Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,096
|
Post by Dave on Mar 23, 2020 2:34:53 GMT -8
Good morning. In pre-market this morning, the price continues to decline, -$4.25.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Mar 23, 2020 2:52:12 GMT -8
...and hello sub $1T yet again...
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,096
|
Post by Dave on Mar 23, 2020 3:02:13 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Mar 23, 2020 4:20:10 GMT -8
Good morning. In pre-market this morning, the price continues to decline, -$4.25. and.... it's UP 4.25 as I write this. Go figure!!
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Mar 23, 2020 4:31:10 GMT -8
Dave - I/we truly appreciate you for consistently opening the thread. After since84 -- although many of us have stepped in when we could -- chinacat has been at it to always do the needful. Now you, along with him, are doing a great job in getting us started every day. Thanks so much, you two!
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Mar 23, 2020 4:39:14 GMT -8
Thank you for your kind words. I continue to be motivated by the kind contributions of those who built up this forum long before I became aware of it. Now let’s get it back on track.
|
|
|
Post by playultimate on Mar 23, 2020 5:04:59 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,096
|
Post by Dave on Mar 23, 2020 6:03:21 GMT -8
Dave - I/we truly appreciate you for consistently opening the thread. After since84 -- although many of us have stepped in when we could -- chinacat has been at it to always do the needful. Now you, along with him, are doing a great job in getting us started every day. Thanks so much, you two! Thank you, I truly appreciate your kind words. It is my privilege. . Everyone needs to hang in there, as this too shall past and be nothing but a bad memory. I miss since84 also.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Mar 23, 2020 6:45:17 GMT -8
The virus has eaten 33.33% of Apple's value.
So far, that is.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Mar 23, 2020 7:09:16 GMT -8
I feel lucky to be invested in a company that sells specialized products that people really need and love to use every day. Many businesses will not be able to recover after what is obviously going to be an economic recession of epic proportions. We have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst imo. I’m confident in apples continued viability as a company even if this economic downturn goes on for several more months. Unlike many other companies and products, Apple & the iPhone will be an integral part and critical link in the the future restoration of world economies which will begin right after we solve the coronavirus epidemic.
|
|
|
Post by ped on Mar 23, 2020 7:43:26 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Mar 23, 2020 8:02:15 GMT -8
Yep but I don’t see the point in price targets at this stage since nobody knows how negatively this recession will effect supply chains, manufacturing, product demand or sales.
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 8:24:46 GMT -8
Yep but I don’t see the point in price targets at this stage since nobody knows how negatively this recession will effect supply chains, manufacturing, product demand or sales.
absolutely!
wasn't there a time recently (6 weeks ago) when pretty much all the price targets were underwater? analysts scrambled to upgrade to $250 and $300 as AAPL shot up to $325
so now they're scrambling to downgrade, and the street low is $225... while AAPL touched $213 today
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 8:26:52 GMT -8
The virus has eaten 33.33% of Apple's value. So far, that is.
how are you holding up? i know you bought a bunch on the way down (otm calls)
any cash left for further dips?
i still bought friday, but deer-in-headlights today...
|
|
ems
Member
Posts: 97
|
Post by ems on Mar 23, 2020 8:38:58 GMT -8
Wondering if it's worth considering buying shorter-term puts like a 5/15 200p or 210p. Kind of pricey today but if there is a bump from QE and the price goes down on them, it might be a worthwhile hedge.
|
|
macster
Member
Posts: 2,642
Member is Online
|
Post by macster on Mar 23, 2020 8:43:30 GMT -8
So I'm posing a question amongst the board members. Is the dividend in danger in any fashion?
|
|
|
Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 23, 2020 8:50:59 GMT -8
bought 1k more at 221 - it is so painful, but a gift to long term thinkers. also this was a great time to add to TSLA - just one's opinion of course -
stay safe and healthy all.
Let's hope the Senate gets their act together today pronto - so many in the economy a paycheck away from making rent, mortgage, etc. and of course all of those out of work too, and companies who need to stay solvent -
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 8:52:28 GMT -8
Sigh...I remember when this board used to be about Apple/AAPL. And don't bother handing me the crap about how COVID-19 affects the markets and Apple/AAPL. Luckychoices recently started a thread dedicated to that subject. I sure hope that most of the posters are more disciplined with their investing than they are with their posts, but somehow I suspect that self-indulgence rules. chinacat, responding in the daily thread since the weekend one got some contaminated with partisan bickering (there was something about licking doorknobs? ) that i won't have enough sanitizer to clean it off there, and i gotta preserve it for the coronavirus...
We can lament the good-old days all we want... i too long for the days when we could focus on AAPL (heck even trade war debates) and for the days when my account was over 50% higher (sad quality of math... if it falls by 33.3% it will make 50% gain to make up the loss) ...but the reality is what it is now: fastest bear market ever, multi-trillion stimulus packages being discussed, market swings of 5-10% and AAPL trading 35% down from the oh-so-recent ATH along with the rest of them
so how can we make this board a better / more useful place? i would suggest 1. useful information about COVID-19 (luckychoices created a non-political thread) 2. quality news link - about AAPL if you wish, but it has to be a broader context 3. trading / investing / coping strategies
i haven't seen much at all on #3, making it seem like everyone's sitting in place waiting for the nightmare to be over (and arguing whether it's overblown, or how good trump's response is)... and no one's buying/selling anything 4aapl is about the only person i remember last week saying something about investments (which this forum was supposed to be above)
I invite everyone to share thoughts, even if you're not doing anything and waiting it out.
|
|
|
Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 23, 2020 8:53:50 GMT -8
re. the dividend - my best guess is no, but maybe no increase this year - with all of their cash and intention of going cash neutral, I find no logical reason for a suspension. In fact, with buybacks being more scrutinized by D.C., a dividend is actually a more politically expedient way to return profits/cash to shareholders, although I'm a big fan of the buy backs of the past several years, and I hope they've been accelerating that part of their program in the past weeks.
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 8:54:31 GMT -8
...heh, as soon as i posted i now see 3 AAPL-related posts in the last 15min
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 8:59:13 GMT -8
Wondering if it's worth considering buying shorter-term puts like a 5/15 200p or 210p. Kind of pricey today but if there is a bump from QE and the price goes down on them, it might be a worthwhile hedge.
buying OTM puts on AAPL and SPY (or pretty much anything) back in february would have been the genius trade in this market.... "big short" level
so now of course we can all lament having not done so
i would refrain from buying OTM puts here, though.... or OTM calls for that matter.... volatility is insanely high (VXAPL at 77, was recently over 100... it is usually 20-40) so options are expensive
i would suggest selling part of long positions (especially with losses or only small gains) and having cash handy would be a better hedge... then can buy ITM or ATM calls with that cash if the big dip really happens
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Mar 23, 2020 8:59:35 GMT -8
The virus has eaten 33.33% of Apple's value. So far, that is. how are you holding up? i know you bought a bunch on the way down (otm calls) any cash left for further dips? i still bought friday, but deer-in-headlights today...
Getting wiped out! 1.5 mill gone this month!! Took care of 3 big margin calls in these past 10 days. Have a new one of over 200k to take care of. In more appropriate words... I'M FUCKED!!!!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 23, 2020 9:03:33 GMT -8
The virus has eaten 33.33% of Apple's value. So far, that is. No it hasn't. (EDIT for clarity: AAPL is different than Apple) The virus led panic (there's other contributors, like Oil, and the peakiness even if it wasn't really frothy) has caused AAPL to lose a third of its value (from the very peak). Has Apple's underlying intrinsic value changed? If sales guesses have changed, then yes. But maybe that's a third to half of the drop, whereas the other portions might be split evenly between the drop from slightly overvalued to actual, and the drop from actual to undervalued. FWIW, there was an article this weekend on the stock app, probably by MarketWatch, that was guessing there would be a quick stock recovery, that the market would be hitting new highs in 2021. Granted analysts often have the luxury of trying to be the outlier to make a name for themselves, and their companies have the luxury of having multiple analysts which lets them have some guessing at a variety of outcomes. I will call this optimistic, though deep inside it's the outcome I am rooting for. It's going to be a tough week or two, at least. I have a hard time remembering that I might be a week or two ahead of the average joe in absorbing this mess since our non-essential businesses have been shut down for a week here in NV, and that panic at some level is still going to hit people. The Florida beach and boat crowd is a reminder of that. NY looks to be in a bad position. Hopefully other places can avoid getting to that level, which will take getting more people on board to help slow or stop this. The market will turn. Sometime. There has been pain and it's looking to continue. We'll need fear changing to hope to see that turning point hold.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Mar 23, 2020 9:04:11 GMT -8
I’m holding onto cash because I think the market’s are gonna continue to go down as long as CV cases keep rising in the U.S., unemployment keeps rising, businesses are closing and we keep getting an inadequate federal response. Confidence should slowly return when people start going back to work and businesses begin to reopen. I might start peeking out of my foxhole when those things happen. V shaped recovery is pie in the sky way of thinking imo. Apple is being drug down like most other companies.
|
|
walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
|
Post by walterwhite on Mar 23, 2020 9:12:28 GMT -8
how are you holding up? i know you bought a bunch on the way down (otm calls) any cash left for further dips? i still bought friday, but deer-in-headlights today...
Getting wiped out! 1.5 mill gone this month!! Took care of 3 big margin calls in these past 10 days. Have a new one of over 200k to take care of. In more appropriate words... I'M FUCKED!!!!
so sorry! (if it makes you feel better, i'm also down 7 figures, as i'm sure several other members of the board)
fingers crossed for a relief rally of some kind soon (just a couple green days) to at least unwind the leverage in accounts!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 23, 2020 9:20:50 GMT -8
We're having a problem of politics getting into the daily thread again.
Today, with the degradation of the weekend thread, ChinaCat again told me he is stepping down from being a moderator and taking a break. I was ready to do the same time last week, when even the Coronavirus thread degraded from a great post of links and info, into political bickering.
Clean it up! I'll be tossing off-topic posts from the daily thread into a pit somewhere, and maybe get to the virus thread, but with 3 kids at home for the foreseeable future, I have better things to do. Tomorrow, I'll start banning users. If self-quarantine isn't working, we'll escalate.
Please, self-moderate! Block users if you want. Write a message to the user, but send it to yourself instead. Or, if you absolutely have to reply in an off-topic way, put it over in the right thread in the Dungeon. Create a new one if you want.
Let's bring it back, and manage through this minefield of Market Turmoil, Pandemic Panic, Oil Ugliness, and Politics plus Political Cycle. Talk about making the whole wall of worry a reality!
|
|
|
Post by playultimate on Mar 23, 2020 9:22:10 GMT -8
I’m holding onto cash because I think the market’s are gonna continue to go down as long as CV cases keep rising in the U.S., unemployment keeps rising, businesses are closing and we keep getting an inadequate federal response. Confidence should slowly return when people start going back to work and businesses begin to reopen. I might start peeking out of my foxhole when those things happen. V shaped recovery is pie in the sky way of thinking imo. Apple is being drug down like most other companies. Tend to agree about the lack of a V-shaped recovery. However, the key to this will be how much longer the various governments keep the business/social restrictions in place. If they are lifted relatively soon, before May 1 seems to be the earliest at this point, then we might be able to quickly recover after the damage is accessed. Longer than that, I feel that too much harm may be caused and it may be a very long recovery. I suspect that the various governments (state/local) will be in a bind soon to make payroll and fund services due to the massive decreases in tax revenue. Unlike the Fed Gov, the smaller government institutions cannot print money to pay their bills. The unintended consequence of this,, I suspect, is a massive transfer of wealth; from the cash poor to the cash flush. If this continues past May 1st, blood will be in the streets as home owners and apartments dwellers face foreclosure/eviction and those with secured debt (apartment owners?) start to have problems as well.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Mar 23, 2020 10:37:11 GMT -8
OK, nice to see that someone with 1.55 million shares of AAPL isn't panicking, even after a paper loss of over 151 million from his investment in AAPL over the last month or so. Of course, he's built his position at an average price of $153/share. Do any AAPL Longs on AFB, especially ones who have been on AFB since 2012, have a lower average share price than $153? What's that? All of you? OK, carry on. How the coronavirus stock-market rout dealt Chewy’s founder a $150 million blow to his Apple holdings, for nowPortions of the article below: Ryan Cohen, founder and former chief executive of the online pet supply company Chewy, has won the sort of success that most entrepreneurs can only dream of. But since the coronavirus-induced market meltdown that began last month, he’s also experienced a hit to his net worth that would be unimaginable to the typical investor.
Cohen’s largest single investment is in Apple Inc. US:AAPL. He owns 1.55 million shares of the company and estimates that he’s its largest individual shareholder. On Feb. 12, when Apple closed at a record high of $327.20, those shares were worth more than a half a billion dollars. As of Friday’s close, the price of Apple stock was $229.24, a roughly 30% decline, leaving Cohen with a peak-to-trough paper loss of more than $151 million in that investment alone.
Since he sold the company in April 2017, Cohen has become a full-time investor, who eschews the increasingly popular strategy of index investing to put the vast majority of his wealth in a handful of stocks, a process that has given him a unique perspective on one of the most severe market slides in U.S. history.
Overall, Cohen remains up about 50% on his Apple bet, having built up his position at an average price of $153 per share, largely beginning in 2017.
Though he hasn’t taken Apple’s 30% decline as an opportunity to add to his position in the company, he remains confident that the firm will weather the coronavirus outbreak, due to its strong balance sheet and unique connection with its customers. “I like when the stock price goes down, because they buy back a lot of stock,” he said, with a lower share price making it cheaper for the company to support earnings-per-share, and place its shares at a more attractive valuation when the dust settles.
Cohen said the company has plenty of cash to endure even a severe economic downturn, noting that the firm has bought back $430 billion in stock since 2012, while only reducing its cash position by $42 billion, leaving $100 billion in the bank.
“We’ve gone through a decade of economic expansion and a bull market, and there’s been a lot of shiny objects that Apple could have bought,” he said. “But [Apple CEO] Tim Cook has been so disciplined, buying back stock and growing the business organically. He’s an unbelievable capital allocator.”
Cohen also lauds Apple’s pricing power and the stickiness of the Apple product universe, arguing that Apple’s ability to charge so much more for its smartphones and other devices than competitors shows the level of dedication its customer base of 1.5 million has to the company. He also believes that this base will increasingly use services from the company, like iCloud storage and Apple Pay, which will drive revenue growth even during times when hardware sales are weak.
“When i look at what I own, and when I look at what these businesses can produce between now and judgement day, I don’t think [coronavirus] changes the value of businesses in a meaningful way,” he said. “I don’t think Apple is worth 30% less today than a month ago.”
Skeptics of the company, including Ariel Investments’ Rupal Bhansali, disagree.
Apple “can have a hit or miss product and that has enormous implications for revenue,” she said in a Jan. 17 Barron’s interview, advising investors to short the stock. “The iPhone was an iconic revolutionary smartphone. Today it is no longer competitively advantaged and, in fact, disadvantaged on many fronts and trying to play catch up.”
She also argued that Apple is facing steep competition for services like content and music streaming. “They neither have content nor first-mover advantage,” she said.
The merits of Apple aside, Cohen is not only sticking with that company, but he’s not selling shares in other equity investments either, as he is a strong believer in the resilience of the U.S. economy. “Maximum pessimism presents the best buying opportunities for the long term investor,” Cohen said. “I’m not smart enough to pick the bottom, but we’re obviously closer.”
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
|
Post by 4aapl on Mar 23, 2020 10:50:53 GMT -8
how are you holding up? i know you bought a bunch on the way down (otm calls) any cash left for further dips? i still bought friday, but deer-in-headlights today...
Getting wiped out! 1.5 mill gone this month!! Took care of 3 big margin calls in these past 10 days. Have a new one of over 200k to take care of. In more appropriate words... I'M FUCKED!!!! Sorry to hear that. You'll get through, even if badly scarred. I think it was the second AAPL crash of 2008, with the extra volatility of options on margin in addition to shares, that I looked at the worse case scenario, of how long I could last before getting a margin call. I didn't want to have margin calls at the bottom like I did in late 2000, where among other things they sold off my one friggin share of PIXR that I was holding onto. Grrrr. So, one afternoon I sold off 5k of shares in 1k batches, just a bit above $95. It's tough looking back at that and thinking shoulda/coulda/woulda, though really most is what those shares would be worth now. There was a 7 for 1 split, so that's 35k of shares. OTOH, looking at historic prices, maybe I sold Oct 3rd at $13.58. In the next month and a half it got down to $11.31 on Nov 21, 17% lower. I'm sure I must have slept better at night, not fearing a margin call coming any day. But, that history is what helps me limit my margin use these days, while also being able to mentally absorb these big quick falls, even if I start buying in a little too early. On this fall, there are some here that have lost much more, and some that have lost much less. But really it's all percentages, as someone losing 33%, or 50% of their portfolio so quickly is going to be feeling just as much pain, no matter if that's off $50k or $50M. Good luck all! Find optimism where and when you can, but be careful with investing too early. Sometimes it's good to be a little pessimistic on that front, potentially missing the very bottom, but also potentially missing further losses. If stepping in, consider waiting, splitting the orders, or shrinking the orders. OTOH, it seems most likely that 1/3/5 years out, prices will be higher than they are now. Sometimes the long term perspective can make it all much clearer.
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Mar 23, 2020 11:20:54 GMT -8
|
|