has done a good job of not screwing up the job growth obama started. Of course the 24 trillion in debt has never been higher and he didn’t do anything about that number except make it higher.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 7, 2019 8:50:39 GMT -8
Straying from the topic.
Let's enjoy this run, while remembering to include at least a nugget about AAPL or Apple in any post on the daily thread.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 7, 2019 11:12:41 GMT -8
(For the record, my tits are quite calm). jd you should visit place... they'll fix you up, buddy! www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9FCOAEPHHM(and yeah, i know the rv looks kinda like mine... and harvey keitel looks like me but with more hair and a hat)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 7, 2019 11:31:54 GMT -8
Yep, we have Tim Cook to thank for the record Dow and NASDAQ and record low unemployment. Well done, Tim! 👏🏻 CNBC’s Cramer on jobs report: “these are the best numbers of our lives” youtu.be/FVwTD2aqLOQ (For the record, my tits are quite calm). Yep, he the man. Trump has done a good job of not screwing up the job growth obama started. Of course the 24 trillion in debt has never been higher and he didn’t do anything about that number except make it higher. Funny how it's the Democrats who want to abandon capitalism for socialism, but Trump is the one who is going to mess up the Obama record of being the first president in history to not achieve 3% annual growth over 8 years. And even Obama said that jobs won't be coming back:
Funny how everyone here curses Trump when AAPL drops a dollar, but it's "Thank God for Tim and/or Obama" when the entire stock market goes up. Anyway, I'm so thankful for that hidden hand of the free market that magically has made me richer than ever.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 7, 2019 11:34:56 GMT -8
well done dreamraj! i agree these are getting quite binary... only way to appreciate is if it rapidly moves past $280 (which would likely require positive trade deal resolution)... too much risk of going to zero from either a hiccup in trade by dec 15th, or even just staying in place / taking a rest i too made some swing trade money this week: 10 grand (bought june 250s on tue, sold today)... need a new RV!! Hmmm It's all risk/reward, which differs for each, but I would have been tempted to hold onto those Jan 280's for another week. I'd give 50/50 odds on a run to $280 next week, and that 10 point gain would likely add 8 points to the options, for a potential $85k gain instead of $5k.Then again, with those odds, there's a half chance of staying flat or going down, so one could sell half, and hold the rest. Oh well, I'm not the one with the options, and I lost (and gained) a lot by taking on more risk back when I used them more. Happy Weekend all!
hmmm....
...first, dreamraj bought them for $3.10 not $1 (last post on page 1.... he said he bought 100 for 31k)... i think 5 grand on 30k is ok in a week, but i honestly prefer my 10 grand on 30k (coincidentally same amount)... i bought june 250s on tue, sold on fri up 35%..... otm options are a fun piece of explosive, but the dynamite might have a short fuse... important to run for the hills before they explode in your face
...second, why the hypotheticals? if you believe it and give 50/50 odds, you should buy the option at $3.10 and sell at $8 next week (50% chance to lose $3.10 and 50% chance to gain $4.90)
what difference does it make that raj already had the option? endowment effect? i sometimes look at my more risky positions and ask, 'if i didn't own this today, would i buy it?' if the answer is 'HELL NO' then it's time to sell! ...edit to add.... basically, i think good job dreamraj for controlling risk! if it runs to $280 next week, we have other positions to gain from... but if it stayed in place or went lower that's $10k-$20k gone... a nice rv!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,050
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Post by Dave on Dec 7, 2019 11:38:32 GMT -8
Yep, we have Tim Cook to thank for the record Dow and NASDAQ and record low unemployment. Well done, Tim! 👏🏻 CNBC’s Cramer on jobs report: “these are the best numbers of our lives” youtu.be/FVwTD2aqLOQ (For the record, my tits are quite calm). The U.S. unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years and seems to have gone from 4.7% in December of 2016 down to 3.5% as of December 6, 2019. The drop since 2009 looks pretty impressive on the chart and *perhaps* getting that -1.2% drop over the last 3 years was equally as difficult as the -5.3 drop from 10% in October of 2009 down to 4.7% in December of 2016. Or, it may have simply been a continuation of the trend line...who really knows for sure? 10/2009 to 12/2016: -5.3% drop in unemployment 01/2016 to 12/2019: -1.2% drop in unemployment Civilian unemployment rateMy response is here: The 2020 Presidential Election
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 7, 2019 12:13:36 GMT -8
Hmmm It's all risk/reward, which differs for each, but I would have been tempted to hold onto those Jan 280's for another week. I'd give 50/50 odds on a run to $280 next week, and that 10 point gain would likely add 8 points to the options, for a potential $85k gain instead of $5k.Then again, with those odds, there's a half chance of staying flat or going down, so one could sell half, and hold the rest. Oh well, I'm not the one with the options, and I lost (and gained) a lot by taking on more risk back when I used them more. Happy Weekend all! hmmm.... ...first, dreamraj bought them for $3.10 not $1 (last post on page 1.... he said he bought 100 for 31k)... i think 5 grand on 30k is ok in a week, but i honestly prefer my 10 grand on 30k (coincidentally same amount)... i bought june 250s on tue, sold on fri up 35%..... otm options are a fun piece of explosive, but the dynamite might have a short fuse... important to run for the hills before they explode in your face ...second, why the hypotheticals? if you believe it and give 50/50 odds, you should buy the option at $3.10 and sell at $8 next week (50% chance to lose $3.10 and 50% chance to gain $4.90) what difference does it make that raj already had the option? endowment effect? i sometimes look at my more risky positions and ask, 'if i didn't own this today, would i buy it?' if the answer is 'HELL NO' then it's time to sell!
It all depends on how you look at it. Straight options take on more risk, and isn't a good fit for everyone. But once you make that step, you're in. Personally, I'm not playing with bullish options these days, but I'm also not headed over to the roulette table 2 miles away. But I decided long ago when I was playing with options that I needed the potential payoff to be high. I wasn't taking on a chance of losing 100% if I could only gain 100%. Instead, I aimed for 300% being reasonable, and played with these in a timeframe where they generally paid off nicely. These days I like spreads more, though it's been a while. That does give a lot more options of risk/reward, and so it really changes things. But on straight calls, the expiration is still 1.5 months out. The pricing will start to drop off quickly due to the time premium collapse and any pullback or steadiness of the stock. But you've already made it through the hard part, choosing to take on the risk, and then being punished while the stock was down. If an upside in the stock of $10 this week is reasonable, and thus $7-8 additional in the option, you're looking at a lot of gravy, including a 200% potential gain from the current price. If you're looking at a 200% upside vs a 50% downside, this week, that's a pretty good multiple. I'd take those payoffs on a coin toss any day, again and again. So then it just comes down if the odds are anywhere close to 50/50, which is yet another personal preference. It does sound like I should take that bet, but it just doesn't interest me that much. Even at a potential 4:1 payoff, it just wouldn't move the needle, in comparison to our AAPL investment gains just on Friday alone. Instead I'll sit and watch, while paying attention, so that I'm ready to make a much larger bet when the odds and payoff are even better. But you're right, it all depends on your timeframe and risk level. I agree that an old RV worth of profit in 2 days is a nice little perk. Congrats!
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