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Post by pauls on Mar 20, 2020 20:07:56 GMT -8
Remarkable to me how many folks are posting such dooms-day type comments. On Seeking Alpha, an article titled, "Apple target, iPhone estimates trimmed on virus impact", had comments like the ones enclosed below. The one person, D_Tree, always posts negative comments regarding AAPL, but I can only assume the others are trying to push AAPL down even further that it already is. Are you kidding me? All I ever see on AFB lately is FUD and doom and gloom and outright hostility to anything positive. The death rate continues to drop BTW. Current US numbers: 225 deaths of 16621 cases = 1.35% (for those who cannot understand decimal points). If AFB is the shining beacon of positivity for AAPL and the markets, sell! We all know the current death rate here in the US, although we don't know how many cases. The death rate should go down, providing we have adequate care facilities and supplies. This is far from certain, though. At the end of the day, you probably win the death rate argument you are having with yourself. It remains to be seen if .0135 death rate is the story people will focus on. Death rate in Italy is almost unbelievable. Some parts of the US may well have similar trajectories, at least with infection rates. I think market sentiment is likely to be concerned about the infected rate (which is about to climb dramatically with testing) and of course the general disruption to the economy and society at large. I think we are looking at massive unemployment numbers week over week over week. No one was talking about recession 10 days ago. The military is being mobilized here and there, Trump has called for a national emergency in NY, huge buildings are being commandeered for the care of the 20% who experts say will need medical care to be made well. The death rate is small, the disruption huge. You know this, I know. It is not FUD. Our convention center here is being repurposed to somehow help handle the homeless situation (Portland). Most of the people I know are very suddenly not working, or shuttering their businesses. Some of it will come back, but a lot of that business and tax revenue and consumer spending power will be slow to return, imo. I'm not selling shares (although I did let go of some (10% of all AAPL shares) in IRA on the spike on monday). Last, I don't see the outright hostility you mention.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 20, 2020 23:43:09 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Mar 21, 2020 7:04:08 GMT -8
FWIW: I still believe April 1st will be the LAST day of shutdowns. April Fools!
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Post by longsince98 on Mar 21, 2020 9:37:59 GMT -8
did you buy today? if you're as cocky as you've been that the whole thing is blow out of proportion, why not sell your current SPY / AAPL and load up on UPRO / AAPL $300 calls? serious question, not trolling (in fact, i bought at close) Said it before but I'll try once again. JdsSoCal thinks this is all about body counts. While that's entirely true the idea is to minimize them less you turn into Italy. We talk about stock prices here and that's a different issue. Do I know where the bottom is? Haven't a clue. Here's a bit of history that may or may not apply to what is happening today. Thanks for this Bill, do you know what’s the % gain on the 2020 bull market end? (wasn’t in the list)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 21, 2020 9:51:25 GMT -8
Said it before but I'll try once again. JdsSoCal thinks this is all about body counts. While that's entirely true the idea is to minimize them less you turn into Italy. We talk about stock prices here and that's a different issue. Do I know where the bottom is? Haven't a clue. Here's a bit of history that may or may not apply to what is happening today. Thanks for this Bill, do you know what’s the % gain on the 2020 bull market end? (wasn’t in the list) It's the last entry on the list....400.5%!!! It would be easier to compare the various ups and downs if they were annualized. I didn't have the nearly 90% loss figure in my head for 1929, but there it was the combo with the loss and the length of the down cycle. OTOH, this time while highs were getting peaky, it wasn't the crazy frothy top, of 1929, 2000, or 2008. That lopped at least 10% off, and it was those signs I was watching for.
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Post by longsince98 on Mar 21, 2020 13:35:27 GMT -8
Thanks for this Bill, do you know what’s the % gain on the 2020 bull market end? (wasn’t in the list) It's the last entry on the list....400.5%!!! It would be easier to compare the various ups and downs if they were annualized. I didn't have the nearly 90% loss figure in my head for 1929, but there it was the combo with the loss and the length of the down cycle. OTOH, this time while highs were getting peaky, it wasn't the crazy frothy top, of 1929, 2000, or 2008. That lopped at least 10% off, and it was those signs I was watching for. oh derp. apologies & thanks
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