Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2020 2:58:15 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Mar 17, 2020 4:43:32 GMT -8
This is not the light at the end of the tunnel. A doctor just reported on CNN that people are coming into ERs fast and furious and in his hospital alone 6 doctors have the virus. It’s crucial that people stay home and social distance which is the key to stopping this virus. The doctor said he has seen full parking lots at shopping centres and that’s scary.
The Chinese market at least for now has recovered and so will Apple and our markets but the Key is social distancing.
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Post by playultimate on Mar 17, 2020 5:07:45 GMT -8
DOW down 3000 and up 100 in premarket. I'll take that it is green, but we are nowhere close to beginning to recover. Hopefully this Corona FUD will only last another month or so.
(And yes, I call it FUD. CUBoulder et al. are claiming that their campus protocols need to "change" when there has not been any change to the current local circumstances; nationally things may have changed but not locally. Local towns et al. are declaring states of emergency due to the fallout (economics) from the virus; not from viral infections themselves.)
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 17, 2020 7:30:17 GMT -8
I mentioned last night about investing in Moderna the company that developed the hoped for vaccine that was first to testing on humans. This article details why they were so quick and provides an interview with the woman who received the first inoculation. I would say the company is confident because they are being very public about it, but it could be they are driving the price up in the hopes of dumping the stock before the results are in. It looks as if I will lose the stock on my $30 strike price for Friday but if I do I will rebuy with the profits from that sell and hold for results. I love the chance to gamble with some else's money. www.freep.com/story/news/health/2020/03/17/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-underway-seattle-photos-first-shots/5065909002/"Developed by scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and at the biotechnology company Moderna, Inc., the experimental vaccine uses messenger RNA and "directs the body’s cells to express a virus protein that it is hoped will elicit a robust immune response," the institute said in a news release. Scientists working on a vaccine for Middle East respiratory syndrome, caused by another coronavirus, were able to develop the COVID-19 experimental vaccine quickly once the genetic information for the new coronavirus became available." Stock as of 10:29 CST 31.78+5.29 (+19.97%)
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Post by firestorm on Mar 17, 2020 7:31:08 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 17, 2020 8:14:51 GMT -8
My best guess with these gyrations is the search for a bottom to the mess - I snatched up a ton of accidental hi yielders today - PRU, DOW, CQP, and LYB - all in about the 10% yield range - crazy when you consider the dividend coverage and dividend history of all of these. Also added some SWKS as it has corrected even more than AAPL - although I did add 1K shares of AAPL last week (too soon) at around 261 but I feel by this time next year, pretty much anything you buy will be looking pretty darned good - Also - Monday trading is interesting - two factors - a buildup of more bad news about the virus - but also "mutual fund Monday" - i.e. in a healthy market retail investors look over prices over the weekend and put in orders for Monday - and the same in reverse in terms of selling pressure - just a theory but sadly - retail investors tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms.
Also the computer trading HAS to be a factor in the speed of these crazy moves as well. Looking forward to more boring days ahead. good luck all!
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Post by zebrum on Mar 17, 2020 8:27:21 GMT -8
Dividends will be cancelled this year
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 8:30:29 GMT -8
Also the computer trading HAS to be a factor in the speed of these crazy moves as well. Looking forward to more boring days ahead. good luck all! His brother Pete is calling for a return to the uptick rule.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 8:52:59 GMT -8
EU To Shut Borders As France, Germany Tighten Restrictions To Control CoronavirusToo bad the EU didn't have more decisive leadership, as Europe is now the epicenter of Covid-19. They let a bunch of Chinese nationals fly in without any testing or screening. And good thing that the US has good leadership, and the Democrats haven't been in charge of things. If Nancy Pelosi had her way, our borders and airports would be WIDE open. Decisive leadership by the President saving the day!
US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179
EDIT:US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163
EDIT:US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 17, 2020 9:41:34 GMT -8
I just added to my Jan '22 call spread position ... probably too early, but I'll add more later as warranted. Remember when I said I "forgot" to place my call spreads last year (and that it was too late due to the huge gains)? Well, this time I'm remembering to place them.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 17, 2020 9:48:27 GMT -8
Dividends will be cancelled this year By this you mean "some" dividends will be canceled this year, right? I hit that years ago with BP, having them lower the dividend after I bought. I'd expect the same from some oil companies now, but the majors would have to break their very long streak of raising theirs, so they might not. But a lot of companies out there, especially things like consumer staples that are still churning, will keep it up. OTOH, IGT or things like that likely will drop theirs.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 17, 2020 11:31:19 GMT -8
"Also the computer trading HAS to be a factor in the speed of these crazy moves as well. Looking forward to more boring days ahead. good luck all!
I hit that years ago with BP, having them lower the dividend after I bought. I'd expect the same from some oil companies now, but the majors would have to break their very long streak of raising theirs, so they might not."
Tiffany has an offer of 135 cash. It is at 114. Who is selling beside the ETF computer trades that sell all? Tif is not a bad way to hold. It is probably worth 130 without the offer. Same with ABBV AGN.
Oil companies are facing inevitable decrease in aggregate demand. Why would you buy them?
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Post by duckpins on Mar 17, 2020 11:32:19 GMT -8
I just added to my Jan '22 call spread position ... probably too early, but I'll add more later as warranted. Remember when I said I "forgot" to place my call spreads last year (and that it was too late due to the huge gains)? Well, this time I'm remembering to place them. If you are going to say this say what your spreads are.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 17, 2020 11:34:05 GMT -8
oo bad the EU didn't have more decisive leadership,
The EU is run by bankers who want open borders for cheap labor for their oligarchs. They are trying to destroy European socialist democracies the way Reagan and the Republicans have destroyed the New Deal. That is their first priority.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 17, 2020 11:48:55 GMT -8
I snatched up a ton of accidental hi yielders today - PRU, DOW, CQP, and LYB You can buy an ETF DIV at 13% yield. High Yielding ETFs don't have the 1 risk stock. Buying high yielding oils or consumer stocks does.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2020 12:05:36 GMT -8
It feels good to be green, again, if only a little.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Mar 17, 2020 13:04:19 GMT -8
JD, you dropped this:
/s
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Post by silkstone on Mar 17, 2020 13:06:51 GMT -8
It feels good to be green, again, if only a little. Yes, trump did much better today, he and his team had good ideas about what we need to do. They did a much better job of putting things in perspective and embracing the situation as an opportunity. And as of right now, the market’s are appreciating the effort. I do appreciate it when people excel at what they’re trying to do.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 17, 2020 13:25:30 GMT -8
FYI
People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus, China study finds Research in Wuhan and Shenzhen indicates patients with the blood group had higher rate of infection and tended to get more severe symptoms. Those with type O ‘had a significantly lower risk for the infectious disease’ compared to others
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 13:49:45 GMT -8
Latest totals:
US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179
US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163
US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164
EDIT: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161
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Post by picassoono on Mar 17, 2020 14:07:43 GMT -8
This is not the light at the end of the tunnel. A doctor just reported on CNN that people are coming into ERs fast and furious and in his hospital alone 6 doctors have the virus. It’s crucial that people stay home and social distance which is the key to stopping this virus. The doctor said he has seen full parking lots at shopping centres and that’s scary. The Chinese market at least for now has recovered and so will Apple and our markets but the Key is social distancing. Do you have a link? I couldn't find it on CNN.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 17, 2020 14:23:48 GMT -8
Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 EDIT:US cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 The death rate isn’t overly important compared to the overall effect on the economy imo. During the Great Recession and after 9/11, consumer spending slowed down but most businesses were prolly able to work their way thru it. Leisure and travel took a hit but this is potentially much worse depending on how soon we can get our economy ramped back. But first we have to get thru peak virus, get laid off people back to work, get people back out spending, etc. I have an acquaintance who owns 40 very successful restaurants here in East Tennessee and as of today he is very worried about being able to survive this. He’s past the point of trying to save employee jobs, he’s worrying about his own ability to get thru it for his family. Almost nobody coming in to eat and trying to promote take out services which he is not set up for. And, this guy has always been very hard working and super frugal in the way he lives compared to his income level. This is going on in all types of businesses all across the country. Nobody wants to contract this virus or pass it on to their loved ones. That’s what they worry about and nobody is exactly sure how it’s spread. To say it’s a low death rate and people shouldn’t be afraid does not begin to address the issue.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 15:45:17 GMT -8
To say it’s a low death rate and people shouldn’t be afraid does not begin to address the issue. I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154
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Post by BillH on Mar 17, 2020 15:58:18 GMT -8
Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 EDIT:US cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 I don't understand why anyone believes these stats to be relevant or particularly applicable for that matter. My Doc here in Key West finally received a few kits the other day and they ALL had an expiration date of 2017. (He also runs the hospital here) Same deal in Minnesota and I presume most everywhere else. There's so little actual testing going on around the country who knows how many REAL cases there may be.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 17, 2020 16:10:35 GMT -8
To say it’s a low death rate and people shouldn’t be afraid does not begin to address the issue. I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154 Yea, I know you think it’ll be a quick recovery, you said we would turn the corner on the economy and COronavirus this week. What I’m saying is the death rate is not a factor and I don’t see why you’re so obsessed with it and keep posting it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 17, 2020 16:10:37 GMT -8
The roller coaster continues, up and down. Seems like the trick is to not buy on an up day, and to spread out the purchases.
AAPL was up $10.something during the day, and is down $8.something in after-hours.
Volatile times.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 16:17:28 GMT -8
I don't understand why anyone believes these stats to be relevant or particularly applicable for that matter. I think the stats are relevant. Everyone said a week ago (including on this board) "OMG they haven't even started testing yet just wait for the numbers to pop when they do!" And now suddenly we're starting to get some real data points and you want to plug your ears and yell LALALALALALALA! Or you could just put me on mute if it really triggers you. Regardless of what is happening in individual states, presumably these data points are coming from areas that are using valid test kits. And you said in Minnesota they are only testing hospitalized patients, health care workers, and residents of long-term care facilities. Two of those three (hospitalized and elderly) are more at risk of death, so wouldn't that make the reported death rates skew *higher*?
I don't understand this impulse to not hear information. We've been talking about death rates for weeks. If you know of some bodies piling up somewhere where covid-19 is suspected but they haven't been tested, I'm all ears.
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Post by BillH on Mar 17, 2020 16:23:22 GMT -8
I don't understand why anyone believes these stats to be relevant or particularly applicable for that matter. I think the stats are relevant. Everyone said a week ago (including on this board) "OMG they haven't even started testing yet just wait for the numbers to pop when they do!" And now suddenly we're starting to get some real data points and you want to plug your ears and yell LALALALALALALA! Or you could just put me on mute if it really triggers you. Regardless of what is happening in individual states, presumably these data points are coming from areas that are using valid test kits. And you said in Minnesota they are only testing hospitalized patients, health care workers, and residents of long-term care facilities. Two of those three (hospitalized and elderly) are more at risk of death, so wouldn't that make the reported death rates skew *higher*?
I don't understand this impulse to not hear information. We've been talking about death rates for weeks. If you know of some bodies piling up somewhere where covid-19 is suspected but they haven't been tested, I'm all ears.
You keep throwing this crap into your posts. I don't care what "everybody says" nor do I plug my ears to information. What I am saying is that there are no reported cases of covid-19 in Monroe County. Then again, how could there be? They don't have any ability to test for it.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 16:26:22 GMT -8
What I’m saying is the death rate is not a factor and I don’t see why you’re so obsessed with it and keep posting it. I disagree. But if you don't like what I post here, there is the Sponge Block Member button available. It is interesting how the reliable lefties on this board don't seem to like me posting what I consider to be good news. I guess you prefer DUR HUR DOTARD IS TARDED AND WE'RE ALL DOOMED BECAUSE TARD, or "I know a guy" anecdotal reports to enlighten you.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 17, 2020 16:30:55 GMT -8
You keep throwing this crap into your posts. I don't care what "everybody says" nor do I plug my ears to information. What I am saying is that there are no reported cases of covid-19 in Monroe County. Then again, how could there be? They don't have any ability to test for it. If you don't like what a post you can block me and my posts will be hidden from your trigger-prone eyes. Hope you don't run out of Kleenex in this time of hoarding.
But there are probably no respondents in Monroe County in national 3000-person presidential polls. But statistics don't require you sample every single city or even county.
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