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Post by fas550 on Jan 7, 2013 12:48:07 GMT -8
This last hour is a real battle between the bulls and bears. Actually the whole day has been interesting on a day range basis I thought we were golden at 11:30 then done at 1:30 but oh no...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 12:50:01 GMT -8
Blah. Trendless markets. Not my expertise really, so I continue to wait.
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Post by lance on Jan 7, 2013 12:50:36 GMT -8
AAPL is currently up 23% from 1year ago. Nasdaq 16% from one year ago. That is horrible considering how huge a year Apple had. Also if you consider AAPL had a huge January last year, AAPL may reach a point where it has underperformed the Nasdaq over a full year. Officially insane. I may as well buy the market instead of the strongest run company in the world with no debt and 121 billion.
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Post by mstefa on Jan 7, 2013 12:57:58 GMT -8
the problem is that stock went down almost 30%. If it goes up 75% ( like it did in 2012 at the peak ) it gets it to 900 more or less. That would have to happen very fast for anyone with options expiring before 2014, esp with strikes at 700 or above. To get to $900, It's only a average rise of $8 a week for 2013 - doesn't need to be very fast. that doesnt help your options for 2013. Thats why I said fast. its fine if you have 700 strike for 2014, but what about april or july? i
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 13:00:15 GMT -8
I'm almost "bored".
Not a lot of edge out there I can see. Made a smaller bet on WYNN calls. Seemed a bit "safer" than trying a put bet on NFLX, even though I have a tinfoil H&S theory developing if NFLX can drop another buck or so.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 7, 2013 13:07:50 GMT -8
We're talking year over year comps. What prompted the question was Apple guiding 11.75 for Q1 2013, lower than the 13.87 actual for Q1 2012. Re: any concerns about YOY EPS decline, this is a non-issue due to Oppenheimer's clear-as-day signaling of sharply reduced GM. I mean, 868 basis points from actual results last year! That's friggin' enormous!Of course I'm vastly oversimplifying (OpEx, OI&E, tax rate, share creep) but you _will_ basically end up with 20% less net income per dollar with Oppenheimer's guidance. So the "more revenue, less EPS" math should not be a surprise or worry to anyone here. It's enormous indeed. My take is that ever conservative Apple had more to be conservative about with the massive product portfolio transition and ramp. I think they guide on a worst case basis, and the degree of the sandbag ends up being relative to the degree of uncertainty going in and the degree of success in the end. It's noteworthy that reported EPS shows no case where it actually went down going back to fiscal 2004 (that's as far back as my spreadsheet goes).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 13:10:49 GMT -8
To get to $900, It's only a average rise of $8 a week for 2013 - doesn't need to be very fast. that doesnt help your options for 2013. Thats why I said fast. its fine if you have 700 strike for 2014, but what about april or july? i Well I guess that doesn't really help then. Unless you sell up your shorter term calls and reinvest on LEAPS.
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Post by kloot on Jan 7, 2013 13:23:33 GMT -8
AAPL is currently up 23% from 1year ago. Nasdaq 16% from one year ago. That is horrible considering how huge a year Apple had. Also if you consider AAPL had a huge January last year, AAPL may reach a point where it has underperformed the Nasdaq over a full year. Officially insane. I may as well buy the market instead of the strongest run company in the world with no debt and 121 billion. +555. preach.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 13:25:20 GMT -8
We're talking year over year comps. What prompted the question was Apple guiding 11.75 for Q1 2013, lower than the 13.87 actual for Q1 2012. Ahhh. Apple always (might be an exception, I don't recollect one) guides lower in the subsequent quarter than they reported in the just completed quarter.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 13:36:47 GMT -8
Another annoying day in Limbo-Land.
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Post by stevereel on Jan 7, 2013 13:42:14 GMT -8
Until earnings, the only winners are option sellers or trades that profit from theta. I, unfortunately have none of those and little cash.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 13:50:38 GMT -8
Earnings seem like an eternity away from now...ugh.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 13:52:46 GMT -8
Intel doing a presentation on eye tracking software...wow...so cool. Imagine an integration like that...would be pretty awesome on a phone or tablet.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 7, 2013 13:57:52 GMT -8
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Post by mstefa on Jan 7, 2013 14:04:01 GMT -8
AAPL is currently up 23% from 1year ago. Nasdaq 16% from one year ago. That is horrible considering how huge a year Apple had. Also if you consider AAPL had a huge January last year, AAPL may reach a point where it has underperformed the Nasdaq over a full year. Officially insane. I may as well buy the market instead of the strongest run company in the world with no debt and 121 billion. +555. preach. AAPL is 6 weeks away from flat on 52 weeks. it was over 520 around feb 20th. Apple is now priced for catastrophe of declining EPS and lower PE indicates belief of value trap.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 15:20:52 GMT -8
I have to tell you guys why I think ND wins tonight, yesterday I saw a commercial for a book/dvd celebrating ND's undefeated season. yep, I think the fix is in.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 15:26:58 GMT -8
I have to tell you guys why I think ND wins tonight, yesterday I saw a commercial for a book/dvd celebrating ND's undefeated season. yep, I think the fix is in. That would be AWESOME! But Saban is a magician...so I'm not so sure. I just hope it's a good game and not too one sided...unless of course, it's the right side!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 15:31:18 GMT -8
I have to tell you guys why I think ND wins tonight, yesterday I saw a commercial for a book/dvd celebrating ND's undefeated season. yep, I think the fix is in. Send in the Elves. I see Mark at the 21 second point. www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl5tG3fRZhk
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 15:34:40 GMT -8
Interesting ;-) AMZN Put Volume: 28,872 contracts Call Volume: 29,302 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 Read into that what you will. First time I've looked at all three. AAPL was at .98:1 when it went into September's tailspin. I'm tempted to take a Put Spread flyer on AMZN for April. Read this today: "A new report from financial services and research firm MacQuarie Capital estimates that Amazon Web Services will earn $19.3 billion in profit this year on $79.4 billion in revenue, growing to $30 billion in profit on $124 billion in revenue by 2015." EDIT: Source was theverge.com article - WHICH WAS COMPLETE BULLSHIT. remind me to NEVER trust any financial news from them again.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 15:39:39 GMT -8
You're gonna need a link there.
Also, that quote must be a compound typo. Web Services, with almost $80B in revs this year? On its own?
Note also "profit". Net income is what matters, and right now, Amazon ain't got none.
Not like it matters. AMZN is a stock I avoid (aside from occasional directional trades, more often to the downside) because the blue chippiness of its profits is unproven. Everybody else is welcome to pile on, it's not for me.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 7, 2013 16:09:17 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2013 16:12:12 GMT -8
Samesung has a Superbowl spot - how frigging annoying - ugh! And I am going to guess that it won't be anything about their products but more AAPL bashing. It just sucks...crap!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:28:44 GMT -8
Oh, just wait until the next major market correction. Doesn't matter, you can respect the company (predatory e-book pricing and endless Kindle sales fluff aside) but not the stock.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 16:32:23 GMT -8
Would just like to point out that AAPL is only a couple of weeks away from reporting probably the biggest ever quarterly earnings in US history, and has an outside shot at taking the number 1 Global spot from Gazprom. Agree. Just remember the next time we hit 700: take some profits.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:32:58 GMT -8
As if we wouldn't be taking profits at 600 this time around, iPad.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 16:40:15 GMT -8
AAPL is 6 weeks away from flat on 52 weeks. it was over 520 around feb 20th. Apple is now priced for catastrophe of declining EPS and lower PE indicates belief of value trap. Last year -- all year long -- we spent a whole lot of time in the 350 region.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 16:45:24 GMT -8
As if we wouldn't be taking profits at 600 this time around, iPad. Reminds me of all that scaling out I did this time last year in the low 400s. This is going to be very interesting... We have the setup for a repeat of last year. Don't know if it will happen. Just know we have the setup.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:46:06 GMT -8
LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU
(Though the multiple was considerably higher then, and there were many, many complications in 2011 that roiled the markets, including ailing Steve.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 16:48:37 GMT -8
A repeat of last year would be awesome. Somehow I think it'll be more muted, though (except for maybe volatility).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 7, 2013 16:51:38 GMT -8
A repeat of last year would be awesome. Somehow I think it'll be more muted, though (except for maybe volatility). More muted, like closer to 200 points than 300? ;D
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