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Post by laf on Mar 17, 2020 16:34:09 GMT -8
JD....check out the death rate in Italy. I think the projected death rate when the virus overtakes the capacity of the health care system is the rate to fear. www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.htmlThey report 31,506 cases and 2503 deaths....I don't even think you have to do the math to see that the rate is much higher than we are seeing so far in the US. Also....the article states.... "Globally, the virus has infected 184,976 people and killed just over 7,500, according to the WHO. Almost 80,000 people have recovered from the infection, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University." Again, that death rate is much higher. Also, using these stats we would say the recovery rate is only 43%...this might cause many to be more fearful of contracting the virus.
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Post by playultimate on Mar 17, 2020 16:41:40 GMT -8
There's so little actual testing going on around the country who knows how many REAL cases there may be. This actually supports JDSoCal's contention about the disease. IMO the level of infection matters less than the death rate. People get the cold/flu all the time with little economic/political consequence. Due to the fear of a very high death rate, Covid-19 has led to massive personal and economic disruption. Since every death is being counted, more infectious non-deaths would only increase the denominator and lower the actual death rate.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 17, 2020 16:41:43 GMT -8
What I’m saying is the death rate is not a factor and I don’t see why you’re so obsessed with it and keep posting it. I disagree. But if you don't like what I post here, there is the Sponge Block Member button available. It is interesting how the reliable lefties on this board don't seem to like me posting what I consider to be good news. I guess you prefer DUR HUR DOTARD IS TARDED AND WE'RE ALL DOOMED BECAUSE TARD, or "I know a guy" anecdotal reports to enlighten you.
I wouldn’t block you JD even though you’re wrong about the death rate of this virus being pertinent to what we’re experiencing and it’s effect on economic recovery. You are right about many things but like many others in the country, you aren’t taking this seriously. BTW, I’ve voted for more republicans than Dems over the years and I know good leadership when I see it but I don’t need to call people names to make my points so that’s just a difference between you and me.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 309
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Post by crispin on Mar 17, 2020 17:00:19 GMT -8
Despite what the Faux news propagandists would have you believe, the fact is the incompetence and sheer hubris of the manchild in the WH wasted valuable time at the beginning of this crisis. We’re now far behind in testing, and as a result resorting to draconian social distancing measures that will wreck parts of the economy. Whereas if we’d had proactive and competent leadership from the get go, we should’ve been able to test and isolate to largely avoid this outcome. But as with everything to confront the pathetic fatburg, it’s always someone else’s fault...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 17, 2020 17:22:12 GMT -8
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Post by david on Mar 17, 2020 17:35:47 GMT -8
To say it’s a low death rate and people shouldn’t be afraid does not begin to address the issue. I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154 Not a mathematician, statistician or epidemiologist, are you, jd? Wait two weeks.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 17, 2020 17:53:08 GMT -8
This is not the light at the end of the tunnel. A doctor just reported on CNN that people are coming into ERs fast and furious and in his hospital alone 6 doctors have the virus. It’s crucial that people stay home and social distance which is the key to stopping this virus. The doctor said he has seen full parking lots at shopping centres and that’s scary. The Chinese market at least for now has recovered and so will Apple and our markets but the Key is social distancing. Do you have a link? I couldn't find it on CNN. There’s no link. Sanjay Gupta was on the phone all night with a colleague who he brought on the show and this doctor gave the news live on CNN.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 17, 2020 17:57:10 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Mar 17, 2020 18:08:55 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Mar 17, 2020 18:52:01 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Mar 17, 2020 19:21:34 GMT -8
I've been using a condensed version of that report for a few weeks now. Tip of the cap to Warren Zevon. He's the hairy-handed gent who ran amuck in Kent Lately he's been overheard in Mayfair You better stay away from him He'll rip your lungs out, Jim I'd like to meet his tailor www.youtube.com/watch?v=qae25976UgA
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,544
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Post by mark on Mar 17, 2020 21:19:22 GMT -8
I just added to my Jan '22 call spread position ... probably too early, but I'll add more later as warranted. Remember when I said I "forgot" to place my call spreads last year (and that it was too late due to the huge gains)? Well, this time I'm remembering to place them. If you are going to say this say what your spreads are. These are 200-250, a little under 100% potential gain at maximum value. The thing that is nice about spreads is that you can very widely choose your risk and maximum potential reward.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 17, 2020 23:25:10 GMT -8
To say it’s a low death rate and people shouldn’t be afraid does not begin to address the issue. I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154 According to my fuzzy brain at 3:30 a.m., this makes the death rate about 16 times greater than the flu 1.6% vs. 0.1%. That is truly significant for a disease that could affect tens of millions or more Americans and for which there is no herd immunity. Remember, the 0.0161 is NOT percent; the percentage is 1.61%. I think that your source is doing this intentionally in order to mislead poorly educated Americans. Could your source be Russian?
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 18, 2020 0:12:10 GMT -8
I was waiting for someone to post this site as a way to express their TDS. This site is not a news site, it is a Trump hating cesspool that has managed to stay alive only because Trump is the President. This was created in 1997 and if I remember correctly was a cheerleading front for Slick Willy at that time. All of the contributors are left-wing socialists (at least all of the ones I have read) and will report anything in anyway they can with no facts to back up their claims. They have quoted the NYT and WAPO with quotes I have not been able to find. There are people who claim their main backers are billionaires such as Soros but I am not going to spend the time to corroborate that because I have read enough of their articles to know exactly what they are and what their agenda is. By posting this you have gave credence to my claim that people such these don't care what the death rate of the virus is, as long as they think they can blame Trump for all of it and return the Socialists to power. Thank you for posting it. Feel free to read some the bio's of their founder and staff. www.commondreams.org/key-staff"Craig Brown and his late wife, Lina Newhouser, founded Common Dreams in 1997. Formerly a community organizer and political consultant, Brown has managed many progressive state referenda, local, Congressional and US Senate campaigns. Brown managed the campaigns of former US Rep. Tom Andrews (D-ME) and served as Chief of Staff to Congressman Andrews. In 1991, Brown and Andrews helped co-found the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Brown, a news junkie since childhood, provides the vision for Common Dreams and directs the editorial content and daily operations." "Julia Conley began her journalism career on PBS's weekly news analysis show Bill Moyers Journal, first as a production assistant and eventually producing interview segments for veteran journalist Bill Moyers. She also worked for over two years as a producer on Al Jazeera America's daily news broadcasts, and later on documentary films focusing on issues including the roots of the American opioid crisis and the history of white supremacy in the U.S. She has written for the quarterly women's magazine A Women's Thing, and joined the Common Dreams staff in 2017." "Eoin Higgins is senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams. Prior to joining the organization in 2019, his work appeared at publications like The Intercept, The Washington Post, Vice, and many others. When not in the office, you can find him exploring Maine with his family."
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 18, 2020 0:54:57 GMT -8
I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154 According to my fuzzy brain at 3:30 a.m., this makes the death rate about 16 times greater than the flu 1.6% vs. 0.1%. That is truly significant for a disease that could affect tens of millions or more Americans and for which there is no herd immunity. Remember, the 0.0161 is NOT percent; the percentage is 1.61%. I think that your source is doing this intentionally in order to mislead poorly educated Americans. Could your source be Russian? Actually these are mathematically correct numbers. They back up JD's contention that as the number of confirmed cases go up the mortality rate goes down. Even the experts are saying that the mortality rate that finally emerges will probably be somewhere from .4% (.004) to .6% (.006) (I think that may be high at least I hope so). So that will probably show that the China Virus is more contagious and deadlier (mainly because it targets the vulnerable and the weak) than the common flu. I personally believe that to be true but I also agree that the numbers will come down from where they are now. Do you disagree with that? I have seen no explanation of the China paradox that seems to indicate that life is returning to normal in China, but if that is the case should there not be a resurgence in the number of cases to some degree. Did China suddenly just become virus free? With the duration of the sickness I would not think it would be safe to resume normalcy this quick. Do you? The unknown is exactly that and nothing more.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 18, 2020 3:29:58 GMT -8
I was waiting for someone to post this site as a way to express their TDS. This site is not a news site, it is a Trump hating cesspool that has managed to stay alive only because Trump is the President. This was created in 1997 and if I remember correctly was a cheerleading front for Slick Willy at that time. All of the contributors are left-wing socialists (at least all of the ones I have read) and will report anything in anyway they can with no facts to back up their claims. They have quoted the NYT and WAPO with quotes I have not been able to find. There are people who claim their main backers are billionaires such as Soros but I am not going to spend the time to corroborate that because I have read enough of their articles to know exactly what they are and what their agenda is. By posting this you have gave credence to my claim that people such these don't care what the death rate of the virus is, as long as they think they can blame Trump for all of it and return the Socialists to power. Thank you for posting it. Feel free to read some the bio's of their founder and staff. www.commondreams.org/key-staff"Craig Brown and his late wife, Lina Newhouser, founded Common Dreams in 1997. Formerly a community organizer and political consultant, Brown has managed many progressive state referenda, local, Congressional and US Senate campaigns. Brown managed the campaigns of former US Rep. Tom Andrews (D-ME) and served as Chief of Staff to Congressman Andrews. In 1991, Brown and Andrews helped co-found the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Brown, a news junkie since childhood, provides the vision for Common Dreams and directs the editorial content and daily operations." "Julia Conley began her journalism career on PBS's weekly news analysis show Bill Moyers Journal, first as a production assistant and eventually producing interview segments for veteran journalist Bill Moyers. She also worked for over two years as a producer on Al Jazeera America's daily news broadcasts, and later on documentary films focusing on issues including the roots of the American opioid crisis and the history of white supremacy in the U.S. She has written for the quarterly women's magazine A Women's Thing, and joined the Common Dreams staff in 2017." "Eoin Higgins is senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams. Prior to joining the organization in 2019, his work appeared at publications like The Intercept, The Washington Post, Vice, and many others. When not in the office, you can find him exploring Maine with his family." Sorry I just picked the first site on Google that ran the story. I guess it doesn’t matter to you that the story is factual and has a link to the NY Times where the story originated.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 18, 2020 6:54:52 GMT -8
According to my fuzzy brain at 3:30 a.m., this makes the death rate about 16 times greater than the flu 1.6% vs. 0.1%. That is truly significant for a disease that could affect tens of millions or more Americans and for which there is no herd immunity. Remember, the 0.0161 is NOT percent; the percentage is 1.61%. I think that your source is doing this intentionally in order to mislead poorly educated Americans. Could your source be Russian? Actually these are mathematically correct numbers. They back up JD's contention that as the number of confirmed cases go up the mortality rate goes down. Even the experts are saying that the mortality rate that finally emerges will probably be somewhere from .4% (.004) to .6% (.006) (I think that may be high at least I hope so). So that will probably show that the China Virus is more contagious and deadlier (mainly because it targets the vulnerable and the weak) than the common flu. I personally believe that to be true but I also agree that the numbers will come down from where they are now. Do you disagree with that? I have seen no explanation of the China paradox that seems to indicate that life is returning to normal in China, but if that is the case should there not be a resurgence in the number of cases to some degree. Did China suddenly just become virus free? With the duration of the sickness I would not think it would be safe to resume normalcy this quick. Do you? The unknown is exactly that and nothing more. My former wife is in China visiting her father, who is in his 90's. She was supposed to come back last week and is stuck there until plane flights resume. She says people can now go to restaurants if they sit 3 feet apart, she can go out more freely, and the buses are starting to run more frequently. Easing up, slowly.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 18, 2020 7:33:20 GMT -8
I was waiting for someone to post this site as a way to express their TDS. This site is not a news site, it is a Trump hating cesspool that has managed to stay alive only because Trump is the President. This was created in 1997 and if I remember correctly was a cheerleading front for Slick Willy at that time. All of the contributors are left-wing socialists (at least all of the ones I have read) and will report anything in anyway they can with no facts to back up their claims. They have quoted the NYT and WAPO with quotes I have not been able to find. There are people who claim their main backers are billionaires such as Soros but I am not going to spend the time to corroborate that because I have read enough of their articles to know exactly what they are and what their agenda is. By posting this you have gave credence to my claim that people such these don't care what the death rate of the virus is, as long as they think they can blame Trump for all of it and return the Socialists to power. Thank you for posting it. Feel free to read some the bio's of their founder and staff. www.commondreams.org/key-staff"Craig Brown and his late wife, Lina Newhouser, founded Common Dreams in 1997. Formerly a community organizer and political consultant, Brown has managed many progressive state referenda, local, Congressional and US Senate campaigns. Brown managed the campaigns of former US Rep. Tom Andrews (D-ME) and served as Chief of Staff to Congressman Andrews. In 1991, Brown and Andrews helped co-found the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Brown, a news junkie since childhood, provides the vision for Common Dreams and directs the editorial content and daily operations." "Julia Conley began her journalism career on PBS's weekly news analysis show Bill Moyers Journal, first as a production assistant and eventually producing interview segments for veteran journalist Bill Moyers. She also worked for over two years as a producer on Al Jazeera America's daily news broadcasts, and later on documentary films focusing on issues including the roots of the American opioid crisis and the history of white supremacy in the U.S. She has written for the quarterly women's magazine A Women's Thing, and joined the Common Dreams staff in 2017." "Eoin Higgins is senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams. Prior to joining the organization in 2019, his work appeared at publications like The Intercept, The Washington Post, Vice, and many others. When not in the office, you can find him exploring Maine with his family." Sorry I just picked the first site on Google that ran the story. I guess it doesn’t matter to you that the story is factual and has a link to the NY Times where the story originated. My problem with the site is that they have never told the whole story on any article that they have published. It is a site that always exaggerates the agenda they are pushing, be it trashing Bush, slavering over Obama and now adding fuel to a fire that may turn into a tragedy. For instance in their present fear mongering they don't even discuss the fact that by causing a nation wide panic the government could have caused a serious problem to get much worse. Let's presume that if the President had ordered a complete shutdown, suddenly without warning, with no data, then this site would have been full of articles about how Trump caused a panic and made it worse. I have no doubt that these prognostications were out there but if a site is telling you how wrong the government was by using nothing more than hindsight it is not pushing fact, it is pushing an agenda. Both sides have these disinformation sites but the left has a big advantage because the MSM has become a tool for them, but Common Dreams takes it to the next level. Whatever level this crises goes to Trump is going to get the blame and it doesn't matter if it is resolved with results that are better than the doomsday purveyors are predicting. One fact that can't be denied is that if a Democrat were to have been in office and followed the exact path that Trump has, the MSM and many on this forum would have hailed him/her as a hero. Deciding what is true may be hard in these next moments. “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 18, 2020 7:49:05 GMT -8
I don't believe that I suggested the above conclusion. Nor am I in charge of "addressing the issue" of the coronavirus. Fortunately, our decisive and bold President is. But I do think they are interesting data points. And the less lethal this virus is, IMO, the quicker our society and economy return to normalcy. Latest totals: US cases Updated Mar 17 at 12:46 PM ET Confirmed: 4,740 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0179 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 1:21 PM ET Confirmed: 5,213 Fatal: 85 Death Rate: 0.0163 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 3:56 PM ET Confirmed: 5,711 Fatal: 94 Death Rate: 0.0164 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,061 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0161 US Cases Updated Mar 17 at 5:41 PM ET Confirmed: 6,349 Fatal: 98 Death Rate: 0.0154 According to my fuzzy brain at 3:30 a.m., this makes the death rate about 16 times greater than the flu 1.6% vs. 0.1%. That is truly significant for a disease that could affect tens of millions or more Americans and for which there is no herd immunity. Remember, the 0.0161 is NOT percent; the percentage is 1.61%. I think that your source is doing this intentionally in order to mislead poorly educated Americans. Could your source be Russian? I realize math is hard for "Bloomberg can give every American a million dollars and still be rich" liberals, but my numbers are correct. I didn't put a % sign next to my numbers and assumed everyone here could understand that one percent is .01, or they have no business managing their own money.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 18, 2020 7:51:56 GMT -8
Actually these are mathematically correct numbers. They back up JD's contention that as the number of confirmed cases go up the mortality rate goes down. Even the experts are saying that the mortality rate that finally emerges will probably be somewhere from .4% (.004) to .6% (.006) (I think that may be high at least I hope so). So that will probably show that the China Virus is more contagious and deadlier (mainly because it targets the vulnerable and the weak) than the common flu. I personally believe that to be true but I also agree that the numbers will come down from where they are now. Do you disagree with that? I have seen no explanation of the China paradox that seems to indicate that life is returning to normal in China, but if that is the case should there not be a resurgence in the number of cases to some degree. Did China suddenly just become virus free? With the duration of the sickness I would not think it would be safe to resume normalcy this quick. Do you? The unknown is exactly that and nothing more. My former wife is in China visiting her father, who is in his 90's. She was supposed to come back last week and is stuck there until plane flights resume. She says people can now go to restaurants if they sit 3 feet apart, she can go out more freely, and the buses are starting to run more frequently. Easing up, slowly. I hope she and her Family are safe and that this is the path that we follow here. I am still at a loss as to why China could stop this spread so suddenly. Is it because they have a totalitarian government that can shut down the Country so much easier than a Democracy or a Constitutional Republic can? If so then perhaps we will be forced to make the decisions that our Founders faced. "Give me liberty or give me death" sounds pretty good until the noose is on your neck I guess. I am not sure the Country as a whole will show the resolve of the Patriots. China, I hope, is giving us their methods if there is something more than just social distancing.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 18, 2020 11:47:02 GMT -8
According to my fuzzy brain at 3:30 a.m., this makes the death rate about 16 times greater than the flu 1.6% vs. 0.1%. That is truly significant for a disease that could affect tens of millions or more Americans and for which there is no herd immunity. Remember, the 0.0161 is NOT percent; the percentage is 1.61%. I think that your source is doing this intentionally in order to mislead poorly educated Americans. Could your source be Russian? I realize math is hard for "Bloomberg can give every American a million dollars and still be rich" liberals, but my numbers are correct. I didn't put a % sign next to my numbers and assumed everyone here could understand that one percent is .01, or they have no business managing their own money. I know you didn't, but the figures manipulate simple conservative minds, and you know it, funny boy. But aside from your mathematical sleight of hand, shouldn't you be telling your cult leader by email and other means that he is suddenly overreacting to what is just a new common cold?
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