Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2020 4:01:00 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2020 4:21:23 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2020 4:34:10 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2020 6:59:37 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2020 7:44:25 GMT -8
Well, it looks like Verizon in my area is at least preparing for 5G. My iMac finds a 5G cousin of my usual connection, but there is just about no difference in performance at this point. FiOS-Z1-WOB FiOS-Z1-WOB-5G
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2020 8:33:20 GMT -8
It's scary when someone can see no bear case. Likewise, it's interesting to see Katy's probabilities on things, with only a 23.8% probability of the base case of $368 (or greater...+16.74%) in a year. 1.2% of the bull case or greater. 5.8% of the bear case or lower. At the same time, that fake precision is laughable, not laudable. WTF! Significant digits...it's a thing. Don't let a guess at a butterfly's flap in China dictate any sort of precision at a great scale. There's some chance of a local or global economic slowdown. But there's also a chance of a lot of other things that would negatively affect AAPL, including a more localized slowdown in sales (as China had last year), or a fire or natural disaster at anything in the production line, from design, a part supplier, or final assembly. But while an insurance agent might be able to put a figure on something like that, it's hard to put too much precision on it. There is a chance, but without enough statistical comparisons, there is some guessing. It's always just a little sad to see AAPL in the red, but it helps to remember that the bar was set high on Friday, one cent below the newly set ATH. In that case, being down just a little while setting a new ATH today isn't half bad. Let's have a great week!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 21, 2020 8:36:27 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $319.02 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Jan 21, 2020 10:14:23 GMT -8
It's scary when someone can see no bear case. Likewise, it's interesting to see Katy's probabilities on things, with only a 23.8% probability of the base case of $368 (or greater...+16.74%) in a year. 1.2% of the bull case or greater. 5.8% of the bear case or lower. At the same time, that fake precision is laughable, not laudable. WTF! Significant digits...it's a thing. Don't let a guess at a butterfly's flap in China dictate any sort of precision at a great scale. There's some chance of a local or global economic slowdown. But there's also a chance of a lot of other things that would negatively affect AAPL, including a more localized slowdown in sales (as China had last year), or a fire or natural disaster at anything in the production line, from design, a part supplier, or final assembly. But while an insurance agent might be able to put a figure on something like that, it's hard to put too much precision on it. There is a chance, but without enough statistical comparisons, there is some guessing. It's always just a little sad to see AAPL in the red, but it helps to remember that the bar was set high on Friday, one cent below the newly set ATH. In that case, being down just a little while setting a new ATH today isn't half bad. Let's have a great week! I am glad you mentioned false precision. I have a lot of respect for Huberty, but I think her approach in assessing risks is mis-guided. Most of the factors that are well identified enough to affect the stocks are not large enough to move the needle to the point that really concerns the long term investor. Even if an analyst could compile a comprehensive list of factors and accurately estimate how each factor would impact the stock, they could not account for the interaction between factors. Given these limitations, it is ludicrous to supply estimates to a fraction of a percent. The kind of events that would affect most of us are "Black Swans" like a discovery that cell phones cause brain cancer, or a world wide financial collapse or hyperinflation. I prefer to take a different approach to risk. I think of Apple as a system of components. It is almost like an organism that consumes investment and customer dollars, producing profit and equity and taxes. When viewed as a system, we are not limited to saying, "What are the risks to the system?" we can ask instead," How resilient is the system". We don't conduct our lives by trying to compute the risk of accidents and disease to a fraction of a percentage, we just try to keep our resistance up and be careful stepping off the curb. Looking at Apple, I think there is an astounding capacity to react to threats. However the technology evolves, Apple has the ability to pivot to meet it. I don't know what the threats will be, and I don't have to know, at least not to a tenth of a percent
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2020 10:58:02 GMT -8
Good to see Tim Apple mingling at Davos and chatting up the president. Trump attending dinner with Apple's cook and other CEOsIf true, the lack of iCloud encryption is a major privacy fail and a huge capitulation. It's a great reason not to subscribe to iCloud and do local backups. FFS what's the point of phone encryption if there's an unencrypted backup out on some server somewhere? I'm going to cancel my monthly iCloud and do backups locally.
This is exactly why the cloud is a bad idea in general. It's an act of faith that your data is secure, and if Apple isn't securing it, who is? A huge blow to Tim's outspoken privacy positions. Edit: I just deleted my iCloud backups. Going to save locally on a secure (Windows!) encrypted machine. Drudge is running the iCloud (non-)encryption article. It's a torpedo hit and Tim needs to address it.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2020 11:33:48 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2020 13:11:45 GMT -8
Well, at least todays action brought the RSI down a little. 74.62
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2020 14:36:13 GMT -8
Well, at least todays action brought the RSI down a little. 74.62 The market doesn't like uncertainty. It looks like most things, except Tesla and Amazon, stepped back a little today. Uncertainty can come from a lot of things. I've mitigated the ice at the edge of our roof, but in Florida you have to watch for falling iguanas, which can be up to 20 lbs. That's a new one! www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/weather/miami-freeze-falling-iguana-forecast-trnd/index.html
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Jan 21, 2020 20:02:34 GMT -8
|
|