Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 13, 2020 2:39:48 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Mar 13, 2020 4:21:48 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Mar 13, 2020 5:01:27 GMT -8
JD may be right. I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast (sorry no link) from a day or two ago and his guest was Amesh Adalja, MD, who is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks.
He is part of a team at John Hopkins who have been studying Covid19 and he said from studying South Korea (who has done the most testing) that the rate of death for the Coronavirus is between 0.1 -0.6, very similar to flu numbers but only 6 times higher for people more at risk. He sounded very knowledgeable and qualified and if correct the outcome of this virus will be way less than others have predicted. I encourage everyone to listen to the podcast and then you may want to back up the truck.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Mar 13, 2020 5:19:25 GMT -8
JD may be right. I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast (sorry no link) from a day or two ago and his guest was Amesh Adalja, MD, who is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. He is part of a team at John Hopkins who have been studying Covid19 and he said from studying South Korea (who has done the most testing) that the rate of death for the Coronavirus is between 0.1 -0.6, very similar to flu numbers but only 6 times higher for people more at risk. He sounded very knowledgeable and qualified and if correct the outcome of this virus will be way less than others have predicted. I encourage everyone to listen to the podcast and then you may want to back up the truck. Zzmac, thank you for sharing that, it does make a difference.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 13, 2020 6:00:18 GMT -8
I am completely with JD. Stunning all the cancellations. The virus doesn’t scare me, the extreme overreaction does.
And, Trump is handling the situation fine.
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Post by longsince98 on Mar 13, 2020 6:19:06 GMT -8
JD may be right. I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast (sorry no link) from a day or two ago and his guest was Amesh Adalja, MD, who is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. He is part of a team at John Hopkins who have been studying Covid19 and he said from studying South Korea (who has done the most testing) that the rate of death for the Coronavirus is between 0.1 -0.6, very similar to flu numbers but only 6 times higher for people more at risk. He sounded very knowledgeable and qualified and if correct the outcome of this virus will be way less than others have predicted. I encourage everyone to listen to the podcast and then you may want to back up the truck. Thank you for sharing - I’m also in th JD camp on this. Listening to the podcast does give more confidence. Nonetheless, this is one of those “what we have to fear is fear itself”, because the economic and social impact is as real as our fear will make them. (understanding we should “flatten the curve, etc)
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Mar 13, 2020 6:34:17 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 13, 2020 7:21:31 GMT -8
Look guys, I'm as political as anyone, but for the love of Apple and all that's holy, not everything should be viewed through a political lens. Government is going to government. Yes, presidents need to be competent, but DJT has pretty much signed every executive order imaginable. And remember the Harry Truman quote when Eisenhower got elected: "He'll sit here, and he'll say, 'Do this! Do that!' And nothing will happen. Poor Ike—it won't be a bit like the Army. He'll find it very frustrating." The President can sign executive orders and Congress can pass some palliative measures, but government is going to do what it does, for better or for worse. Honestly one of the President's biggest roles is setting the tone and using the bully pulpit. And I agree with his measured tone.
If you don't, I ask you, should Trump be calling for more panic? Is that what we really need? Or a Fireside Chat-like "the only thing to fear is fear itself" take? If you think this is a 500,000-1 million dead endgame, OK, gotcha. But even in that case, what should we be doing that we are not? Jesus they are ready to cancel Christmas. My school and just about every other college just went 100% online. If anything, we are overreacting. But, and I hate to say it, better overreact than under react? This is my take: We are overreacting, and it's causing short term pain. But under reacting and causing long term pain would not be better. Ideally we'd react just perfectly, and only time will tell if that's the case. Right now, I think the government has reacted well to an overblown crisis and the US response might be viewed in hindsight as a model of public health success.
Some observations: I am no fan of government, obviously; and I was against the creation of DHS, because a new giant bureaucracy is the opposite of what Bush ran on in 2000, and it does not logically follow that the formation of a giant government monolith helps with communication and efficiency of the deep state. I think the spygate/Russian disaster accentuates this point. BUT it may be times like this that a strong centralized and supposedly coordinated security apparatus may help curb this virus. After all, bioweapons were a concern after 9/11, and so there has to be some benefit to having DHS exist in this scenario. Recall that in 2018 the Trump Admin (building on Bush and Obama admin strategies), announced its
I'm no fan of government in general, but I seriously doubt any country comes anywhere close to the measures we had in place going into this. No, government is not perfect, which is why I don't want it taking over health care or anything else. But these are the times when it is good to have a strong national government and an effective federalist system. It's also always good to try to tap the power of the private sector, so ignore the snark that the President is trying to bully pulpit them. That's where the vaccine and masks and testing kits will come from.
Anyway, I think the deaths in the US (we'll call it 41) suggest that we have a handle on this. Those pricks on CNBC are loving the spike from 500 viewers to 750. No green MARKETS ARE UP YAY! chyron today, of course. This haircut we all took might be worth it in that this scare might be the mother of all preparedness drills for a real threat in the future. Government and businesses can look back at what we did and didn't do right, and adjust accordingly. And that includes our supply chain issues. Hopefully this has been a learning moment for Tim, not to mention, pharma, which outsources a scary amount of drug precursors to China (who knew when we were popping Ibuprofen or most other meds that the chemicals came from China?! Holy bat soup, Batman!). Seasonality: “Coronaviruses have seasonality," says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist with the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. “We do know that certain environmental conditions favor the transmission of viruses and that cold weather, the humidity, all of that, affect trajectory. There's a good reason to believe [this virus] will have that seasonality." Temps begin to rise in March (woo-hoo, go global warming!). I find it unlikely that this virus is going to take off and kill a million people in spring when most coronaviruses have died off in the past.
I also believe that panic has a shelf life. At some point people get panic fatigue and just say "fuck it, let's move on with life." When people get inconvenienced and annoyed enough, they start to rebel against the endless scare mongering and common sense prevails. The truth is, I rarely see Americans with masks. I live in a very Chinese area so I see masks, but they are either Chinese nationals or their children. And yes I eye roll at them (there are like 5 cases in my whole state, so it's just ridiculous). I've long been a gemaphobe who slathers on the hand sanitizer hourly, but I'm not prepared to wear a mask.
I think this is overblown and we will look back at this and just shake our heads.
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Post by hyci004 on Mar 13, 2020 7:56:02 GMT -8
JD may be right. I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast (sorry no link) from a day or two ago and his guest was Amesh Adalja, MD, who is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. He is part of a team at John Hopkins who have been studying Covid19 and he said from studying South Korea (who has done the most testing) that the rate of death for the Coronavirus is between 0.1 -0.6, very similar to flu numbers but only 6 times higher for people more at risk. He sounded very knowledgeable and qualified and if correct the outcome of this virus will be way less than others have predicted. I encourage everyone to listen to the podcast and then you may want to back up the truck. South Korea managed this situation perfectly by first acknowledging the issue. You can’t manage a crisis if you can’t measure what is wrong. Testing is critical.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 13, 2020 8:06:13 GMT -8
Yes, people are over reacting out of an abundance of caution. And for that reason, it will be resolved over time. If everybody just sat around on their fat asses and said be patient, it’ll be fine, that wouldn’t work. But it would cause fear to spread and market’s to crash. Hey, if you own it when things are great then you have to own it when shit goes sideways.
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Post by macster on Mar 13, 2020 8:09:29 GMT -8
Someone just had her hand sanitizer stolen out of her unlocked car in a Walmart parking lot LOL. People coming out of Giants with multiple carts full of stuff. Oh the humanity! Imagine what a real emergency would be like. Our world is so vulnerable. Very few are self reliant these days. God help us all! But I'm optimistic, this will all end sometime next month.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Mar 13, 2020 10:11:37 GMT -8
Thanks JD, that was well said.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 13, 2020 10:55:08 GMT -8
“Coronaviruses have seasonality," There are 3 viruses like the kind we are experiencing. Mars Sars and this one. Pretty hard to make general statements. Most viruses have seasonality. That is a fact. Trump will be speaking shortly. The market could go down 1000 points quickly. Seat belts on. Also it is very true that the neo con mania for cutting programs and giving money to the rich has played a role. The CDC funding has gone down 12 years in a row. Trump was actually factual when he said Obama cut funding but Obama is not a liberal. He admires Reagan and wanted the grand bargain to cut SS. So what do you expect? If they had properly funded research a model for a vaccine for these rare viruses would have been created. Work was stopped 4 years ago as trials were being prepared. Responsible government funded by fair taxation is needed for civilized life. Otherwise move to your mega million dollar underground bunker if you have one.
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Post by aaplsauce on Mar 13, 2020 11:14:36 GMT -8
It will take some time, but a cure for the coronavirus will be produced. There will be a lot of pain until then. Unfortunately, the world still hasn't found a cure for other viruses such as denial, willful ignorance, hate, racism, etc.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 13, 2020 12:03:20 GMT -8
Wow!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 13, 2020 12:04:25 GMT -8
“Coronaviruses have seasonality," There are 3 viruses like the kind we are experiencing. Mars Sars and this one. Pretty hard to make general statements. Most viruses have seasonality. That is a fact. Trump will be speaking shortly. T he market could go down 1000 points quickly. Seat belts on. Also it is very true that the neo con mania for cutting programs and giving money to the rich has played a role. The CDC funding has gone down 12 years in a row. Trump was actually factual when he said Obama cut funding but Obama is not a liberal. He admires Reagan and wanted the grand bargain to cut SS. So what do you expect? If they had properly funded research a model for a vaccine for these rare viruses would have been created. Work was stopped 4 years ago as trials were being prepared. Responsible government funded by fair taxation is needed for civilized life. Otherwise move to your mega million dollar underground bunker if you have one. Hey, nice call there! DOW went up over 1000 points since the President's remarks began. But keep on snarkin', because that is so helpful in a crisis. Your prognostications have helped to fill the hole in all our hearts that sponge's abdication left behind. It will take some time, but a cure for the coronavirus will be produced. There will be a lot of pain until then. Unfortunately, the world still hasn't found a cure for other viruses such as denial, willful ignorance, hate, racism, etc. Aw, what a nice sentiment. But you forgot one pathogen that seems to be running amok lately:
I think we've turned a corner on the virus and the markets. Sorry/not sorry if this news does not cheer up everyone.
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Post by playultimate on Mar 13, 2020 12:05:07 GMT -8
what was that
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 13, 2020 12:43:17 GMT -8
what was that Yeah weird pop at the end there.
Make Apple Great Again!
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 13, 2020 12:48:40 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 13, 2020 13:35:01 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week Wow, you really went all in. That works, when it works. OTOH, at the end of yesterday I put in an order to buy back my 50 Jan '21 330 covered calls, aiming for a nice break even at $10.20. It didn't quite fill, and then with the AH drop I lowered it down to $7.20, figuring I might even make a little profit. It didn't fill. Oh well....it's just some insurance. Good to see progress is being made, and that the market is liking it. I didn't hear the full speech. We're finally supposed to get some snow. It could be a double positive come Monday. And the cousins might come up a week early, since LA county schools are shutting down. As long as they bring their own TP, we're ready for them. And with a dip in temps, we'll all be in full facemasks and goggles while skiing.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 13, 2020 13:45:08 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week I don’t know about turning the corner next week, that might be a little too optimistic but I hope you’re right. The potus has finally started taking this seriously and made a commitment to greatly increase testing which is a good thing. The problem for the economy is that the consumer (here and abroad) is shutting down and as we all know, that represents 70% of the U.S. economy. So, how soon does that situation improve when you have so many infected folks out there ? I hope things turn around quickly but I’m thinking it might be quite a while before we can get back to where we were. I heard potus is trying to get the election cancelled due to the virus but that’s not gonna help him 😷 Great day for Apple, I’m sure the stock and the company will recover and be better than ever. Good luck to all the traders.
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Mar 13, 2020 19:54:38 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week I managed to get back all of the Grandson's shares yesterday as well---at my price point. I hope I made them a little money in the process. I think the answer to that will be clear within a month. I told them I would double their shares if it drops below $200. Mistake, I think they are hoping it will go down now.
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Mar 13, 2020 23:36:59 GMT -8
what was that Yeah weird pop at the end there. Make Apple Great Again! Dang JD I wish you would start that blog you have discussed before. That would be both an education in politics as well as AAAPL. If you ever decide to do it please post the address here so that those of us who are fans of your posts can sign up. I need to get upstairs earlier because I usually don't see these daily posts until late at night or early morning.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 14, 2020 2:58:16 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 14, 2020 3:03:10 GMT -8
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 15, 2020 15:15:34 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week
hey dreamRaj.... you're on margin? and buying calls?
were you investing in 2007-2009? how did the account fare?
i'm not trying to troll.... i'm very much long (and underwater) with almost no cash left to buy, unless i go on margin.... so my ideal would be same as yours: a quick v-shaped recovery....
however, i recognize there's at least a possibility that there will be more pain, e.g. 40%-50% drop from the top (in AAPL and indexes)
good luck to us all.... so far futures are not happy despite fed cutting rates to zero (and trump saying 'relax')
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 15, 2020 21:28:09 GMT -8
Well, yesterday I took my chance and did my final coronavirus BTFD. As a result, I knew I'd be getting a frikkin MARGIN CALL today and I did. Luckily that got cancelled with the meteoric rise of AAPL today. Like JD said, it looks like we'll be turning the corner with this soon. Hopefully as soon as next week hey dreamRaj.... you're on margin? and buying calls?
were you investing in 2007-2009? how did the account fare? i'm not trying to troll.... i'm very much long (and underwater) with almost no cash left to buy, unless i go on margin.... so my ideal would be same as yours: a quick v-shaped recovery.... however, i recognize there's at least a possibility that there will be more pain, e.g. 40%-50% drop from the top (in AAPL and indexes) good luck to us all.... so far futures are not happy despite fed cutting rates to zero (and trump saying 'relax')
I was on margin buying calls back then. Ummm, it was very volatile, and is the reason I don't use many options these days. OTOH, with the rate cut, my margin rate is now down below AAPL's dividend rate. I will be keeping that in mind, though am in no rush to over utilize my buying power, even if I think this week might turn the corner in terms of the financial markets. I don't see a full on V, but even being flat or up 5% for the week (it will likely be volatile), would be slightly calming. Careful out there. (Prologue: People often ask on the margin rates. I asked my brokerage to match Interactive Brokers over a decade ago, and they did. It sounds like others will match too, and if they won't, then move. In sizable amounts, IB charges the fed rate plus 0.5%. That puts current rates at something like 0.75%. Most people don't try to get this matching done, but if you consistently borrow some on margin, you should. OTOH, if you haven't used margin in the past, my general recommendation is to not do it. It causes you to have to sell out at the bottom when you get a margin call, if you borrow too much. I've done that, multiple times, such as in 2000 and 2008. It's tough, and not the pain I want others to have to go through. Careful out there.)
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