chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 1, 2020 21:09:15 GMT -8
It's a couple of weeks old now, but DED's WHY APPLE'S GUIDANCE CORRECTION IS CAUSING LESS PANIC VERSUS 2019 provides excellent analysis of Apple punditry failures in 2019 in order to explain the relatively muted response to Apple's COVID-19 related guidance revision. Now of course, things have gone from bad to worse in the meantime, but his analyst skewering is still right on target.
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Post by elmar on Mar 2, 2020 4:14:58 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 2, 2020 5:03:54 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 2, 2020 6:43:40 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 2, 2020 8:54:34 GMT -8
So far the "buy at RSI 30 strategy" is looking good... we'll see where it goes from here...
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 2, 2020 9:00:41 GMT -8
... Prices are rarely what an impartial judge might consider the fair price. Prices are NEVER what an impartial judge might consider a fair price. Prices are ALWAYS the *average* of what *all* fair judges (everyone buying and selling) consider to be the fair price.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 2, 2020 9:21:52 GMT -8
... Prices are rarely what an impartial judge might consider the fair price. Prices are NEVER what an impartial judge might consider a fair price. Prices are ALWAYS the *average* of what *all* fair judges (everyone buying and selling) consider to be the fair price. I thought I choose my words carefully there because of how I see it of going from under valued to over valued, and back. It's like a Sine wave, or an ocean wave. Even a broken clock is right twice a day...as long as it's not digital. With Apple's much bigger market cap here vs back in the wild times of 2000, I expected AAPL to be a bit more stable. It was back in the days of paying XOM's market cap, back at around $300B, where the "too big to fail" is countered with the "too big to turn the ship quickly". As the P/E shrank, with AAPL growing to megacap size, it seemed like things would be much more steady. And it was in some ways, as Apple started spreading out the gain from an iPhone sale over 8 quarters. But as we saw with this drop, albeit Apple has more exposure in customers and manufacturing in China and so was an easy pay on betting against or for the coronavirus spread, AAPL dropped over 20% whereas the S&P only dropped 16%. But even with these gyrations, someone sitting back and putting a rough figure out there, say that AAPL is going to gain 15% a year, is dead-on some of these times. That's what a very long-term investor might do, just letting it ride. Likewise, that's what an impartial judge, or even a partial analyst, sometimes does. Let it ride! But yes, these up days feel pretty good. "Up Up Up we only go Up from here!!!"
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 2, 2020 9:28:31 GMT -8
Put in 200K into more leaps today.
For the first time ever, I bought MSFT. The way in which the Indian CEO Satya Nadela has steered the ship after taking over from Steve Bummer is admirable! I see Microsoft as always dominating the entriprise sector.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 2, 2020 10:36:26 GMT -8
Put in 200K into more leaps today. For the first time ever, I bought MSFT. The way in which the Indian CEO Satya Nadela has steered the ship after taking over from Steve Bummer is admirable! I see Microsoft as always dominating the entriprise sector. Looks like a nice purchase, for those willing to buy in the face of unknowns. This article talks about the 25 biggest monthly drops in the S&P 500 Last month's 8.2% drop wouldn't even make it on there, but the peak to trough intra-month drop of 12.7% would be in there. That must be with day-closing numbers. Intra-day, I see a drop of 15.5%. Regardless, in most cases it bounces back relatively quickly. Of note, which they sort of bring up later, is that 18 of these 25 are in the 1929-1940 range, and a couple of those are the only ones that didn't recover in 3-5 years. I only see 4 of these drops from my investing timeframe, and I don't even remember the drop in August of 1998, the 11th worst at 17%. Ahhh, to be young and carefree.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 2, 2020 10:56:13 GMT -8
I bought Microsoft in the 90's purely for mental health reasons. It was climbing steadily and at the time I was forced to use Windows every day. It was. and is, an abominable piece of software. I can think of nothing in the history of mankind that has wasted so many hours of so many peoples time. I first tried editing the flash screen to change the copyright warning to an apology. It was as easy as doing a Hex dump and searching for their text. Then when the program started, It said, "We are sincerely sorry for our incompetence". It didn't even affect a checksum on the file., Some security! When that wasn't enough, I bought enough shares so that the daily rise paid me back for the pain they caused. Over a year, it worked out pretty well, but you never forget or forgive them.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 2, 2020 11:07:42 GMT -8
I can think of nothing in the history of mankind that has wasted so many hours of so many peoples time. TV? The Internet? More specifically, Social Media?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 2, 2020 11:13:22 GMT -8
RIP Jack Welch. Really loved watching him on CNBC in the mornings when he’d come on for hours and just kick it. Gold.
Invest in a company that loves its shareholders as much as Jack.
And yes I am aware of his (out of context) comments a decade after he left GE about maximizing shareholder value being a dumb strategy. Obviously, it’s an end, not a means.
But Jack used to tell his managers that more retirees own GE than any stock, and we have a duty to them.
Weird that Welch seems to be imputed responsibility for the mess Immelt made. Do we blame Steve for what happened to Apple years after he left?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 2, 2020 11:24:24 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 2, 2020 13:07:37 GMT -8
Wow!
I don't believe we have ever had our accounts go up so much, in total dollars, in a single day. THANKS AAPL!!!!!
Helping push the market in the right direction, I bought a tiny amount of XOM in my Roth, and some SPY in an account I manage. Nothing dramatic, and sadly nothing AAPL. But the tides are turning, even if there may still be many waves during the recovery.
And congrats on the timing DreamRaj! And anyone else that picked up a little, over these last few days.
And of course, congrats to all AAPL holders! We are a lucky bunch, that Apple continues to make it wise to hold onto AAPL.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 2, 2020 13:30:59 GMT -8
7thBIGGEST DOLLAR GAIN (not split adjusted) of ALLTime
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Mar 2, 2020 13:50:41 GMT -8
7thBIGGEST DOLLAR GAIN (not split adjusted) of ALLTime nowhere near as good as your All Time High posts.... do some of them again
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Post by nwjade on Mar 2, 2020 14:33:44 GMT -8
Ah, the old rubber band snap back from being extremely over sold ploy. In one trading day, after all the carnage, we're now back at last Monday's levels. Who knows whether the market does a V shape recovery from here or retests the lows and they hold or what ? What would be the all clear signal(s) for those of you who went to the sidelines ahead of the sell off to get back in ? FYI: I've hunkering down, endured the pain for the nth time since 2006 maintaining my full position, as trying to time the market hasn't worked well in the past. Firestorm, reposting your Jan. 27th post. You scaled out in the $320's, curious will you wait for aapl to recover to those levels to get back in or scale in before then to pick up shares on sale... care to comment ? Over the last week I have sold all my personally managed stocks, including AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, and MSFT. The run up has been so fast that I decided to preserve retirement funds, since there is more than a negligible chance that this could be a big turning point in the market, caused by disease or politics. TSLA was my favorite climb, since I have long been an observer of Elon Musk. He may be even more revolutionary than Saint Jobs in his dents in the universe. I will get back in when the world changes a bit, which could be next month or next year. As of now, the American economy appears to have projected slower growth than we have had in many years.[/quote] [/quote]
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 2, 2020 20:03:54 GMT -8
Well, some Krugmanesque predictions. See you at 40,000 DJI and 10,000 QQQ.
Hope you all BotTFD!
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Post by BillH on Mar 3, 2020 0:12:44 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 3, 2020 3:15:53 GMT -8
Excellent article, Bill! Thanks for posting it.
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