Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 31, 2020 4:05:19 GMT -8
Good Friday morning. The first month of the year comes to a end and what a month it has been. The pre-market is red, but let’s see if we can end this day in green.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 31, 2020 4:33:01 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 31, 2020 7:03:15 GMT -8
On some days we have sunshine and on some days we have rain. Hopefully before the end of this trading day the clouds will clear and we will have sunshine again. I like sunshine.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 31, 2020 7:53:57 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls.
Under 310 and I'll BTFD.
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Post by silkstone on Jan 31, 2020 7:56:45 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls. Under 310 and I'll BTFD. Well, you don’t know how big this coronavirus thing is gonna get so be careful.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 31, 2020 8:35:43 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls. Under 310 and I'll BTFD. Well, you don’t know how big this coronavirus thing is gonna get so be careful. Buying small. Bought 10 Apr 350s @ 3.80. Will buy max 50 if it falls below 2.50.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 31, 2020 8:39:12 GMT -8
Well, you don’t know how big this coronavirus thing is gonna get so be careful. Buying small. Bought 10 Apr 350s @ 3.80. Will buy max 50 if it falls below 2.50. And, also bought 10 Jun 2022 leaps @ 14.50.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 31, 2020 10:33:41 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis. They LOVE it. Scary death virus is great for ratings. In all of the United states, there are 6 confirmed cases, *one* of which was actually transmitted from person to person inside the country. A wife gave it to her husband. That's it. A single case, and idiots are walking around all over with masks. You're a billion times more likely to die in a car accident driving to the store to buy a mask. I realize that what's going on in China is different. But the markets are acting like this is Walking Dead. BTFD (instead of masks)!
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 31, 2020 11:24:47 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis ... BTFD (instead of masks)!🤣🤣 JD - You've been on a roll lately. Great posts - insights, humor and all 👍
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Post by duckpins on Jan 31, 2020 12:15:48 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis. They LOVE it. Scary death virus is great for ratings. In all of the United states, there are 6 confirmed cases, *one* of which was actually transmitted from person to person inside the country. A wife gave it to her husband. That's it. A single case, and idiots are walking around all over with masks. You're a billion times more likely to die in a car accident driving to the store to buy a mask. I realize that what's going on in China is different. But the markets are acting like this is Walking Dead. BTFD (instead of masks)! Volatility serves the interest of GS. "The deal will give the independent Japanese investment manager effective control of the liquid crystal display (LCD) maker with a 44.26% stake initially, replacing the Japanese government-backed INCJ fund as the top shareholder. The bailout comes as Apple, which sources LCD panels for iPhones from Japan Display, has shown its commitment to financially support Japan Display, which sources said reassured other investors. (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; editing by David Evans)" I don't see why Apple is messing with these inferior displays. OLED is a hundred times better.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2020 12:17:53 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis. They LOVE it. Scary death virus is great for ratings. In all of the United states, there are 6 confirmed cases, *one* of which was actually transmitted from person to person inside the country. A wife gave it to her husband. That's it. A single case, and idiots are walking around all over with masks. You're a billion times more likely to die in a car accident driving to the store to buy a mask. I realize that what's going on in China is different. But the markets are acting like this is Walking Dead. BTFD (instead of masks)! Story yesterday, probably on CNN, talked of the bug that already infected 15M in the US this year, and killed 7800. And that's Influenza, the standard Flu. Offhand, and not caring about how China might report things differently than the US, the death rate is something like 40 or 45 TIMES higher. Like 2.2%, vs .05%. But sub-200 deaths globally so far (EDIT, now saying over 200), vs 7800 just in the US. Small potatoes....so far. My boss at Apple was freaked out by SARS at the time. Some people are freaked out about this. It's something to watch out for, but thus far it's not the end of the world, even if grandpa called a few days ago telling us to stock up on food. Hmmmm
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Jan 31, 2020 12:54:43 GMT -8
The problem is that China is where Apple manufactures most of its products. If sick people can’t go to work then iPhones don’t go out the doors. Not good.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2020 13:45:23 GMT -8
A buck down here, a buck down there, and at some point you're talking a decent chunk of change.
Of course I'd prefer AAPL to only go UP UP UP. Sometimes it doesn't. It would have been nice to pass 330 or so before dipping back a little. Looks like that's not how it is going to play out this time.
Have a great weekend all!
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Jan 31, 2020 13:49:01 GMT -8
The problem is that China is where Apple manufactures most of its products. If sick people can’t go to work then iPhones don’t go out the doors. Not good. Exactly! Cook has already said that this quarter past that Apple was supply constrained for several of their products.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 31, 2020 14:01:18 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis. They LOVE it. Scary death virus is great for ratings. In all of the United states, there are 6 confirmed cases, *one* of which was actually transmitted from person to person inside the country. A wife gave it to her husband. That's it. A single case, and idiots are walking around all over with masks. You're a billion times more likely to die in a car accident driving to the store to buy a mask. I realize that what's going on in China is different. But the markets are acting like this is Walking Dead. BTFD (instead of masks)! Agree ! The flu kills many more people.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 31, 2020 14:10:26 GMT -8
Guys if you ask a public health or statistics expert, this coronavirus is way overblown. It’s not just about number of deaths; it’s how fast the virus can propagate before dying off. The numbers I’ve seen compared to like SARS is way lower. Way overblown. Our supply chain will be fine, chillax.
Stocks are on sale. I nibbled on some AAPL options.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 31, 2020 14:31:55 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls. Under 310 and I'll BTFD. so did you? it's under 310
i removed most of my hedges today.... the results were stronger than expected so i was looking for a way to shed the hedges, and the virus panic provided that
....that said, good luck with those 350s - too risky for me (hard to comprehend that a little more than a year ago i was loading up at $155)
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 31, 2020 14:40:53 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls. Under 310 and I'll BTFD. so did you? it's under 310
i removed most of my hedges today.... the results were stronger than expected so i was looking for a way to shed the hedges, and the virus panic provided that
....that said, good luck with those 350s - too risky for me (hard to comprehend that a little more than a year ago i was loading up at $155)
also..... i rarely look at the chart (where sponge when you need him... by the way, where's sponge? my trading's not same without him.... but i digress) i rarely look at the chart, but right now the upper bollie is $327.96 (a few cents above the intraday ATH from where it bounced earlier this week) and the lower bollie is $297.03 and rising... rsi is also not exactly low at 53
so i'd consider around 300 the real BTFD area... maybe it can get there monday with another big-scary-virus day? i'm ready! $$$
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 31, 2020 15:11:35 GMT -8
Anybody BTD? I bought some Apr 350 calls. Under 310 and I'll BTFD. so did you? it's under 310 i removed most of my hedges today.... the results were stronger than expected so i was looking for a way to shed the hedges, and the virus panic provided that ....that said, good luck with those 350s - too risky for me (hard to comprehend that a little more than a year ago i was loading up at $155)
My bid of 3.60 for another 10 of those Jun 2022s almost got there but didn't get filled. I have new orders in for those and also the 350s which'll get filled if we fall to 304-305. If if we hit 295, I'll put in 50 grand. Then it's sit back and watch.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 31, 2020 15:46:40 GMT -8
If if we hit 295, I'll put in 50 grand. Then it's sit back and watch. fifty grand?! nearly had a nervous breakdown hyperventilating in that car..... ah the memories!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 31, 2020 18:32:36 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2020 19:21:24 GMT -8
If if we hit 295, I'll put in 50 grand. Then it's sit back and watch. fifty grand?! nearly had a nervous breakdown hyperventilating in that car..... ah the memories!
Oh walter! It's so easy to play fast and loose when you don't feel you have anything to lose. I bet he would have played Russian Roulette for that same 50k, maybe even a few times in a row. Bring It! It's all risk/reward, and not necessarily based on a percent of overall portfolio. These days I'd probably put the same $50k limit that dreamraj is talking about, not that it would change things much one way or the other, but that it's still a decent size chunk to have just disappear if the whole global economy thing doesn't play out the way I see it, on the same time scale that I see it. Really, if I didn't see any value in that amount, it would make sense to send it to the food back where they claim they can give 3 meals for a buck, or the local trail building group that can do 3-4 miles of trail with that amount. An options play, that seems like it should end up positive, and could go as high as 5x, is nice. But there's always some risk in there. It's when you get sloppy with asset allocation or risk assessment at the end of a long run while at a euphoric high, that if the tide turns you get slapped down a little bit more.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 1, 2020 5:19:13 GMT -8
Ugh, thus coronavirus is just a media-created crisis. They LOVE it. Scary death virus is great for ratings. In all of the United states, there are 6 confirmed cases, *one* of which was actually transmitted from person to person inside the country. A wife gave it to her husband. That's it. A single case, and idiots are walking around all over with masks. You're a billion times more likely to die in a car accident driving to the store to buy a mask. I realize that what's going on in China is different. But the markets are acting like this is Walking Dead. BTFD (instead of masks)! Time will tell; we are still in the very early stages of this disease. How many has AIDS killed since 60 Minutes first reported the very early stages of the disease in the early '80s? How many people did influenza kill during the WWI era? The answer is millions for both. The issue here is not so much sales of Apple trinkets in China as it is the supply chain. By the way, yesterday I did my part to prop the stock by ordering a $6,000 MacBook Pro. That should spur the stock Monday by 10 points.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 1, 2020 5:34:01 GMT -8
I would urge you all to be careful here. Yes, looking at this with my doctor glasses on, this is very much overblown (unless the Chinese government and others are concealing something). When all is said and done, this virus will infect and claim the lives of a fraction of what influenza does even in the most mild seasons in the US. Influenza incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the US are fairly accurately tracked because of the severity of symptoms with every case. People seek care because they are truly ill. And people seek care because there is a treatment which reduces the severity and and duration of symptoms. With coronaviruses, most cases will be mild. Like a common cold. It's not an apples to apples comparison. And anyone touting the 2-3% mortality rate of this new coronavirus is being disingenuous. With all of that said, the economic impact here is real. Tens of millions quarantined. Borders closed. Travel shut off. Businesses shutting down. This will pass, but this is revenue lost forever from the world's second largest economy. www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-apple/apple-to-close-all-china-mainland-stores-due-to-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN1ZV3F5
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 1, 2020 11:46:54 GMT -8
With coronaviruses, most cases will be mild. Like a common cold. It's not an apples to apples comparison. And anyone touting the 2-3% mortality rate of this new coronavirus is being disingenuous. Thanks Appledoc What's your reading or opinion on a mortality rate, or how it compares to one of the standard strains of the Flu? The 2.2% I put out there was just simple division based on the numbers China put out (as of maybe 2 days ago), but like I mentioned you can't necessarily compare that to something else, if you don't know the comparison of how the numbers are reported. Especially when dealing with a different countries statistics. Personally, while I've had the Flu before (2-3 years ago it actually hit some of the family hard, much more than the run of the mill sickness), I've never been to a doctor about it or been tested. But I figure it's still there in the statistics, somehow. Just like TV watching, it's calculated from a smaller subset. They don't send everyone two one dollar bills (we were randomly selected, and did their survey a couple years ago).
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2020 16:58:37 GMT -8
With ‘all’ Apple stores and offices getting closed till Feb 9, it looks like AAPL will go on sale this week.
Regarding my buying of calls, I’m glad I was doing it in parts. Around 290 would be a pretty safe bet to load up on leaps.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 2, 2020 17:12:30 GMT -8
I would urge you all to be careful here. Yes, looking at this with my doctor glasses on, this is very much overblown (unless the Chinese government and others are concealing something). When all is said and done, this virus will infect and claim the lives of a fraction of what influenza does even in the most mild seasons in the US. Influenza incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the US are fairly accurately tracked because of the severity of symptoms with every case. People seek care because they are truly ill. And people seek care because there is a treatment which reduces the severity and and duration of symptoms. With coronaviruses, most cases will be mild. Like a common cold. It's not an apples to apples comparison. And anyone touting the 2-3% mortality rate of this new coronavirus is being disingenuous. With all of that said, the economic impact here is real. Tens of millions quarantined. Borders closed. Travel shut off. Businesses shutting down. This will pass, but this is revenue lost forever from the world's second largest economy. www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-apple/apple-to-close-all-china-mainland-stores-due-to-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN1ZV3F5Is it "revenue lost forever"? Yes there will be a short term impact to supply from, and demand in, China... but it seems more like revenue deferred. When the quarantines are lifted, people will still need phones...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2020 10:04:05 GMT -8
Is it "revenue lost forever"? Yes there will be a short term impact to supply from, and demand in, China... but it seems more like revenue deferred. When the quarantines are lifted, people will still need phones... Home delivery? Maybe this is a good reason for drone delivery, especially with a touch of UV sanitation between deliveries.
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