chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 26, 2019 6:48:47 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 26, 2019 6:58:34 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $289.98 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 26, 2019 7:28:52 GMT -8
Congrats Longs! What a wild ride this year. I'm so glad for the shares I bought on margin about a year ago this time for 155 ish. We are definitely being repriced and in my option finally fairly re-priced. MSFT PE is a good compare, (i.e. mature tech company that Wall Street views as a good long term brand) duh - we around here have thought the same about AAPL for years, and it looks as if a multiple expansion to fairly value AAPL has finally come. As tough as the trade war volatility has been, I think long term it has made management consider options outside of China for risk management.
I'm typing this on the new MacBook Pro 16 inch display, with 64 gigs of ram and 8 TB drive. I can say without reserve this is the best laptop from Apple in years. The keyboard is way more responsive and less prone to errors of the much maligned predecessors. And for a power user the finally pro specs in both ram and storage are truly "pro" level if you are willing to pay up. Also the battery life is so much better for only a slightly thicker chassis. A beautiful piece of engineering.
Speaking of trading and investing - also bought some SWKS on margin in the bargain basement BIN a year ago in the 60s and enjoying that recovery as well. but wow, AAPL - truly an amazing recovery - I cracks me up to see people only count the year performance percentage, as us longs know we FELL from the 230s in 2018.
CONGRATS LONGS!!!!
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 26, 2019 7:36:29 GMT -8
Some other thoughts on the year end rally - I imagine there are two main factors in play - year end window dressing from funds - who might have missed some of this run, who want to show it in their portfolios. And major FOMO about missing the 5G "super cycle" - i.e. the run to $350 and general bright prospects for AAPL.
On point two, I'm a bit skeptical about the timing and explosiveness of 5G in general, but markets look ahead. , I'd prefer a slower climb in 2020 on percentage terms. I'd be happy with a year end price for AAPL in the 330-350 range i.e. about a 20% gain. Round numbers tend to be good for backing and filling, and I suspect as we approach the $300 level it will be a place for some profit taking to happen. Also the effect of the buybacks will be less accretive to earnings the more expensive the shares get - so we should really be grateful to management for buying back so many shares when they were so low.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 26, 2019 7:41:35 GMT -8
I see $286.97 at 10:40 so far. $300 keeps getting closer.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 26, 2019 8:26:17 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Dec 26, 2019 8:28:40 GMT -8
2️⃣8️⃣8️⃣🔘4️⃣4️⃣ 🌲🍏🌲🍏🎉
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macster
Member
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Member is Online
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Post by macster on Dec 26, 2019 8:30:26 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 26, 2019 8:33:54 GMT -8
Some other thoughts on the year end rally - I imagine there are two main factors in play - year end window dressing from funds - who might have missed some of this run, who want to show it in their portfolios. And major FOMO about missing the 5G "super cycle" - i.e. the run to $350 and general bright prospects for AAPL. On point two, I'm a bit skeptical about the timing and explosiveness of 5G in general, but markets look ahead. I think that history will repeat itself for 5G. Apple competitors will rush ahead to be first to ship, while Apple will wait as long as it takes to let the infrastructure reach viability and for them to produce fully integrated 5G products that offer their typical quality and ease of use.
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Post by therealmercel on Dec 26, 2019 9:00:29 GMT -8
Congrats to AAPL longs!!! I haven't sold a thing.
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Post by plcm123 on Dec 26, 2019 9:11:36 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it? Well that's what happens to a stock that has been so undervalued for years. AAPL deserves to be at least around $400 by 2021. Cheers to the longs !!!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 26, 2019 9:19:47 GMT -8
I dont' know about you guys, but I am ready for a 6-1 split to get this puppy down to 50 again.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 26, 2019 9:40:37 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Dec 26, 2019 10:06:10 GMT -8
+1000. Cities could balance their budgets by enforcing laws on the books against using smartphones while driving. People can barely drive as it is...
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 26, 2019 10:18:32 GMT -8
Apple moved so fast today, I didn't get to point out some math that I find extremely vindicating. 285.72 X 7 = 2000. Years ago, when everyone I knew was saying "sell" and take profits, I told my accountant Apple is a $1000 stock, and if we wait long enough, it's a $2000 stock. I have a lot of emails about this, including one friend telling me to take profits at $200 (that's a pre-split $200). Hat tip to James Altucher, who first predicted Apple would be a $2000 stock several years ago (I believe it was 2011). Wish I could find that video. Weeee. Cheers to the long-time longs.
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Post by nwjade on Dec 26, 2019 12:04:48 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it? I think the last couple of trading days boils down to a rush by Mutual Funds and ETFs doing window dressing to make Apple part of their portfolios before year end. They need to be able to show Apple, which has had such a stand out performance this year, as part of their holdings and there's a lack of shareholders willing to part with their shares. We may see some selling at the beginning of the new year or not? Hopefully the market doesn't do a repeat of December 2017 / January 2018 becoming too overheated and selling off towards the end of January into the first part of February to the tune of ~11%...
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Post by hyci004 on Dec 26, 2019 12:31:53 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it? I think the last couple of trading days boils down to a rush by Mutual Funds and ETFs doing window dressing to make Apple part of their portfolios before year end. They need to be able to show Apple, which has had such a stand out performance this year, as part of their holdings and there's a lack of shareholders willing to part with their shares. We may see some selling at the beginning of the new year or not? Hopefully the market doesn't do a repeat of December 2017 / January 2018 becoming too overheated and selling off towards the end of January into the first part of February to the tune of ~11%... It seems like there is an uptick in institutional investors with Apple. It’s hovering around 62% at the moment.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 26, 2019 12:47:44 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 26, 2019 12:49:10 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it? Today Apple still trades a tick below the S&P 500 average PE: www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratioSo congrats all, we are finally priced like an average company. In other words, a company that is likely generating ONE BILLION DOLLARS A DAY this quarter is still valued like a government-regulated public utility. BTW I think this rise is more than just ETF rejiggering; everyone is chasing a runaway train and that’s good. Sentiment and Momentum! 📈 I also think we’ll see a sell-off before, not after the 1st. Year end profit taking. 🤷🏻♂️ (I say this based on past experience, not via some spongey TA). If I’m right, be ready to buy some LEAPs around New Year Eve. It’s funny how numbers that seemed so extreme not too long ago are now quite probable (e.g., 300). This is why WS price targets are so ludicrous; who buys AAPL just for one year?
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 26, 2019 12:59:01 GMT -8
As AAPL reaches a P/E similar to compares for "fair P/E" it may be more difficult to rely on the "robust" buybacks. I still think that it was a tell that the dividend was only raised 5% last year vs. the 11% average. Apple thought, and tipped, that AAPL buybacks was going to clearly be the better return strategy. When Apple borrowed another $7B, I took it as another good sign. There is still a whole lot of net cash before becoming cash neutral.
Here is my hope. That Apple will feel very unbridled to do significant buybacks during down periods, as the high value has been marked. So, opportunistically robust with lots of dry powder, and maybe increasing dividends. Maybe some modulation during the inevitable down times?
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 26, 2019 13:08:14 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$289.98All Time Highest TODAY intraday 20,707,016
shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$289.91aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.289 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.289 TRILLION TODAY +$1.289 TRILLION
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 26, 2019 13:19:09 GMT -8
I'm just recalling more than one discussion about the "inevitable" law-of-large-numbers with advisors. That was 10 years ago? I'm still keeping an eye out for that inevitability.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 26, 2019 13:50:33 GMT -8
I'm just recalling more than one discussion about the "inevitable" law-of-large-numbers with advisors. That was 10 years ago? I'm still keeping any eye out for that inveatability. There is no accountability in any area of journalism, and the financial media is no exception. I’d sure love for CNBC to drag some of these know-it-all‘s on and show them their previous dire prognostications. “A lot of people would be poorer today had they listened to you.” Of course, the mantra “buy and hold and never sell” doesn’t fill 12 hours of programming 5 days a week (nor does it generate commissions for investment banks). But I think these loudmouths would be tempered if CNBC would run a chyron below them whenever they appeared “X/X/XXXX: Advised to buy/sell AAPL @ XXX.” Buy and hold and tune out all of the noise. As Buffett says, buy good stocks and don’t even look at them on a daily basis. OK I realize that last part is pretty unrealistic for most of us, but tell your friends to do that. 😜
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 26, 2019 14:40:50 GMT -8
I actually think the opposite - i.e. the small dividend increase last year, was to allow for more $ to be spent on buybacks - now with the shares more expensive to repurchase, I'd like to see a healthier dividend increase - also our yield (even with the new rate) is close to 1% - but yes, the approach to cash neutral and management's plan for that will be interesting to watch - also, how much cap ex buffer might they need for new product categories? Congrats Longs! Yep - window dressing in play but also - big time FOMO on the folks who simply missed the apple boat for SO long. Geez - GOOG has been at a real premium for so long to APPL
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 26, 2019 15:35:31 GMT -8
I’m actually a little embarrassed about this run up. Money doesn’t really grow on trees does it? On the Apple tree it does.
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Post by ericinaustin on Dec 26, 2019 19:04:55 GMT -8
You’re absolutely right here. I forget to remind myself about this sometimes. And of all the companies that deserve an avg. p/e. It’s Apple. Rock solid balance sheet with no sig debt., selling the most important consumer product used in many peoples lives, transitioning to earnings in wearables that may be the biggest growth driver in consumer products over the next 5 years.
I’m getting to the point where it is such a major part of my net worth that I think I must diversify more but tell me a better choice based on just the Graham Dodd value fundamentals and you have my attention. But for the life of me I just can’t find it.
I thought a Vegas meet up was a good idea for two hundred but three hundred...... I’m thinking VEGAS BABY! I’m ( or rather Tim Cook’s) buying the first round.
Eric in Austin
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