Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2020 3:49:07 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2020 4:20:36 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2020 7:03:03 GMT -8
AAPL has/is on a great run right now and I truly hope that the quote from Jerry Doyle and his prediction of $400 materializes. But I also remember all of the predictions of 2012 and how that ended in disaster. Many investors lost their shirts and never recovered, I still have the scars. If I recall correctly, there were predictions in the $750- $1000 range (pre-split). There was a bad earnings report and the balloon burst. I'm not saying that history is going to repeat, but the possibility is always there. I try to always remember that Confirmation bias may not be my friend.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jan 23, 2020 8:27:28 GMT -8
Thanks for starting the thread Dave.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 23, 2020 11:02:49 GMT -8
So PED has his What to expect from Apple’s Q1 results and Q2 guidanceWhile I appreciate PED's tracking of this ritual, I've said many times how much contempt I have for this (blind) dart-throwing competition every 90 days, especially the amateurs (which Dave's reference to the permabulls today coincidentally made me think about). Remember, these "independents" and their high biases are right until they're not. Just the fact that Sponge of all people has won this Special Olympics more than once should tell you all you need to know about the absurdity of it. "Modeling," LOL. It's like congratulating the winner of a palm reading contest. Look, we're all long-term bullish on AAPL or we wouldn't be in it. But let's not lose the perspective that Apple could easily miss these mostly made-up targets in any given quarter and we'd all take a brokerage haircut (the really bad kind, like that hot blonde chick from Big Bang Theory did to herself). I can only hope that Tim and Luca have decided that they will beat the ANALyst's at their own game, and they just set up beats every quarter by low-balling guidance. The fact that they stopped reporting iPhone sales lends credence to this theory. This might sound like serenity prayer territory, like complaining about the weather. But IIRC, there was a movement recently to change reporting to once a year. And I think Tim and every other CEO and CFO would prefer to report once a year instead of quarterly. IMO, it's a great example of regulators thinking they know best, when in reality, most investors would prefer less reporting than more. At least I'd risk a heart attack once a year instead of four times!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 23, 2020 12:14:03 GMT -8
So PED has his What to expect from Apple’s Q1 results and Q2 guidanceWhile I appreciate PED's tracking of this ritual, I've said many times how much contempt I have for this (blind) dart-throwing competition every 90 days, especially the amateurs (which Dave's reference to the permabulls today coincidentally made me think about). Remember, these "independents" and their high biases are right until they're not. Just the fact that Sponge of all people has won this Special Olympics more than once should tell you all you need to know about the absurdity of it. "Modeling," LOL. It's like congratulating the winner of a palm reading contest. Look, we're all long-term bullish on AAPL or we wouldn't be in it. But let's not lose the perspective that Apple could easily miss these mostly made-up targets in any given quarter and we'd all take a brokerage haircut (the really bad kind, like that hot blonde chick from Big Bang Theory did to herself). I can only hope that Tim and Luca have decided that they will beat the ANALyst's at their own game, and they just set up beats every quarter by low-balling guidance. The fact that they stopped reporting iPhone sales lends credence to this theory. This might sound like serenity prayer territory, like complaining about the weather. But IIRC, there was a movement recently to change reporting to once a year. And I think Tim and every other CEO and CFO would prefer to report once a year instead of quarterly. IMO, it's a great example of regulators thinking they know best, when in reality, most investors would prefer less reporting than more. At least I'd risk a heart attack once a year instead of four times!
I think Box had it right when he said, "All models are wrong, some are useful". a model can be as simple as an equation or a spreadsheet or can be extremely sophisticated simulations. I made a living building models of industrial processes that could predict operations. The models were used in several $50 million decisions and proved to be correct. I didn't charge them even half of that. Still, I have to agree that most of the modeling we see in financial analysis is pretty rudimentary and is more of a guess. A critical step in any model development is validation. Before I gave credence to any model, I would look at this step very carefully. BTW, J.D. your new avatar is making me read your posts in an entirely different light. I clearly had developed a bias.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2020 13:14:13 GMT -8
So PED has his What to expect from Apple’s Q1 results and Q2 guidanceWhile I appreciate PED's tracking of this ritual, I've said many times how much contempt I have for this (blind) dart-throwing competition every 90 days, especially the amateurs (which Dave's reference to the permabulls today coincidentally made me think about). Remember, these "independents" and their high biases are right until they're not. Just the fact that Sponge of all people has won this Special Olympics more than once should tell you all you need to know about the absurdity of it. "Modeling," LOL. It's like congratulating the winner of a palm reading contest. Look, we're all long-term bullish on AAPL or we wouldn't be in it. But let's not lose the perspective that Apple could easily miss these mostly made-up targets in any given quarter and we'd all take a brokerage haircut (the really bad kind, like that hot blonde chick from Big Bang Theory did to herself). I can only hope that Tim and Luca have decided that they will beat the ANALyst's at their own game, and they just set up beats every quarter by low-balling guidance. The fact that they stopped reporting iPhone sales lends credence to this theory. This might sound like serenity prayer territory, like complaining about the weather. But IIRC, there was a movement recently to change reporting to once a year. And I think Tim and every other CEO and CFO would prefer to report once a year instead of quarterly. IMO, it's a great example of regulators thinking they know best, when in reality, most investors would prefer less reporting than more. At least I'd risk a heart attack once a year instead of four times!
I'd swear I wrote part of that post. As I've said before, I feel another part of it is the safety factor. Does an independent put in a safety factor, at all. Or do they always round up, and then just go for it. What's the downside? Conversely, I feel that a "professional" has a slight obligation to back off, at least just a little. It's like The Price is Right, you lose if you go over, even by a penny. (did Penny cut her hair, or were you into the short Bernadette?) So when Apple beats expectations, the independents again and again look wonderful. But put in a little misstep, and they get hit, hard. AAPL up a buck 53 for the day. Looking at trucks, it's hard to not think of a country song to go with it, Yeti and all. No new ATH for the day, but I'll take a highest all-time-close. It will be interesting to see how things go into earnings and beyond. With all these new ATH's, it seems that the bar is being set pretty high, not just on upcoming earnings being amazing, but also the coming year. It's never a straight line forever, and the question is if a step back will be a minimal $10, a $30-$50 retrace, or something even bigger. Oh, and when. Such pesky little details, all while on the march to $400, and beyond!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 23, 2020 15:47:12 GMT -8
A couple of bonus thoughts that I won't charge for today. WRT Apple Watch connecting to my gym, no thanks. I don't even use my gym's wifi, because they want to track me and send me ads. Every time I go to the gym, it reminds me to finally start building my home gym. Lordy, just the horrors I see in the bathroom makes me suffer PTSD. Some crying on the whinosphere about big mean Apple taking a hard line in supplier negotiations. This is no news to me, which is why I always laugh when the CNBC bozos tout Apple suppliers as a "derivative play" on Apple. Some of you may remember the sapphire company in Arizona that leaked its Apple deal. Tough negotiations are part of business, and if you don't like it, go do business with a loser company. And would you invest in a company whose CEO spent your money like a drunken sailor? The EU is doing what it was intended to do, and that's to stand up to, and shake down, the USA and its companies (this is why if you are pro-America you should be pro-Brexit). It's a total gang mentality (I'm not blaming them; they are acting exactly as one would expect, but we're the target of the gang). The entire point of the EU was to act as a counterweight to the US (Tony Blair's words, not mine. EDIT: I think it might have been Jacques "the Worm" Chirac). First the tax and anti-trust shakedowns, now it's charging cables. Camel's nose under the tent, people. They say it's all for the environment. Well that's what they'll say when they try to levy a big carbon tax on Apple. Shakedown, pure and simple. Steve said in an old interview that Apple doesn't like consultants, because they have no skin in the game, no consequences for the outcomes. They come in, make recommendations, and split, leaving the company to implement said advice and suffer the effects. This is exactly what is wrong with regulators. EU regulators are particularly bad, because at least US regulatory agencies are theoretically looking out for the American people. Well, last time Europe tried to tax us without representation, we shot them.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2020 19:52:52 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$319.99All Time Highest Wednesday, January 22, 2020 intraday 26,117,993
shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$319.23aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.400 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.400 TRILLION TODAY +$1.400 TRILLION
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