Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 4:08:41 GMT -8
What a difference a day makes. Apple announced yesterday that it would miss it’s projected guidance. In pre-market the price is deep red at over -$10. Everyone buckle up, this is going to be a rough ride.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 4:44:29 GMT -8
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Post by montegn on Feb 18, 2020 4:45:01 GMT -8
Perhaps time to put to use some cash and slowly buy more of our favorite fruit stock. This virus will pass, and orders will need to be filled. Looking ahead to next quarter's blowout stats But, yes, short term it isn't looking good.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Feb 18, 2020 5:14:52 GMT -8
Premarket down only 2.58% seems surprisingly, well, OK. I’m still thinking down 10% wouldn’t be so bad given the swings we’ve all too often seen
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 18, 2020 5:48:16 GMT -8
The quarter started on December 29th, 2019.
The quarter ends on March 30th.
Guidance was given on January 28th.
Guidance was given on the 31st day of the quarter.
Guidance was changed 20 days later.
darn.............
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Post by aaplcrazie on Feb 18, 2020 6:01:26 GMT -8
Dip on the Open? Panic Selling? Put in a limit order?
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Post by playultimate on Feb 18, 2020 6:10:21 GMT -8
Considering that the change in guidance was due to an “unforeseen” health event and not due to a change in business fundamentals, this is likely short lived; assuming the crisis, and duration, is what it is described to be.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 6:26:40 GMT -8
Yes, I agree that the problem is not the lack of demand, but the inability to supply that demand. I pray that this problem is short lived and Apple will get back to something close to normal. I see several support levels with $300 being the nearest.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 6:40:47 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 18, 2020 6:51:08 GMT -8
Buying the dip is a bet on the seriousness of the epidemic. I think the best buy signal is an inflection point in the number of new cases. Track the second derivative.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 6:55:49 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Feb 18, 2020 7:02:26 GMT -8
Just a blip for long term investors although not so for options traders. Apple nowadays has so many levers to pull in order to reach their numbers, thanks Tim Cook !
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 18, 2020 10:14:04 GMT -8
As others have noted, no fundamental change in the company or customer sentiment. A temporary force majeure issue that will eventually subside. AAPL trading at a discount.
Glad my buy the dip AAPL spread didn't execute last Friday though!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 18, 2020 12:09:48 GMT -8
As others have noted, no fundamental change in the company or customer sentiment. A temporary force majeure issue that will eventually subside. AAPL trading at a discount. Just the same, I expected AAPL to take more of a hit than this, just on general fear and uncertainty. We'll see how it does after a couple days, but so far it looks like support is doing fairly well. I'd suspect that this may be a hold up on a couple components, since articles said iPhone production (assumedly final assembly) was back up and running. While the easy scapegoat is to blame this on China, would it be any different if everything was produced somewhere else? Diversification of suppliers and assembly would help too, but if you only have 2 or 3 suppliers for a specific part, are they diversified enough, and can they take over enough to make up for one supplier going down? OTOH, maybe you decide that these things occasionally happen. This time it is more minor, call it a grey swan event. A temporary supply hiccup is much better than a temporary demand hiccup. So this, vs last year's tariff/patriotism issues with China sales decreasing, even if in the end the change wasn't by a huge percent. RSI only at 55, whereas a big dip would take it down to the low 30's. If that happened, while the rest of the market held up, I know I'd rebalance a bit. But for now, it's just the long term mindset of letting these little ups and downs cancel out and blow over.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 18, 2020 12:20:46 GMT -8
FYI The Great Cramer, savant, trader, crook, when Apple was at 143 advised waiting until 140 to buy not long ago (never made it there) now says 302-311 is where you start adding to your shares. This little bit of genius is predicated on a 5% fall from the highs and a 5% fall from the pre earnings price. If I bought a 100 shares here I would sell the 320-340 calls. Depends on your preference. It is one thing for Apple to say there earnings will be down and another when it is printed in black and white. The Apple market has been treading water since earnings. The infamous island reversal might just be another gap fill as the uptrend resumes. We will find out eventually.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 18, 2020 13:02:48 GMT -8
What if I bet you $100 that the day after Apple warns and reduces guidance, the NASDAQ would close green? Or, would you pay $5 or $6 a share to lower expectations for the next earnings announcement? BTFD. BOT some SpaceX at the LOTD. Edit: Obviously I meant Virgin Galactic. But I'd definitely buy SpaceX on the secondary market.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,057
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Post by Dave on Feb 18, 2020 13:11:28 GMT -8
I guess ripping that bandage off didn’t hurt as bad as expected, so far.
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