Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Mar 9, 2020 2:46:24 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Mar 9, 2020 2:55:21 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by macster on Mar 9, 2020 5:44:04 GMT -8
Prolly the biggest confidence BTFD in history. Later this year we will have a another minor BTFD because Production will not be able to keep up with Demand.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Mar 9, 2020 5:59:58 GMT -8
Are there any predictions on support for this falling knife? There is a huge gap that's been created this morning. Will Apple step in and start buying? Please.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Mar 9, 2020 6:11:11 GMT -8
Let's have a contest: I say that the falling knife will end down 732 today, but it might be a point or two higher or lower.
By the way, who has the confidence to BTFD today? I am later in life, shall we say, and need to preserve rather than gamble, so it won't be me.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2020 7:14:09 GMT -8
At some point, there is going to be the mother of all buying opportunities.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Mar 9, 2020 7:51:23 GMT -8
At some point, there is going to be the mother of all buying opportunities. "At some point" is the key phrase here. Perhaps tomorrow, perhaps next month, perhaps in two years. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
|
|
|
Post by rmhe1999 on Mar 9, 2020 8:21:01 GMT -8
For those considering buying the dip I offer the following suggestion: scale in! In stating the obvious it helps smooth out your cost basis so that you're less concerned with catching the exact bottom. In addition, I'd like to offer this word of warning: this Corona Virus issue is going to get worse before it gets better. I am a federal employee at certain DC-based agency (you'll never guess which one). The communication that we've been getting (and I'm going to paraphrase this) is not to freak out when the US cases jump by a significant amount. The CDC just shipped out a ton of test kits to all the states. Starting this week, the US is going to actually be testing more than they have to date. Bad news is that cases are going to jump significantly. Good news is that with the numerator going up a lot, the death rate in the US will go down. This is the long way of saying that there is more pain ahead.
To answer a previous question, next level of support is 200 day SMA which is looking at ~$244.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Mar 9, 2020 8:36:04 GMT -8
For those considering buying the dip I offer the following suggestion: scale in! In stating the obvious it helps smooth out your cost basis so that you're less concerned with catching the exact bottom. In addition, I'd like to offer this word of warning: this Corona Virus issue is going to get worse before it gets better. I am a federal employee at certain DC-based agency (you'll never guess which one). The communication that we've been getting (and I'm going to paraphrase this) is not to freak out when the US cases jump by a significant amount. The CDC just shipped out a ton of test kits to all the states. Starting this week, the US is going to actually be testing more than they have to date. Bad news is that cases are going to jump significantly. Good news is that with the numerator going up a lot, the death rate in the US will go down. This is the long way of saying that there is more pain ahead. To answer a previous question, next level of support is 200 day SMA which is looking at ~$244. Thank you for sharing that.
|
|
|
Post by zzmac on Mar 9, 2020 8:43:09 GMT -8
At some point, there is going to be the mother of all buying opportunities. I don't know when that point will be but I'm sure as hell glad I'm not a Chinese woman wandering around wearing a facemask.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Mar 9, 2020 8:46:20 GMT -8
At some point, there is going to be the mother of all buying opportunities. "At some point" is the key phrase here. Perhaps tomorrow, perhaps next month, perhaps in two years. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Yea, prolly not this year.
|
|
platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
|
Post by platon on Mar 9, 2020 8:55:50 GMT -8
For those considering buying the dip I offer the following suggestion: scale in! In stating the obvious it helps smooth out your cost basis so that you're less concerned with catching the exact bottom. In addition, I'd like to offer this word of warning: this Corona Virus issue is going to get worse before it gets better. I am a federal employee at certain DC-based agency (you'll never guess which one). The communication that we've been getting (and I'm going to paraphrase this) is not to freak out when the US cases jump by a significant amount. The CDC just shipped out a ton of test kits to all the states. Starting this week, the US is going to actually be testing more than they have to date. Bad news is that cases are going to jump significantly. Good news is that with the numerator going up a lot, the death rate in the US will go down. This is the long way of saying that there is more pain ahead. To answer a previous question, next level of support is 200 day SMA which is looking at ~$244. Thank you for sharing that. That is the path I am following and as a retiree I (like Firestorm) need to protect a certain amount of my holdings so I have. I sold all of my Apple on the way down at $310 bought back 25% at $280 and am waiting to buy another 25% back at $260 (nearly got there this morning), and 25% at $240, and 25% at $220. Those numbers are not arbitrary or based on any particular chart, they are just numbers I feel comfortable at. If AAPL does not reach those numbers I will buy it all back when I am comfortable that the storm is over after the election cycle. I feel I can weather the storm and I hope all of you can as well.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Mar 9, 2020 9:21:35 GMT -8
PED has Wedbush on Apple’s Chinese iPhone shipments: ‘These are doomsday numbers’. The headline is misleading, as he maintains his $400 target. As a commenter says “Just like last year, this fire sale on AAPL is money in the bank for long term holders of AAPL...Meanwhile, Apple’s buybacks increase the percentage ownership of each remaining share – at huge bang per buck!”
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 9, 2020 9:49:22 GMT -8
That is the path I am following and as a retiree I (like Firestorm) need to protect a certain amount of my holdings so I have. I sold all of my Apple on the way down at $310 bought back 25% at $280 and am waiting to buy another 25% back at $260 (nearly got there this morning), and 25% at $240, and 25% at $220. Those numbers are not arbitrary or based on any particular chart, they are just numbers I feel comfortable at. If AAPL does not reach those numbers I will buy it all back when I am comfortable that the storm is over after the election cycle. I feel I can weather the storm and I hope all of you can as well. I went ahead and bought a little SPY in 2 different accounts. Nothing outlandish, and I quartered my initial purchase thoughts. No need to go crazy buying what is still falling, but looking 5-50 years out, this should be a decent time to pick up a little more. Normally I would do that with AAPL, but long term I am slowly moving into the S&P. The S&P is down a little over 18% from the intraday peak of 3393. Inversing that, there's a 22% climb to get back to the peak. It will happen sometime. It's looking less likely to happen within 6 month. It's unlikely it would take 6 years. 1-3 years is probably good betting odds for the 80% probability band, though we have fear here because there are unknowns. This article about Buffet's message in 2008, and the quotes from the followup from Marks of Oaktree Capital( his current letter is here), gave some good reminders:
|
|
platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
|
Post by platon on Mar 9, 2020 10:34:29 GMT -8
That is the path I am following and as a retiree I (like Firestorm) need to protect a certain amount of my holdings so I have. I sold all of my Apple on the way down at $310 bought back 25% at $280 and am waiting to buy another 25% back at $260 (nearly got there this morning), and 25% at $240, and 25% at $220. Those numbers are not arbitrary or based on any particular chart, they are just numbers I feel comfortable at. If AAPL does not reach those numbers I will buy it all back when I am comfortable that the storm is over after the election cycle. I feel I can weather the storm and I hope all of you can as well. I went ahead and bought a little SPY in 2 different accounts. Nothing outlandish, and I quartered my initial purchase thoughts. No need to go crazy buying what is still falling, but looking 5-50 years out, this should be a decent time to pick up a little more. Normally I would do that with AAPL, but long term I am slowly moving into the S&P. The S&P is down a little over 18% from the intraday peak of 3393. Inversing that, there's a 22% climb to get back to the peak. It will happen sometime. It's looking less likely to happen within 6 month. It's unlikely it would take 6 years. 1-3 years is probably good betting odds for the 80% probability band, though we have fear here because there are unknowns. This article about Buffet's message in 2008, and the quotes from the followup from Marks of Oaktree Capital( his current letter is here), gave some good reminders: Buffet's message should be reprinted here and it will be just as true in 5, 10 or 20 years, as it was the from the day he wrote it. We all may disagree on the reasons but you can't deny the results. For Buffet's letter: "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Mar 9, 2020 10:47:55 GMT -8
Look at historical P/E values, might give you a better idea where we might go.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Mar 9, 2020 12:21:58 GMT -8
Let's have a contest: I say that the falling knife will end down 732 today, but it might be a point or two higher or lower. By the way, who has the confidence to BTFD today? I am later in life, shall we say, and need to preserve rather than gamble, so it won't be me. I guess I was a bit off ... and, yes, I AM a bit off.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Mar 9, 2020 12:25:41 GMT -8
Look at historical P/E values, might give you a better idea where we might go. Basically Apple had a very low PE until the last run to 330 or so. If it goes to 12 again, not a good thought. Plus we have declining earnings...
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Mar 9, 2020 13:22:08 GMT -8
Even with the recent action it’s still at 21.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 9, 2020 13:33:27 GMT -8
Even with the recent action it’s still at 21. At some point the P/E range has been readjusted (for AAPL). But, a lowering tide will bring down (mostly) all ships. Right now AAPL is only down a little bit more than the S&P, percent-wise. I like seeing that, as opposed to the first few days where AAPL was down significantly more since it was the easy bet on the downside. The market will come around. But, just like other times, it may take longer (or even a lot longer) than some of us think it should take.
|
|
crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
|
Post by crispin on Mar 9, 2020 14:02:18 GMT -8
Well that was a big fat vote of no confidence from the markets today. Crisis and incompetence make a terrible stew. I’m staying long and strong as usual, but I feel badly for anyone who needs to sell now.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Mar 9, 2020 15:04:11 GMT -8
After hours is up by +$3.40. Someone is thinking it may be a good time to buy.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Mar 9, 2020 15:22:24 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 9, 2020 17:17:46 GMT -8
After hours is up by +$3.40. Someone is thinking it may be a good time to buy. It's all just a game! Think about the worst case, where one party is trying to manipulate things for their maximum benefit? When would they have the easiest time to manipulate the market? Maybe after-hours and futures? How much does it take to freak the population out? That might not be what's happening. But think of a day-trader, just trying to make a buck. If they could do that, with each surge and fall of the market, what would they do? Milk the market? Take money from the weak hands? Or those that get freaked out with a new and scary and unknown thing? Opportunities like this don't happen too often. If you're looking at making your extra 6% that only happens every 2 or 3 years, you go for it. That's not to say that they are spreading disinformation or lies. But rather that instead of coming in with strong support, I could see a algo being happy with a roller coaster, where instead of making 5% or 10% once, instead if makes 3% again and again and again. If, completely separated from the issue, you tried to write a program that would maximize the advantage made on some unknown dip, what would you set it to do? In pseudo-code, per the free CS50 courses that are available on edX.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2020 19:14:06 GMT -8
Well that was a big fat vote of no confidence from the markets today. Crisis and incompetence make a terrible stew. I’m staying long and strong as usual, but I feel badly for anyone who needs to sell now. Oh please, all the libs went crazy when DJT enacted the 14-day quarantine in January, but it will go down in history as decisive action that nipped the spread of Cononavirus in the bud. The US had 1000 Swine Flu deaths before Obama did shit. Of course the media covered for him, but is slamming Trump, because Fake News gonna fake! Honestly the media is loving making this out to be the next Black Death to make Trump look bad, but they can't keep up the Fake Flu News forever.
Futures are green. All is forgiven when we go up, even bemasked Chinese chicks!
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Mar 9, 2020 21:50:29 GMT -8
Well that was a big fat vote of no confidence from the markets today. Crisis and incompetence make a terrible stew. I’m staying long and strong as usual, but I feel badly for anyone who needs to sell now. Oh please, all the libs went crazy when DJT enacted the 14-day quarantine in January, but it will go down in history as decisive action that nipped the spread of Cononavirus in the bud. The US had 1000 Swine Flu deaths before Obama did shit. Of course the media covered for him, but is slamming Trump, because Fake News gonna fake! Honestly the media is loving making this out to be the next Black Death to make Trump look bad, but they can't keep up the Fake Flu News forever. Futures are green. All is forgiven when we go up, even bemasked Chinese chicks! To the Dungeon with you! And wake me up when the Dow goes up 2,000 points in a day, instead of celebrating a dead cat bounce.
|
|