Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2020 3:46:51 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2020 4:13:04 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Feb 25, 2020 6:31:03 GMT -8
macdailynews.com/2020/02/25/apples-china-iphone-sales-up-5-yoy-in-january-despite-coronavirus/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/apple-s-china-iphone-sales-dropped-in-january-as-virus-emergedOverall January smartphone shipments in China slumped 37% year over year, according to numbers from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. UBS’s Arcuri said iPhone sales climbed 5% in the same period, thanks to its online stores and easier comparisons to the previous holiday period which was marred by trade war tensions.Apple’s China iPhone sales up 5% YOY in January despite coronavirus Tuesday, February 25, 2020 9:10 am According to UBS Investment Research’s analysis of Chinese government data on Monday, Apple’s iPhone sales in China actually climbed 5% vs. January 2019, even as they dropped more than usual in January as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak began to spread. Demand for the product fell 28% compared with the previous month, a bigger decline than usual for that time of year, according to a UBS research note citing official Chinese data. “February numbers are likely to be far worse due to both supply and demand issues related to the virus outbreak,” UBS analyst Timothy Arcuriwrote in the note… [Apple had] closed all of its 42 physical stores in mainland China due to the outbreak. It is beginning to reopen them now. Overall January smartphone shipments in China slumped 37% year over year, according to numbers from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. UBS’s Arcuri said iPhone sales climbed 5% in the same period, thanks to its online stores and easier comparisons to the previous holiday period which was marred by trade war tensions.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 25, 2020 6:34:33 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2020 8:29:12 GMT -8
Ouch!
I expected this to be a multi-day thing, not counting Friday. A touch just below $291 just now....and for the record, an RSI of 33.83 while at $290.81.
Sometimes it's tempting to try to catch that falling knife. Some can do it, or can choose to do it with a percentage. Volatility will jack up options prices, but that partially cancels on spreads, assuming the bid/ask spread doesn't bite too bad.
Or if you had huge conviction, you could use that to your favor by writing puts. If in a reasonable size, that could just delay a stock purchase. In an unreasonable size, it could be very profitable, or it could sink you.
Careful out there. I have a few accounts to make non-AAPL purchases in, though I wish it was 10% off the top instead of 6%. And look at that, AAPL is up almost 2 bucks off the bottom, with the RSI climbing a point too.
Sometimes these things are quick. Sometimes they aren't. IMO it all depends on the psychology of fear and greed, with the underlying facts pointing the longer term direction.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2020 10:16:44 GMT -8
It looks like $290 may act as a support with the 50 day MA acting as resistance. My guess is the price may bounce around here until some type of news drives it in either direction. I know the direction that I want it to go.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 25, 2020 11:43:54 GMT -8
This seems like a "Day Traders United" kinda move. All the big dogs must've decided on this play over their morning coffee. The same kinda move will happen in the opposite direction when they want it to.
Hope Luca has backed up the truck and has already started loading.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2020 11:45:47 GMT -8
Ouch! I expected this to be a multi-day thing, not counting Friday. A touch just below $291 just now....and for the record, an RSI of 33.83 while at $290.81. 32.95 on this dip, while at 288.90. A watched pot never boils? One way to get an RSI of 29-31 is in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow to have a kick down to 285, after a close at say 291 today. No crystal ball here, just a wild-ass guess, that would knock that RSI down, through continued downwardness while incrementing another day in the 14 day sample. Odds are it won't play out that way....but it could. Or negative news could keep things low for a bit, while also ensuring the frothiness is pulled back a bit. Fun times! Time to get outside and do something. I'm going to try to cure 2 issues with one stone, by going and washing the car. Nearly no snow in 6 weeks, and a mere 2 inches in all of February, does not make for the best skiing. Like the market, it's only temporary, but the weather could use a nudge in the right direction.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 25, 2020 12:08:58 GMT -8
Ouch! I expected this to be a multi-day thing, not counting Friday. A touch just below $291 just now....and for the record, an RSI of 33.83 while at $290.81. 32.95 on this dip, while at 288.90. A watched pot never boils? One way to get an RSI of 29-31 is in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow to have a kick down to 285, after a close at say 291 today. No crystal ball here, just a wild-ass guess, that would knock that RSI down, through continued downwardness while incrementing another day in the 14 day sample. Odds are it won't play out that way....but it could. Or negative news could keep things low for a bit, while also ensuring the frothiness is pulled back a bit. Fun times! Time to get outside and do something. I'm going to try to cure 2 issues with one stone, by going and washing the car. Nearly no snow in 6 weeks, and a mere 2 inches in all of February, does not make for the best skiing. Like the market, it's only temporary, but the weather could use a nudge in the right direction. Keep in mind the RSI isn't a magic wand. There's no causality that says the stock has to go up after hitting 30 on RSI. It's just a quantifiable symptom of the trading action saying "this thing has been sold a lot lately." It's worked for me as a buying-the-dip indicator over the last few years, but I don't want to be responsible for getting anyone into trouble. Be aware, it could bounce around down there for a while. I never recommend short term options. And your mileage may vary.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2020 12:38:12 GMT -8
Keep in mind the RSI isn't a magic wand. There's no causality that says the stock has to go up after hitting 30 on RSI. It's just a quantifiable symptom of the trading action saying "this thing has been sold a lot lately." It's worked for me as a buying-the-dip indicator over the last few years, but I don't want to be responsible for getting anyone into trouble. Be aware, it could bounce around down there for a while. I never recommend short term options. And your mileage may vary. Thanks! I do like taking a look at the 3 or 5 year chart at stockcharts.com That shows that while a blip down to 35 for AAPL is rare, and once in a while there is a blip to sub-30, while in retrospect they have been good places to buy, it hasn't always been the absolute best nor has it meant there will be an immediate dramatic upturn. Take a look at Jan 2016 to see a place where AAPL's RSI ticked below 30 and then recovered, but the stock price wasn't quite ready to recover. It continued to step down, while the RSI recovered. schrts.co/cQDgaJkdOTOH, AAPL has been blessed to have a long overall rise, giving that most buy points for the stock worked out in the long term. If you see the RSI getting this low as a signal that things are oversold and the stock is likely to stop going down so much, then maybe you see this as a rare 10% (or less) time. Looking at the S&P, it's interesting to see that the high was only 5 days ago, but after dropping 8% it is where it was 2.5 months ago, at the start of December. Up the stairs, down the elevator. That's why the drops feel like they hurt a little more sometimes. Ughhh, down some more. Looks like the market is not quite ready to find a bottom, nor of holding too much speculatively as the trading day closes.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2020 13:08:44 GMT -8
It looks like $290 may act as a support with the 50 day MA acting as resistance. My guess is the price may bounce around here until some type of news drives it in either direction. I know the direction that I want it to go. Well. . . . that answers that.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 25, 2020 13:09:50 GMT -8
Bought 10 May 350 2020 calls @ $1.60.
Will add more to this and my leaps if AAPL's carnage continues.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 25, 2020 17:01:49 GMT -8
Bears are smelling blood in the water! Where is Sponge when we need him!?! I started dabbling on some discounted shares today. Hoping to cost average on our way down. I've been doing this for years and it's served me well so why not try it again? Here are some words of wisdom if you're feeling down this evening: - “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet
- "This too, shall pass." 19th-century retelling of Persian fable by the English poet Edward FitzGerald
- "Big bear chase me!" John Candy, The Great Outdoors, 1988
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 25, 2020 20:46:50 GMT -8
You know, I could make a lot of money, if someone would just tell me when and where the fucking bottom is!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2020 22:09:22 GMT -8
You know, I could make a lot of money, if someone would just tell me when and where the fucking bottom is! Sorry dude, you missed it. It was back around January 4th, 1998. Let's hope it never gets that low again.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 26, 2020 8:36:14 GMT -8
I nibbled at some Jan '22 call spreads at the end of the day (literally executed a few minutes before the close!)
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