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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 9:49:08 GMT -8
I thought the tax selling caused aapl share price to go down the last 2 months. I don't think so now as aapl is still not moving up much. At this time, I believe aapl went down due to Oct. ER. I hope Jan ER will move aapl up. Alice, the tax selling was a smoke screen, a pitiful one at that. (One I never believed in) There are valid reason fo AAPL to have dropped from 705, there are none to justify 500. The guidance for Q1 was awful, plain and simple. You can't guide to a $2+ drop in EPS and expect the stock to go up. Especially when the company has narrowed its results in recent quarters. I truly believe the market is waiting to see if AAPL has EPS contraction. Above 13.87 we should be fine, below and I expect more of the same. The CC data point this morning is encouraging that this quarter may surprise.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2013 9:55:27 GMT -8
A couple of years ago I thought Apple might buy the media part of Disney even though I knew it was not something they knew anything about. I have moved on from that, they do not need to buy Disney. The CEO of Disney is a BOD member, the companies are on friendly terms. Disney is not going to introduce a phone and Apple is not going to launch a sports media empire, but they sure can work together doing what each does best. Exactly...just the content from Disney/ESPN would be a great start in my mind. Add HBO and Showtime who should be easier to deal with as they already have a similar business model (and some of the best shows on TV and a loyal consumer base) and you have a GREAT starting point. Let it take off for a few months and others will be begging Apple to hop on board.
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Post by alice on Jan 7, 2013 9:57:54 GMT -8
Have Apple ever guided a drop in EPS before Oct2012 ER?
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Post by podboy on Jan 7, 2013 10:02:42 GMT -8
online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.htmlVery interesting. Net inflows are higher than just block inflows, this is first time for as long as i can remember. This tells me retail is buying today, they've been selling last few weeks (net inflow was always a number < block inflows)
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Post by alice on Jan 7, 2013 10:11:23 GMT -8
Oct2012 ER not 2011
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Post by zzmac on Jan 7, 2013 10:11:50 GMT -8
Most likely due to rounding. No, it represents the 1% of people who bought an iphone and then returned it. ;D
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Post by terps530 on Jan 7, 2013 10:23:56 GMT -8
Above 13.87 we should be fine, below and I expect more of the same. The CC data point this morning is encouraging that this quarter may surprise. just for reference, 13.87 is 18% above the guidance of 11.75. CL4 posted a great chart on page 8 of the Q1 thread which the % apple has beaten their guidance over the last few years. Also just for reference, last year's holiday quarter beat guidance by 43%. If we matched that this year, this would translate to 16.80 EPS.
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Post by mstefa on Jan 7, 2013 11:03:00 GMT -8
I thought the tax selling caused aapl share price to go down the last 2 months. I don't think so now as aapl is still not moving up much. At this time, I believe aapl went down due to Oct. ER. I hope Jan ER will move aapl up. the problem is that stock went down almost 30%. If it goes up 75% ( like it did in 2012 at the peak ) it gets it to 900 more or less. That would have to happen very fast for anyone with options expiring before 2014, esp with strikes at 700 or above.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 11:14:36 GMT -8
Feeling very rangebound.
As if waiting for something to happen.
Sigh. Guess I have to, too.
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Post by mstefa on Jan 7, 2013 11:15:46 GMT -8
I was in the BAC camp in 2009. I also bought below $3 and sold above $15 to reinvest in AAPL. It was a good move then. I would not do it now. Apple has a weapon, and that weapon is cash. It is to big and something is coming. I do not know when, I do not know what, but I expect there to be another Earth shattering announcement. This is my tin foil hat speaking and cough syrup, pay me no attention. Sometimes I feel like some of the crazier ideas out there for use of Apple's cash are some of the best. For example, for Apple to create the TV experience they want, they need content; plain and simple. We're all aware that the content providers are hesitant to provide it to Apple for numerous reasons (loosing control of their content, become a back seat third-party provider, disruption in the TV scene similar to music and phone industries). However, with the cash on hand, apple could just BUY their content and become a juggernaut. Disney for example holds some major content in their archives as far as movies as well as TV. I just get the feeling Apple is going to say, "Company XYZ wouldn't negotiate their content with us for a reasonable sum... so we just bought their whole company with a fraction of our cash stockpile...." imagine if Laura swaps disney shares for corresponding value in aapl shares ( or cash) and all of a sudden , Apple is the largest Disney shareholder. Besides, did you notice how their equities holdings increased YOY ? maybe they're quietly purchasing shares of some companies. ( see table in this article seekingalpha.com/article/1098091-taking-a-longer-look-at-apple-s-secret-hedge-fund?source=email_rt_article_readmore)
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Post by alice on Jan 7, 2013 11:23:59 GMT -8
I thought the tax selling caused aapl share price to go down the last 2 months. I don't think so now as aapl is still not moving up much. At this time, I believe aapl went down due to Oct. ER. I hope Jan ER will move aapl up. Alice, the tax selling was a smoke screen, a pitiful one at that. (One I never believed in) There are valid reason fo AAPL to have dropped from 705, there are none to justify 500. The guidance for Q1 was awful, plain and simple. You can't guide to a $2+ drop in EPS and expect the stock to go up. Especially when the company has narrowed its results in recent quarters. I truly believe the market is waiting to see if AAPL has EPS contraction. Above 13.87 we should be fine, below and I expect more of the same. The CC data point this morning is encouraging that this quarter may surprise. Apple guided $2+ drop in EPS for Q1. What is it about Q1 that Apple was concerned about? In hindsight, that should have been a red flag as guiding a decline in EPS is a big deal. I was in denial for so long.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 11:35:28 GMT -8
Have Apple ever guided a drop in EPS before Oct2012 ER? Specifically for the September quarter? Yes, 2007.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 7, 2013 11:47:16 GMT -8
Sometimes I feel like some of the crazier ideas out there for use of Apple's cash are some of the best. For example, for Apple to create the TV experience they want, they need content; plain and simple. We're all aware that the content providers are hesitant to provide it to Apple for numerous reasons (loosing control of their content, become a back seat third-party provider, disruption in the TV scene similar to music and phone industries). However, with the cash on hand, apple could just BUY their content and become a juggernaut. Disney for example holds some major content in their archives as far as movies as well as TV. I just get the feeling Apple is going to say, "Company XYZ wouldn't negotiate their content with us for a reasonable sum... so we just bought their whole company with a fraction of our cash stockpile...." imagine if Laura swaps disney shares for corresponding value in aapl shares ( or cash) and all of a sudden , Apple is the largest Disney shareholder. Besides, did you notice how their equities holdings increased YOY ? maybe they're quietly purchasing shares of some companies. ( see table in this article seekingalpha.com/article/1098091-taking-a-longer-look-at-apple-s-secret-hedge-fund?source=email_rt_article_readmore)I believe Mrs. Jobs first name is Laurene (and she's a Jersey girl, I knew Steve had good taste in women).
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 7, 2013 11:51:23 GMT -8
Alice, the tax selling was a smoke screen, a pitiful one at that. (One I never believed in) There are valid reason fo AAPL to have dropped from 705, there are none to justify 500. The guidance for Q1 was awful, plain and simple. You can't guide to a $2+ drop in EPS and expect the stock to go up. Especially when the company has narrowed its results in recent quarters. I truly believe the market is waiting to see if AAPL has EPS contraction. Above 13.87 we should be fine, below and I expect more of the same. The CC data point this morning is encouraging that this quarter may surprise. Apple guided $2+ drop in EPS for Q1. What is it about Q1 that Apple was concerned about? In hindsight, that should have been a red flag as guiding a decline in EPS is a big deal. I was in denial for so long. Alice, Revenues projected would be an ATH ($50B). It's the margin they guided which is killing us. They projected 36% - and they are usually above 40%, like 47% a few times - because of the new form factor for IPhone5 and IPad mini. If they guided 40%, then the EPS would increase from 2012, not decrease. My feeling is that they will come in 38-39% on gross margin, and probably 55-58B on revenue. Count on a beat, it's by how much is the question.
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Post by mstefa on Jan 7, 2013 11:52:12 GMT -8
I believe Mrs. Jobs first name is Laurene (and she's a Jersey girl, I knew Steve had good taste in women). Correct, my mistake.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 7, 2013 11:52:51 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2013 11:56:29 GMT -8
Sometimes I feel like some of the crazier ideas out there for use of Apple's cash are some of the best. For example, for Apple to create the TV experience they want, they need content; plain and simple. We're all aware that the content providers are hesitant to provide it to Apple for numerous reasons (loosing control of their content, become a back seat third-party provider, disruption in the TV scene similar to music and phone industries). However, with the cash on hand, apple could just BUY their content and become a juggernaut. Disney for example holds some major content in their archives as far as movies as well as TV. I just get the feeling Apple is going to say, "Company XYZ wouldn't negotiate their content with us for a reasonable sum... so we just bought their whole company with a fraction of our cash stockpile...." imagine if Laura swaps disney shares for corresponding value in aapl shares ( or cash) and all of a sudden , Apple is the largest Disney shareholder. Besides, did you notice how their equities holdings increased YOY ? maybe they're quietly purchasing shares of some companies. ( see table in this article seekingalpha.com/article/1098091-taking-a-longer-look-at-apple-s-secret-hedge-fund?source=email_rt_article_readmore)For a second I thought you meant the sponge...
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2013 12:09:51 GMT -8
For anyone who wants an increase in their blood pressure, there's a link on the front page of Google Finance to an article projecting a $50 price target for AAPL. It's also quite literally the worst thing I've ever read, from blatant misinformation to terrible grammar and writing style.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2013 12:09:59 GMT -8
Have Apple ever guided a drop in EPS before Oct2012 ER? Yes. They guided a drop every quarter of fiscal 2009 and first quarter of fiscal 2010. That's as far back as my guidance data goes. [edited to correct dates]
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 12:20:15 GMT -8
He has certain investment criteria and Apple is out of that criteria. It seems a major disappointment is cash management and personally I agree with all his points on that. There is no case for that much cash and by letting it sit it demonstrates greed or indecision or both. I understand his fear of competitors but for at least 9 months there is none. He doesn't see apple growth slowing but just thinks they are more vulnerable competition than this time last year. He thinks FCX has a lower risk. Good luck to him on FCX. One good thing is this is just another voice piling on to do something with the cash.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:22:15 GMT -8
Have Apple ever guided a drop in EPS before Oct2012 ER? Yes. They guided a drop every quarter of fiscal 2009 and first quarter of fiscal 2010. That's as far back as my guidance data goes. [edited to correct dates] Are we talking about sequential drops in guidance, or a drop from prior quarter actual to next quarter guidance? Huge difference.
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Post by lance on Jan 7, 2013 12:29:32 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2013 12:30:00 GMT -8
Yes. They guided a drop every quarter of fiscal 2009 and first quarter of fiscal 2010. That's as far back as my guidance data goes. [edited to correct dates] Are we talking about sequential drops in guidance, or a drop from prior quarter actual to next quarter guidance? Huge difference. We're talking year over year comps. What prompted the question was Apple guiding 11.75 for Q1 2013, lower than the 13.87 actual for Q1 2012.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 12:32:33 GMT -8
For anyone who wants an increase in their blood pressure, there's a link on the front page of Google Finance to an article projecting a $50 price target for AAPL. It's also quite literally the worst thing I've ever read, from blatant misinformation to terrible grammar and writing style. Negative PE ratio for a company making a profit: that would be a first
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:32:51 GMT -8
"Apple® today announced that customers have downloaded over 40 billion apps*, with nearly 20 billion in 2012 alone. The App Store℠ has over 500 million active accounts and had a record-breaking December with over two billion downloads during the month." Doesn't sound like there was a huge increase in app downloads over the holidays if 20 billion downloaded for the year and only 2 billion (10%) in December. Am I missing something? "...OVER two billion..."
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:33:53 GMT -8
For anyone who wants an increase in their blood pressure, there's a link on the front page of Google Finance to an article projecting a $50 price target for AAPL. It's also quite literally the worst thing I've ever read, from blatant misinformation to terrible grammar and writing style. Negative PE ratio for a company making a profit: that would be a first LOL, and you should see what the ex-cash PE would look like.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:36:51 GMT -8
I thought the tax selling caused aapl share price to go down the last 2 months. I don't think so now as aapl is still not moving up much. At this time, I believe aapl went down due to Oct. ER. I hope Jan ER will move aapl up. the problem is that stock went down almost 30%. If it goes up 75% ( like it did in 2012 at the peak ) it gets it to 900 more or less. That would have to happen very fast for anyone with options expiring before 2014, esp with strikes at 700 or above. To get to $900, It's only a average rise of $8 a week for 2013 - doesn't need to be very fast.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 12:43:14 GMT -8
Would just like to point out that AAPL is only a couple of weeks away from reporting probably the biggest ever quarterly earnings in US history, and has an outside shot at taking the number 1 Global spot from Gazprom.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 12:43:22 GMT -8
We're talking year over year comps. What prompted the question was Apple guiding 11.75 for Q1 2013, lower than the 13.87 actual for Q1 2012. Re: any concerns about YOY EPS decline, this is a non-issue due to Oppenheimer's clear-as-day signaling of sharply reduced GM. I mean, 868 basis points from actual results last year! That's friggin' enormous!Of course I'm vastly oversimplifying (OpEx, OI&E, tax rate, share creep) but you _will_ basically end up with 20% less net income per dollar with Oppenheimer's guidance. So the "more revenue, less EPS" math should not be a surprise or worry to anyone here.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 12:46:14 GMT -8
This last hour is a real battle between the bulls and bears. Actually the whole day has been interesting on a day range basis
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