Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2019 10:42:25 GMT -5
So nice to see some of the old names still here - I read now and then but decided to say hi this time. Apple looking great here - For the fibonacci people 1.236 @ $284.80 and with enough buying power can get to $290 As for anyone else - if you are in a taxable account - you want to wait till the new year to sell and defer taxes which I believe is what you are basically seeing: a lack of sellers. No matter how you cut it - it's a definite "whee" which is both a fundamental as well as technical term. Hope everyone is enjoying this run ~ happy holidays and healthy new year to all!
"Apple (AAPL) continued to lead in buybacks, spending $17.6 billion in Q3 2019, ranking 8th in S&P 500 history, as the level was down 2.9% from their Q2 2019 $18.2 billion expenditure. Over the past 12-months, Apple has spent $69.7 billion on buybacks, down from $75.3 billion in the prior 12-month period. Over the five-year period they have spent $247.8 billion, more than the market value of Home Depot."
I'd rather have anxiety about Apple's meteoric rise than over it falling like a broken elevator.
Ono beat me to it; Despite its "meteoric rise," Apple is still trading below the S&P 500 average, i.e., still priced like a public utility.
This doesn't stop the dummies on CNBC for calling it expensive. That incredibly annoying Andrew Ross Sorkin (why would an investment channel have an anti-business guy on during prime market hours?!) had some guy on with his top stocks for 2020 list, and was blathering about Apple's "market cap." That's how you spot a charlatan. Who gives a shit about stock price X total shares? When has that ever been predictive of anything? You'll never see Ono's P/E point on CNBC. I'm generally not a big fan of P/E's for individual stock valuations, but if you're going to call a stock overpriced, what metric do you use (especially in an era of Chipotle and Tesla)?
I have zero TV programming experience or training, but I am confident that I could develop a show right now that would pull CNBC's best ratings. If they were trying to get bad ratings, I don't know what they would do differently. BTW I am a cord cutter, but Charles Schwab's Street Smart Edge software gives me a free stream of CNLSD...
JD. I agree with you here but this run and this bull mkt in general is giving me pause. I’d like to hear from you how you would value tapple which metric would you use to assess overvalued.
If you could find a metric and you became convinced we were way past it , what would you do, sell the stock and wait., use options etc. I know we all have different situations risk tolerance etc. but would like to hear the res of the board Chime in.
Eric in Austin
I think stock prices are based on sentiment and momentum, both individual stocks and the indexes. I don't really believe in fundamental metrics anymore, as there seems no correlation between P/Es (or anything else) and stock price. Even on CNBC nobody ever mentions P/E. The best we get from CNBC is "but but market cap!" which makes no sense to me. Just once I'd like to see some "expert" on CNBC be asked, "why is price x number of shares relevant to a stock's valuation?" I do believe that stock splits are good because too many people just look at large absolute numbers and get scared. So I am very pro-split (does anyone here really believe AAPL would be trading at 56,000 if there had been no splits?).
We're in an era where "cool ideas" trump fundamentals. It used to be, invention + market = innovation (hattip: Guy Kawasaki), but a lot of SV ideas seem to forget that second part. Ironically, this does give companies time to get profitable that didn't exist in the past (Amazon, Tesla, Facebook). If Amazon had been treated by investors and WS as Sears or Circuit City were, they'd be a footnote in history right now. Some of these companies will never pay off with real earnings IMO (I suspect gig economy services like Uber or food delivery).
Apple being a Dow 30 component is a double edged sword. As long as the Dow roars we're good (30,000 here we come?). But if the Dow lags, there's little Apple can do not to be drawn into its gravity. People complain about cheap money and the Fed's low rates priming the pump, but if Wall Street and their Fed cronies want the market to go up, it will go up. Don't fight the Fed or the Evil Overlords. This is why buy and hold is great. The traders make money with volatility, but IMO, there is a general up trend over time that is built into the system (otherwise the sell side will have nobody to sell to) unless a black swan honks. And even then it comes back (2009 was the mother of all Buying Opportunities™). There are just too many powerful forces at stake that want the market to rise. So long as the economy hums along, and the trade deal gets solved (I suspect Trump wants to time it perfectly to get a huge Dow run right around election time), and no other disasters strike, all is well.
I honestly believe as long as Apple can beat WS's made up numbers, we're good. The key is diversifying into other products and services that can move the revenue needle. The earpods are a pleasant surprise in that regard, even if I don't like their color non-options. I'm not sure about video content. It just seems so expensive for what kind of net return? To some degree it seems like viewers are insatiable and want unlimited content for cheap. I think it's safe to say that wearables are going to be huge.
Fortunately, I think Tim and Luca "outstanding shares sleep with the fishes" Brasi have figured out the beat-the-street game well enough to engineer beats. At least I hope. I give Tim a lot of shit about his politics, but he has been masterful at playing both sides well in this regard (SJW's like him and Trump likes him and even the Chinese government likes him). Not a lot of guys who could pull that off! Beating the street is, unfortunately, everything.
And it is healthy to have a little pullback now and again, so don't panic when that inevitably happens.
Is it too soon to talk about 400?
Last Edit: Dec 17, 2019 15:25:40 GMT -5 by JDSoCal: Gramuur
"Our favorite holding period is forever." -- Warren Buffett
As for anyone else - if you are in a taxable account - you want to wait till the new year to sell and defer taxes which I believe is what you are basically seeing: a lack of sellers.
That all depends.
I've had a few years, including this one, where it makes sense to take some gains now to hit lower tax rates. In past years, this has often been a sell and immediate rebuy. Even when just looking at long term cap gains rates, this can knock federal taxes down from 23.8% to as little as 0%, depending on the situation. Whereas I like that 0% rate and even feel it's a bit wrong, it helps make up for some of those years where I was paying up to 39% on nice options gains that had short term taxes directly or indirectly (by being offsetting or on the short side of a spread, and hence not considered for LTCG).
This year it might not be an immediate rebuy, if I'm knocking down the margin account so that I have plenty of powder waiting. (It's different than Walter's TV character, and yet so similar.)
But keep in mind that taxes are still due quarterly, so if you have a large gain that you cash out, delaying it into a new calendar year doesn't buy you an extra 12 months...unless using a safe harbor method, of which there are many.
Like many things, it's hard to quantify how much of a different people potentially waiting to sell for tax reasons makes for the stock. I think the biggest thing right now is the economy is still moving, a few wall of worry items have been neutralized or minimized, and at least some of Apple's products have been flying off the shelves. Add in using AAPL as a proxy for trade deals, and the slow but steady move up in priority to outsiders due to a diversified product mix including services, there are lots of things potentially moving the stock. Upwards!
May that continue, even if we can expect with 100% certainty that there will be movement in both directions.
We have the choice to build this board up, or tear it down. Make the right choice, or don't post here.
To All: Please remember to keep non-Apple SPECIFIC political stuff out of the daily thread. Post it over in the Dungeon, if you really want to discuss it with others on the AAPL Finance Board.
I'm not sure about video content. It just seems so expensive for what kind of net return? To some degree it seems like viewers are insatiable and want unlimited content for cheap. I think it's safe to say that wearables are going to be huge.
Apple made a little noise about Apple TV as a "hobby," in the same way they launched iPod as Mac-only firewire before crushing everyone with iTunes and USB iPod, or 'partnered' with Cingular with the ROKR before crushing with iPhone. I think they decided to join the fray of independent content creation to see what the waters were like. No better market research than get into the market, if you have the deep pockets.
I'm still waiting to see any payoff for the much-ballyhooed 'iBeacons' and Augmented Reality features. Apple Arcade? Apple Books? Apple anything Education? There are a whole lot of non-productive wings dragging behind the Apple juggernaut and it'll be fun to watch if any of them catch up and start producing results.
I'm still waiting to see any payoff for the much-ballyhooed 'iBeacons' and Augmented Reality features.
They could rock the iBeacons thing. I just figured it out.
For Apple products, it's just an extension of what they already have. If you lose your iPhone, you call it off another phone, or iOS device, or Mac OS device. We've slowly gotten used to doing that.
But a Tile type thing is a little different, I believe using bluetooth, and having a battery. At $20+ each, with less than a buck of stuff in it, I think.
But Apple already has all that stuff in their iDevices. It's a freebie, for those that want to use it once "available". Just enable it.
That will make the cost of buying a marker for your other things, like a wallet or keys or even a remote, a lot more palatable.
I don't know. I guess really it will be a hobby, since not that many people will care enough to buy them, and there's not the scale up. Longer term as pricing comes down maybe many things have them. At the same time, maybe AR steps in, watching everything you see, and thus being able to help you out when you go searching for something, helping you find that tool you are looking for, or that bill. "I last saw your paper here".
(EDIT: BTW, it's amazing to me how many people don't use the "find my" feature of the iPhone. My dad misplaced his iPhone this summer when we were on a vacation for my parents 50th Anniversary. We set it up on my mom's iPhone and it was able to show that the iPhone was in fact there in the rental, and then play a sound even though the iPhone was on mute (so calls to it weren't helping). Just a couple days ago, my wife and daughter were at a birthday party while the rest of us were at a cookie exchange party, and I was able to see that she made it back into town. While doing that, a friend saw it, who hadn't used it since tracking a stolen MacBook years ago. Her husband had flown his plane to the other side of the country that day. She pulled him up, and saw that he made it there. It is a great feature and has saved us a lot of "Where are you???" calls. At the same time it could be creepy in the wrong hands, and I'm surprised Apple doesn't show a message when someone pings your location. We probably average using it 1-2 times a week.)
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5