Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 16, 2020 2:31:53 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 16, 2020 2:50:41 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Mar 16, 2020 3:00:04 GMT -8
I thought I'd missed out on buying the low on Friday after the closing rally so if we open 10% down today then that is a gift.
Soon we'll hear about Apple's plan to re-open stores in 2 weeks time, possibly with a 2 weeks closed, 2 weeks open rotation.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 16, 2020 3:01:07 GMT -8
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Post by playultimate on Mar 16, 2020 4:58:02 GMT -8
I think I'll just stay in my bunker today and watch the bobcats outside my window.
AAPL's down $38 (11%) so far. BAC is down 17% this morning. Going to be an ugly. day.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 16, 2020 5:05:51 GMT -8
Several weeks ago, when some of us predicted that this virus was going to be a black swan event, some of the more conservative members of this forum claimed that Coronavirus was less potent than the flu. Yet it has become so potent that it threatens to bring down the economy, perhaps for a very long time. I sold ALL the stocks I control a day after the peak, including AAPL, acting on my suspicions that we were due for a hard fall. I feel fortunate right now, but time will tell if American society will still be all right a year from now. I still wouldn't buy the dip, and I think we are in for months of turmoil. Meanwhile, the FED has reintroduced quantitative easing and dropped the interest rate to zero–actions that the right-wing here complained about bitterly for years. Good luck everyone!
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 16, 2020 5:09:46 GMT -8
I update my virus chart daily at about 8 AM Central. You can find it here
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 16, 2020 5:31:18 GMT -8
Halted in 2 seconds of opening?!
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Post by silkstone on Mar 16, 2020 5:34:57 GMT -8
Several weeks ago, when some of us predicted that this virus was going to be a black swan event, some of the more conservative members of this forum claimed that Coronavirus was less potent than the flu. Yet it has become so potent that it threatens to bring down the economy, perhaps for a very long time. I sold ALL the stocks I control a day after the peak, including AAPL, acting on my suspicions that we were due for a hard fall. I feel fortunate right now, but time will tell if American society will still be all right a year from now. I still wouldn't buy the dip, and I think we are in for months of turmoil. Meanwhile, the FED has reintroduced quantitative easing and dropped the interest rate to zero–actions that the right-wing here complained about bitterly for years. Good luck everyone! Good move, I wish I’d have listened to my instincts but like many there here, I rode out 2008 so I’ll just have to do it again.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 16, 2020 5:37:26 GMT -8
I update my virus chart daily at about 8 AM Central. You can find it hereVirus chart is very helpful. Thank you.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 16, 2020 5:50:36 GMT -8
Several weeks ago, when some of us predicted that this virus was going to be a black swan event, some of the more conservative members of this forum claimed that Coronavirus was less potent than the flu. Yet it has become so potent that it threatens to bring down the economy, perhaps for a very long time. I sold ALL the stocks I control a day after the peak, including AAPL, acting on my suspicions that we were due for a hard fall. I feel fortunate right now, but time will tell if American society will still be all right a year from now. I still wouldn't buy the dip, and I think we are in for months of turmoil. Meanwhile, the FED has reintroduced quantitative easing and dropped the interest rate to zero–actions that the right-wing here complained about bitterly for years. Good luck everyone! Good move, I wish I’d have listened to my instincts but like many there here, I rode out 2008 so I’ll just have to do it again. My issue is that I turn 70 tomorrow and no longer necessarily have time to recoup losses like I did in the previous republican financial disaster (2008), so I have had to mix daring buys (like TSLA) with conservative moves to protect the small amount that I have.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 16, 2020 5:54:38 GMT -8
Good move, I wish I’d have listened to my instincts but like many there here, I rode out 2008 so I’ll just have to do it again. My issue is that I turn 70 tomorrow and no longer necessarily have time to recoup losses like I did in the previous republican financial disaster (2008), so I have had to mix daring buys (like TSLA) with conservative moves to protect the small amount that I have. Well, we should all be getting a great opportunity to buy at fire sale prices sometime in the hopefully not too distant future. But, between now and then a lot of money is going to be lost.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 16, 2020 5:55:34 GMT -8
Halted in 2 seconds of opening?!
hope we don't have to deal with level 2 today... it looked close to that for a minute there! (-11%)
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Post by ericinaustin on Mar 16, 2020 6:24:33 GMT -8
All good points but I just can’t resist these prices right now.
Just put 100 k into Apple and will add another 50k if we go lower next week. Fully expect us to struggle for the next two quarters but then to rapidly move back to normal. Also looking at Wynn casinos in the 50s.
Ericinaustin
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 16, 2020 6:34:40 GMT -8
Perfect time for Apple to raise money plus add their own and buy back 400 million shares to bring down the float to under 4 bln.
I was going to say 200 million but what the heck, go for it!!
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 16, 2020 6:49:00 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 16, 2020 6:50:19 GMT -8
Would it be good time to float another sizable bond - as noted on this board as essentially free borrowing - to fund increased buybacks? Uh, except for the optics. Yes, if it is possible to get a bond deal done, this might be a good time to do it. I don't see a problem with optics because the bond market is hardly given any attention by the public or the media.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 16, 2020 8:35:31 GMT -8
ok so fed's out of ammo, states are declaring states of emergency and shutting down the country in patches, test kits are slowly trickling, and it's still a guessing game whether this is a tiny blip and over-reaction (and huge BTFD opportunity)... or a 9/11 or 2008 level black swan event.
can we all at least agree that the answer to that question will be how the coronavirus progresses (or not) in the us and around the world? clearly, if it becomes a major pandemic, it will force recessions all around, but if it is contained soon, we can all cheer a big rebound
i've read many opinions here and want to quantify the sentiment... so i created this POLL in the dungeon (not sure why the coronavirus thread is in the dungeon, but fine, let's put the poll next to it):
please vote!
and stay safe
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Post by hyci004 on Mar 16, 2020 9:03:10 GMT -8
Looks like it is safer to travel to China, South Korea and Japan than to stay here at this moment.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 16, 2020 9:27:04 GMT -8
I think the current virus issue is way, way overdone. It is more like a new kind of flu, no more dangerous. The numbers will tell in a couple of months, and I could be wrong. I believe just about everyone will be exposed, the vast majority with no real symptoms. See www.newsmax.com/us/johns-hopkins-doctor-professor-hysteria/2020/03/14/id/958328/The nasty part is many claim all the "precautions" and closings and cancellations were the answer. The precautions etc. do not answer this question. "How come so few people have symptoms or die after a few months, even though most were not exposed earlier?” The answer. They had been exposed. Almost everyone was exposed. Their immune system, as for most people, protected them earlier. Now there will be few new cases.
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Post by elmar on Mar 16, 2020 9:33:14 GMT -8
This is also a very interesting chart from the WHO: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) SituationIf you select "cumulative cases" in the left bar and then select various countries in the right bar you can clearly recognise the exponential nature of this. Only China and Korea have a slowdown at the top and I do not believe the latest Chinese numbers.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 16, 2020 9:34:12 GMT -8
I think the current virus issue is way, way overdone. It is more like a new kind of flu, no more dangerous. The numbers will tell in a couple of months, and I could be wrong. Why wait a couple of months for the numbers? You're wrong. Period.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 16, 2020 9:51:57 GMT -8
it's free to vote, i swear! (unlike c-19 testing which might cost ya )
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 16, 2020 10:41:01 GMT -8
I think the current virus issue is way, way overdone. It is more like a new kind of flu, no more dangerous. The numbers will tell in a couple of months, and I could be wrong. Why wait a couple of months for the numbers? You're wrong. Period. Are there any numbers, anywhere, that say that it's less potent in spreading or deaths than a regular strain of the flu. Very potent versions might approach it and gets you to the right order of magnitude (so within 10x), but all data I've seen says this is significantly worse overall than the common flu, aside from to the under 10 crowd. Go kids! There's lots of ways to look at this, and many different aspects. Look long term, starting a year out. Restaurants? Movie theaters? Telecommuting? Conference halls and resorts? Airlines? Cruise Ships? It's easy to make best case and worst case scenarios, but the tough part is deciding on something plausible and likely, in the middle. I don't know the answers, and the guesses are based on my own feeling of severity, cross-pollinated with my lack of fear for the health of my direct family due to this, while also having parents on both sides that are in their 70's, a lot of older folks in town, and the death of my 78 year old neighbor 5 months ago. Everyone is going to feel a little different, but I hope most can decide to meet somewhere in the middle of it not being a complete non-event while also not being the end of all mankind. And with that it's time for coursework for the kids. They're home for at least the next 4 weeks. Pandemic Psychology 421! They've already mastered basic snow removal 101, with one going through the advanced internship program, though we're still working through bedroom cleaning.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 16, 2020 10:48:05 GMT -8
I think the current virus issue is way, way overdone. It is more like a new kind of flu, no more dangerous. The numbers will tell in a couple of months, and I could be wrong. I believe just about everyone will be exposed, the vast majority with no real symptoms. See www.newsmax.com/us/johns-hopkins-doctor-professor-hysteria/2020/03/14/id/958328/The nasty part is many claim all the "precautions" and closings and cancellations were the answer. The precautions etc. do not answer this question. "How come so few people have symptoms or die after a few months, even though most were not exposed earlier?” The answer. They had been exposed. Almost everyone was exposed. Their immune system, as for most people, protected them earlier. Now there will be few new cases. Go watch the video I posted yesterday.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 16, 2020 11:57:11 GMT -8
Why wait a couple of months for the numbers? You're wrong. Period. Are there any numbers, anywhere, that say that it's less potent in spreading or deaths than a regular strain of the flu. Very potent versions might approach it and gets you to the right order of magnitude (so within 10x), but all data I've seen says this is significantly worse overall than the common flu, aside from to the under 10 crowd. Go kids! Well there are the seasonal flu numbers of 22,000 US deaths and counting, versus 4,237 covid-19 cases and 72 US deaths. That's about 1.7% death rate but that's without testing everyone has been shrieking about, and so it's pretty clear that asymptomatic people aren't being tested; whereas, we've said before that the cruise ship numbers where everyone was tested showed a <1% death rate. Meanwhile, there are 7074 global deaths from covid-19 three days before spring. Even China "only" has 3,213 deaths among a billion people. I guess you'd have to make the case that a typically seasonal strain of virus has suddenly mutated to being worse in warmer weather? Several weeks ago, when some of us predicted that this virus was going to be a black swan event, some of the more conservative members of this forum claimed that Coronavirus was less potent than the flu. Yet it has become so potent that it threatens to bring down the economy, perhaps for a very long time. This is a strawman. Covid-19 didn't "bring down the economy", but the reaction to it might. My point was and remains the response and panic is an overreaction (the panic is causing the economic problems not the underlying virus). But say you disagree, this virus is Walking Dead territory. OK then, what if there are ultimately far less US deaths than seasonal flu? Then the only conclusion is that the government (in cooperation with business and the people) did a great job containing it?
Seems you want it both ways. This is the worst pathogen ever but Republicans are bringing down the economy but if the numbers don't turn out that bad we got lucky? Can you even try to be reasonable and fair here? Compared to what? I ask all fair minded people on this board what should we be comparing this event (and the response thereto) to? Seasonal Flu? H1N1? SARS? And tell us what exactly you'd do differently instead of just snarking.
Look, if you're 70 and retired and need the money going forward to live on, you should probably be out of the market in the best of times. My parents are older than that, but they easily live off of their Apple dividends and Social Security and some other income sources, and their house is paid for, plus there are huge tax implications until one parent dies and gets the tax basis step-up, so we let it ride. Not like they need to make some huge purchases.
Honestly if they are going to shut down the whole fucking country they should consider closing the stock markets. This is just ridiculous.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 16, 2020 12:17:42 GMT -8
Are there any numbers, anywhere, that say that it's less potent in spreading or deaths than a regular strain of the flu. Very potent versions might approach it and gets you to the right order of magnitude (so within 10x), but all data I've seen says this is significantly worse overall than the common flu, aside from to the under 10 crowd. Go kids! Well there are the seasonal flu numbers of 22,000 US deaths and counting, versus 4,237 covid-19 cases and 72 US deaths. That's about 1.7% death rate but that's without testing everyone has been shrieking about, and so it's pretty clear that asymptomatic people aren't being tested; whereas, we've said before that the cruise ship numbers where everyone was tested showed a <1% death rate. Meanwhile, there are 7074 global deaths from covid-19 three days before spring. Even China "only" has 3,213 deaths among a billion people. I guess you'd have to make the case that a typically seasonal strain of virus has suddenly mutated to being worse in warmer weather? Several weeks ago, when some of us predicted that this virus was going to be a black swan event, some of the more conservative members of this forum claimed that Coronavirus was less potent than the flu. Yet it has become so potent that it threatens to bring down the economy, perhaps for a very long time. This is a strawman. Covid-19 didn't "bring down the economy", but the reaction to it might. My point was and remains the response and panic is an overreaction (the panic is causing the economic problems not the underlying virus). But say you disagree, this virus is Walking Dead territory. OK then, what if there are ultimately far less US deaths than seasonal flu? Then the only conclusion is that the government (in cooperation with business and the people) did a great job containing it?
Seems you want it both ways. This is the worst pathogen ever but Republicans are bringing down the economy but if the numbers don't turn out that bad we got lucky? Can you even try to be reasonable and fair here? Compared to what? I ask all fair minded people on this board what should we be comparing this event (and the response thereto) to? Seasonal Flu? H1N1? SARS? And tell us what exactly you'd do differently instead of just snarking.
Look, if you're 70 and retired and need the money going forward to live on, you should probably be out of the market in the best of times. My parents are older than that, but they easily live off of their Apple dividends and Social Security and some other income sources, and their house is paid for, plus there are huge tax implications until one parent dies and gets the tax basis step-up, so we let it ride. Not like they need to make some huge purchases.
Honestly if they are going to shut down the whole fucking country they should consider closing the stock markets. This is just ridiculous.
Yep, I think they are considering closure of the stock market. At least that’s what I thought I heard on CNBC this morning. It might be the prudent thing to do ? The market’s are crying out for some good leadership but all they’ve been getting is fumbling and excuses which exacerbates the problem. As far as what we should be comparing this event to.....I don’t think there is a good comparison and that’s why people are scared. It’s the old fear vs greed thing and we are definitely in fear mode right now. I’m tentatively planning to buy more Apple at $190 but we might not go that low. I also think Apple is going to be one of the first to recover after we get to the bottom. I’m hoping we can start going back up after the number of cases peak in this country but that might not work if other countries like Korea and China see cases pick back up.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 16, 2020 12:38:00 GMT -8
Are there any numbers, anywhere, that say that it's less potent in spreading or deaths than a regular strain of the flu. Very potent versions might approach it and gets you to the right order of magnitude (so within 10x), but all data I've seen says this is significantly worse overall than the common flu, aside from to the under 10 crowd. Go kids! Well there are the seasonal flu numbers of 22,000 US deaths and counting, versus 4,237 covid-19 cases and 72 US deaths. That's about 1.7% death rate but that's without testing everyone has been shrieking about, and so it's pretty clear that asymptomatic people aren't being tested; whereas, we've said before that the cruise ship numbers where everyone was tested showed a <1% death rate. Meanwhile, there are 7074 global deaths from covid-19 three days before spring. Even China "only" has 3,213 deaths among a billion people. I guess you'd have to make the case that a typically seasonal strain of virus has suddenly mutated to being worse in warmer weather? You're right, total spreading and deaths is a whole different stat, likely (hopefully) very dependent on it's timestamp in the normal season. The post I was responding to was about the strain of flu itself, not the total outcome. It's Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt that is the driver on multiple fronts here, but this FUD is much different from the fake FUD that AAPL often gets. Honestly if they are going to shut down the whole fucking country they should consider closing the stock markets. This is just ridiculous. Yep! It seems like that should have been announced last Friday, to close for a week, or two. Or even a choice made Sunday. The SF Bay Area, through 6 counties, announced a Shelter in Place a little before the market closed. Whether you agree or disagree, it is what it is. www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/shelter-in-place-San-Francisco-Mayor-London-Breed-15135075.phpSimilarly, CNNs article of all US ski resorts closing down exactly matches our small resort's notices and closing. I'm pretty certain someone played their hand, worked with the big resorts first, and then shut it all down. The little guys got in one extra day of lift tickets, or a partial day since they stopped selling tickets. Crazy times, and things are happening. The market should be closed, and with lots of things shutting while not announcing it all, likely in an attempt to not panic. I think the market will shut down very soon so that people can adjust to this temporary modification in the name of containment without further panic. Like The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, "Don't Panic". Where's my towel? 25% odds on the market not opening tomorrow? It seems like it should be 50%, given the optics on financials. If managed, this shouldn't be a long term issue, looking 1-3-5 years out. But short term, a 30% fall is tough for anyone who hasn't seen multiple 85% falls in account valuation. Shut it down, before Ma and Pa panic and sell near the low.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 16, 2020 12:52:22 GMT -8
nice close! trump should send a signed stock chart to lou dobbs, lol (he just shouldn't forget to invert it first)
***
jd, 4aapl... do you seriously think closing the market would help?!
i can't even... free, capitalist country and all that, but let's lock down and block one of THE main tools of capitalism.... open and functioning markets!
no amount of facepalm emoji can express my astonishment....
and then what.... there's other markets around the globe still trading; won't europe fall like 25% the next day?
and what happens when us markets re-open, they'll magically start rising?
but yeah, it might happen.... in trump's interest not to have markets go back to levels when he took office
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 16, 2020 12:56:50 GMT -8
historic day!
we're in great company now... 1929 and 1987, WOW! (forget about 9/11 and 2008)
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