chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Mar 21, 2020 8:34:51 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 21, 2020 10:19:58 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 21, 2020 12:38:46 GMT -8
Latest mortality rate: 1.17% 291/24,738 Another interesting stat:
Making Public Health Great Again.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 21, 2020 12:49:14 GMT -8
Remarkable to me how many folks are posting such dooms-day type comments. On Seeking Alpha, an article titled, "Apple target, iPhone estimates trimmed on virus impact", had comments like the ones enclosed below. The one person, D_Tree, always posts negative comments regarding AAPL, but I can only assume the others are trying to push AAPL down even further that it already is. Are you kidding me? No. All I ever see on AFB lately is FUD and doom and gloom and outright hostility to anything positive. I would agree that fear, uncertainty and doubt are all present in this attempt to stem the world-wide crisis caused by the coronavirus. However, those three emotions, in most cases, are well warranted. I can certainly understand why some people may also experience a feeling of doom and gloom in this situation which is why it's important to have top medical professionals providing correct information. And, IMO, the only "outright hostility to anything positive" on AFB is instead a reluctance to agree that everything is rosy and the concern is not legitimate. So, in this case, I believe the FUD is not surprising and, with few exceptions, is not a disinformation strategy, as given in the definition below, but instead legitimate reactions to the coronavirus crisis. FUD Definition from Wikipedia= a disinformation strategy used in sales, marketing, public relations, politics, cults, and propaganda. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear. 1. fear=an unpleasant emotion caused by the belief that someone or something is dangerous, likely to cause pain, or a threat. 2. uncertainty=the state of being uncertain. 3. doubt=a lack of confidence, an inclination not to believe or accept, uncertainty of belief or opinion that often interferes with decision-makingThe death rate continues to drop BTW. Current US numbers: 225 deaths of 16621 cases = 1.35% (for those who cannot understand decimal points). If AFB is the shining beacon of positivity for AAPL and the markets, sell! From Worldometer-Coronavirus, the current U.S. numbers: 288 deaths of 24,142 cases = 1.135% New deaths=+32 Current Spain numbers: 1,378 deaths of 25,374 cases = 5.43% New deaths=+285 Current Italy numbers: 4,825 deaths of 53,578 cases = 9.00% New deaths=+793 So today, 03/21/20, the current U.S. coronavirus deaths % has dropped, somewhat, compared to yesterday. That's good. Meanwhile, Spain, with about the same number of cases as the U.S., has a death percentage of 5.43%. Italy, with about double the number of cases of Spain and the U.S. has almost double the death rate of Spain. The bottom line is, nobody, including you, knows how this will play out in the U.S. and we should take whatever precautions necessary to minimize our citizens exposure to coronavirus. The present shelter-in-place requirements, mandated in some states, help fulfill this goal, IMO. On the other extreme, *some* of the youth of this county, hopefully not our future leaders, are treating this crisis as overblown and much-ado-about-nothing. Spring-breakers express frustration over coronavirus precautions in Miami
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Post by firestorm on Mar 21, 2020 13:42:15 GMT -8
Latest world stats for coronavirus: 12,987 dead of 304,997 cases, for a JD total death rate of 0.04258. Another 5% of the 200,000 active cases are in serious or critical condition.
I am hoping to buy early on the upswing, having gotten out of the market entirely near the peak. I have no idea when that might be, but it isn't yet.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,054
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Post by Dave on Mar 21, 2020 15:07:14 GMT -8
I want to file a protest. I find it unfair and quite biased that Lunckychoices doesn’t quote any of my posts, while he gladly dissects the posts of others with many bold highlights and quotes from Wikipedia or some far left leaning websites implying that I am wrong or misguided. I find this to be unfair and expect from this point forward, equal treatment. It’s snot-fair!
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 21, 2020 18:05:03 GMT -8
I want to file a protest. I find it unfair and quite biased that Lunckychoices doesn’t quote any of my posts, while he gladly dissects the posts of others with many bold highlights and quotes from Wikipedia or some far left leaning websites implying that I am wrong or misguided. I find this to be unfair and expect from this point forward, equal treatment. It’s snot-fair! Yeah, that Lunckychoices guy is so unfair. Plus, rumor is that he's hired ghostwriters. 😂
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Mar 22, 2020 9:37:09 GMT -8
Horace Dediu has a very interesting piece at his Asymco site. The basic insight is that part of the move to increased reliance on services is the importance of maintaining the ability for older phones to take advantage of new services. In some ways this is counter-intuitive; many folks might believe that the right strategy to counter slowing new phone sales is to force upgrades by requiring new phones for new services. Sometimes that is unavoidable, but as always Horace has an insightful view. Highly recommended.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 22, 2020 13:02:35 GMT -8
Latest world stats for coronavirus: 12,987 dead of 304,997 cases, for a JD total death rate of 0.04258. Another 5% of the 200,000 active cases are in serious or critical condition. I am hoping to buy early on the upswing, having gotten out of the market entirely near the peak. I have no idea when that might be, but it isn't yet. I'm not so interested in how the governments of third world bat-eating savages are covering-up mishandling the crisis. I'm more concerned about how good 'ol (Make) USA (Great Again) is handling it. And we are probably 24 hours from going under 1% (currently 1.030% 400/38,813). Source. As for the markets, hopefully when the administration and the government people working on this see the numbers aren't apparently as bad as some claimed, we can stop this self-immolation and open up businesses again before we enter a depression.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 22, 2020 13:25:02 GMT -8
Latest world stats for coronavirus: 12,987 dead of 304,997 cases, for a JD total death rate of 0.04258. Another 5% of the 200,000 active cases are in serious or critical condition. I am hoping to buy early on the upswing, having gotten out of the market entirely near the peak. I have no idea when that might be, but it isn't yet. I'm not so interested in how the governments of third world bat-eating savages are covering-up mishandling the crisis. I'm more concerned about how good 'ol (Make) USA (Great Again) is handling it. And we are probably 24 hours from going under 1% (currently 1.030% 400/38,813). Source. As for the markets, hopefully when the administration and the government people working on this see the numbers aren't apparently as bad as some claimed, we can stop this self-immolation and open up businesses again before we enter a depression. Now that the U.S. is finally starting to increase testing, I'm wondering what an updated chart from statistia would look like. I was unable to quickly locate the site. The chart you posted is dated March 19th and shows 9,415 cases in the U.S., whereas the latest chart from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, dated March 22nd, shows 32,356 total cases in the U.S. or almost 3.5 times the number of cases shown on your chart.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 22, 2020 13:36:09 GMT -8
I made the mistake of viewing the site without logging in and was accidentally exposed to J.D.'s last post. As for the markets, hopefully when the administration and the government people working on this see the numbers aren't apparently as bad as some claimed, we can stop this self-immolation and open up businesses again before we enter a depression.
I think J.D. is a pretty smart guy, and it amazes me how he choses to focus on single data points to discuss a dynamic process. If the current numbers reflected the future, sure, there would be no need to panic, but surely J.D. you do not mean to assert that the situation will remain as it is. Let me spell it out without the use of percentages or decimals. People are not concerned about the present, we are concerned about the exponential growth of the epidemic, a concern you consistently ignore. The best work that had been done on this that I know of is the modeling done by the Imperial College in Great Britain, which you dismissed with the weakest of ad Personam arguments. Here is a link to the report: www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdfDownload it and read it, then feel free to challenge the assumptions if you wish, or to propose an alternative technology to estimate the future impact. I develop simulation models for a living and I find their work credible. I welcome any insights you can bring to the table. But please spare me your hysterical defense of dear leader and his incompetent response by your citing of irrelevant and out of context numbers.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 22, 2020 13:44:34 GMT -8
Latest world stats for coronavirus: 12,987 dead of 304,997 cases, for a JD total death rate of 0.04258. Another 5% of the 200,000 active cases are in serious or critical condition. I am hoping to buy early on the upswing, having gotten out of the market entirely near the peak. I have no idea when that might be, but it isn't yet. I'm not so interested in how the governments of third world bat-eating savages are covering-up mishandling the crisis. I'm more concerned about how good 'ol (Make) USA (Great Again) is handling it. And we are probably 24 hours from going under 1% (currently 1.030% 400/38,813). Source. As for the markets, hopefully when the administration and the government people working on this see the numbers aren't apparently as bad as some claimed, we can stop this self-immolation and open up businesses again before we enter a depression. Only thing going under 1% is gdp and it will be way way under until we get a vaccine for this virus. But Apple is doing relatively well, not sure how long that will last. If a U.S. senator didn’t do any stock sales right up until the day after they receive a classified briefing on a killer virus, they need to be booted. Oh gosh, potus is getting ready to have another cv briefing, let’s see how bad he effs it up this time even with several “practice sessions” under his belt.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 22, 2020 14:13:00 GMT -8
futures -5% and immediately hit limit down
i'm revising my thinking on this... when jd says "it's a problem" then stocks finally reverse... right now a ton of jd's across the country shrugging things off, saying no big deal
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Post by pauls on Mar 22, 2020 14:32:49 GMT -8
futures -5% and immediately hit limit down
i'm revising my thinking on this... when jd says "it's a problem" then stocks finally reverse... right now a ton of jd's across the country shrugging things off, saying no big deal
Among my friends and family, everyone seems perpetually 2 days behind in terms of accepting the ongoing changes— their job, their business, their lay-off schedule, their lease, provisioning, setting kid boundaries, etc. Even people in Bay Area that work at big tech (fruit co), as far as they know, are going back to the office April 7th. Two days from now they will see that pushed way out, imo. On the other hand,they are busy working from home and that’s good. It’s a big deal. Hopefully short as possible. When Mnuchin says 10-12 weeks, I’m figuring that is a low end prediction. And then what? Still very constrained society and economy for several months. At least that’s what I’m prepping for, and I assume the traffic at my local gun store (incredible) is prepping for at least that.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 22, 2020 15:32:53 GMT -8
Yep, he’s doing better today and that’s a good thing. I don’t think the market’s are gonna be happy until we have a vaccine for cv, anything less is not going to restore confidence. There are too many variables and too many unknowns. Hope I’m wrong because it could take quite a while for a vaccine. Potus predicting a v shaped recovery is wishful thinking imo.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 22, 2020 16:05:00 GMT -8
I made the mistake of viewing the site without logging in and was accidentally exposed to J.D.'s last post. I'm looking at other data points. I even embedded one in my last post (cases per capita). But your blocky/passive aggression suggests that you want me to post less on this topic, not more.
I've been hearing about exponential growth for weeks. So where is it? And how would we even know without knowing the rate of increase in distribution of test kits (is the virus growing vs. is it just the testing that is increasing?)? My take remains the same: Is this virus really an existential threat worth cratering our economy to 1930's levels; and would that even really help in the long run (I'd argue it could cost more lives if millions are made jobless and homeless)? Japan hasn't done that and they have like the oldest demo ever and their numbers are relatively good: It really is astonishing typical that the side of the aisle that claims to be tolerant and open-minded just wants dogma they agree with.
I follow people on Twitter on both extremes of this discussion. But I fall on the side of you don't destroy the entire economy and civil liberties in a republic without at least having a very strong debate and hearing all sides. But all I'm reading here is panic without any limiting principles. Is there any death rate or case growth rate where you'd say, "well, maybe this is an overreaction"?
BTW Firestorm, if SPCE drops into single digits tomorrow, I'm backing up the truck.
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Post by pauls on Mar 22, 2020 16:39:41 GMT -8
"I follow people on Twitter on both extremes of this discussion. But I fall on the side of you don't destroy the entire economy and civil liberties in a republic without at least having a very strong debate and hearing all sides."
me too! Especially here! The economy is in for a battering, no matter what we think about a very strong debate that should have happened.
The horse is out of the barn. Exponential growth happens when you do nothing. US is still in 'hopeful' mode that social distancing will work. Might not, what is going down in NYC is something else. Steep damn curve, and they aren't testing widely. FL and Louisiana are on deck. CA seems to be handling a bad situation as well as they can, looking at current numbers.
If it comes down to the numbers dead, you have a great point, and no, the economy shouldn't tank over that. Yet shut down we are, with Mnuchin saying 10-12 weeks. I think that is wildly optimistic.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 22, 2020 17:39:09 GMT -8
I am with JD all the way.
The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ?
For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads?
There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 22, 2020 17:40:11 GMT -8
I made the mistake of viewing the site without logging in and was accidentally exposed to J.D.'s last post. I'm looking at other data points. I even embedded one in my last post (cases per capita). But your blocky/passive aggression suggests that you want me to post less on this topic, not more.
I've been hearing about exponential growth for weeks. So where is it? And how would we even know without knowing the rate of increase in distribution of test kits (is the virus growing vs. is it just the testing that is increasing?)? My take remains the same: Is this virus really an existential threat worth cratering our economy to 1930's levels; and would that even really help in the long run (I'd argue it could cost more lives if millions are made jobless and homeless)? Japan hasn't done that and they have like the oldest demo ever and their numbers are relatively good: It really is astonishing typical that the side of the aisle that claims to be tolerant and open-minded just wants dogma they agree with.
I follow people on Twitter on both extremes of this discussion. But I fall on the side of you don't destroy the entire economy and civil liberties in a republic without at least having a very strong debate and hearing all sides. But all I'm reading here is panic without any limiting principles. Is there any death rate or case growth rate where you'd say, "well, maybe this is an overreaction"?
BTW Firestorm, if SPCE drops into single digits tomorrow, I'm backing up the truck.
You go right ahead, and back up the truck with your parents' funds as well. I think it's too early. By the way, on your silly cartoon, I would point to the brain, because it astounds me how constantly dogmatic a person can be despite evidence to the contrary. Why don't you get a job working with Stephen Miller in the White House. I'll bet you guys would really hit it off!
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Post by pauls on Mar 22, 2020 17:50:10 GMT -8
I am with JD all the way. The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ? For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads? There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths. Deaths will be huge if hospitals overrun.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 22, 2020 17:53:13 GMT -8
I am with JD all the way. The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ? For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads? There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths. One of my criticisms of republicans I've known (and I've had to be around them my whole life!) is that they prioritize money and property (which they largely define as "freedom") over people. The old and accurate joke was that republicans liked the idea of the neutron bomb so much because it would kill people, but preserve property for potential republican enrichment. So of course republicans think that trump's current response is overblown, because it prioritizes lives over the economy. Yes, the economy will be difficult for people, but the experts (other than JD, of course, who is the leading expert) still say that without coordinated action, America could lose hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps up to two million in the full-blown pandemic. Italy is a warning of what could happen. It will be challenging to watch what happens as the virus spreads: I have two extended family members near me who have lung problems, one with lung cancer and the other a toddler who has suffered lung problems since he was one year old. The chances of both in this pandemic are grim. Perhaps, then, it is just my selfishness that prioritizes their lives over stockholders' fortunes. Tough shit.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 22, 2020 17:53:57 GMT -8
accidental double post
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Post by hledgard on Mar 22, 2020 18:05:20 GMT -8
I disagree with your characterization of me. My biggest personal and political issue is helping people who work hard every day, doing things like cleaning floors, stocking shelves, waiting on tables, and working as cooks. We depend on them for our everyday lives. They deserve so much more pay, respect, and support ! See hbr.org/cover-story/2017/11/the-case-for-good-jobs
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Post by firestorm on Mar 22, 2020 18:13:05 GMT -8
I disagree with your characterization of me. My biggest personal and political issue is helping people who work hard every day, doing things like cleaning floors, stocking shelves, waiting on tables, and working as cooks. We depend on them for our everyday lives. They deserve so much more pay, respect, and support ! See hbr.org/cover-story/2017/11/the-case-for-good-jobs Every republican I know opposes minimum wage increases and mandatory sick leave availability for employees and Obamacare protections and collective bargaining by unions to better the lives of the working class. Perhaps you are different; if so, I applaud you.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 22, 2020 18:20:24 GMT -8
I am with JD all the way. The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. This is a link to Dr. Fauci's leadership position and credentials => Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesPlease post a link to yours so I can decide to whom I should listen. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out.For what ? Earlier restrictions would have saved many lives. Elizabeth Fusco, subject of the article link below, lost her mother and three siblings. Are you personally being hurt by the restrictions more than that? Do you know of *anyone* in the country that's being hurt by the restrictions more than that? Me, neither. Two more members of tragic New Jersey family infected with coronavirusAt least two more members of the tragic New Jersey family ravaged by coronavirus have tested positive for the disease that’s already killed four of their kin and sickened eight others.
Elizabeth Fusco, the youngest of 11 children in a large, close-knit family, lost her mother and three siblings over the next few days, has herself tested positive.
Even worse, her daughter, who has a preexisting health condition, has tested positive, too.For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads? There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths.Don't be so impatient. As near as I can tell, as of 03/22/20, the total number of people tested so far in the U.S. is CDC labs (N=4,607) and U.S. public health laboratories (N=67,263) for a total of about 71,870. This in a nation of over 330 million. I hope we can look back at your post 30 days from now and congratulate you and JD for being correct.
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Post by tricouleur on Mar 22, 2020 18:25:00 GMT -8
JD, seriously what don’t you get about the danger of a disease that ties up hospital ICU beds to the point that people will have to be sent away? Just take a look at capacity in any of the metropolitan centers and you come to the realization that they are almost at 100% capacity meaning that when the big tidal wave of patients that require intubation and ventilators come, the hospitals will be completely unable to deal with it.
Morbidity is not the only variable to consider. Even if considering that CDC and every other health organization around the world has it wrong and you have it right.
Sadly whatever I write will have no effect on you and I consider it a waste of time. But I can hope.
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Post by pauls on Mar 22, 2020 18:31:21 GMT -8
You guys are saying they shouldn't shut down the economy when it's already shut, and while congress is debating and nearing signing of a fast-tracked 2T to deploy asap, and while Trump is sending national guard to NY. It's already done, the only question is, for how long. Do you somehow see a scenario where we go back to business in weeks, rather than months?
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Post by pauls on Mar 22, 2020 18:37:45 GMT -8
edit
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Post by longsince98 on Mar 22, 2020 18:54:01 GMT -8
I say this as an extreme “left” leaning person, who despises trump and most of what he stands for:
it’s disappointing to see such personal attacks on JD for beliefs he has, which can validate (from his perspective). Use your data to support your POVs - and if it doesn’t win him over, then it’s fair to accept that he’s also an intelligent person who simply views things differently than you.
If feel the reality has been this: if we don’t “overreact” (by minimizing contact), then the otherwise low death rate & health risks will become a high death rate & health risk, due to healthcare strain. However, the economic impact of this “overreaction” will certainly cause a lot of lives to get destroyed, which is also has a damning outcome (likely on health & death as well).
It’s reasonable to have a debatable perspective that the lives lost and affected by the economic fallout may be more devastating than the actual underlying illness (even with overrun healthcare).
It’s unreasonable to attack people for their thoughtful perspective, when it differs from your thoughtful perspective.
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Post by silkstone on Mar 22, 2020 19:13:22 GMT -8
I say this as an extreme “left” leaning person, who despises trump and most of what he stands for: it’s disappointing to see such personal attacks on JD for beliefs he has, which can validate (from his perspective). Use your data to support your POVs - and if it doesn’t win him over, then it’s fair to accept that he’s also an intelligent person who simply views things differently than you. If feel the reality has been this: if we don’t “overreact” (by minimizing contact), then the otherwise low death rate & health risks will become a high death rate & health risk, due to healthcare strain. However, the economic impact of this “overreaction” will certainly cause a lot of lives to get destroyed, which is also has a damning outcome (likely on health & death as well). It’s reasonable to have a debatable perspective that the lives lost and affected by the economic fallout may be more devastating than the actual underlying illness (even with overrun healthcare). It’s unreasonable to attack people for their thoughtful perspective, when it differs from your thoughtful perspective. Point taken but part of what is wrong in the world today is the idea that all points of view or ideas are somehow valid or valuable to society just because another person believes it. Let’s face it, some ideas just suck and need to be called out.
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