Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Dec 27, 2019 4:37:36 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 27, 2019 5:49:42 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 27, 2019 6:34:50 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $293.97 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Dec 27, 2019 7:24:33 GMT -8
From the link above: "Apple, one of the best-performing stocks this year, is also the name that analysts have been the most wrong about in their forecasts." May be one of the most truthful statements that CNBC has ever made.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Dec 27, 2019 9:17:58 GMT -8
In a blog post Friday, Gene Munster, managing partner at Loup Ventures, called Apple stock his pick to be the "top performing FAANG stock in 2020." FAANG is an acronym for a group of tech giants, including Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple, Netflix (NFLX) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL).
"When compared to other tech and services companies, we consider the fair value for AAPL to be $350-$400," Munster said. "We believe the base case of $350 (21% upside) is achievable in 2020 and $400 (38% upside) is achievable sometime in 2021."
|
|
|
Post by elmar on Dec 27, 2019 9:48:45 GMT -8
"When compared to other tech and services companies, we consider the fair value for AAPL to be $350-$400," Munster said. "We believe the base case of $350 (21% upside) is achievable in 2020 and $400 (38% upside) is achievable sometime in 2021." I do agree with munster and if we are talking about tops during the next two years I think he is even somewhat conservative. But there will be ups and downs on the way and since I have sold some on the way up I am actually looking for the next buying opportunity. 😉 Cheers to the “longs”
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 27, 2019 10:01:46 GMT -8
Price targets are silly, of course, because none of us are holding for just a year. But like the quarterly Kabuki of beat-the-street's made up numbers, it helps move the stock along in the short term.
CNBC makes me think about an old Johnny Carson gag. One of his jokes bombed, the audience grumbled, and he gave the audience a surly look, and said,
"Look, I've gotta fill 90 minutes a night."
Honestly, is anyone here going to liquidate their AAPL holdings one year from now?
Where will we be in 5 years?
|
|
|
Post by plcm123 on Dec 27, 2019 10:06:34 GMT -8
So it's reasonable to say that AAPL will grow on the average of 20% at least in the next 10 years.
Eventually I see Apple releasing several models of the Airpod.
The free basic model that comes with iPhone, the noise cancellation feature model, health function feature model, etc...
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Dec 27, 2019 11:17:43 GMT -8
So it's reasonable to say that AAPL will grow on the average of 20% at least in the next 10 years. Eventually I see Apple releasing several models of the Airpod. The free basic model that comes with iPhone, the noise cancellation feature model, health function feature model, etc... Not unreasonable, but certainly optimistic. Having/keeping the new (hopefully not fleeting) P/E sentiment, the market CAGR expectations likely are 15%. The free (without growth) net cash-flow and return of the net cash - dividends and buybacks - gets us to about 8%. To a Happy New Year! Mimosas for all.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Dec 27, 2019 11:25:08 GMT -8
From the link above: "Apple, one of the best-performing stocks this year, is also the name that analysts have been the most wrong about in their forecasts." May be one of the most truthful statements that CNBC has ever made.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Dec 27, 2019 11:27:18 GMT -8
"Apple, one of the best-performing stocks this year, is also the name that analysts have been the most wrong about in their forecasts." May be one of the most truthful statements that CNBC has ever made. Cramer their star and Minister of Propaganda said at the dip in June to 169 to wait until 140 to buy Apple or add shares. I am sure he now saying I never said to trade Apple only to own it. People who have such platforms are dangerous. Young people could have added shares at any time and done well over the next 20 years. That is my point.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Dec 27, 2019 11:30:56 GMT -8
I intend to beat the drum for a split until it happens. If we had not had the 7-1 split, we would be at 2000 per share now. I think that would seriously reduce the number of potential buyers. Somehow investing $20,000 to buy 10 shares of Apple to produce $60 a year just doesn't seem all that exciting even given the potential for it to grow to$30,000 over the next year. Besides, how many people have $20,000 sitting in their bank account now? We all saw what happened to the stock after the last split. It shot up 50% between when the split was announced and when it happened. I do not see a downside to a split. It doesn't affect being cash neutral. The biggest effect would be on the amount paid out in dividends. Perhaps anticipation of a split is the reason or the paltry increase in dividends last April. I think 6-1 has a nice feel to it. It could be a very interesting 6 months ahead
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 27, 2019 13:12:42 GMT -8
Typical Friday close, options dump.
I don’t care how “low” open interest is when AAPL 📉’s every Friday.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 27, 2019 13:32:46 GMT -8
Cramer has to fill 60 minutes a day. So yeah he’ll say some contradictory things, bloviating incessantly. But he’s an AAPL 🐂. Harder to fill a 60-minute show by repeating, “I have no idea where this stock will go in the short term and Apple chatter is all white noise and everyone should just buy and hold it.”
I’m all for a split. It’s not just the logic of people being able to afford more shares; large stock numbers scare people. As I’ve said before, anyone think we’d be sitting at 16,240 right now with no splits? I’ve mentioned that I have a math prof friend who said “Apple is expensive” when its PE was like 16. 😂
Beware the Law of morons on CNBC spouting large numbers™.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 27, 2019 13:47:37 GMT -8
Typical Friday close, options dump. I don’t care how “low” open interest is when AAPL 📉’s every Friday. But the OI was low 😀 Ok, really I have no clue what the open interest was, nor how much it mattered. We’re away visiting the relatives, though it is nice to keep seeing new ATHs. While it’s tempting to sell a little more, I am happy we are still holding all but a few percent of what we had a couple months ago. Wow, it’s been a ride! Today, given our disconnect with the market, I’m surprised the volume was so high. That likely made for the 5 point spread, someone trying to buy a bunch for year end posturing while most weren’t ready to sell. But looking at the list of 32 items on my iPhone stock list, the only things to gain or lose a whole % today we’re the Vix, and a penny stock mining company. Snow on the hills here in socal. I’d rather a couple 70 degree days, but at least the citrus trees are loaded.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 27, 2019 13:47:42 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 27, 2019 13:50:01 GMT -8
It shows the whole article when clicked thru on the iPhone in the stocks app ... EDIT Ok, nothing much of interest. It pointed out brka, amzn, and goog all have higher cost per share. But it’s a psychological thing, and I wonder if being more aggressive on splits would have kept AAPL a little closer to the marker p/e valuations. They finished with “ While mathematically there is no reason splits should matter, shareholders often like them—and for psychological reasons, they tend to drive up stock prices”
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Dec 27, 2019 14:39:25 GMT -8
I didn't see this barrons article, but I am glad others are thinking this way
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 27, 2019 15:57:30 GMT -8
Thanks for the tip on the stocks app, 4aapl. The story contained this jaw-dropping fact:
”Other tech companies seem to be following the no-split model followed by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), which currently trades at $339,288 a share.”
Dave, could you fix the title for today’s thread? Thanks
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Dec 27, 2019 18:58:24 GMT -8
Thanks for the tip on the stocks app, 4aapl. The story contained this jaw-dropping fact: ”Other tech companies seem to be following the no-split model followed by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), which currently trades at $339,288 a share.” Dave, could you fix the title for today’s thread? Thanks I did this morning after you alerted me to my brain fart.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 28, 2019 11:09:13 GMT -8
Thanks for the tip on the stocks app, 4aapl. The story contained this jaw-dropping fact: ”Other tech companies seem to be following the no-split model followed by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), which currently trades at $339,288 a share.” Um, does that author not know that Berkshire Hathaway added a B class of shares for this very reason? BRK-B is trading at $226. And of course BRK is more like an ETF than an individual stock.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 28, 2019 14:52:33 GMT -8
Thanks for the tip on the stocks app, 4aapl. The story contained this jaw-dropping fact: ”Other tech companies seem to be following the no-split model followed by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), which currently trades at $339,288 a share.” Um, does that author not know that Berkshire Hathaway added a B class of shares for this very reason? BRK-B is trading at $226. And of course BRK is more like an ETF than an individual stock. Thanks for the additional information, JD. Call me clueless, I guess, but other than AAPL we let professionals manage our investments. Our management of AAPL consists of collecting dividends, and lately a lot of cheering.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Dec 28, 2019 17:10:20 GMT -8
Um, does that author not know that Berkshire Hathaway added a B class of shares for this very reason? BRK-B is trading at $226. And of course BRK is more like an ETF than an individual stock. Thanks for the additional information, JD. Call me clueless, I guess, but other than AAPL we let professionals manage our investments. Wait...there are investments *other* than AAPL? Our management of AAPL consists of collecting dividends, and lately a lot of cheering. Now that's the kind of management for which AAPL Longs are well suited.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 28, 2019 20:13:54 GMT -8
Wait...there are investments *other* than AAPL? I think our progression was fairly typical. We started with IRA deductions from our salaries when our sons were young; those have always been professionally managed. Fabulous Spouse started mandatory withdrawals this year, and I’ll be following soon. Once our sons were on their own, and our salaries had naturally grown over the years, we had more discretionary income, and that’s when our investment in AAPL began, spurred by the early success of iPhone. We never imagined that the returns would be as spectacular as they have been, and the resumption of dividends was just icing on the cake. I wish that we could claim some investing insight, but it was mostly just following our hearts. I give AFB some credit for providing support during times like the recent dive to 140.
|
|