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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 10, 2020 6:42:14 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 10, 2020 6:54:39 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 10, 2020 8:33:22 GMT -8
Apple just turned green and TESLA is showing some life. I get the feeling that this market wants to bust out to the upside as soon as we turn the corner on the virus.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 10, 2020 9:30:35 GMT -8
Apple just turned green and TESLA is showing some life. I get the feeling that this market wants to bust out to the upside as soon as we turn the corner on the virus. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the virus, and I still think it will affect Apple more than has already been priced in. Data and wet labs all over the world are still trying to get an initial look at its biology (although viruses are sort of in-between organic and inorganic beings, so "biology" might not be the right word). China's secrecy hasn't helped the situation. www.macrumors.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-may-halve-chinas-smartphone-sales/
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Feb 10, 2020 10:12:07 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Feb 10, 2020 10:30:21 GMT -8
I continue to hear stories that the Chinese government is trying to cover-up the severity and origin of the Coronavirus. If this has any truth to it then this really could be a Black Swan event for Apple. Looking at the charts, I see $300 as a support. Does anyone have any ideas for other support levels?
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Post by duckpins on Feb 10, 2020 11:05:22 GMT -8
If there is an earnings miss 300 will not hold, 265 then around 200 or 195 then 140. Last time the stock was obliterated it went from 700+ to a little over 350 fro Sept 2012 to Feb 2013. That was because Cook lost about 1-200 million phone sales. The market morphed to larger phones which Samsung got and Cook did not. First serious post Jobs mistake. The iPhone 5 and 5+ were not where the demand was. This time it is extraneous events that might impact sales will determine where the stock goes short term. If Bernie gets the nomination the market could have a hissy fit. If Trump gets beat they could be diving out of Goldman Sachs windows. Hope for the best but some thought for an extended down turn is not a waste of time.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 10, 2020 11:57:02 GMT -8
If there is an earnings miss 300 will not hold, 265 then around 200 or 195 then 140. Last time the stock was obliterated it went from 700+ to a little over 350 fro Sept 2012 to Feb 2013. That was because Cook lost about 1-200 million phone sales. The market morphed to larger phones which Samsung got and Cook did not. First serious post Jobs mistake. The iPhone 5 and 5+ were not where the demand was. This time it is extraneous events that might impact sales will determine where the stock goes short term. If Bernie gets the nomination the market could have a hissy fit. If Trump gets beat they could be diving out of Goldman Sachs windows. Hope for the best but some thought for an extended down turn is not a waste of time. Whoah! Slow down a bit there! First, this is not the same company it was in September 2012. The next earnings call is almost three months away. The China situation is clearly a black swan event, and if it depresses the stock a bit I would be very surprised if many institutions do not see that as a buying opportunity.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 10, 2020 12:16:49 GMT -8
If there is an earnings miss 300 will not hold, 265 then around 200 or 195 then 140. Last time the stock was obliterated it went from 700+ to a little over 350 fro Sept 2012 to Feb 2013. That was because Cook lost about 1-200 million phone sales. The market morphed to larger phones which Samsung got and Cook did not. First serious post Jobs mistake. The iPhone 5 and 5+ were not where the demand was. This time it is extraneous events that might impact sales will determine where the stock goes short term. If Bernie gets the nomination the market could have a hissy fit. If Trump gets beat they could be diving out of Goldman Sachs windows. Hope for the best but some thought for an extended down turn is not a waste of time. Anything under 250 seems very unlikely now. I say "now" because of four things (that come to my mind right away): - There has been no run-up after a blow-out ER. Just the guidance that was MUCH higher than WS expectations warranted a good run which didn't happen and is being held back due to the virus. When the virus news fades we will start marching ahead. If Apple sees that they won't hit their guidance they'll be smart enough to revise it instead of giving a negative surprise on ER day. Even if they revise it to 61B-63B that'll still be inline with WS expectations of Jan 28th ER. Although the reason for the lower guidance is seen as valid, there will be a sell-off for sure but I don't think it'll keep us down for long.
- The narrative has clearly changed to Apple is not just an iPhone company but also a company with exponential and continuing growth in services and wearables.
- Buybacks and raised dividends.
- The euphoria of a 5G iPhone will be too big to ignore. The tech savvy will not be going gaga over 5G especially if it's sub-6 and not mmWave but for the rest of the world, the 5G iPhone will become the model phone.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 10, 2020 12:21:01 GMT -8
I hope I am wrong and you are right.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 10, 2020 13:49:57 GMT -8
If there is an earnings miss 300 will not hold, 265 then around 200 or 195 then 140. Last time the stock was obliterated it went from 700+ to a little over 350 fro Sept 2012 to Feb 2013. That was because Cook lost about 1-200 million phone sales. The market morphed to larger phones which Samsung got and Cook did not. First serious post Jobs mistake. The iPhone 5 and 5+ were not where the demand was. This time it is extraneous events that might impact sales will determine where the stock goes short term. If Bernie gets the nomination the market could have a hissy fit. If Trump gets beat they could be diving out of Goldman Sachs windows. Hope for the best but some thought for an extended down turn is not a waste of time. Great writing duckpins ! Fun and very creative !
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