Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 12:32:56 GMT -8
Context re: AT&T - must account for sales from calendar Q3.
Honestly I don't see much anything in that "data point" from AT&T. We'll see how Vz affects AAPL, since there was BIG sell-in to that carrier in calendar Q3 as well.
Perception over actually instructive numbers at this point. The YOY carrier compare is a little skewed domestically, share is more important.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 8, 2013 12:45:17 GMT -8
I love the SEC, even though I hail from ACC country. Watching that conference play football is better than anything else in college or professional sports. Of course you do if you are a football fan, since the ACC plays HS football. If you want basketball, you watch ACC. If you want both, you watch the Pac-12. WRT RGIII, sad, long rehab, but totally repairable. One has to wonder WTH he was doing out there. It's one thing when a retiring player like Ray Lewis plays hurt. But this guy is a rook, future of the franchise. Playing on an ACL tear is a great way to get a total knee blowout. Of course, they didn't know it was an ACL at the time, but he was obviously limping and immobile.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 8, 2013 12:48:28 GMT -8
Ha, funny how the EMA 200 heads right to the top call, 525...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 13:06:15 GMT -8
Not terrible. Just very rangebound.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 8, 2013 13:08:50 GMT -8
Ha, funny how the EMA 200 heads right to the top call, 525... What timeframe?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 8, 2013 13:14:39 GMT -8
I love the SEC, even though I hail from ACC country. Watching that conference play football is better than anything else in college or professional sports. Of course you do if you are a football fan, since the ACC plays HS football. If you want basketball, you watch ACC. If you want both, you watch the Pac-12. WRT RGIII, sad, long rehab, but totally repairable. One has to wonder WTH he was doing out there. It's one thing when a retiring player like Ray Lewis plays hurt. But this guy is a rook, future of the franchise. Playing on an ACL tear is a great way to get a total knee blowout. Of course, they didn't know it was an ACL at the time, but he was obviously limping and immobile. Of course, no one knew it was an ACL tear at the time, just a lot of pain. Some players have been known to finish a game with a broken foot or hand. It's what football players do, play hurt. When the adrenalin is pumping, and all the work you and your teammates have done for the last 6 months is at risk of being for naught, then it's actually a pretty easy decision for a young player (especially if he has a long term lucrative contract). For marginal players, or those older and needing to take care of a family, it becomes a "business decision", as Deion Sanders would say.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 13:16:10 GMT -8
I would think AT&T would come in at a higher percentage, as people upgraded to the iPhone 5, so somewhere between 14.22% and 17.47% of overall iPhone sales....if you take the middle that's around 50 million phones I guess. I think the stock will be punished if it's less than 50 million, unfortunately.... Yes but, those quarters with higher percentages were launch quarters where the iPhone was not fully available internationally. This launch however we rolled to the rest of the world quite quickly, so I would argue that ATT would represent less... or whishfull thinking ;D True, but in the low % quarters, it was the full out launch in China for the iPhone 4S and other countries while the iPhone 5 was pretty much launched in every country this last quarter, the last week or two of September not included. So I believe the ATT Numbers will not be at the extreme low end, but more around 15 - 16%.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 8, 2013 13:17:00 GMT -8
Yes but, those quarters with higher percentages were launch quarters where the iPhone was not fully available internationally. This launch however we rolled to the rest of the world quite quickly, so I would argue that ATT would represent less... or whishfull thinking ;D True, but in the low % quarters, it was the full out launch in China for the iPhone 4S and other countries while the iPhone 5 was pretty much launched in every country this last quarter, the last week or two of September not included. So I believe the ATT Numbers will not be at the extreme low end, but more around 15 - 16%. agreed.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 8, 2013 13:26:54 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 13:41:28 GMT -8
Just thinking about the AT&T numbers vs a year ago - wouldn't the year ago % of overall iPhone sales be a little inaccurate considering apples overall sales were for 14 weeks, while AT&Ts sales were for 13 weeks?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 13:52:17 GMT -8
True, but in the low % quarters, it was the full out launch in China for the iPhone 4S and other countries while the iPhone 5 was pretty much launched in every country this last quarter, the last week or two of September not included. So I believe the ATT Numbers will not be at the extreme low end, but more around 15 - 16%. agreed. Well if they sell 8 Million and it's 15% of the worldwide market, that would bring us to 53M...something that I would be more than happy with. Of course that's a lot of conclusions and guesses I'm jumping to Is it Jan 23rd yet?
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Post by rob_london on Jan 8, 2013 13:55:26 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 8, 2013 14:08:01 GMT -8
The Loop just referred to this as "Qualcomm's Nightmare Keynote" and then Jim went on to say, "I've never seen anything like this before. Never."
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 8, 2013 14:16:44 GMT -8
Ha, funny how the EMA 200 heads right to the top call, 525... What timeframe?
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Post by rob_london on Jan 8, 2013 14:16:58 GMT -8
Interesting that the WSJ are now reporting that Apple are working on a lower priced iPhone. They generally have reliable sources.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 14:18:01 GMT -8
It would appear that Alcoa's earnings didn't suck. Nice! Apple's been looking into prepaid for a while now. This isn't a surprise to many here, but if it leads to upside, I'm all for it!
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Post by terps530 on Jan 8, 2013 14:31:06 GMT -8
Whoa a twitter app will be out soon! Breakthrough. Steve Ballmer reminds me of Tony Little.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 8, 2013 14:43:37 GMT -8
Whoa a twitter app will be out soon! Breakthrough. Steve Ballmer reminds me of Tony Little. This is the Steve Balmer I came to know and love ;D www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc
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Post by appledoc on Jan 8, 2013 14:45:05 GMT -8
Just thinking about the AT&T numbers vs a year ago - wouldn't the year ago % of overall iPhone sales be a little inaccurate considering apples overall sales were for 14 weeks, while AT&Ts sales were for 13 weeks? I assumed all companies had a 14 week 1Q last year. Is that incorrect?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 8, 2013 14:48:47 GMT -8
Whoa a twitter app will be out soon! Breakthrough. Steve Ballmer reminds me of Tony Little. Try decaf, Tony. He still has the 80's hair look. (Obviously, that was a dated clip).
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 8, 2013 15:00:11 GMT -8
I swear Ballmer sounds a little panicky!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 8, 2013 15:05:24 GMT -8
Thank you!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 15:29:11 GMT -8
Whatcha think iPad?
I say building a base.
Not trading right now, but constructive!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 8, 2013 15:44:54 GMT -8
The Loop just referred to this as "Qualcomm's Nightmare Keynote" and then Jim went on to say, "I've never seen anything like this before. Never." It was like watching the Home Shopping Network at 2 A.M. while being a little high..... Except the Home Shopping Network has way more class..... For a real laugh, follow the comments thread here.... www.theverge.com/2013/1/8/3850056/qualcomms-insane-ces-2013-keynote-pictures-tweets
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 8, 2013 15:50:27 GMT -8
Just thinking about the AT&T numbers vs a year ago - wouldn't the year ago % of overall iPhone sales be a little inaccurate considering apples overall sales were for 14 weeks, while AT&Ts sales were for 13 weeks? I assumed all companies had a 14 week 1Q last year. Is that incorrect? Doc, companies do an adjustment, it is by company, year means nothing.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 8, 2013 16:16:31 GMT -8
I assumed all companies had a 14 week 1Q last year. Is that incorrect? Doc, companies do an adjustment, it is by company, year means nothing. Thanks. I'm trying to figuring out how much this matters. I don't have easy access to earnings reports since I'm on my phone at the airport. But wouldn't all the quarterly splits have been screwed up by our 14 week Q1? Phones that Apple counted in Q1 would have been counted by AT&T, Verizon and Sprint in their Q2. Meaning Q1 US sales would have had an even higher share, while international sales would have had an even higher Q2 share.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 16:18:20 GMT -8
OMG! If you get a kick out of truly awful keynotes, the Qualcomm CES keynote fits the damn bill! One YouTube link I found: www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcRLbcbW5rkVerge meta-review of Qualcomm CES is a hoot. And people wonder why Apple seeks as much vertical integration as it can get. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 16:24:22 GMT -8
wouldn't all the quarterly splits have been screwed up by our 14 week Q1? Phones that Apple counted in Q1 would have been counted by AT&T, Verizon and Sprint in their Q2. Meaning Q1 US sales would have had an even higher share, while international sales would have had an even higher Q2 share. Wait up, appledoc. Yes, 14-week vs. 13-week may affect extrapolation (which I really, really don't recommend), but share is the bigger deal in terms of trending, since the US smartphone market is getting saturated. First full quarter of availability = a fundamentally fair compare against the Android army... ...even though Samsung might say that they're the only real Android power player in town, and with a Galaxy S III launch date over three months prior to the iPhone 5, so the compare isn't quite comparable. (Whatever, Apple can say the exact same thing in a quarter or so when the neverending leapfrog contest continues, and the forget-tablets-I-want-convergence Galaxy Note II launched around the same time as iPhone 5 anyway.)
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 8, 2013 16:40:57 GMT -8
In the next week or so would be a perfect time for the China Mobile announcement, sparking a nice pre-earnings run up, continuing to rise after a stellar earnings report.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2013 16:45:30 GMT -8
That's only if iPhone 5 is or can be easily made compatible with China Mobile's network. Also depends on if the TD-LTE network is really ready for prime time in at least some major markets.
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