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Post by terps530 on Jan 6, 2013 13:53:51 GMT -8
I am going to start a blog that exposes this king of crap. All I am going to do is post the offending article, with a follow up of facts. I'm looking for a blog name that immediately identifies its purpose. Any ideas? A Twitter account along with a Facebook page should do it. For starters I think I should include just about anyone that appears, or speaks about Apple on CNBC, analysts that are horribly wrong (3 Standard Deviations off of actual results), and purveyors of unsubstantiated (later found to be false) rumors. I am going to need help locating the articles. Anyone want to help as sources? Aapl specific? Or just bad analysts/reports in general. 'Cut the craapl' The guy on cnbc Friday who was saying aapl is going to 425 could be a good start. I forget his name though..
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 13:55:35 GMT -8
P/E has proven to be a worthless factor when trying to determine the fair valuation of a company. We've spent the entire quarter at historic lows. Let P/E go. This makes no sense to me, the p/e is the valuation of the company divided by the earnings. Discount if you want to. The p/e has history on its side over theories. When I hear heads of mutli-billion dollar hedge funds/mutual funds/economist/etc..... talk about p/e's, I doubt I am going to just discard it. It is a measuring stick. One that will be sorted out in 2 weeks.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 6, 2013 14:19:48 GMT -8
I'd love for Apple to buy the Waze app. I love the integration of a live maps service with people inputting traffic observations in real time. I've had the app since the 4S launched, and it's never failed me. If Apple expanded and intertwined it somehow into their iOS universe, I think it could be really cool. There are a few problems with this. First off, I should say that waze is one of my favorite apps, definitely in my top-5 all-time list. However, the primary value of waze is its users - and that includes users on platforms other than iOS. I'm not sure how Apple could purchase it and continue to supply Android devices with the app (and updates) and the data that makes the app valuable. And if Apple doesn't continue to support Android, the value of the app goes down because fewer users = less data = less valuable. It's a kind of catch-22. Nope. Integrating Waze into Apple Maps will provide a much larger userbase than currently exists. Most people have never even heard of Waze, let alone use it. The userbase and functionality will increase while locking Android out in one fell swoop. Think Siri before and after Apple bought it.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 6, 2013 15:04:42 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 6, 2013 15:09:44 GMT -8
I agree. I would gladly take their averages and average earnings.....a bit higher than mine...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 15:18:05 GMT -8
That's a very interesting estimate from Braeburn - quite conservative.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 15:21:12 GMT -8
If I had to guess, it was the ATT number which was the single most discouraging aspect of unit sales.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 15:27:39 GMT -8
That's a very interesting estimate from Braeburn - quite conservative. It is and it isn't. It represents apples-to-apples YOY growth of over 45% in a transition quarter that had more shipping weeks than iPhone 4S, but also represents what I bet is a much tougher tooling/ramp-up process than the "tweaked" 4S...and really, if not for iOS 5/Siri/potentially transition issues, the 4S probably would've been available much sooner than October. Most of us think 50M is a target Tim can easily meet. The rest is a function of demand and production ramp. It's not out of the question for iPhone to sell even better in fiscal Q2. All depends on guidance.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 6, 2013 16:04:34 GMT -8
Classic Post. Looking at the trend line of the past 5 years it is obvious that the bottom of the channel for the end of 2013 is around 800. So that would make sense - though only limp sense. That is to say that it could be, uh.... better. Not sure what trend line you are using, but the bottom of the LT trend line is right at 700 for Jan 1,2014. Mark - I'm using a 5 year trend line from the March 2009 low to the current low. It seems to roughly match the overall slope of the stock during that time. Attachments:
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 6, 2013 16:39:06 GMT -8
There are a few problems with this. First off, I should say that waze is one of my favorite apps, definitely in my top-5 all-time list. However, the primary value of waze is its users - and that includes users on platforms other than iOS. I'm not sure how Apple could purchase it and continue to supply Android devices with the app (and updates) and the data that makes the app valuable. And if Apple doesn't continue to support Android, the value of the app goes down because fewer users = less data = less valuable. It's a kind of catch-22. Nope. Integrating Waze into Apple Maps will provide a much larger userbase than currently exists. Most people have never even heard of Waze, let alone use it. The userbase and functionality will increase while locking Android out in one fell swoop. Think Siri before and after Apple bought it. True to some extent, HOWEVER, much of the value of waze depends on people doing things (reporting things) as I did on my almost 2000 mile drive over the Christmas/New Years vacation. So, yes, if Apple embeds the functionality, it may add users, but it remains to be seen if those users provide as much (and as good quality) information as the current user base. Also, I question whether the waze technology itself is worth $1B. Maybe the technology plus the user base is worth a large amount, but I have doubts about the technology alone. The main added value items of waze technology are rather simple and could easily be implemented in Apple devices together with the embedded mapping app.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 16:47:16 GMT -8
Watching 60 minutes and was introduced to David Kelly. Interesting guy and a longtime SJ friend. He revealed that when he was diagnosed with cancer Steve told him to not mess around trying unorthodox methods, just do what they say and do it fast. Kelly took his advice and is now in remission. It was an unexpected Apple/SJ story. Revealing and touching.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 6, 2013 17:37:42 GMT -8
Watching 60 minutes and was introduced to David Kelly. Interesting guy and a longtime SJ friend. He revealed that when he was diagnosed with cancer Steve told him to not mess around trying unorthodox methods, just do what they say and do it fast. Kelly took his advice and is now in remission. It was an unexpected Apple/SJ story. Revealing and touching. I really can see his influence in Apple products. Hope the company keeps the same philosophy alive for a long time.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 18:57:41 GMT -8
Before I used that chart I'd adjust the data to reflect lows at August 2010, July 2011, November 2011 and November 2012. Those are the months following Earnings misses. The low occurring in December had nothing to do with Earnings, and everything to do with the so-called "fiscal cliff". Re-plot your trend line after doing that. Looks more like to me you are using a 3 year trend to extrapolate a 4 year trend. I would not use 2009 as a starting point for a trend because AAPL was in sharp recovery from the 2008 Bank Meltdown. As such Earnings had little to do with AAPL's trading pattern.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 19:10:04 GMT -8
That's a very interesting estimate from Braeburn - quite conservative. It is and it isn't. It represents apples-to-apples YOY growth of over 45% in a transition quarter that had more shipping weeks than iPhone 4S, but also represents what I bet is a much tougher tooling/ramp-up process than the "tweaked" 4S...and really, if not for iOS 5/Siri/potentially transition issues, the 4S probably would've been available much sooner than October. Most of us think 50M is a target Tim can easily meet. The rest is a function of demand and production ramp. It's not out of the question for iPhone to sell even better in fiscal Q2. All depends on guidance. I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2.
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Post by alice on Jan 6, 2013 19:26:19 GMT -8
It is and it isn't. It represents apples-to-apples YOY growth of over 45% in a transition quarter that had more shipping weeks than iPhone 4S, but also represents what I bet is a much tougher tooling/ramp-up process than the "tweaked" 4S...and really, if not for iOS 5/Siri/potentially transition issues, the 4S probably would've been available much sooner than October. Most of us think 50M is a target Tim can easily meet. The rest is a function of demand and production ramp. It's not out of the question for iPhone to sell even better in fiscal Q2. All depends on guidance. I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2. I am concerned about this as well. Is Q1 taking sales from Q2?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 19:29:33 GMT -8
I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2. Agree completely. We also do not know how many units were moved to Q4.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 19:31:55 GMT -8
I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2. I am concerned about this as well. Is Q1 taken sales from Q2? Not really - but due to the earlier China launch Q1 this year might be comparatively larger to Q2, when compared to the difference a year ago.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 19:35:18 GMT -8
"Moved"?
Then adjust the growth rate. So much easier than thinking in subcategories of lost sales.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 19:38:23 GMT -8
RE: weekly trendline... I labelled the two points I used to make the line. Minimally, I want to see 1-2 additional points touch the line to call it a trendline. By that criteria, this trendline works for me. AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 19:42:01 GMT -8
Mark - I'm using a 5 year trend line from the March 2009 low to the current low. It seems to roughly match the overall slope of the stock during that time. Bryan, the trend line from 2009 was a perfect line as it went through the November 2011 low and the recent drop, but once it breached the 625-630 area I discarded it as a valid trend line. To me, until we actually find a bottom, there are no dependable trend lines. The reason I mention the other points is because you have to touch the line in between points to actually consider it a trend line IMO. I just realized, there is a dependable trend line, it points down from 705 through 595 through 555. Yech
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 19:46:01 GMT -8
RE: weekly trendline... I labelled the two points I used to make the line. Minimally, I want to see 1-2 additional points touch the line to call it a trendline. By that criteria, this trendline works for me. AAPL WEEKLY CHART: LOL, you beat me to the punch while I was crafting my post. That really does not provide any comfort as it is so close to the line.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 19:55:34 GMT -8
Lovey, you had to do some serious tweaking to get that result.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 20:12:40 GMT -8
Lovey, you had to do some serious tweaking to get that result. Did not! Connected two of the points Gregg wanted connected and looked to see if it touched at least 1-2 other points (which it does). Voila, valid trendline. ;D Go look in the technicals thread for Part 2: channel update.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 6, 2013 20:16:16 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 21:07:14 GMT -8
Live coverage of the Nvidia CES on the verge.com at the moment. Tegra 4 currently being introduced - 4 core A15 with 72 GPUs - according to their own demo slides it is barely faster than Apples A6x.
Apple really has entered the chip design business in a determined way if Nvidia can only just keep ahead with its 2013 range.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 21:17:56 GMT -8
RE: weekly trendline... I labelled the two points I used to make the line. Minimally, I want to see 1-2 additional points touch the line to call it a trendline. By that criteria, this trendline works for me. AAPL WEEKLY CHART: I don't even like this one.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 21:28:49 GMT -8
Apple has some serious chip engineers. When you consider just how far back this optimization/GPU leverage goes - Quartz/Extreme...the lesser-known pedigree just makes sense.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 6, 2013 21:45:44 GMT -8
Mark - I'm using a 5 year trend line from the March 2009 low to the current low. It seems to roughly match the overall slope of the stock during that time. Bryan, the trend line from 2009 was a perfect line as it went through the November 2011 low and the recent drop, but once it breached the 625-630 area I discarded it as a valid trend line. To me, until we actually find a bottom, there are no dependable trend lines. The reason I mention the other points is because you have to touch the line in between points to actually consider it a trend line IMO. I just realized, there is a dependable trend line, it points down from 705 through 595 through 555. Yech Well, I agree that we will very soon know about the bottom of our trend line soon.. IF we do bounce here (mumbles under breath) then it will be a very important point on that line - obviously.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 22:00:34 GMT -8
It is and it isn't. It represents apples-to-apples YOY growth of over 45% in a transition quarter that had more shipping weeks than iPhone 4S, but also represents what I bet is a much tougher tooling/ramp-up process than the "tweaked" 4S...and really, if not for iOS 5/Siri/potentially transition issues, the 4S probably would've been available much sooner than October. Most of us think 50M is a target Tim can easily meet. The rest is a function of demand and production ramp. It's not out of the question for iPhone to sell even better in fiscal Q2. All depends on guidance. I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2. Would that be the same as iPhone 4S sales lost to FQ2/2012? You guys continue to over think the issues.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 22:56:12 GMT -8
I have a suspicion that this generation the iPhone is incredibly front loaded. The 5 launched in China, to what I estimate to be at least 5 million units before the end of December - these launch numbers were essentially stolen from Q2. Would that be the same as iPhone 4S sales lost to FQ2/2012? You guys continue to over think the issues. I need to rephrase I think - no sales lost from Q2, but bigger Q1 from more/earlier launches. Which is a positive of course - but might mean Q2 may fall a bit more sequentially than Q2 last year.
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